Here's What's Next...

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    Re: Here's What's Next...


    We don't need to free up Ellsbury's $10M to afford Upton. We have about $98M to spend this winter to be even with 2012 budget.

    Yes, a 3-way deal involving Ellsbury going to another team, and us getting Upton is a possibility, but trading Ells would not be about saving money, but more about getting a longer term player with higher upside as Upton is just beginning to enter prime.
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    In response to Here's What's Next...:

    There is no reason to pay Ellsbury 10 million in 2013. His draft compesnation should be used in trade to reduce the cost in young talent traded.

    His value right now isnt as high as it could be in July 2013. an outfiels of Pods/Ross LF, Ellsbury CF, and Upton RF would be pretty potient.

    There is no reason to spend money on players who don't bring more value to the table than one year contracts to Pods, Sweeney and Ross, with Bradley, Jr. and Nava in AAA.

    Bradley Jr. was just promoted to AA and suffered an ankle injury recently. If he continues his progression, he will be promoted to AAA in 2013 sometime

    There is no reason to spend anything close to 98 million for 2013. Other than acquiring Upton, 9.75 million for 2013, and VMart at 13 million for 2013, Gomez, Ciriaco and Iglesas should round out the IF. If Ortiz can't pass the physical to deliver on a one year 8 to 10M deal with a team option 2M buyout for year two, VMart can rotate with others in the DH slot.

    So, you want to give a proven long time Boston DH 8-10mm but are willing to give VMart 25mm over the next 2 yrs, 13mm/2013 12mm/2014 to be the DH? Papi has much better numbers than VMart who was injured and didnt play in 2012...

    Now that Beckett is goine, I expect Buch and Lester to pitch well in 2013. Lackey should not be written off at his low point. Doubrant should improve for 2013. Tazawa and Morales should round out the initial bottom of the rotation slot, with about 10 million budgeted for low single digit one year contract offers to veteran starting pitchers. There's nothing out there but expensive lands minds.

    amazingly, I agree with all of this.

    The Red Sox need to approach 2013 with a team identity of a more consistent and fundamentally sound offense, and an outstanding defensive team. They need to take on a professional work ethic to fitness and player self-policing accountability to one another, with a relentess approach based in respect for playing each game. With no player having a long term contract, each player properly has the incentive to be individually accountable for their work production.

    It may be necessary to trade another veteran or two, in order to rid the team of the losing identity it has been mired in for many years.

    Agree.

    Whether ownership is going to follow-up this Chapter 11 with a sale mode shoudln't matter, as the budget should never be more than about 100 to 140 million with no large long term contracts to any player 30 years old or more. The drug testing program, as weak as it is, is culling out the animal hormone abusers who would never produce at a high level past the early thirties. Until the fans stop adopting player farvorites that seduces management to retain players who do not form a winning roster construction, it's going to take smarter ownership and management to restore a winning baseball team.

    apparently you still dont understand that chapter 11 is bankruptcy, which does not, and will never even collide in the same sentence with the name John Henry. They were able to pay the players, but realized they werent wise investments. Thats NOT chapter 11. If JH wanted the payroll to exceed 200mm, he could have easily allowed it. They made some bad decisions and corrected them by ridding themselves of the bad deals. While Gonzo was a productive player, the more we read his comments the more that we realize he really wasnt a good fit with this team and city. he was the player that allowed this once in a lifetime deal to actually happen.

    For the last 5 years, the Red Sox have had as many as a half a dozen active roster sports wasted on players who don't fit and/or don't produce in the roles they are given. That practice needs to end, with fans having zero
    influence on who goes on the roster.

    Agree.

      

     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...


    There is no reason to pay Ellsbury 10 million in 2013. His draft compesnation should be used in trade to reduce the cost in young talent traded.

    I agree, but you were saying "...getting rid of Ells and his 10 million for 2013 is essential to clearing the way for J. Upton". The $10M is not an essential part of getting Upton. That is what I was responding to. Yes, I realize the huge value of trading Ellsbury while he still has the value-added comp pick attached.

     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    I like the idea of getting VMart back - if the Tigers miss the post-season this year it might not even cost anything.  They'll probably just shed salary to go after another incredibly stupid Free Agent.

    I've said on other threads, I'd rather see the Sox go after Carlos Gonzalez than Justin Upton - he seems like he would be attainable, and is equal in talent and seemingly a better team-mate.  Either guy is going to be a prospect haul - you might even be able to leverage the fact that if you don't land Gonzalez, you're going after Upton.  Colorado's only hope against LA and SF is to rebuild, and right now AZ has far better young talent - the idea of getting five more solid prospects to add to their system might be enough to tip the scales.

    Assuming we trade Ellsbury to get the prospects to complete the deal, how does this look ...

    Kalish / Podsednik / Bradley CF
    Pedroia 2B
    Gonzalez LF / RF
    VMart 1B
    Ortiz DH
    Middlebrooks 3B
    Ross / Sweeney LF / RF
    Salty / Lavarnway C
    Iglesias SS

    Maybe we trade Doubront, and pick up Marcum or Colby Lewis
    Buchholz
    Lester
    Marcum
    Lackey
    Tazawa / Morales / De La Rosa

    Marcum is probably $15M, CarGo $14M, VMart $12.5M, Papi -5M from this year, Ells -8M, and let Dice-K walk -10M.

    This would be a team I could get excited about, a young team with key veterans, for $30M less than the old team.  I can't imagine holding on to Barnes or Bogaerts though - for either Upton or Gonzalez.

     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    I'd say the value of Upton & Ellsbury is way more than $20M for just 2013, but to me the value we can get in return for Ellsbury would extend beyongd 2013, and to me, there in lies the true value of dealing him. Whatever we get back in trade, and I'm not saying just hand him away to the highest bidder if the return is not equal, will be better than the pressumed value a sandwich pick and one sketchy year projection of what Ellsbury will bring to a season that seems all but lost before it starts.
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    The more people that hate me, the more effective I am at being brutally honest. 

    Very telling.

    My Wakefield comments were probably over the top, but I believed for years that he never earned his active roster spot and I saw no end in sight to those contracts. When you go to professional baseball games, its routine to hear "you bum!". Its part of baseball chatter. That people get offended by player criticism chatter is putting a game on a level it doesn't need to be.

    Of course name-calling and getting emotional about a baseball player is part of the tradition of baseball. I even got a good chuckle over your "flopping around the mound" comment when he was playing hurt, but what got to me most was your distortion of the facts and constant moving of th goalpost. You started by saying he walked to many people, when he had one of the lowest BB/9 rates among all our starters. You used to value WHIP as highly as ERA, until I showed how Wake's WHIP compared to other Sox starters and league 3-4-5 starters. Thn, it was all about being over 5.00 for 2+ years. "Nobody" keeps a 5.00+ ERA pitcher on their staff, you said. Not true. Nearly every AL championship team back to 2003 had  1 or more 5.00+ ERA pitchers in their rotation. Now, you say our starting pitching is fine, yet their combined ERA this year is 4.94. Your criteria is ever shifting to suit your position.

    You contually bash "union slugs", but Tim didn't even have an agent. You may not think he earned his money or deserved a roster slot, but he was never the worst oof the 12 pitchers on the staff, and the contratc he signed was one of the most "team-friendly" deals I've seen. An argument can certainly be made that he didn't quite earn his money the last tear or two, but for years, like it or not, he pitched better than market value compared to what he got paid. He never got paid more than $4.7M. He made only $4M after going 17-12, $4M after finishing 6th in WHIP at 1.182, $4M after finishing 3rd in ERA+ at 162 and 3rd in WHIP at 1.053. 

    Although playing half his games in Fenway (remember how you use the park to discount our team ERA this year), faced good hitting teams more than the average pitcher, Wake's numbers compare closest to Livian Hernandez who made over $5M five times and $8M twice after going 9-12 5.44 in 2009 and 13-11 6.05 in 2008. Baseball reference also has Wake closely related to:
    Chuck Finley, Kenny Rogers, Doyle Alexander, Mike Torrez, and Joe Neikro.

    You expected #1-2  numbers from our #5-6 starter, but now want us to offer washed out starters $1M to be our bottom rotation starters. Don't expect much better than 5.50.

     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    Any rumors on last minute waiver deals?
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    When's the hour cut off for waiver deals?
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    I was a bit surprised their were no waiver deals at the last minute.
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    In response to moonslav59 comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Other than Papi, we should look to trade all our players who will be Free Agents in 2013 if we can get a worthwhile prospect:

      Ross Padilla Loney Cook Pods

    [/QUOTE]

    moon,

    I think Ross, if others don't try and over pay him for a career year in Fenway would be worth keeping along with Pod and/or Loney if the price is right just for depth.  Papi is going to be tough to retain in my opinion.  He either wants to play here or not but I do feel we will and should offer him a nice two year plus a third year team option. 

     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    We could have still traded Ross on a waiver deal for a decent prospect, then signed him this winter.
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    In response to moonslav59 comment:

    We could have still traded Ross on a waiver deal for a decent prospect, then signed him this winter.



    True, could have been a good move.
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    Oh well, it is about time to start a 2012 Realistic thread. Perhaps I should really start a 2014 thread, since 2013 will unmistakenly be a "bridge year".

    Unless we totally load up on FAs and trade the farm away for high impact players, there's little chance we can win next year. I guess maybe Bradley and Brentz could be the next Lynn & Rice and lead us to a strong showing, but I really think every decision we make should be geared more towards 2014 and beyond than 2013.

    That means we need to decide if players who will be FAs after 2013 are worth extending. If not, they should be traded this winter.
    Ellsbury
    Salty
    Breslow
    Sweeney
    R Hill
    I don't see anyone on this list who is a must extend, but I'd consider Salty and Breslow at a reasonable rate. Ellsbury will want too much, and his value to another team should be higher than to us, since we have little chance in 2013. The comp draft pick attached to his value is only realized if he is traded before the season begins, so it should be this winter or never.

     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    I'll be as honest as I've always been...I truly believe no current free agents will want to come to his cesspool of an organization. It's going to have to be an entire ownership change before players come. I just don't think that the "money" will entice guys to come to the Media Capitol of Baseball....It's become a circus and who wants to be part of that? No one.
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    In response to dannycater's comment:

    I'll be as honest as I've always been...I truly believe no current free agents will want to come to his cesspool of an organization. It's going to have to be an entire ownership change before players come. I just don't think that the "money" will entice guys to come to the Media Capitol of Baseball....It's become a circus and who wants to be part of that? No one.



    danny, I feel most of the "cesspool" , in terms of players feeling welcome or not, is caused by the overzealous media and hypercritical fans. Sure, some things said and done by the manger, GM, and upper management have not helped, but changing owners and management will not change the frenzy this media has when looking for a scoop. 

    I think most players will take the top dollar, unless the offers are so close that it hardly matters. In hindsight, most big named FAs we have signed turned out to be paid way higher than the next lower offer reproted (see Drew, Lackey, CC...). I still think many players love Fenway, especially RH'd power hitters and LH'd singles hitters. make the offer, and they will come. Since this winter does not have any big ticket FAs I care to overpay for, that gives us a year to rebuild our image, and I think when players see the youth movement that will begin next year, they will want to play here in 2014. Until then, we need to make a few strategic low to mid-level signings and trades that build for 2014 and beyond. 

    There are many teams looking to contend next year that have serious issues at positions  we have depth or free-agents-to be. We need to explore every option on dealing our short-term contract players and our blocked prospects. Some tough choices have to be made. We may very likely have to trade Salty or Lava, Iggy or Bogaerts, Ellsbury and Aviles, Cecchini (or move him to 1B), and maybe Sweeney or Nava. I'd hate to trade Bradley or barnes, or Bogaerts for that matter, but if the right young stud starter becomes available, that hard choice might have to be made. Add a big named player here and there this winter (Shields or Upton?) and next deadline, come on strong next second half, and we'll have players banging on our door to play here earlier than many may think.
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    Bogaerts is a guy you hold on to--he can really be a SS of worth later on. A for everyone else, you can definitely put them all on the trading block. Two guys on the current roster I think who should stick around for the rehaul are Pedroia and Buchholz. Everyone else can leave, although when I see Lester throw like he did in the last 5 inn of the Angels game, I keep thinking he will snap out of it and go back to being a 60-game over .500 SP.
     
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    Re: Here's What's Next...

    I still like Salty, but I get the feeling he is going to be trade bait at some point.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Here's What's Next...

    danny, I'd love for us to hold onto Bogaerts, Bradley and Barnes, but we may have to part with one or two to get a top of the line starter who is under team control for many years. IMO, no player is "untouchable", but here's my rough dozen list of who I think we should hold onto as best we can:

    1) Bradley

    2) Bogaerts
    3) Barnes
    4) Buchholtz
    5) Brentz
    6) Lester
    7) Pedey
    8) Morales
    9) Webster
    10) Lava
    11) Swihart
    12) Owens

    I have some players listed lower due to depth we have at their position. I'd have Cecchini in my top dozen list, but unless we move him to 1B, he is blocked by Middlebrooks. My sleeper: Travis Shaw.

    Prime trade candidates:
    Ellsbury (1 year remaining on contract- little hope for us in 2013 anyways.)
    Salty  (We have Lava & Swihart.)
    Aviles (We have Iggy, Ciriaco, Bogaerts, and several other top SS prospects.)
    Doubront (We have enough 4/5 slot type starters- we need to upgrade.)
    Sweeney (We would have traded him in July had he not punched a wall. FA in '14.)
    Aceves (Attitude issues.)
    Breslow & Hill (FAs in 2014.)
    Atchison (Under arb control for 5 more years, but his age is a key factor.)
    Lackey & Bard (They have to prove they can still perform before trading them.)
    Melancon (See Lackey & Bard.)

    We may have just begun to see a total make-over of the 2013 team. I could easily see most of the guys above gone by next trade deadline.



     

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