Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread
posted at 12/1/2013 9:48 PM EST
We may have to pay a small portion, but as GMs get desperate, they will come crawling to Ben.
Here are the SP signees so far... (note: most have less IP over recent years)
Dempster's WAR: 4.4/2 yrs and 7.0/3
$17.5M x 2 Lincecum
(Tim's WAR 2012 + 2013 = 2.5 and 6.1/3 yrs)
(Wandy's WAR: 2.5/2 yrs and 3.9/3 yrs)
$12.25M x 4 Nolasco
(Ricky's WAR: 5.5/2 and 8.6/3)
$11.5M x 2 Hudson
(Tim's WAR: 3.8/2 and 7.1/3, and he's older and more fragile)
$11M/1 de la Rosa
(Jorge's WAR: 2.6/2 and 4.1/3, and he hasn't had 170+ IP since '09)
(Dan's WAR: 3.3/2 and 9.5/3)
$8M x 3 Hughes
(Phil's WAR: 3.0/2 and 5.5/3)
$8M/1 Josh Johnson
(Josh's WAR: 4.0/2 and 5.6/3)
Out of all these top SP signees, only Nolasco has a better 2 year WAR, and only Nolasco and haren have a significantly better 3 year WAR.
Looking at what these pitchers have gotten and what their recent WAR has been, I'd say Dempster's WAR value is pretty close to a contract worth $13.25M.
Fangraphs has his value at $31.9M/3 years or about $10.6M a year. This would suggest we may have to pay about $3M of his deal, but my position is that GMs will overpay for a SP in terms of dollars, especially if all it will cost them is a low level prospect or two.
Ryan Dempster has pitched fewer innings over the past three season than 30-year-old Jason Vargas, who recently signed a four-year, $32 million contract with Kansas City after posting a WAR of 1.5 in 24 starts this season.
The one-year contract carries a lower risk, but also a lower potential payoff. In three years the $8 million AAV for Vargas and Phil Hughes may well represent a bargain ... or not.
Hill, you use WAR a lot, so take a look at all the signees this year so far and compare their recent 2-3 year WAR totals against Dempster. Going by your common methodology, it appears that Dempster is worth close to $10-12M/ year. That falls into my range of trading Dempster for a low prospect and paying maybe up to $3M of his deal.
We open a roster spot for a FA and save $10M or so to use towards a FA or a better FA than we could have had with $10M less to spend.