At this point in the season, I wouldn't give more the a first round draft pick, and only then if I could sign him to an extension now.

Otherwise, he's basically a one-year rental.

Now, at the trading deadline, if I'm in the hunt for a WS (not just the post season), then I'd be willing to give a little more. 

In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:

As if there's a difference.

I think id Jake hits like 2011...He will be way out of the Sox intended paylevel, possible gettng that 5 for 100 or 6 for 120 deal mentioned earlier.  If he gets hurt again he makes squat...maybe 2 for 10 or 3 for 18.  The Sox might dumpster dive on him next year if he gets hurt again.  If he stays healthy and has a simply average year of 275, 12, 70 and 85 runs...maybe 750 ops...then he will get a very manageable 4 for 40 deal.  The Sox would likely retain him at that.  Rarely will a player have as much riding on him as Jake does this year.  5-6m per year for 2-3 years, or 20m for 5-6 years...Wow.  I bet he is in shape this spring for sure.

In response to softlaw2's comment:

 

Mariners have serious problems, which will be compounded in a few short years with the accounts payable to Fernando, I mean Felix. Ellsbury is from that area and might give you a home team discount. Regardless, since you are quick to provide names and monetary amounts regarding other player movement matters involving the Red Sox, please state what you, personally, would be willing to trade for and/or pay for Ellsbury's FA contract years.

Thank you.

 

This is probably true with the Mariners I feel they should have traded Felix for long term offense instead of signing him to big bucks.  With youngsters like Hultzen, Paxton and Walker they look decent in the pitching department. 

 

I think the Mariners may have blown their best opportunity to finally build a well rounded team that could be more competitive in the future.

In response to craze4sox's comment:

What would have been the appropriate return in a trade of Felix Hernandez?

The Seattle lineup last season featured four young hitters who were former Baseball America Top 30 prospects: Jesus Montero peaked at No. 3 in 2011, Dustin Ackley at No. 11 in 2010, Justin Smoak at No. 13 in 2010 and Michael Saunders at No. 30 in 2010.

The Mariners "look decent in the pitching department," but the brutal hitting environment at Safeco Field has obscured how good the young hitters are. Whimsically, I could see the M's converting infield prospects Nick Franklin and Stefen Romero to the outfield for this hypothetical Opening Day 2014 lineup with no hitter over 27 years of age:

C Mike Zunino

1B Justin Smoak

2B Dustin Ackley

3B Kyle Seager

SS Brad Miller

RF Stefen Romero

CF Michael Saunders

LF Nick Franklin

DH Jesus Montero

That lineup would include six former BA Top 55 prospects*, a never-ranked thirdbaseman who posted a WAR of 3.6 as a 24-year-old,  and two former college infielders who have posted these lines over their first two professional seasons:

Miller 702 PA, .341/.414/.513/.927

Romero 994 PA, .318/.368/.534/.901

* Zunino at No. 17 in 2013 and Franklin at No. 53 in 2011

In response to hill55's comment:

Point well taken Hill and if it continues great for them.  I just don't see the Mariners having must leverage outside of the farm from this point on and we already know Felix "as great as he is" won't get them to the post season alone.  I will however give them a lot of credit if it does pan out because if three or four of their young pitchers turn out half as good as some predict they may not need a lot of runs.

I still would have gone for the works from some team instead of signing him to that kind of contract but at least they have a medical clause built in.

There is a problem with the conversation, for decades, is always "big park makes our young hitters look worse than they really are".

In response to softlaw2's comment:

you don't agree with that??

after all your rants talking about "park factor"? Look at beltres numbers in seattle, now look at his numbers when he moved to Bos/TX (2 hitter friendly parks).

In response to DirtyWaterLover's comment:

You can't trade draft picks in baseball.

Seattle has the $$ to not worry about the new FH contract. The Owner is worth 2.5 billion...I dont think a payroll exceeding 100M will be an issue. He just needs to put a better team together.

I could care less where their prospects rank. Its what they do in MLB that counts. They need to not trade the good ones away ie; Adam Jones...

Now, If a couple of their pitching prospects work out and they can trade a couple pieces for 1 or 2 LEGIT MLB bats, they will be right in the thick of things...History says different, but its still a realistic possibility...

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In response to softlaw2's comment:

It's not just the Mariners hitters who have borne the brunt of the harsh hitting environment at Safeco Field.

Last season opposing hitters posted a .229/.288/.338/.626 line in 3,004 plate appearances against Seattle pitchers at Safeco Field and a .266/.328/.449/.777 line in 3,058 plate appearances against Seattle pitchers on the opponents' home fields.

The big samples don't lie.

In response to hill55's comment:

Thats why I suggested a true LEGIT bat if they can talk one into playing in seattle...They certainly have the $$ to talk someone into it.

FTR, I wish they brought the fences in just a bit more. With the damp thick air in seattle I wouldve thought they would. Although its better than nothing...

In response to southpaw777's comment:

"true LEGIT bats" can struggle at Safeco Field, as these career lines suggest:

Josh Hamilton 148 PA, .224/.338/.408/.746

Jacoby Ellsbury 66 PA, .233/.292/.333/.626

Dustin Pedroia 122 PA, .255/.347/.358/.706

There are four possible scenarios with JE in 2013:

(1) The Sox are in contention, and JE is a key part -- he stays until FA

(2) The Sox are in contetion, and JE is not contributing -- he'll be packaged for a relief pitcher

(3) The Sox are out, and JE is having a great year -- he'll be traded to a contender for prospects

(4) The Sox are out and JE is part of the problem -- he'll probably be around to FA, especially if he might bring a draft pick.

 

As far as what he'll command in FA, he's going to get big money for short years.  Teams like the potential for a stellar performance, but their wary of the inconsistency.  I say no more than 80 million guaranteed.  Probably over 3-5 years.  I could see 3-$60m, 4-$80m, or 5-$80m.  I can't see anything over five years.  If his 2013 is mediocre, he won't get more than 3-4 years, again for high dollars.

 

Some teams might get creative with opt-out clauses, or vesting options, raising the potential earnings.  But the guarantee won't be more than 80m or 5 years.