Holy **** John Lackey is skinny

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    Re: Holy **** John Lackey is skinny

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    How about something as simple as the SP's game-by-game ERA v the league RPG.  The NL scored 4.22.  Lee allowed less than 4.22 in 19 games, so he has a theoretical W/L of 19-11, which is exactly what I'd expect with his ERA.


    But it still way short of variance.  Once a team has a 5-0 lead, most pitchers probably refuse to walk a guy, meaning that they are going to give the hitter more to hit.  There are going to be way too many factors to predict hypothetical W/L.




    That would work too Joe.  It would definitely be more indicative of how a pitcher pitched than W/L record.  As you said, there are going to be too many variables involved, but the more you can isolate that are out of the pitcher's control, the better. 

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Holy **** John Lackey is skinny

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:


    Amazing how these things evolve.  I spent 2-3 arguing with Pumpsie in Sept '11, that we'd be favored over the NYY in the playoffs because our top-3 was better than their top three, assuming Buchholz would be back.  He insisted on comparing total team ERA.  Now I find out, 1.5 years later, that he is a fan of the top-3 philosophy.




    I remember the debate all too well Joey.   At least he's coming around.   ;-)

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Holy **** John Lackey is skinny

    In response to pinstripezac35's comment:

    The stat is called Support Neutral Wins (SNW), which is a pitcher's expected number of wins based on league average run support.

    my gawd!!  redsox kimmi U R amazing

    if I had a favorite stat geek

    there could be no other  but

    as far as I'm concern U R all mean people

    just trying to ruin BB debates for those of us

    who actually wach the games ;-)




    LOL Zac

    FWIW, my dad is as pig-headed and slow old school as you are when it comes to stats.

    I'm not sure if he even knows what OPS is.  LOL

     

     
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