Re: Hot Stove League Discussion Thread
posted at 12/1/2013 11:35 AM EST
In response to hill55's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to mrmojo1120's comment:
Twins are signing Phil Hughes,3 years,24 million
Wow, and people think teams won't pay Dempster's one year remaining.
This season 36-year-old Ryan Dempster posted a WAR of 1.3 in 32 games, including 29 starts:
This season 27-year-old Phil Hughes posted a WAR of 1.3 in 30 games, including 29 starts:
For his career, Dempster has been valued at 27.5 WAR in 579 games, including 351 starts. Hughes has been valued at 11.0 WAR in 182 games, including 132 starts.
A team is unlikely to pay Dempster's one remaining year at $13.25 million when the far younger Hughes reportedly was acquired for three years at an AAV of $8 million.
I disagree. The one year deal is a much lower risk.
We may have to pay a small portion, but as GMs get desperate, they will come crawling to Ben.
Here are the SP signees so far... (note: most have less IP over recent years)
Dempster's WAR: 4.4/2 yrs and 7.0/3
$17.5M x 2 Lincecum
(Tim's WAR 2012 + 2013 = 2.5 and 6.1/3 yrs)
(Wandy's WAR: 2.5/2 yrs and 3.9/3 yrs)
$12.25M x 4 Nolasco
(Ricky's WAR: 5.5/2 and 8.6/3)
$11.5M x 2 Hudson
(Tim's WAR: 3.8/2 and 7.1/3, and he's older and more fragile)
$11M/1 de la Rosa
(Jorge's WAR: 2.6/2 and 4.1/3, and he hasn't had 170+ IP since '09)
(Dan's WAR: 3.3/2 and 9.5/3)
$8M x 3 Hughes
(Phil's WAR: 3.0/2 and 5.5/3)
$8M/1 Josh Johnson
(Josh's WAR: 4.0/2 and 5.6/3)
Out of all these top SP signees, only Nolasco has a better 2 year WAR, and only Nolasco and haren have a significantly better 3 year WAR.
Looking at what these pitchers have gotten and what their recent WAR has been, I'd say Dempster's WAR value is pretty close to a contract worth $13.25M.
Fangraphs has his value at $31.9M/3 years or about $10.6M a year. This would suggest we may have to pay about $3M of his deal, but my position is that GMs will overpay for a SP in terms of dollars, especially if all it will cost them is a low level prospect or two.