Haves and Haves Not

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Haves and Haves Not

    It's very early yet, and who can argue with this kind of success, but something very interesting is happening to this team's OBP distribution. While the team's OBP is a not to impressive .333 ish, when we break it down player by player, we can see some massive disparities between the "haves and the have nots"...

    (15+ PAs)

    .460 Nava

    .450 Iggy

    .417 Pedey

    .412 Gomes

    .377 Victorino

    __________________________

     

    .311 Salty

    .303 Ellsbury

    .286 Napoli

     

    .233 Drew

    .222 Middlebrooks

    .222 Ross

     

     
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    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    Is that not a normal distribution at this point?

     
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    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    even though our OBP isn't where we'd like it to be we are still seeing a ton of pitches and making starters work hard.

    Player                     Pitches seen           Plate appearances                     P/PA

    Gomes                            152                               34                                   4.47

    JBJ                                 161                               38                                   4.24

    Ciriaco                             60                                 5                                   4.00

    Salty                              179                               45                                  3.98

    Drew                              119                               30                                  3.97

    Napoli                            275                               70                                   3.93

    Pedey                            280                               72                                    3.89

    Victorino                        265                               71                                   3.73

    Ellsbury                         283                               76                                    3.72

    Middlebrooks                  231                              63                                    3.67

    Ross                               64                               18                                    3.56

    Iggy                               71                               21                                    3.38

    Nava                             158                              50                                     3.16

    Carp                               20                                7                                     2.86     

    Red Sox                       2318                            580                                     4.00

     

    the sox are tied for 4th in team OBP among AL teams at .333 and rank 3rd in pitches/PA

     

    Mariners - 4.06

    Athletics - 4.02

    Red Sox - 4.00

    Astros - 3.98

    Rays - 3.97

    Twins - 3.97

    Indians - 3.96

    Tigers - 3.89

    Royals - 3.89

    Jays - 3.87

    White Sox - 3.84

    Rangers - 3.82

    Yankees - 3.79

    Orioles - 3.78

    Angels - 3.72

    _________________________________________________________________________

    In 2012, we saw 24,032 Pitches. American League average was 25,483 Pitches per team. That's 5.69% below AL average.

    If we keep the same pace in 2013 we will see 26,694 pitches.  American League + Houston saw 25,326 pitches on average over the past 3 years (2010 - 2012). A 5.40% increase over league average! and an 11% increase in pitches we saw last year. that's huge!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to mef429's comment:

    even though our OBP isn't where we'd like it to be we are still seeing a ton of pitches and making starters work hard.

    Player                     Pitches seen           Plate appearances                     P/PA

    Gomes                            152                               34                                   4.47

    JBJ                                 161                               38                                   4.24

    Ciriaco                             60                                 5                                   4.00

    Salty                              179                               45                                  3.98

    Drew                              119                               30                                  3.97

    Napoli                            275                               70                                   3.93

    Pedey                            280                               72                                    3.89

    Victorino                        265                               71                                   3.73

    Ellsbury                         283                               76                                    3.72

    Middlebrooks                  231                              63                                    3.67

    Ross                               64                               18                                    3.56

    Iggy                               71                               21                                    3.38

    Nava                             158                              50                                     3.16

    Carp                               20                                7                                     2.86     

    Red Sox                       2318                            580                                     4.00

     

    the sox are tied for 4th in team OBP among AL teams at .333 and rank 3rd in pitches/PA

     

    Mariners - 4.06

    Athletics - 4.02

    Red Sox - 4.00

    Astros - 3.98

    Rays - 3.97

    Twins - 3.97

    Indians - 3.96

    Tigers - 3.89

    Royals - 3.89

    Jays - 3.87

    White Sox - 3.84

    Rangers - 3.82

    Yankees - 3.79

    Orioles - 3.78

    Angels - 3.72

    _________________________________________________________________________

    In 2012, we saw 24,032 Pitches. American League average was 25,483 Pitches per team. That's 5.69% below AL average.

    If we keep the same pace in 2013 we will see 26,694 pitches.  American League + Houston saw 25,326 pitches on average over the past 3 years (2010 - 2012). A 5.40% increase over league average! and an 11% increase in pitches we saw last year. that's huge!



    Excellent job mef. I wasn't aware that .333 was 4th best!

    Taking a lot of pitches was. It forces the opponents to use the  something we used to do very well. It forces the opponents to use the bottom of their pen- usually the worst pitchers on the 25 man roster. 

    Conversely, our SPs seem to be going pretty deeper into a game with 100-110 pitches.

    Good to see Salty taking so many pitches. Strange to see one of our best OBP guys this year, Nava,  near the bottom of the list.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Is that not a normal distribution at this point?



    I could be wrong, but I seriously doubt it is normal to have such a wide disparity between the best 4-5 players and the bottom 5-6.

    Top 3 guys still on the 25 man roster are over .412 (a rarity in itself) and 3 below .233 (probably rare for a team ranked #4 in team OBP).

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    Excellent job mef. I wasn't aware that .333 was 4th best!

     

    Taking a lot of pitches was. It forces the opponents to use the  something we used to do very well. It forces the opponents to use the bottom of their pen- usually the worst pitchers on the 25 man roster. 

    Conversely, our SPs seem to be going pretty deeper into a game with 100-110 pitches.

    Good to see Salty taking so many pitches. Strange to see one of our best OBP guys this year, Nava,  near the bottom of the list.


    thanks moon, been using fangraphs a lot lately and finding a ton of more info on there as opposed to B-R. now if i could just figure out what some of these metrics mean!! Yell


    yes, there are some interesting conclusions that can be drawn from those numbers... especially Navas. i think thats just a product of his excellent eye. He jumps on any good pitch he sees and is putting good swings on them. who would have thunk he would be arguable the best player on the team so far this season.

    Salty saw 4.08 pitches per PA last season so he is actually down from last year (by a whopping .10 pitches!). He is seeing the same amount of Pitches/PA but i think the big difference between this year and last is that when he would get down in the count last year he would swing at pretty much anything. Resulting in a ton of Ks. This year it seems that he is laying off a lot of pitches he would normally swing at. He isn;t getting behind in the count as much which pressures the pitcher as opposed to pressuring himself thus increasing the amount of walks he is drawing.

    This also shows that even though some guys don't have a BA or OBP where we'd like them to be they are still contributing offensively.. There are such things as productive outs, a 10 pitch AB that ends in a strikeout of popout still helps your team win the game (especially if done while the starter is in the game).

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to mef429's comment:

    Excellent job mef. I wasn't aware that .333 was 4th best!

     

    Taking a lot of pitches was. It forces the opponents to use the  something we used to do very well. It forces the opponents to use the bottom of their pen- usually the worst pitchers on the 25 man roster. 

    Conversely, our SPs seem to be going pretty deeper into a game with 100-110 pitches.

    Good to see Salty taking so many pitches. Strange to see one of our best OBP guys this year, Nava,  near the bottom of the list.


    thanks moon, been using fangraphs a lot lately and finding a ton of more info on there as opposed to B-R. now if i could just figure out what some of these metrics mean!! Yell


    yes, there are some interesting conclusions that can be drawn from those numbers... especially Navas. i think thats just a product of his excellent eye. He jumps on any good pitch he sees and is putting good swings on them. who would have thunk he would be arguable the best player on the team so far this season.

    Salty saw 4.08 pitches per PA last season so he is actually down from last year (by a whopping .10 pitches!). He is seeing the same amount of Pitches/PA but i think the big difference between this year and last is that when he would get down in the count last year he would swing at pretty much anything. Resulting in a ton of Ks. This year it seems that he is laying off a lot of pitches he would normally swing at. He isn;t getting behind in the count as much which pressures the pitcher as opposed to pressuring himself thus increasing the amount of walks he is drawing.

    This also shows that even though some guys don't have a BA or OBP where we'd like them to be they are still contributing offensively.. There are such things as productive outs, a 10 pitch AB that ends in a strikeout of popout still helps your team win the game (especially if done while the starter is in the game).



    Couldn't Nava's lower pitch count with higher production just be a consequence of adjustments he's making at the plate?  Since the book on him maybe that he works the count, pitchers just threw strikes early in the count.  Now maybe he's adjusting by swinging at meatier pitches.  Cat and mouse stuff.  The basics of offense and defense and ongoing adjustments that happen in team sports.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    even though our OBP isn't where we'd like it to be we are still seeing a ton of pitches and making starters work hard.

    Player                     Pitches seen           Plate appearances                     P/PA

    Gomes                            152                               34                                   4.47

    JBJ                                 161                               38                                   4.24

    Ciriaco                             60                                 5                                   4.00

    Salty                              179                               45                                  3.98

    Drew                              119                               30                                  3.97

    Napoli                            275                               70                                   3.93

    Pedey                            280                               72                                    3.89

    Victorino                        265                               71                                   3.73

    Ellsbury                         283                               76                                    3.72

    Middlebrooks                  231                              63                                    3.67

    Ross                               64                               18                                    3.56

    Iggy                               71                               21                                    3.38

    Nava                             158                              50                                     3.16

    Carp                               20                                7                                     2.86     

    Red Sox                       2318                            580                                     4.00

     

    the sox are tied for 4th in team OBP among AL teams at .333 and rank 3rd in pitches/PA

     

    Mariners - 4.06

    Athletics - 4.02

    Red Sox - 4.00

    Astros - 3.98

    Rays - 3.97

    Twins - 3.97

    Indians - 3.96

    Tigers - 3.89

    Royals - 3.89

    Jays - 3.87

    White Sox - 3.84

    Rangers - 3.82

    Yankees - 3.79

    Orioles - 3.78

    Angels - 3.72

    _________________________________________________________________________

    In 2012, we saw 24,032 Pitches. American League average was 25,483 Pitches per team. That's 5.69% below AL average.

    If we keep the same pace in 2013 we will see 26,694 pitches.  American League + Houston saw 25,326 pitches on average over the past 3 years (2010 - 2012). A 5.40% increase over league average! and an 11% increase in pitches we saw last year. that's huge!

     



    Excellent job mef. I wasn't aware that .333 was 4th best!

     

    Taking a lot of pitches was. It forces the opponents to use the  something we used to do very well. It forces the opponents to use the bottom of their pen- usually the worst pitchers on the 25 man roster. 

    Conversely, our SPs seem to be going pretty deeper into a game with 100-110 pitches.

    Good to see Salty taking so many pitches. Strange to see one of our best OBP guys this year, Nava,  near the bottom of the list.



    During the Golden Years of Red Sox Baseball (approx. 2003 to 2008), I think that pitch count was sometimes the best barometer for prognosticating the result of the game as it was developing.  There was that and then checking who was the Sox's and their opponent's options in the bullpen.  Working counts had its limits with the Rays some seasons because of the depth of their bullpens.  I also remember Paul Byrd, with Cleveland at the time, beating the Red Sox by simply throwing strikes.  By constrast, Dice-K hurt the Red Sox by tinkering around too much, not allowing him to get deep into games and stretching the pen too far.  

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    even though our OBP isn't where we'd like it to be we are still seeing a ton of pitches and making starters work hard.

    Player                     Pitches seen           Plate appearances                     P/PA

    Gomes                            152                               34                                   4.47

    JBJ                                 161                               38                                   4.24

    Ciriaco                             60                                 5                                   4.00

    Salty                              179                               45                                  3.98

    Drew                              119                               30                                  3.97

    Napoli                            275                               70                                   3.93

    Pedey                            280                               72                                    3.89

    Victorino                        265                               71                                   3.73

    Ellsbury                         283                               76                                    3.72

    Middlebrooks                  231                              63                                    3.67

    Ross                               64                               18                                    3.56

    Iggy                               71                               21                                    3.38

    Nava                             158                              50                                     3.16

    Carp                               20                                7                                     2.86     

    Red Sox                       2318                            580                                     4.00

     

    the sox are tied for 4th in team OBP among AL teams at .333 and rank 3rd in pitches/PA

     

    Mariners - 4.06

    Athletics - 4.02

    Red Sox - 4.00

    Astros - 3.98

    Rays - 3.97

    Twins - 3.97

    Indians - 3.96

    Tigers - 3.89

    Royals - 3.89

    Jays - 3.87

    White Sox - 3.84

    Rangers - 3.82

    Yankees - 3.79

    Orioles - 3.78

    Angels - 3.72

    _________________________________________________________________________

    In 2012, we saw 24,032 Pitches. American League average was 25,483 Pitches per team. That's 5.69% below AL average.

    If we keep the same pace in 2013 we will see 26,694 pitches.  American League + Houston saw 25,326 pitches on average over the past 3 years (2010 - 2012). A 5.40% increase over league average! and an 11% increase in pitches we saw last year. that's huge!

     



    Excellent job mef. I wasn't aware that .333 was 4th best!

     

    Taking a lot of pitches was. It forces the opponents to use the  something we used to do very well. It forces the opponents to use the bottom of their pen- usually the worst pitchers on the 25 man roster. 

    Conversely, our SPs seem to be going pretty deeper into a game with 100-110 pitches.

    Good to see Salty taking so many pitches. Strange to see one of our best OBP guys this year, Nava,  near the bottom of the list.




    Maybe Nava's number would be better if being hit was taken into account?  If I'm not mistaken, I think he's been hit a few times.  If early in the count, plate appearance would count, but it would seem like less pitches were taken.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to mef429's comment:

    even though our OBP isn't where we'd like it to be we are still seeing a ton of pitches and making starters work hard.

    Player                     Pitches seen           Plate appearances                     P/PA

    Gomes                            152                               34                                   4.47

    JBJ                                 161                               38                                   4.24

    Ciriaco                             60                                 5                                   4.00

    Salty                              179                               45                                  3.98

    Drew                              119                               30                                  3.97

    Napoli                            275                               70                                   3.93

    Pedey                            280                               72                                    3.89

    Victorino                        265                               71                                   3.73

    Ellsbury                         283                               76                                    3.72

    Middlebrooks                  231                              63                                    3.67

    Ross                               64                               18                                    3.56

    Iggy                               71                               21                                    3.38

    Nava                             158                              50                                     3.16

    Carp                               20                                7                                     2.86     

    Red Sox                       2318                            580                                     4.00

     

    the sox are tied for 4th in team OBP among AL teams at .333 and rank 3rd in pitches/PA

     

    Mariners - 4.06

    Athletics - 4.02

    Red Sox - 4.00

    Astros - 3.98

    Rays - 3.97

    Twins - 3.97

    Indians - 3.96

    Tigers - 3.89

    Royals - 3.89

    Jays - 3.87

    White Sox - 3.84

    Rangers - 3.82

    Yankees - 3.79

    Orioles - 3.78

    Angels - 3.72

    _________________________________________________________________________

    In 2012, we saw 24,032 Pitches. American League average was 25,483 Pitches per team. That's 5.69% below AL average.

    If we keep the same pace in 2013 we will see 26,694 pitches.  American League + Houston saw 25,326 pitches on average over the past 3 years (2010 - 2012). A 5.40% increase over league average! and an 11% increase in pitches we saw last year. that's huge!




    Thanks for doing the leg work mef. I know on our game thread we have talked about this and Ive also mentioned to the Drew haters how many pitches Ive seen him take in one AB. Ive seen him go 8-10 a couple times and usually around 4-6. Good work!

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    It's import is the same as an 11 day sample. In a 162 game season, individual offensive aggregate stats mean nothing. 10 weeks of plate work into a player's season is the time to take them seriously.  



    +1

     
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    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    It's import is the same as an 11 day sample. In a 162 game season, individual offensive aggregate stats mean nothing. 10 weeks of plate work into a player's season is the time to take them seriously.  



    now you stress the importance of larger sample sizes but had no problem using ST stats, 2 game sample sizes and even 1 AB sample sizes.... What's up with that!! hypocrite......

     
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    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    It's very early yet, and who can argue with this kind of success, but something very interesting is happening to this team's OBP distribution. While the team's OBP is a not to impressive .333 ish, when we break it down player by player, we can see some massive disparities between the "haves and the have nots"...

    (15+ PAs)

    .460 Nava

    .450 Iggy

    .417 Pedey

    .412 Gomes

    .377 Victorino

    __________________________

     

    .311 Salty

    .303 Ellsbury

    .286 Napoli

     

    .233 Drew

    .222 Middlebrooks

    .222 Ross

     

     



    moon, I have been saying this for quite some time and hate to be repetitive.  I predicted 88 wins with this bunch if they stay healthy because of the kind of players this team has as a whole "not overall talent" or a well balanced attack like we had in 04 and 07. 

     

    Right now we are winning as a team which is the only way this club will succeed this season.  If our pitching hits a snag, or any of our key players spend an extended period of time on the DL our weaknesses will begin to shine again in a huge way. 

     
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    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Spring training isn't a couple of weeks, and I stated, over and over, that Bradley would struggle at the plate over the big sample but would adjust.

    I'm enjoying the Carp and Nava Euphoria, from an amusment point of view. Nava's a good bench role guy, Carp isn't.



    that explains the ST but not the 2 game and 1AB sample sizes you used to bash player...... so i say it again.. hypocrite.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    Maybe Nava's number would be better if being hit was taken into account?  If I'm not mistaken, I think he's been hit a few times.  If early in the count, plate appearance would count, but it would seem like less pitches were taken.

    Good point, and I wonder what counts he was hit on.

    BTW, Nava has 3 HBP: the rest of the team combined have 4.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    I was looking at stats for batting with runners in scoring position, and it would seem that we've done well generally.  Ells and Peedy are 375/333, (Napoli also hit 333) but the big surprise is who finishes over them.

    647 Victorino

    417 Nava

    400 Iggy

    Below them:

    250 Ciriaco

    125 JBJ

    111 Salty

    091 Middlebrooks

    000 Drew

    000 Gomes

    Excluding Carp, Ortiz and Ross for under 3 appearances w/RISP.

    So if we can continue to capitalize on our opportunities ... Smile

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    I was looking at stats for batting with runners in scoring position, and it would seem that we've done well generally.  Ells and Peedy are 375/333, (Napoli also hit 333) but the big surprise is who finishes over them.

    647 Victorino

    417 Nava

    400 Iggy

    Below them:

    250 Ciriaco

    125 JBJ

    111 Salty

    091 Middlebrooks

    000 Drew

    000 Gomes

    Excluding Carp, Ortiz and Ross for under 3 appearances w/RISP.

    So if we can continue to capitalize on our opportunities ... Smile

     

     



    These are all tiny sample sizes, but it is nice we are getting timely hits.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    After today's games, the disparity has not gotten much better:

    (15+ PAs)

    .441 Nava

    .432 Pedey

    .377 Victorino

    .368 Gomes

    __________________________

     

     

    .318 Ellsbury

    .304 Napoli

    .296 Salty

     

    .205 Drew

    .208 Middlebrooks

    .182 Ross

     

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    Man, that left  side of the IF can't get on base if their life depended on it!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Haves and Haves Not

    The gap narrowed as expected, last night.

     

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