Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    Here's how soxprospects.com lists our current 2014 depth chart:

    (Note: they do not list players at multiple OF positions, so for example, Vitek would not be called up to play LF ahead of Kalish, Castellanos, Hassan or Brentz)

     

    LF:

    Nava

    Gomes

    Vitek

    Heller/Turocy/Perkins

     

    CF:

    Bradley

    Kalish

    Wilkerson

    Ramos

     

    RF:

    Victorino

    Castellanos

    Hassan

    Brentz

    Linares

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    • Shortstop Stephen Drew is still a great fit for a Red Sox infield that currently featuresXander Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks on the left side, writes John Tomase of the Boston Herald. If Drew can't get a club to give up a pick to sign him to a multi-year deal, Boston could swoop back into the mix and try to land him on another one-year contract, perhaps with an implicit promise not to extend another qualifying offer, Tomase suggests.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    I thought teams were not allowed to use the QO in negotations, whether they cannot promise not offer one, or the player cannot promise to decline it.

     

    CBA experts? Little help?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I thought teams were not allowed to use the QO in negotations, whether they cannot promise not offer one, or the player cannot promise to decline it.

     

    CBA experts? Little help?

    [/QUOTE] It's the old wink,wink nod,nod method! They can't put it in a contract but they can verbally agree to anything.


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20131130-andrew-bailey-awaiting-word-on-contract.ece

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In response to raider3524's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20131130-andrew-bailey-awaiting-word-on-contract.ece

    [/QUOTE]

    It would be nice to have him back on a minor league deal.

    Free up a 40 man roster spot?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mrmojo1120. Show mrmojo1120's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    Twins are signing Phil Hughes,3 years,24 million 

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/233955521.html

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In response to mrmojo1120's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Twins are signing Phil Hughes,3 years,24 million 

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/233955521.html

    [/QUOTE]

    Wow, and people think teams won't pay Dempster's one year remaining.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mrmojo1120's comment:

    Twins are signing Phil Hughes,3 years,24 million 

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/233955521.html

    Wow, and people think teams won't pay Dempster's one year remaining.

     

    This season 36-year-old Ryan Dempster posted a WAR of 1.3 in 32 games, including 29 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    This season 27-year-old Phil Hughes posted a WAR of 1.3 in 30 games, including 29 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    For his career, Dempster has been valued at 27.5 WAR in 579 games, including 351 starts. Hughes has been valued at 11.0 WAR in 182 games, including 132 starts.

    A team is unlikely to pay Dempster's one remaining year at $13.25 million when the far younger Hughes reportedly was acquired for three years at an AAV of $8 million.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mrmojo1120's comment:

    Twins are signing Phil Hughes,3 years,24 million 

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/233955521.html

    Wow, and people think teams won't pay Dempster's one year remaining.

     

    This season 36-year-old Ryan Dempster posted a WAR of 1.3 in 32 games, including 29 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    This season 27-year-old Phil Hughes posted a WAR of 1.3 in 30 games, including 29 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    For his career, Dempster has been valued at 27.5 WAR in 579 games, including 351 starts. Hughes has been valued at 11.0 WAR in 182 games, including 132 starts.

    A team is unlikely to pay Dempster's one remaining year at $13.25 million when the far younger Hughes reportedly was acquired for three years at an AAV of $8 million.

    [/QUOTE]

    In case you haven't noticed, more and more teams are willing to pay bigger dollars on shorter term deals, so a contending team might just be willing to pay the $13.25 million owed to a guy like Dempster, who is pretty much a lock to give you 180 innings and all the intangibles that your "WAR" stats have absolutely no idea how to calculate...The ironic thing is that your Mariners, who have money to spend and some young talent, but lack veteran leadership, would seem to be a perfect fit for a guy like Dempster...

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    Teams may not want to pay Dempster's full salary of 13.25 million, but you have to think a few would be willing to take on say 9 million of that.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mrmojo1120's comment:

    Twins are signing Phil Hughes,3 years,24 million 

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/233955521.html

    Wow, and people think teams won't pay Dempster's one year remaining.

     

    This season 36-year-old Ryan Dempster posted a WAR of 1.3 in 32 games, including 29 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    This season 27-year-old Phil Hughes posted a WAR of 1.3 in 30 games, including 29 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    For his career, Dempster has been valued at 27.5 WAR in 579 games, including 351 starts. Hughes has been valued at 11.0 WAR in 182 games, including 132 starts.

    A team is unlikely to pay Dempster's one remaining year at $13.25 million when the far younger Hughes reportedly was acquired for three years at an AAV of $8 million.

    [/QUOTE]

    I disagree. The one year deal is a much lower risk.

    We may have to pay a small portion, but as GMs get desperate, they will come crawling to Ben.

    Here are the SP signees so far... (note: most have less IP over recent years)

    Dempster's WAR:  4.4/2 yrs and 7.0/3

     

    $17.5M x 2 Lincecum

    (Tim's WAR 2012 + 2013 = 2.5 and 6.1/3 yrs)

     

    $13M/1Wandy Rodriguez 

    (Wandy's WAR: 2.5/2 yrs and 3.9/3 yrs)

     

    $12.25M x 4 Nolasco

    (Ricky's WAR: 5.5/2 and 8.6/3)

     

    $11.5M x 2 Hudson

    (Tim's WAR: 3.8/2 and 7.1/3, and he's older and more fragile)

     

    $11M/1 de la Rosa

    (Jorge's WAR: 2.6/2 and 4.1/3, and he hasn't had 170+ IP since '09)

     

    $10M Haren

    (Dan's WAR: 3.3/2 and 9.5/3)

     

    $8M x 3 Hughes

    (Phil's WAR: 3.0/2 and 5.5/3)

     

    $8M/1 Josh Johnson

    (Josh's WAR: 4.0/2 and 5.6/3)

     

    Out of all these top SP signees, only Nolasco has a better 2 year WAR, and only Nolasco and haren have a significantly better 3 year WAR.

    Looking at what these pitchers have gotten and what their recent WAR has been, I'd say Dempster's WAR value is pretty close to a contract worth $13.25M.

    Fangraphs has his value at $31.9M/3 years or about $10.6M a year. This would suggest we may have to pay about $3M of his deal, but my position is that GMs will overpay for a SP in terms of dollars, especially if all it will cost them is a low level prospect or two.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    In response to hill55's comment:
    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mrmojo1120's comment:

    Twins are signing Phil Hughes,3 years,24 million 

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/233955521.html

    Wow, and people think teams won't pay Dempster's one year remaining.

    This season 36-year-old Ryan Dempster posted a WAR of 1.3 in 32 games, including 29 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    This season 27-year-old Phil Hughes posted a WAR of 1.3 in 30 games, including 29 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    For his career, Dempster has been valued at 27.5 WAR in 579 games, including 351 starts. Hughes has been valued at 11.0 WAR in 182 games, including 132 starts.

    A team is unlikely to pay Dempster's one remaining year at $13.25 million when the far younger Hughes reportedly was acquired for three years at an AAV of $8 million.

    I disagree. The one year deal is a much lower risk.

    We may have to pay a small portion, but as GMs get desperate, they will come crawling to Ben.

    Here are the SP signees so far... (note: most have less IP over recent years)

     

    Ryan Dempster has pitched fewer innings over the past three season than 30-year-old Jason Vargas, who recently signed a four-year, $32 million contract with Kansas City after posting a WAR of 1.5 in 24 starts this season.

    The one-year contract carries a lower risk, but also a lower potential payoff. In three years the $8 million AAV for Vargas and Phil Hughes may well represent a bargain ... or not.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    In response to hill55's comment:
    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mrmojo1120's comment:

    Twins are signing Phil Hughes,3 years,24 million 

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/233955521.html

    Wow, and people think teams won't pay Dempster's one year remaining.

    This season 36-year-old Ryan Dempster posted a WAR of 1.3 in 32 games, including 29 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    This season 27-year-old Phil Hughes posted a WAR of 1.3 in 30 games, including 29 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    For his career, Dempster has been valued at 27.5 WAR in 579 games, including 351 starts. Hughes has been valued at 11.0 WAR in 182 games, including 132 starts.

    A team is unlikely to pay Dempster's one remaining year at $13.25 million when the far younger Hughes reportedly was acquired for three years at an AAV of $8 million.

    I disagree. The one year deal is a much lower risk.

    We may have to pay a small portion, but as GMs get desperate, they will come crawling to Ben.

    Here are the SP signees so far... (note: most have less IP over recent years)

     

    Ryan Dempster has pitched fewer innings over the past three season than 30-year-old Jason Vargas, who recently signed a four-year, $32 million contract with Kansas City after posting a WAR of 1.5 in 24 starts this season.

    The one-year contract carries a lower risk, but also a lower potential payoff. In three years the $8 million AAV for Vargas and Phil Hughes may well represent a bargain ... or not.



    It's tough to call a pitchers success level from year to year when you don't have a true ace on the club.  I think the Sox totally blew it on the Dempster deal and now missed a golden opportunirty to get Hudson who has dominated in both leagues.  I still feel we should find a way to lose Dempster and use the money wisely.  I also like Britton, Workman and feel Renaudo should get the same shot we gave Webster last season.  

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In his Sunday column for the third straight week, the Globe's Nick Cafardo mentioned the Angels' Mark Trumbo as a potential trade target for the Red Sox:

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/12/01/red-sox-hope-stick-offseason-plan-that-earned-championship/3dWoG3hmR0wwLuUTEdnidP/story.html

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    I don't know which way the wind will blow for Ryan Dempster, it appears as if he is the odd man out. He didn't get a start in the post season but did relieve in a game. The three headed monster Lackey, Peavy and Dempster more than likely one of them gets traded. Lackey would have the most value followed by Peavy, so maybe Dempster stays! In any case he was part of the rotation for most of the year and he was a valuable member of this Championship team.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    We may have to pay a small portion, but as GMs get desperate, they will come crawling to Ben.

    Here are the SP signees so far... (note: most have less IP over recent years)

    Dempster's WAR:  4.4/2 yrs and 7.0/3

     

    $17.5M x 2 Lincecum

    (Tim's WAR 2012 + 2013 = 2.5 and 6.1/3 yrs)

     

    $13M/1Wandy Rodriguez 

    (Wandy's WAR: 2.5/2 yrs and 3.9/3 yrs)

     

    $12.25M x 4 Nolasco

    (Ricky's WAR: 5.5/2 and 8.6/3)

     

    $11.5M x 2 Hudson

    (Tim's WAR: 3.8/2 and 7.1/3, and he's older and more fragile)

     

    $11M/1 de la Rosa

    (Jorge's WAR: 2.6/2 and 4.1/3, and he hasn't had 170+ IP since '09)

     

    $10M Haren

    (Dan's WAR: 3.3/2 and 9.5/3)

     

    $8M x 3 Hughes

    (Phil's WAR: 3.0/2 and 5.5/3)

     

    $8M/1 Josh Johnson

    (Josh's WAR: 4.0/2 and 5.6/3)

     

    Out of all these top SP signees, only Nolasco has a better 2 year WAR, and only Nolasco and haren have a significantly better 3 year WAR.

    Looking at what these pitchers have gotten and what their recent WAR has been, I'd say Dempster's WAR value is pretty close to a contract worth $13.25M.

     

    Fangraphs has his value at $31.9M/3 years or about $10.6M a year. This would suggest we may have to pay about $3M of his deal, but my position is that GMs will overpay for a SP in terms of dollars, especially if all it will cost them is a low level prospect or two.

     

    Ryan Dempster has pitched fewer innings over the past three season than 30-year-old Jason Vargas, who recently signed a four-year, $32 million contract with Kansas City after posting a WAR of 1.5 in 24 starts this season.

    The one-year contract carries a lower risk, but also a lower potential payoff. In three years the $8 million AAV for Vargas and Phil Hughes may well represent a bargain ... or not.

     

     Hill, you use WAR a lot, so take a look at all the signees this year so far and compare their recent 2-3 year WAR totals against Dempster. Going by your common methodology, it appears that Dempster is worth close to $10-12M/ year. That falls into my range of trading Dempster for a low prospect and paying maybe up to $3M of his deal. 

    We open a roster spot for a FA and save $10M or so to use towards a FA or a better FA than we could have had with $10M less to spend.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In his Sunday column for the third straight week, the Globe's Nick Cafardo mentioned the Angels' Mark Trumbo as a potential trade target for the Red Sox:

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/12/01/red-sox-hope-stick-offseason-plan-that-earned-championship/3dWoG3hmR0wwLuUTEdnidP/story.html

    [/QUOTE]


    Cafardo has some weird man-crush on Trumbo, and is one of few MLB beat reporters capable of dreaming up and publishing worse trade scenarios than random message board posters.    But in the interest of fairness, he can make them horribly lop-sided either way...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    Just say no to Trumbo

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

    Two major league sources said Monday night that catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia is unlikely to return to the Red Sox.

    Saltalamacchia is the top catcher on the free-agent market and is expected to command at least a three-year contract. The Red Sox have held at two years.

    The Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins have been negotiating with Saltalamacchia. He is a native of West Palm Beach and could find the Marlins attractive. The Twins are seeking a catcher after shifting Joe Mauer to first base.

    Saltalamacchia hit .273 with an .804 OPS for Sox last season. His 54 extra-base hits were the most for a catcher in the American League.

    But after serving as the primary catcher for much of the regular season, Saltalamacchia lost playing time to David Ross in the postseason. Ross started the final three games of the World Series. Saltalamacchia was angry with the demotion and that helped spur his willingness to look elsewhere.

    Ross, who turns 37 in March, is signed through next season. The Red Sox also have Ryan Lavarnway, who started 18 games last season. If the Sox look outside the organization, free agent A.J. Pierzynski is an option. Or they could make a trade.

    The Sox have great faith in the ability of 23-year-old Christian Vazquez. But he has played only briefly in Triple A and would need more seasoning before bring ready for the majors.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    Non-tendered:

    David Adams Yankees

     J.P. Arencibia Blue Jays

     Scott Atchison Mets

     Dylan Axelrod White Sox

     John Axford Cardinals

     Andrew Bailey Red Sox

     Daniel Bard Cubs

     Mitchell Boggs Rockies

     Chris Coghlan Marlins

     Matt Daley Yankees

     Sam Fuld Rays

     Mat Gamel Cubs

     Chris Getz Royals

     Tommy Hanson Angels

     Jeremy Hefner Mets

     Daniel Hudson Diamondbacks

     Paul Janish Braves

     Elliot Johnson Braves

     Ryan Kalish Red Sox

     Chang-Yong Lim Cubs

     Lou Marson Indians

     Cristhian Martinez Braves

     Chris Nelson Angels

     Jayson Nix Yankees

     Francisco Peguero Giants

     Jason Pridie Orioles

     Omar Quintanilla Mets

     Sandy Rosario Giants

     Justin Turner Mets

     Jordany Valdespin Mets

     Ryan Webb Marlins

     Jerome Williams Angels

     Wesley Wright Rays

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    Hmm, interesting, think they'll try to re-sign both Kalish and Bailey to minor league contracts.  Sort of hoping Abraham is right on Salty, never been a big fan of his game.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    I'm not sure what AJP is going to give us more than Salty would have.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not sure what AJP is going to give us more than Salty would have.

    [/QUOTE]

    Less commitment, that's what.  I think this says something about what the organization thinks of Vasquez/Swihart.  

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread

    Rays To Acquire Ryan Hanigan By  Zach Links [December 3 at 11:38am CST]

    The Reds are trading catcher Ryan Hanigan to the Rays, sources tell Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link).  The swap could be a three-way deal.

     
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