Hill's beloved Mariners cannot keep a Manager...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Hill's beloved Mariners cannot keep a Manager...

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    The Mariners have absolutely zero chance of signing Cano. To think otherwise is to be extremely naive. 

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     



    30M 10 years....my guess is that the chances are pretty good that he'd listen...

     



    Anybody would listen to that. It will not happen. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Hill's beloved Mariners cannot keep a Manager...

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    The Mariners have absolutely zero chance of signing Cano. To think otherwise is to be extremely naive. 

    Stabbed by Foulke.



    And they shouldn't, it would be nonsense.....unless, maybe, they were a team on the cusp of truly competing, specifically needed a 2B-man, needed a big bat, and had the huge budget space required to afford him.  

    But those extreme circumstances are not just unlikely specifically, they are horse-and-buggy thinking generally.  

    If I were Ben Cherington would I try to sign Cano for $1/year for 6 years?  Of course. Would I agree to sign him for $50m/year for 6 years?  Of course not.

    How many effink times do I have to repeat that:

    October 30, 2003, 9:52 PM ET ESPN.com news services

    BOSTON -- The Boston Red Sox placed All-Star slugger Manny Ramirez on irrevocable waivers Wednesday.

    The move means any major league team can have Ramirez -- if it is willing to pay his salary. The outfielder has five years and $101.5 million remaining on a $160 million, eight-year contract, and would get an extra $1 million if he switches teams. He is scheduled to make $20.5 million next season.

    ===========================================

    In other words, none of the other 29 MLB teams were willing to take him for free! (I think the waiver price was then, and remains, $100k...but that's effectively free in modern baseball).

    In truth, I'd been saying to my mates for the previous couple of years before 2003 that he was "worth less than nothing because we'd have to pay someone to take him away".  And they laughed at me......oh, how I gloated when I was "proven" right.  And the Sox are so lucky no team was willing to take Manny away for free.  

    I sort of got it but didn't really appreciate before '83/'84, that, IMO, Manny was immune to the world around him.  And that such a machine, a metronome, is exactly the sort of character to build around.

    Look at his career splits from any perspective.....they are comically consistent.  IMO, probably the greatest FA contract ever.

    But Manny was an extreme exception to the rule that says "overpay for genius if a) they play a premium postion, or b) you think they have an elite talent."

     

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Hill's beloved Mariners cannot keep a Manager...

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

     

     

    The Mariners have absolutely zero chance of signing Cano. To think otherwise is to be extremely naive. 

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     

     



    30M 10 years....my guess is that the chances are pretty good that he'd listen...

     

     

     



    Anybody would listen to that. It will not happen. 

     



    I agree. My greater point is that if the mariners want him to sign with them they have to step up and make an offer he can't refuse. Though given their current ownership quandaries it is unlikely they make any significant free agent offers.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Hill's beloved Mariners cannot keep a Manager...

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    Hill55,

    Respectfully, your reaching for straws trying to make a case for Ackley. The stats your using above are heavily weighted by his hot streak in August. Where is ops was north of 1.000 however he came back to earth in September with an ops of 673 which is slightly higher than his career norm of 622...Franklin is a young hitter and you're continued use of Middlebrooks as a reference seems disingenuous. In the case of Ackley you chose numbers that would make him look good and in the case of Franklin instead of using the same time frame you decided to use the entire season. Because his second half was horrible, his first half wasn't much better,  which we both know that you chose that time frame because it weights Middlebrooks numbers to enhance the arguments in Franklins favor, had you instead used his second half splits...post All Star the numbers are not flattering...again he's a good looking young player, but to suggest that because of him the M's don't need a hitter of Cano's stature is silly...

    In the end the intent of my analysis was to show that while the M's do have some good young ball players they lack impact middle of the order hitters...of which none of the current players on the big league roster project to be nor have the M's drafted and developed a player that fits that profile in more than two decades,( since Arod and Griffey came up through the system). a profile of player they tried to acquire with aquisitions of Smoak and Montero, however both have fallen short and given that Ackley never became the perrenial 300 hitter they thought that drafted. The mariners lineup has a huge hole in the middle of it...That's not to suggest that they can't all be solid big league hitters. The need is greater than to have a couple of 750 ish ops guys in the middle of the order with a below average defensive centerfielder who might eclispe 700.  

    Which is why I think they'd be foolish not to make a run at Cano who might be the best hitter to come to market since Bonds. Perhaps it's premature to make such an investment. Short of spending money the rebuild will continue and come 2015 or 2016 they might then be in position to rebuild again.

    Beantowne, it is curious that you would be critical of my use of partial-season stats for Dustin Ackley and then turn around and insist on partial-season stats for Nick Franklin.

    I acknowledged that the Mariners probably were tempted to "cut bait" with Ackley at midseason, but offered his post-ASB stats as a reason that Seattle will likely stay the course with Ackley.

    I offered the full-season 2013 stats for Nick Franklin and Will Middlebrooks because of their comparably sizable samples of 408 and 369 plate appearances, respectively. As you accurately noted, Franklin slumped after the All Star break. Middlebrooks slumped in a similar fashion before the All Star break.

    Comparing their slumping "halves" (after the All Star break for Franklin and before the All Star break for Middlebrooks):

    NF aASB 212 PA, .197/.280/.338/.618

    WM bASB 216 PA, .192/.228/.389/.617

    Comparing their higher-performing "halves":

    NF bASB 169 PA, .268/.337/.451/.788

    WM aASB 153 PA, .286/.340/.493/.833

    Still, the full-season stats provide better samples for this 25-year-old corner infielder and this 22-year-old middle infielder.  

    Seattle is among many teams that could use another middle-of-the-order bat, but I would note that the Mariners posted a vastly improved team OPS+ of 98 this season, hitting more homeruns than every MLB team except the Baltimore Orioles.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Hill's beloved Mariners cannot keep a Manager...

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    The Mariners issues in th big picture are due to absentee ownership who has not taken a vested interest in the team since purchasing them. Bottom line is that Howard Lincoln is in much the same role as Harrington was with the Red Sox after the passing of Yawkey....He and Chuck Armstrong are the key players in what is a franchise that has been for the better part of two decades a rutterless ship, led by two individual whos primary function is in protecting the asset and not in building an infrastructure designed to produce a competitive major league team. 

    Which is why both Pat Gillick and Lou Pinella moved on....

    When they hired zdurerenzick after the train wreck that was Bavasi he was charged with retooling the minor league system and for the most part he's done just that. Both managers he hired Wakamtsu & Wedge were in effect hired to oversee the rebuilding of the team. Wedge in particular was hired to be his field manager because of his experience with the Indians and his ability to develop young players. Fast forward to today and it's interesting to me that zdurenenzick is on a one year deal and Wedge turned down the same offer. Something is wrotten in Denmark. both have done their jobs given what they had to work with and it appears that both will be sacrificial lambs for a franchise littered with carcasses. 

    I live in the northwest and root for the M's unless they're playing my hometown Red Sox. In the end the root of the problems lies in the executive leadership of this franchise. so with the recent passing of the owner, the hope is that the team is sold and with that they purge the entire executive team and put in place a model that works to improve the standing of the big league club. There are plenty of examples in the game today for how build a team. Sans a new owner the M's are in for another two or three years of 90 loss season and continued erosion of the fan base...



    Didn't know you lived out on the West Coast, Beantown.  Given that you are also a Mariners fan, perhaps you should consider changing your board name to CoffeeBeanTowne.  

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Hill's beloved Mariners cannot keep a Manager...

    If anyone cares about the Seattle Mariners, this informative piece from beat reporter Shannon Drayer lays out the problems:

    http://mynorthwest.com/374/2365353/Zduriencik-on-club-I-am-aware-of-where-we-are

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Hill's beloved Mariners cannot keep a Manager...

    In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

     

    The Mariners issues in th big picture are due to absentee ownership who has not taken a vested interest in the team since purchasing them. Bottom line is that Howard Lincoln is in much the same role as Harrington was with the Red Sox after the passing of Yawkey....He and Chuck Armstrong are the key players in what is a franchise that has been for the better part of two decades a rutterless ship, led by two individual whos primary function is in protecting the asset and not in building an infrastructure designed to produce a competitive major league team. 

    Which is why both Pat Gillick and Lou Pinella moved on....

    When they hired zdurerenzick after the train wreck that was Bavasi he was charged with retooling the minor league system and for the most part he's done just that. Both managers he hired Wakamtsu & Wedge were in effect hired to oversee the rebuilding of the team. Wedge in particular was hired to be his field manager because of his experience with the Indians and his ability to develop young players. Fast forward to today and it's interesting to me that zdurenenzick is on a one year deal and Wedge turned down the same offer. Something is wrotten in Denmark. both have done their jobs given what they had to work with and it appears that both will be sacrificial lambs for a franchise littered with carcasses. 

    I live in the northwest and root for the M's unless they're playing my hometown Red Sox. In the end the root of the problems lies in the executive leadership of this franchise. so with the recent passing of the owner, the hope is that the team is sold and with that they purge the entire executive team and put in place a model that works to improve the standing of the big league club. There are plenty of examples in the game today for how build a team. Sans a new owner the M's are in for another two or three years of 90 loss season and continued erosion of the fan base...

     



    Didn't know you lived out on the West Coast, Beantown.  Given that you are also a Mariners fan, perhaps you should consider changing your board name to CoffeeBeanTowne.  

     



    Very creative but I think I'll stick with BT.. I grew up in Boston moved to the west coast in the mid 80's in my late 20's. My baseball roots run deep my grandfather rooted for the tam when they played at the Huntington Grounds, my Dad was a WWII Teddy ball game fan Although he was a Braves fan first. I cut my teeth on the impossible dream team of 1967 and my son now 15 is a huge Sox fan too...

    Not sure that I qualify as a fan but I do root for the M's. 

    Since I'm in a more objective position than guys like Hill55 who I have great respect for. Most of the mediots in the local area continue to blame the gm and the field managers for the plight of the team, when it's fairly clear the problem lies in the owners box. I think they're setup to fail by an executive team that manages the asset with no clear direction in terms of baseball operations. 

    zdurenzick the current gm IMHO has done a decent enough job of stockpiling some very good prospects. I get the sense that they finally came to realization that they can't keep trying to build 500 teams with marginal free agents.  To so sure the goal has ever been to put a championship level team on the field. Which has been their mo since the days of Bavasi. While I like the current direction. Given the uncertainty of the ownership and that zdurenzick's tenure appears likely to end after next year, certainly if the team is sold. Until they change ownership and purge the team of the likes of Howard Lincon and Chuck Armstrong they'll continue to wallow in the myre. Agian, not sure why but the local media has for whatever reason given the owner and his leadership team a pass. 

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Hill's beloved Mariners cannot keep a Manager...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    Hill55,

     

    Respectfully, your reaching for straws trying to make a case for Ackley. The stats your using above are heavily weighted by his hot streak in August. Where is ops was north of 1.000 however he came back to earth in September with an ops of 673 which is slightly higher than his career norm of 622...Franklin is a young hitter and you're continued use of Middlebrooks as a reference seems disingenuous. In the case of Ackley you chose numbers that would make him look good and in the case of Franklin instead of using the same time frame you decided to use the entire season. Because his second half was horrible, his first half wasn't much better,  which we both know that you chose that time frame because it weights Middlebrooks numbers to enhance the arguments in Franklins favor, had you instead used his second half splits...post All Star the numbers are not flattering...again he's a good looking young player, but to suggest that because of him the M's don't need a hitter of Cano's stature is silly...

    In the end the intent of my analysis was to show that while the M's do have some good young ball players they lack impact middle of the order hitters...of which none of the current players on the big league roster project to be nor have the M's drafted and developed a player that fits that profile in more than two decades,( since Arod and Griffey came up through the system). a profile of player they tried to acquire with aquisitions of Smoak and Montero, however both have fallen short and given that Ackley never became the perrenial 300 hitter they thought that drafted. The mariners lineup has a huge hole in the middle of it...That's not to suggest that they can't all be solid big league hitters. The need is greater than to have a couple of 750 ish ops guys in the middle of the order with a below average defensive centerfielder who might eclispe 700.  

    Which is why I think they'd be foolish not to make a run at Cano who might be the best hitter to come to market since Bonds. Perhaps it's premature to make such an investment. Short of spending money the rebuild will continue and come 2015 or 2016 they might then be in position to rebuild again.

     

    Beantowne, it is curious that you would be critical of my use of partial-season stats for Dustin Ackley and then turn around and insist on partial-season stats for Nick Franklin.

    I acknowledged that the Mariners probably were tempted to "cut bait" with Ackley at midseason, but offered his post-ASB stats as a reason that Seattle will likely stay the course with Ackley.

    I offered the full-season 2013 stats for Nick Franklin and Will Middlebrooks because of their comparably sizable samples of 408 and 369 plate appearances, respectively. As you accurately noted, Franklin slumped after the All Star break. Middlebrooks slumped in a similar fashion before the All Star break.

    Comparing their slumping "halves" (after the All Star break for Franklin and before the All Star break for Middlebrooks):

    NF aASB 212 PA, .197/.280/.338/.618

    WM bASB 216 PA, .192/.228/.389/.617

    Comparing their higher-performing "halves":

    NF bASB 169 PA, .268/.337/.451/.788

    WM aASB 153 PA, .286/.340/.493/.833

    Still, the full-season stats provide better samples for this 25-year-old corner infielder and this 22-year-old middle infielder.  

    Seattle is among many teams that could use another middle-of-the-order bat, but I would note that the Mariners posted a vastly improved team OPS+ of 98 this season, hitting more homeruns than every MLB team except the Baltimore Orioles.



    Middle of the order bats do not always have to measured in home runs...Ibanez and Morales are both good hitters neither is what I would consider impact #3 or #4 types. My greater point is what the M's need is twor guys in the middle of the lineup who can hit good pitching. That to me is what defines impact middle of the order bats...Robinson Cano is an impact bat.

     
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