Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...

Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 2:00 PM EDT

Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 2:05 PM EDT
Sox need only 4 wins. 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 2:09 PM EDT
Great data, but incomplete  what if the Sox go 44 but drop 3 to the Yankees, and the Rays go 82? 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 2:38 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:Great data, but incomplete  what if the Sox go 44 but drop 3 to the Yankees, and the Rays go 82?
Posted by slomag
Thanks I thought I was missing one senerio good catch. Basically if the Sox play .500 ball losing all three to the Yanks and the Rays go 82 in their final 10winning 5 of 7, 6 of 7 or 7 of 7 from the Yanks were out...Record W L Team W L Rays 8 2 Yanks 97 65 Yanks 5 5 Sox 92 70 Sox 4 4 Rays 93 69 Rays 8 2 Yanks 96 66 Yanks 4 6 Sox 92 70 Sox 4 4 Rays 93 69 Rays 8 2 Yanks 95 67 Yanks 3 7 Sox 92 70 Sox 4 4 Rays 93 69 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 2:43 PM EDT
boy, it's a good thing green denotes sarcasm... 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 2:58 PM EDT
Hey Jete,
Purely unintentional....
In the end it's a three horse race, only an epic colapse by the Yanks will prevent them from making the post season.
So after crunching the numbers... I guess I have to break a lifelong tradition and root for the boys in pinstripes.
Hope Zac doen't see this thread... 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:00 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til... : Thanks I thought I was missing one senerio good catch. Basically if the Sox play .500 ball losing all three to the Yanks and the Rays go 82 in their final 10 assuming they sweep the Jays and win 5 of 7, 6 of 7 or 7 of 7 from the Yanks were out... Record W L Team W L Rays 8 2 Yanks 97 65 Yanks 5 5 Sox 92 70 Sox 4 4 Rays 93 69 Rays 8 2 Yanks 96 66 Yanks 4 6 Sox 92 70 Sox 4 4 Rays 93 69 Rays 8 2 Yanks 95 67 Yanks 3 7 Sox 92 70 Sox 4 4 Rays 93 69
Posted by Beantowne
Great data bean, I still believe the Sox will get in. This team really does remind me of 07 when we struggled much like we are now, got to the playoffs, barely beat the Indians then brought in the kid to replace Coco.
We all know what happened after that 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:01 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:Great data, but incomplete  what if the Sox go 44 but drop 3 to the Yankees, and the Rays go 82?
Posted by slomag
Damon said yesterday that the Rays plan on knocking out both the Sox and the Yankees. Let's hope the Yankees nail them. 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:05 PM EDT
Bean, I posted this on the other post, but it bears repeating.
Not sure I agree with your numbers because it depends on who the wins/losses are versus. Right now Yanks are 9260, Sox 8866 and Rays are 8567, If the Sox win 3 against Balt and 2 gainst the yanks and go 53, they end up 9369. Since the Yanks lost 2 to the Sox they won 1, so if they go 16 versus the rays, they end up 9468, since the rays won 6 against the Yanks, if they win all 3 in Toronto, they end up 9468, so thats an example of the Sox going 53 and not making the playoffs. AND even if they won all 5 vs Baltimore and 1 in NY and go 62, they end up 9468 and since the yanks won 2 against us, if they win 1 vs tampa, they end up 9567 and since Tampa won 6 vs NY if they win the 3 in Tor, they go 91 and end up 9468 and we have a one game playoff. Not as Rosy a picture. Correct me if I misssing something 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:09 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til... : Damon said yesterday that the Rays plan on knocking out both the Sox and the Yankees. Let's hope the Yankees nail them.
Posted by DirtDawgSox
Damon should learn from Shefields remark in 04 after going up three games on the Sox. Calling our team want to be's, The Yankees should be quite motivated by this. 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:12 PM EDT
Hope Zac doen't see this thread...
LOL BT
way to complicated for me
all I can say is .....................pretty chart 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:14 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:Bean, I posted this on the other post, but it bears repeating. Not sure I agree with your numbers because it depends on who the wins/losses are versus. Right now Yanks are 9260, Sox 8866 and Rays are 8567, If the Sox win 3 against Balt and 2 gainst the yanks and go 53, they end up 9369. Since the Yanks lost 2 to the Sox they won 1, so if they go 16 versus the rays, they end up 9468, since the rays won 6 against the Yanks, if they win all 3 in Toronto, they end up 9468, so thats an example of the Sox going 53 and not making the playoffs. AND even if they won all 5 vs Baltimore and 1 in NY and go 62, they end up 9468 and since the yanks won 2 against us, if they win 1 vs tampa, they end up 9567 and since Tampa won 6 vs NY if they win the 3 in Tor, they go 91 and end up 9468 and we have a one game playoff. Not as Rosy a picture. Correct me if I misssing something
Posted by tomnev
Tom,
I think we both have it covered and your numbers above are correct. In the end the best case for us is to beat the O's and root for the Yanks to beat the Rays.
That appears to be the best formula, basically the conclusion I arrived at in doing the math... 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:14 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til... : Damon said yesterday that the Rays plan on knocking out both the Sox and the Yankees. Let's hope the Yankees nail them.
Posted by DirtDawgSoxI don't think that's mathematically possible, but Damon was never a MENSA spokesman. The Yankees are holding Sabathia back for the Sox series  probably to set up his first postseason start, so the Rays will be facing Nova, Colon and two TBDs. A Rays sweep is not out of the question. It would sure make for a fun end to the season. 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:16 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:Hope Zac doen't see this thread... LOL BT way to complicated for me all I can say is .....................pretty chart
Posted by pinstripezac32
Go Yankees.... 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:24 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til... : I don't think that's mathematically possible, but Damon was never a MENSA spokesman. The Yankees are holding Sabathia back for the Sox series  probably to set up his first postseason start, so the Rays will be facing Nova, Colon and two TBDs. A Rays sweep is not out of the question. It would sure make for a fun end to the season.
Posted by slomag
That may be the case (skipping Sabathia) end of the day begining tonight the next four games will tell the tale...My guess is that Girardi will manage with an eye on taking the Rays out of the mix until they clinch the division. Then it's be about setting things up for the post season but still if he has a chance to elimanate the Rays...I doubt he'll run out anyone other than MO to close out games... 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:30 PM EDT
Slomag  CC is pitching Wednesday night against the Rays. 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 3:49 PM EDT
Log:
Red Sox (v. Yanks numbers are v. Yanks or Red Sox 2011):
1. Vandenhurk ( 2011 6 IP Whip Career 1.6 plus) v. Bedard 2011 1.22 Whip
Red Sox odds on favorite
2. Hunter (2011 4.81 ERA Whip 1.30 v. Beckett
Red Sox odds on favorite
3. Garcia(2011 4.34 ERA home v Sox 2011 Whip 1.92) v.Lester 21 4.30 1.609
Red Sox slight favorite
4. Burnett (2011 4.56 ERA home v. Sox 2011 Whip 1.636) v. Wakefield 6.14
Yankees odds on favorite
5. Nova(2011 4.42 ERA home v. Sox 2011 Whip 2.308) v.Lackey 21 6.5 1.556
Toss up
6. Hunter v. Bedard 2011 road 2.73 ERA 2011 v. O's 2.84 ERA
Red Sox odds on favorites
7. Britton ( beat boston in last home start) v ? Miller 20 v. 2.53 ERA v. Os
Toss up
8. Simon (lost to boston 40 4.2 IP 3 ER 2011 ERA 4.96 Whip 1.47) v Lester if necessary
Red Sox odds on favorites
Red Sox are odds on to win 4, excluding last game
92 excluding last game
Rays v. Yankees and Jays is odds on to be best case 91.
Red Sox floundering around low 90's should be very embarrassing for Esptein, even though Red Sox are over 90% odds on to limp into playoffs where anything can happen 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 4:01 PM EDT
nice post

Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 4:03 PM EDT
then brought in the kid to replace Coco.
2007 ALDS v. Angels Ellsbury 01 Crisp 210 2 RBIs
2007 ALCS v. Indians Ellsbury 29 .250 Crisp 321 game ending triangle catch
In fact, Ellsbury hand no real impact on ALDS or ALCS.
Red Sox dominated 2007 WS where Lugo had a .962 OPS Crisp was 12 in WS. Lowell was WS MVP 
This post has been removed.

This post has been removed.

Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 5:09 PM EDT
Bean,
Agreed....your initial point was right on...if we dont take care of business with the O's, all the math is moot. 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 6:30 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:Bean, Agreed....your initial point was right on...if we dont take care of business with the O's, all the math is moot.
Posted by tomnev
Amen to your comment !!!
I say forget about conjecturing whom we wish to dominate/sweep etc. when the Yankees & Rays play eachother. Let's just concern ourselves with winning our next 2 games for sure vs the Oriolesthe way we've been playing, nothing is a slam dunk ! I recall when we lost 5 in a row earlier in the month and then beat Toronto 186 on Sept 13, and many comments were we had turned it around, no more hitting funk, plenty of clutch hits etc. and then we lost 5 out of 6 before we got the 18 runs again yesterday. We have been an up and down streaky team with more of the streaks going down lately.
Again, win the next 2 as if they are must wins and then we can hope, wish, conjecture etc. that we can keep up our good record against the Yankees. They are going to want to pitch Sabathia against us 1 game because prior to his last victory over us which he did not dominate, we had beaten him 4 in a row and they'd like him to have some confidence when we meet eachother in the playoffs.
They'll like to pitch AJ Burnett too who had been floundering & beat us but didn't dominate so they'd like to get his confidence up too. It'd be nice to beat both those guys in the next series. I recall they didn't dominate &, I believe, we could have won both games but, as has happened to us a lot in Sept., we couldn't get the clutch hits ! 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/20/2011 7:04 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...:In Response to Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til... : Amen to your comment !!! I say forget about conjecturing whom we wish to dominate/sweep etc. when the Yankees & Rays play eachother. Let's just concern ourselves with winning our next 2 games for sure vs the Oriolesthe way we've been playing, nothing is a slam dunk ! I recall when we lost 5 in a row earlier in the month and then beat Toronto 186 on Sept 13, and many comments were we had turned it around, no more hitting funk, plenty of clutch hits etc. and then we lost 5 out of 6 before we got the 18 runs again yesterday. We have been an up and down streaky team with more of the streaks going down lately. Again, win the next 2 as if they are must wins and then we can hope, wish, conjecture etc. that we can keep up our good record against the Yankees. They are going to want to pitch Sabathia against us 1 game because prior to his last victory over us which he did not dominate, we had beaten him 4 in a row and they'd like him to have some confidence when we meet eachother in the playoffs. They'll like to pitch AJ Burnett too who had been floundering & beat us but didn't dominate so they'd like to get his confidence up too. It'd be nice to beat both those guys in the next series. I recall they didn't dominate &, I believe, we could have won both games but, as has happened to us a lot in Sept., we couldn't get the clutch hits !
Posted by mandobello
One game at a time...1st pitch is moments away and we'll soon know where we stand heading into to tomorrow! 
Re: Here's a little math with AL East Playoff permutations...It's ain't over til...
posted at 9/21/2011 12:54 AM EDT
We stand the same going into the final 7 games.
Good thread Bean.
Unfortunately, logic does little to placate the board panics.