Here's What's Next...

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    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Here's What's Next... : Here's what I think you're missing (along with everybody who loves this deal).  If this deal doesn't happen, we have no Youk on the payroll next year ($13M), no Dice-K ($10M), no Papi? ($13M), and we are already well below the luxury tax threshold.  So if this deal doesn't happen, we still have about $50M to play with in the off-season.  We still have a strong farm system to make a trade and bring in a top player.  But guys of Gonzalez's caliber are unattainable - you're not going to trade for a Miguel Cabrera or Joey Votto or an Evan Longoria.  Maybe you can get an elite player from a rebuilding team, like Ryan Braun from Milwaukee, but if you do you will have to deplete the farm, and pay him at least what Gonzalez was owed.  Will you still be cheering a salary dump if we lose Barnes, Bogaerts, Bradley & Marerro just to replace the production we p1ssed out the door?
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]


    Nope!  I didn't miss that at all.  I agree.  We were going to have "some" freed up money to work with.  Not near enough.

    You can slice this ten ways to next Sunday, & I'm still gonna like this deal.  Will we be able to get an A-Gon for next year.  Very unlikely, almost impossible.  I'm OK with that.  Getting rid of those 3 blockbuster contracts makes it worth the while.  Getting rid of Crawford in LF, plus his pathetic bat, makes it worth while.  Unloading Beckett, who had long since worn out his welcome is worth it!  A-Gon?  That's the rub.  The deal doesn't happen without throwing him in!!!!  Can we find someone to replace him at 1st?  Can we replace his bat??  Tough call, but we sure will have a ton of money to do so!  Get rid of the 2 biggest drags on the team?  Love it!!!  OK, Lackey would have been my first choice, but it should still happen.

    You can't cherry pick the points you want to focus on in this deal.  You've got to consider the deal in its totality.

    Softy can't think that big!  :)  BIG SURPRISE!!!
     
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    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]This deal was a steal even if the prospects we got were Tom & Jerry... the cartoon characters, not the ice cream men. We cut $60M from next year's budget and basically only have to replace AGon. While I am 100% against signing Hamilton or Greinke, we could sign both of them for less than $60M, trade a couple prospects for Morneau ($4M for 1 year) and have Hamilton, Greinke and Morneau instead of who we just traded away. Guys, this is a no brainer. We lost the albatross CC contract. We got rid of the guy you all have been calling the "fat-cat" (Beckett), the "untradable" Punto (as osty called him), and a top quality 1Bman who whined about having to play day-night doubleheaders and had to be consoled with a ride on a yacht and some fancy headphones. Good riddance to 3 of the 4. The loss of AGon hurts, but not as much as the relief of losing the other 3. The prospects are a bonus. Webster is a top 50-100 prospect. If we get de la Rosa later this winter (my prediction), we'll have doubled our minor league pitching prospects capable of contributing on the big club over the next 2-3 years. Loney was a salary offset and roster equalizer- nothing more. This is not a good deal- it is a great one! We were not going to win in 2013 unless 10 things all meshed at once, so this is about 2014 and beyond. I also wouldn't be surprised if we win more games in 2013 without these "big 4" than we did this year.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon, consider this - if we had traded Gonzalez without including the other contracts, the return could have been enormous in terms of young talent and prospects, and we would be $70M under the tax threshold.  We could DFA Beckett and Crawford and still have more payroll to work with than most teams!

    You don't want Hamilton.   You don't want Greinke.  Marcum, McCarthy & Peavy are all recently injured or injury risks.   What would you do with $105M that you can't do with $70M, and how long will it take?


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from rightymclefty. Show rightymclefty's posts

    Re: Here's What's Next...

    Duh! If you DFA someone, you still have to pay them!
    Amazing!
     
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    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Here's What's Next... : Moon, consider this - if we had traded Gonzalez without including the other contracts, the return could have been enormous in terms of young talent and prospects, and we would be $70M under the tax threshold.  We could DFA Beckett and Crawford and still have more payroll to work with than most teams! You don't want Hamilton.   You don't want Greinke.  Marcum, McCarthy & Peavy are all recently injured or injury risks.   What would you do with $105M that you can't do with $70M, and how long will it take?
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    You're still consistently missing the point.  We've freed up BIG $$$  to get a guy who can actually PLAY LF & HIT.  We've freed up $$$ to get a guy who can actually PITCH!

    A-Gon is gonna be tough to replace!  I sure wish we still had Youk to slot at 1st!

    It's a reset!  I'm a hell of a lot more optimistic for our future!  Big $$$  to work with too!!!!
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Here's What's Next...

    First of all, after arb signing, I figured we'd have about $28M to stay even with 2012 before the trade, so had we dealy just AGon, we'd have had about $50M to spend vs about $90M with the other 3 included. That's a huge differential. You are basically saying AGon (and Beckett) can not be replaced for $40M (the difference).

    I am saying, we may be worse with Morneau or Butler at 1B, but the savings between them and AGon could get a decent upgrade at another position that makes it essentially a wash or maybe a slight negative. However, what we can do in positive differentials with the CC and Beckett numbers will blow away any loss we have with the AGon part of the equation.


    AGon, CC, Beckett, and Punto 

    or

    Hamilton, Greinke and Morneau (with Iggy or Ciriaco instead of Punto)

    Seriously.

    (We might be able to get Morneau for the prospects we got back from LAD. He's got one year left at $14M. Hamilgton gets $27M/yr and Greinke $19M/yr= $60M, and we still have the $28M left over from before the trade to sign Papi and others or let Papi walk and sign Ross as the next DH/LF'er and a couple of decent3/4 type starters like Marcum, McCarthy or Sanchez.)

    Again, I am not saying I want to sign Hamilton or Greinke. This is just for a comparative analysis.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Here's What's Next...

    I sure wish we still had Youk to slot at 1st!

    We would not have taken the 2013 option, even if we had not traded him.

    The White Sox won't either.
     
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    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]Duh! If you DFA someone, you still have to pay them! Amazing!
    Posted by rightymclefty[/QUOTE]

    You wouldn't DFA anybody, Moron - I'm saying you could and eat their contracts it would still be a better deal for the fans.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Here's What's Next... : You wouldn't DFA anybody, Moron - I'm saying you could and eat their contracts it would still be a better deal for the fans.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    Slom,

    know when to hold an argument & when to fold.  You're way out there on this.  The only point you are close to having is that losing A-Gon hurts!!!  On that you are correct.  The rest of your argument simply doesn't wash!!!  We would still have Craw & Beckett taking up critical spots!

    No offense.  I respect your opinions!  You're just too far afield!
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Here's What's Next...

    p.s.   Don't pull a Softy, bitterly clinging to your armchair RS GM moves.

    Leave the roll of JA to Softy!  He is really good at it!  :)  You simply can't compete!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

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    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]I sure wish we still had Youk to slot at 1st! We would not have taken the 2013 option, even if we had not traded him. The White Sox won't either.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I get that Moon.  Just thinking.  I sure would like to have him right now.  We paniced on his move though.  Got NOTHING for him, & payed a hell of a lot to move him.  DUMB!  It was a tough situation, but it could have worked to keep him.  In retrospect, moving him was a horrible idea.  Easy to say now, but it simply was.  I thought so at the time.  I would have kept him, & platooned.

    I think he's got some life left in him.  He should never have played 3rd base.  His body type can't handle it.  Which means, we never should have gone after A-Gon.
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    In response to "Re: Here's What's Next...": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Here's What's Next... : Do you have a link to this assessment? Posted by hill55[/QUOTE] @pgammo on August 25th.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Here's What's Next...

    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Here's What's Next... : Slom, know when to hold an argument & when to fold.  You're way out there on this.  The only point you are close to having is that losing A-Gon hurts!!!  On that you are correct.  The rest of your argument simply doesn't wash!!!  We would still have Craw & Beckett taking up critical spots! No offense.  I respect your opinions!  You're just too far afield!
    Posted by redsoxdirtdog[/QUOTE]

    RSDD, no offense taken, but I'm willing to concede the argument if anybody on this board can come up with a feasible path to improvement.  Right now Mauro Gomez is playing first base instead of a future HOFer, and if you look at the FA possibilities in 2013, I think I stick with Gomez.  Here's $22M - replace Gonzalez.

    Crawford, in 31 games this year had a .785 OPS and was 5 for 5 in SB attempts.  He was never going to live up to his contract, but he was not holding us back.  Here's 20M and the FA list - please replace him and tell me how we do it.

    Even Beckett was not nearly as bad as he was made out to be - 1.327 WHIP under the worst pitching conditions in baseball, coming off the best year of his career.  Yeah, he lost some velocity, but had given up 4 runs or fewer in 15 of his 21 starts.  Greinke's only done that in five of his seven starts in the month since the trade!  Here's $15M - replace Beckett.  

    Just find me the path to improvement - anybody.  I don't care how much the team spends - it's not going back into my pocket either way.  Moon's the only one who has even tried, and you notice how careful he is to state that he does not recommend his own scenarios.  Why?  Because spending money on elite players means huge contracts or parting with key prospects.  So we can either take on more terrible contracts, because 80% of big FA signings (Pujols, A-Rod, Wells, Santana, Teixeira, Fielder, Lee, Howard, Soriano) are terrible contracts, or we can part with top prospects.  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Here's What's Next...

    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Here's What's Next... : RSDD, no offense taken, but I'm willing to concede the argument if anybody on this board can come up with a feasible path to improvement.  Right now Mauro Gomez is playing first base instead of a future HOFer, and if you look at the FA possibilities in 2013, I think I stick with Gomez.  Here's $22M - replace Gonzalez. Crawford, in 31 games this year had a .785 OPS and was 5 for 5 in SB attempts.  He was never going to live up to his contract, but he was not holding us back.  Here's 20M and the FA list - please replace him and tell me how we do it. Even Beckett was not nearly as bad as he was made out to be - 1.327 WHIP under the worst pitching conditions in baseball, coming off the best year of his career.  Yeah, he lost some velocity, but had given up 4 runs or fewer in 15 of his 21 starts.  Greinke's only done that in five of his seven starts in the month since the trade!  Here's $15M - replace Beckett.   Just find me the path to improvement - anybody.  I don't care how much the team spends - it's not going back into my pocket either way.  Moon's the only one who has even tried, and you notice how careful he is to state that he does not recommend his own scenarios.  Why?  Because spending money on elite players means huge contracts or parting with key prospects.  So we can either take on more terrible contracts, because 80% of big FA signings (Pujols, A-Rod, Wells, Santana, Teixeira, Fielder, Lee, Howard, Soriano) are terrible contracts, or we can part with top prospects.  
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]


    No doubt!  It's going to be tough next year too.....  I hope RS fans plan on being patient!!!  I can live with filling many spots from within.  FOR NOW!

    Middy at 3rd
    Ciriaco at SS (I love this kid!)
    Pedey at 2nd (First base????  Yikes!)

    1st base????   Hmmmmm????  Tough one!  A good 2nd teir guy will do for now!
                          * How 'bout Youk?  :)

    Salty stays at catcher & SOMEBODY WORKS ON HIS PLATE DISCIPLINE!)
        *  You bring in Tek to show him how to prepare for a game.  RESEARCH! etc.
    Ells in CF
    Ross in RF
    I don't care in LF (anybody will be an upgrade! ( On this we part ways :)
    Papi at DH if he take s $16 mil for 2 years

    SR???  oh boy!

    #1 (Probably not gonna happen for next year???)

    #2 Buch
    #3 Lester
    #4 Dubby

    #5?

    *  SR is where it really gets tricky!  We will go with a #2 as our #1.  Who?  IDK
    We pray Lester gets it back & pitches like a #2 again!!!
    Dubby has the stuff!  Needs to build stamina!  could be a good #3!
    Thank God Dice-K is gone!
    I wish Lackey was gone too!  Bucket of balls will do!
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from CA_Sox. Show CA_Sox's posts

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    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]So, I'll have to say it a little s l o w e r, so even softy can understand. Crawford gone!  Awesome!  Didn't think it could happen.  NOBODY in their right mind would take on that insane contract!!  Dodgers did.  Now we get 20+ Million per year, netting us 2 high value players & getting rid of a drag.  Still with me soft one?  NO???  Not surprised!  :) Beckett?  We still owe him what??  32 ish + million.  OK!  You say we take on 12 million.  YOU want to add that 12 million directly to the Beckett dump. OK!  That still gives us $20 to play with.  Netting us another $20 million to add at least 2 more productive players & rid ourself of a huge drag in the SR.  Got it Soft one? A-Gon?  Hate to see him go, but it sure frees up another 22+ million / year for a couple of highly productive players. Punto?  does anybody care. So add 5 or 6 productive players.  Get rid of 2 HUGE DRAGS.  Minus one great player (A-Gon). I'll take that deal every day of the week. Softy's still confused???  What were you expecting???   :)
    Posted by redsoxdirtdog[/QUOTE]

    I appreciate your analysis but can you give us some idea of these 5-6 highly productive players you are considering? 
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Here's What's Next... : RSDD, no offense taken, but I'm willing to concede the argument if anybody on this board can come up with a feasible path to improvement.  Right now Mauro Gomez is playing first base instead of a future HOFer, and if you look at the FA possibilities in 2013, I think I stick with Gomez.  Here's $22M - replace Gonzalez. Crawford, in 31 games this year had a .785 OPS and was 5 for 5 in SB attempts.  He was never going to live up to his contract, but he was not holding us back.  Here's 20M and the FA list - please replace him and tell me how we do it. Even Beckett was not nearly as bad as he was made out to be - 1.327 WHIP under the worst pitching conditions in baseball, coming off the best year of his career.  Yeah, he lost some velocity, but had given up 4 runs or fewer in 15 of his 21 starts.  Greinke's only done that in five of his seven starts in the month since the trade!  Here's $15M - replace Beckett.   Just find me the path to improvement - anybody.  I don't care how much the team spends - it's not going back into my pocket either way.  Moon's the only one who has even tried, and you notice how careful he is to state that he does not recommend his own scenarios.  Why?  Because spending money on elite players means huge contracts or parting with key prospects.  So we can either take on more terrible contracts, because 80% of big FA signings (Pujols, A-Rod, Wells, Santana, Teixeira, Fielder, Lee, Howard, Soriano) are terrible contracts, or we can part with top prospects.  
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    This is the best read yet since the trade was made. Nice Slomag.

    Yankee fans are rejoicing in this trade Tongue Out
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

      Line-Up    
           
    1. Ellsbury L CF
    2. Pedroia R 2B
    3. Ortiz L DH (1B)
    4. Middlebrooks R 3B
    5. Ross R RF
    6. Napoli R 1B (C, DH)
    7. Salty/Lavarnway S/R C (1B)
    8. Kalish L LF
    9. Iglessias R SS
           
      Rotation    
           
    1. Buck R  
    2. Lee L  
    3. Lester L  
    4. Doubrant L  
    5. Lackey R  
           
      Minor League Depth Barnes (RH)
           
      Pen    
           
    1. Aceves R Closer
    2. Bailey R Set-Up Man
    3. Padilla R RH Short Man
    4. Breslow L LH Specialist
    5. Miller L LH Specialist
    6. Hill L LH Specialist
    7. Morales L Long Man/Spot Starter
           
           
      Minor League Depth Atchinson (RH)
           
      Bench    
           
    1. Salty/Lava S/R Catcher
    2. Ciriaco R Utility/SS
    3. Aviles R Utility/SS
    4. ROOKIE ? CF'er
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from CA_Sox. Show CA_Sox's posts

    Re: Here's What's Next...

    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Here's What's Next... : RSDD, no offense taken, but I'm willing to concede the argument if anybody on this board can come up with a feasible path to improvement.  Right now Mauro Gomez is playing first base instead of a future HOFer, and if you look at the FA possibilities in 2013, I think I stick with Gomez.  Here's $22M - replace Gonzalez. Crawford, in 31 games this year had a .785 OPS and was 5 for 5 in SB attempts.  He was never going to live up to his contract, but he was not holding us back.  Here's 20M and the FA list - please replace him and tell me how we do it. Even Beckett was not nearly as bad as he was made out to be - 1.327 WHIP under the worst pitching conditions in baseball, coming off the best year of his career.  Yeah, he lost some velocity, but had given up 4 runs or fewer in 15 of his 21 starts.  Greinke's only done that in five of his seven starts in the month since the trade!  Here's $15M - replace Beckett.   Just find me the path to improvement - anybody.  I don't care how much the team spends - it's not going back into my pocket either way.  Moon's the only one who has even tried, and you notice how careful he is to state that he does not recommend his own scenarios.  Why?  Because spending money on elite players means huge contracts or parting with key prospects.  So we can either take on more terrible contracts, because 80% of big FA signings (Pujols, A-Rod, Wells, Santana, Teixeira, Fielder, Lee, Howard, Soriano) are terrible contracts, or we can part with top prospects.  
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    I have been asking the same thing... fine that the Sox have unloaded all these contracts but tell us who they are going to get to make this team a playoff contender.... I am pretty sure the Sox will struggle for at least the next 3 years unless they want to spend big bucks...and even if they are willing to do so, why would free agents want to play in Boston? those days appear to be gone...
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    What is next is a long way back to a 1st place team. I belive that they did the right thing in blowing up this team but it will be a long time until they are good again. These prospects need time.  We will see if ownership lowers the price at the gates. Not going to happen. 
     
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    Come on.......Beckett was toast.....CC was useless..........We need to replace Gonzo (Mike Napoli and resing Ortiz)......we replace Beckett via a trade (Cliff Lee is available)........and we replace CC in our sleep (resign Cody Ross and bring up one of the kids who should be ready by now)..the net savings is enormous..even Lee is only for 3 more years..........They will be good next year just you wait
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    and ask yourself this - how good were they over the last 2 years when all 3 guys were here???????  how'd that work out?  did you think if they stayed the course all of a sudden they'd start winning???
     
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    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]What is next is a long way back to a 1st place team. I belive that they did the right thing in blowing up this team but it will be a long time until they are good again. These prospects need time.  We will see if ownership lowers the price at the gates. Not going to happen. 
    Posted by dosul[/QUOTE]
    Boston Globe columnist Chad Finn expressed similar sentiments:

    http://www.boston.com/sports/touching_all_the_bases/2012/08/adrian_gonzalez_josh_beckett_r.html
     
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    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Here's What's Next... : Boston Globe columnist Chad Finn expressed similar sentiments: http://www.boston.com/sports/touching_all_the_bases/2012/08/adrian_gonzalez_josh_beckett_r.html
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Not true.  They are a few key pieces and a few complimentary pieces shy....Most of which CAN be fullfilled internally and they have the $ to go outside as well.

    Chad must have never heard of the 1991 Twins or even the 2012 Dodgers.....Or the 2008 Rays.........It is possible to turn things around in a season or 2.  Esp if you have the resources....Even The 2008 yankees were a mess than then half a billion dollars later they were about to buy a championship.......
     
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    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Here's What's Next... : Not true.  They are a few key pieces and a few complimentary pieces shy....Most of which CAN be fullfilled internally and they have the $ to go outside as well. Chad must have never heard of the 1991 Twins or even the 2012 Dodgers.....Or the 2008 Rays.........It is possible to turn things around in a season or 2.  Esp if you have the resources....Even The 2008 yankees were a mess than then half a billion dollars later they were about to buy a championship.......
    Posted by andrewmitch[/QUOTE]
    Despite their wild spending, the 2012 Dodgers would not be in the postseason if the season ended today.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

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    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]  Line-Up             1. Ellsbury L CF 2. Pedroia R 2B 3. Ortiz L DH (1B) 4. Middlebrooks R 3B 5. Ross R RF 6. Napoli R 1B (C, DH) 7. Salty/Lavarnway S/R C (1B) 8. Kalish L LF 9. Iglessias R SS           Rotation             1. Buck R   2. Lee L   3. Lester L   4. Doubrant L   5. Lackey R             Minor League Depth Barnes (RH)           Pen             1. Aceves R Closer 2. Bailey R Set-Up Man 3. Padilla R RH Short Man 4. Breslow L LH Specialist 5. Miller L LH Specialist 6. Hill L LH Specialist 7. Morales L Long Man/Spot Starter                   Minor League Depth Atchinson (RH)           Bench             1. Salty/Lava S/R Catcher 2. Ciriaco R Utility/SS 3. Aviles R Utility/SS 4. ROOKIE ? CF'er
    Posted by andrewmitch[/QUOTE]

    Lee is definitely an improvement over Beckett, but we'd be paying $100M for years 34 - 37.  Assuming full health and no decline, we're getting even value, but what are the chances of that?  It also makes for a lefty-heavy rotation in a park that calls Fenway its home. 

    Napoli isn't close to Gonzalez offensively or defensively.  And Kalish probably needs to show something more at AAA before you pencil him into the starting lineup.

    This would add about $40M to the payroll, which is a little less than what we had before. But the team is not nearly as talented.  I give it 3 months before you're complaining about these contracts.

     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    In Response to Re: Here's What's Next...:
    [QUOTE]Come on.......Beckett was toast.....CC was useless..........We need to replace Gonzo (Mike Napoli and resing Ortiz)......we replace Beckett via a trade (Cliff Lee is available)........and we replace CC in our sleep (resign Cody Ross and bring up one of the kids who should be ready by now)..the net savings is enormous..even Lee is only for 3 more years..........They will be good next year just you wait
    Posted by andrewmitch[/QUOTE]

    This is very strange logic.  Replace Gonzalez with Mike Napoli and Ortiz, a player already on the roster?  Replace Crawford by re-signing a player currently in the lineup?

    Lost in the argument that we haven't been a playoff team the last three years is the fact that we've had about 10 times the number of injuries of the next closest team.  How about we solve that problem before we start shipping out every player on the team?

     

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