Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    Current Standings 
    TeamW LGB162
    Yanks92 60  -
    Sox 8866  5
    Rays8567  7
    Bolded in black is division winner
    Bolded in red is the WC team
    Yellow is the only senerios, where the Sox are out…
    Green is the only senerios, where the Yanks are out
        
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays100Yanks9270Rays100Yanks9567
    Yanks010Sox 9666Yanks37Sox 8874
    Sox80Rays9567Sox08Rays9567
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays91Yanks9369Rays91Yanks9666
    Yanks19Sox 9567Yanks46Sox 8973
    Sox71Rays9468Sox17Rays9468
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays82Yanks9468Rays82Yanks9765
    Yanks28Sox 9468Yanks55Sox 9072
    Sox62Rays9369Sox26Rays9369
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays73Yanks9567Rays73Yanks9864
    Yanks37Sox 9369Yanks64Sox 9171
    Sox53Rays9270Sox35Rays9270
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays64Yanks9666Rays64Yanks9963
    Yanks46Sox 9270Yanks73Sox 9270
    Sox44Rays9171Sox44Rays9171
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays55Yanks9765Rays55Yanks10062
    Yanks55Sox 9171Yanks82Sox 9369
    Sox35Rays9072Sox53Rays9072
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays46Yanks9864Rays46Yanks10161
    Yanks64Sox 9072Yanks91Sox 9468
    Sox26Rays8973Sox62Rays8973
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays37Yanks9963Rays37Yanks10260
    Yanks73Sox 8973Yanks100Sox 9567
    Sox17Rays8874Sox71Rays8874
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays28Yanks10062Rays28Yanks10260
    Yanks82Sox 8874Yanks100Sox 9666
    Sox08Rays8775Sox80Rays8775
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays19Yanks10161Rays19Yanks10260
    Yanks91Sox 8874Yanks100Sox 9666
       Rays8676Sox80Rays8676
    RecordWLTeamWLRecordWLTeamWL
    Rays010Yanks10260Rays010Yanks10260
    Yanks100Sox 8874Yanks100Sox 9666
       Rays8577Sox80Rays8577
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from chuchos. Show chuchos's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    Sox need only 4 wins.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    Great data, but incomplete - what if the Sox go 4-4 but drop 3 to the Yankees, and the Rays go 8-2?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:
    Great data, but incomplete - what if the Sox go 4-4 but drop 3 to the Yankees, and the Rays go 8-2?
    Posted by slomag


    Thanks I thought I was missing one senerio good catch. Basically if the Sox play .500 ball losing all three to the Yanks and the Rays go 8-2 in their final 10winning 5 of 7, 6 of 7 or 7 of 7 from the Yanks were out...

    RecordWLTeamWL
    Rays82Yanks9765
    Yanks55Sox 9270
    Sox44Rays9369
    Rays82Yanks9666
    Yanks46Sox 9270
    Sox44Rays9369
    Rays82Yanks9567
    Yanks37Sox 9270
    Sox44Rays9369
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    boy, it's a good thing green denotes sarcasm...Tongue outWink
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    Hey Jete,
    Purely unintentional....

    In the end it's a three horse race, only an epic colapse by the Yanks will prevent them from making the post season.

    So after crunching the numbers... I guess I have to break a lifelong tradition and root for the boys in pinstripes.

    Hope Zac doen't see this thread...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:
    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til... : Thanks I thought I was missing one senerio good catch. Basically if the Sox play .500 ball losing all three to the Yanks and the Rays go 8-2 in their final 10 assuming they sweep the Jays and win 5 of 7, 6 of 7 or 7 of 7 from the Yanks were out... Record W L Team W L Rays 8 2 Yanks 97 65 Yanks 5 5 Sox   92 70 Sox 4 4 Rays 93 69 Rays 8 2 Yanks 96 66 Yanks 4 6 Sox   92 70 Sox 4 4 Rays 93 69 Rays 8 2 Yanks 95 67 Yanks 3 7 Sox   92 70 Sox 4 4 Rays 93 69
    Posted by Beantowne


    Great data bean, I still believe the Sox will get in.  This team really does remind me of 07 when we struggled much like we are now, got to the playoffs, barely beat the Indians then brought in the kid to replace Coco.

    We all know what happened after that
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtDawgSox. Show DirtDawgSox's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:
    Great data, but incomplete - what if the Sox go 4-4 but drop 3 to the Yankees, and the Rays go 8-2?
    Posted by slomag

    Damon said yesterday that the Rays plan on knocking out both the Sox and the Yankees. Let's hope the Yankees nail them.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    Bean, I posted this on the other post, but it bears repeating.
    Not sure I agree with your numbers because it depends on who the wins/losses are versus. Right now Yanks are 92-60, Sox 88-66 and Rays are 85-67, If the Sox win 3 against Balt and 2 gainst the yanks and go 5-3, they end up 93-69. Since the Yanks lost 2 to the Sox they won 1, so if they go 1-6 versus the rays, they end up 94-68, since the rays won 6 against the Yanks, if they win all 3 in Toronto, they end up 94-68, so thats an example of the Sox going 5-3 and not making the playoffs. AND even if they won all 5 vs Baltimore and 1 in NY and go 6-2, they end up 94-68 and since the yanks won 2 against us, if they win 1 vs tampa, they end up 95-67 and since Tampa won 6 vs NY if they win the 3 in Tor, they go 9-1 and end up 94-68 and we have a one game playoff. Not as Rosy a picture. Correct me if I misssing something

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:
    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til... : Damon said yesterday that the Rays plan on knocking out both the Sox and the Yankees. Let's hope the Yankees nail them.
    Posted by DirtDawgSox


    Damon should learn from Shefields remark in 04 after going up three games on the Sox.  Calling our team want to be's, The Yankees should be quite motivated by this.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac32. Show pinstripezac32's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    Hope Zac doen't see this thread...


    LOL  BT

    way to complicated for me

    all I can say is .....................pretty chart
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:
    Bean, I posted this on the other post, but it bears repeating. Not sure I agree with your numbers because it depends on who the wins/losses are versus. Right now Yanks are 92-60, Sox 88-66 and Rays are 85-67, If the Sox win 3 against Balt and 2 gainst the yanks and go 5-3, they end up 93-69. Since the Yanks lost 2 to the Sox they won 1, so if they go 1-6 versus the rays, they end up 94-68, since the rays won 6 against the Yanks, if they win all 3 in Toronto, they end up 94-68, so thats an example of the Sox going 5-3 and not making the playoffs. AND even if they won all 5 vs Baltimore and 1 in NY and go 6-2, they end up 94-68 and since the yanks won 2 against us, if they win 1 vs tampa, they end up 95-67 and since Tampa won 6 vs NY if they win the 3 in Tor, they go 9-1 and end up 94-68 and we have a one game playoff. Not as Rosy a picture. Correct me if I misssing something
    Posted by tomnev


    Tom,

    I think we both have it covered and your numbers above are correct. In the end the best case for us is to beat the O's and root for the Yanks to beat the Rays.
    That appears to be the best formula, basically the conclusion I arrived at in doing the math...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:
    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til... : Damon said yesterday that the Rays plan on knocking out both the Sox and the Yankees. Let's hope the Yankees nail them.
    Posted by DirtDawgSox


    I don't think that's mathematically possible, but Damon was never a MENSA spokesman.  The Yankees are holding Sabathia back for the Sox series - probably to set up his first post-season start, so the Rays will be facing Nova, Colon and two TBDs.  A Rays sweep is not out of the question.  It would sure make for a fun end to the season.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:
    Hope Zac doen't see this thread... LOL  BT way to complicated for me all I can say is .....................pretty chart
    Posted by pinstripezac32


    Go Yankees....
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:
    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til... : I don't think that's mathematically possible, but Damon was never a MENSA spokesman.  The Yankees are holding Sabathia back for the Sox series - probably to set up his first post-season start, so the Rays will be facing Nova, Colon and two TBDs.  A Rays sweep is not out of the question.  It would sure make for a fun end to the season.
    Posted by slomag


    That may be the case (skipping Sabathia) end of the day begining tonight the next four games will tell the tale...My guess is that Girardi will manage with an eye on taking the Rays out of the mix until they clinch the division. Then it's be about setting things up for the post season but still if he has a chance to elimanate the Rays...I doubt he'll run out anyone other than MO to close out games...
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    Slomag - CC is pitching Wednesday night against the Rays.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    Log:

    Red Sox (v. Yanks numbers are v. Yanks or Red Sox 2011):
     
    1. Vandenhurk ( 2011 6 IP Whip Career 1.6 plus)  v. Bedard 2011 1.22 Whip  

    Red Sox odds on favorite

    2. Hunter (2011 4.81 ERA Whip 1.30 v. Beckett

    Red Sox odds on favorite

    3. Garcia(2011 4.34 ERA home v Sox 2011 Whip 1.92) v.Lester  2-1 4.30 1.609 

    Red Sox slight favorite

    4. Burnett (2011 4.56 ERA home v. Sox 2011 Whip 1.636) v. Wakefield 6.14

    Yankees odds on favorite

    5. Nova(2011 4.42 ERA home v. Sox 2011 Whip 2.308) v.Lackey 2-1 6.5 1.556

    Toss up

    6. Hunter v. Bedard 2011 road 2.73 ERA 2011 v. O's 2.84 ERA

    Red Sox odds on favorites

    7.  Britton ( beat boston in last home start) v ? Miller 2-0 v. 2.53 ERA v. Os   

    Toss up

    8. Simon (lost to boston 4-0 4.2 IP 3 ER 2011 ERA 4.96 Whip 1.47) v  Lester if necessary

    Red Sox odds on favorites   

    Red Sox are odds on to win 4, excluding last game

    92 excluding last game

    Rays v. Yankees and Jays is odds on to be best case 91.

    Red Sox floundering around low 90's should be very embarrassing for Esptein, even though Red Sox are over 90% odds on to limp into playoffs where anything can happen

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from small-package. Show small-package's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    nice post

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    then brought in the kid to replace Coco.

    2007 ALDS v. Angels Ellsbury 0-1  Crisp 2-10 2 RBIs
    2007 ALCS v. Indians Ellsbury 2-9  .250 Crisp 3-21 game ending triangle catch

    In fact, Ellsbury hand no real impact on ALDS or ALCS. 

    Red Sox dominated 2007 WS where Lugo had a .962 OPS Crisp was 1-2 in WS. Lowell was WS MVP
     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    Bean,

    Agreed....your initial point was right on...if we dont take care of business with the O's, all the math is moot.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from SFBostonFan. Show SFBostonFan's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:
    Bean, Agreed....your initial point was right on...if we dont take care of business with the O's, all the math is moot.
    Posted by tomnev


    Amen to your comment !!!

    I say forget about conjecturing whom we wish to dominate/sweep etc. when the Yankees & Rays play eachother.  Let's just concern ourselves with winning our next 2 games for sure vs the Orioles---the way we've been playing, nothing is a slam dunk !  I recall when we lost 5 in a row earlier in the month and then beat Toronto 18-6 on Sept 13, and many comments were we had turned it around, no more hitting funk, plenty of clutch hits etc. and then we lost 5 out of 6 before we got the 18 runs again yesterday. We have been an up and down streaky team with more of the streaks going down lately.

    Again, win the next 2 as if they are must wins and then we can hope, wish, conjecture etc. that we can keep up our good record against the Yankees. They are going to want to pitch Sabathia against us 1 game because prior to his last victory over us which he did not dominate, we had beaten him 4 in a row and they'd like him to have some confidence when we meet eachother in the playoffs.
     
    They'll like to pitch AJ Burnett too who had been floundering & beat us but didn't dominate so they'd like to get his confidence up too. It'd be nice to beat both those guys in the next series. I recall they didn't dominate &, I believe, we could have won both games but, as has happened to us a lot in Sept., we couldn't get the clutch hits !

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:
    In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til... : Amen to your comment !!! I say forget about conjecturing whom we wish to dominate/sweep etc. when the Yankees & Rays play eachother.  Let's just concern ourselves with winning our next 2 games for sure vs the Orioles---the way we've been playing, nothing is a slam dunk !  I recall when we lost 5 in a row earlier in the month and then beat Toronto 18-6 on Sept 13, and many comments were we had turned it around, no more hitting funk, plenty of clutch hits etc. and then we lost 5 out of 6 before we got the 18 runs again yesterday. We have been an up and down streaky team with more of the streaks going down lately. Again, win the next 2 as if they are must wins and then we can hope, wish, conjecture etc. that we can keep up our good record against the Yankees. They are going to want to pitch Sabathia against us 1 game because prior to his last victory over us which he did not dominate, we had beaten him 4 in a row and they'd like him to have some confidence when we meet eachother in the playoffs.   They'll like to pitch AJ Burnett too who had been floundering & beat us but didn't dominate so they'd like to get his confidence up too. It'd be nice to beat both those guys in the next series. I recall they didn't dominate &, I believe, we could have won both games but, as has happened to us a lot in Sept., we couldn't get the clutch hits !
    Posted by mandobello


    One game at a time...1st pitch is moments away and we'll soon know where we stand heading into to tomorrow!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

    We stand the same going into the final 7 games.
    Good thread Bean.
    Unfortunately, logic does little to placate the board panics.
     
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