Re: Haves and Haves Not
posted at 4/25/2013 8:50 PM EDT
I really don't get why so many people see Drew as such a good offensive player. Sure, as compared to most SSs over the years, he's on the plus side, but where do you get this .350ish number from?
He's only been over .333 once since his rookie season in 2006. Since 2009, he's only been over .320 once. Maybe Fenway can help some, but I'm thinking that .325 may be a stretch.
2008-2010 is what I use because 2011 and 2012 are incomplete years. .333, ,.320, .352. Its not a stretch to think he could be .340-.350. Thats why I said .350ish. I guess if Im being a little more direct I would guess .340-.350.
This is taking cherry-picking to an extreme. To take a player's 3 year span out of a hat like that is borderline absurd.
Why throw out 2007?
He wasn't hurt in 2011 until the injury and was off to a bad start. They are legitimate PAs that should be an indicator of what Drew is capable of.
You contunue to use his 2 half season in 11' and 12'...If you look in 2011 he had a very nice OBP and went into a little slump before the injury. all the way into mid june he was around .370ish and then slowly started slumping...In 2012 he was just trying to get everything back from being off for a year.
No, I looked at all his years since his rookie year and saw one season at .350...ONE! I am not cherry-picking. I'm fine with ignoring 2012.
Drew's OBP from 2007-2011 (all healthy) was .328. It's .330 from 2006-2011.
All of these time frames are just as legitimate as your chosen one, and noe indicate a strong potential for .350.
Even your cherry-picked timeframe of 2008-2010 shows just a .335 OBP. I guess that's close enough to .340, but There is just no indication that he should improve in 2013 over what he was from 3 to 5 years ago as a healthy player entering his prime.
I didnt think he would end the year at .370 in 2011, but I also figured .350ish was closer to where it would be if I had to guess since the year before he was at .352.
He had a .317 OBP in 354 PAs in 2011, He'd have to have had a .390 OBP for his last 320 PAs in 2011 to end up at .352. While that might be possible, it was highly unlikely. In 2010, he had a .356 2nd half OBP. That would have brought him to about .335 had he repeated 2010- his best career year.
So an OBP of .340-.350 is certainly a reasonable estimate.
It's a possible super high end possibility, but is not a defendable or realistic estimate.