Saw his name mentioned in the BoSox banter blog. He is only 26, A former 1st round draft pick, a switch hitter with power and not eligible for free agency until 2017.

The Mariners have Kendry Morales, Jesus Montero and Raul Ibanez so he could be available cheap. I am thinking we could offer them a bullpen arm like Mortenson, Brittan or Alex Wilson.

Is he is worth a look?

 

Usually you can get guys who can't hit pretty cheap.

What good is power if a guy has a sub .239 batting average ( highest he's ever hit and going downhill two years running).

In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

On the flipside, he's still young and was a premier prospect for the Rangers just a few years ago. If he can be had cheaply, it might be worth it to see if he can turn himself around, as great 1B options aren't exactly plentiful at the moment.

I seem to remember a guy who looked awful in Seattle, then came to Boston, looked AWESOME, and parlayed that into a 4/56 deal that he's actually earning.

Add in a lineup that offers little-to-no protection or help, I can understand why hitters die in Seattle.

It's not easy to fill a roster with proven, young, healthy players. You have to take chances. I'd rather take a chance like that than a chance on a 31 year old with hip issues.

I have brought him up as an option numerous times..  Smoak gets killef by freakishly bad BABIP splitd but id absolutely worth a look.   Despite the obvious objections from the Burrito Man...

In response to Flapjack07's comment:

It is the same everywhere.  Some people see the price of something double, and they figure they should buy it.  Others see assets whose value as declined, and figure it is time to sell.

Which is not to say either one will alwasy be right or wrong, but I think if you consistently pursue players who just had a good season, that you will lose.

Past that, the analysis was shallow.  As someone else mentioned, if one were to look at Beltre's record the same way, they would could come to the conclusion that he had declined two years in a row, and had a .683 OPS.

On Smoak, I am an agnostic, depending on price.  But lost in the previous analysis, is that-

• Smoak only has 2 full seasons of ABs
• His road OPS is .715
• Very even L/R splits
• He had a monster September with 5 HRs and a .341, and a 13/13 K/W

Again, I would be unwilling to pay the price as if he was still a top-tier prospect he once was.  But this might well be a good buying opportunity.

He is definitely intriguing as an option.  Just wondering how a fish bowl like Boston would help him?  Or would he be better in a more intense market and thrive?

 

If it costs very little, why not take a flyer?

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In response to Softlaw1's comment:

Why is that better? Should the Sox goal be to win baseball games or save Henry 's. money?

Former or Current Sox -  I count 7 in the > 100 point drop club

OPS     minors               bigs

SMOAK   .849             .643

Plantier   .895               .770

Youk    .884                 .867

Lansford  .884             .753

Vaughn   .869              .906

Bragg    ~.850 (PCL)    .721                

Pedroia   .844              .830

Reddick   .832              .745

F. Sanchez  .828           .748

Nomar    .828                .882

Salty      .823               .720

Greenwell  .820           .831

Ellsbury   .816              .791   

O'Leary  .815              .780

 

Quintana  .813    .711 (I can't even remember this guy, oh I was in College)    

Nixon     .812                 .828

Boggs    .798                 .858

Allenson    .796              .632

Hanley R.    .787            .866

Miller          .784              .696

Naehring    .774             .785

Cooper      .773              .723

Gedman    .765              .703

Stapelton  .755               .707

Murphy    .750                .801

Lyons      .749                 .642

Burks    .728                   .874

Hobson  .790                  .719

Valentin  .700                 .814

Hoffman  .685                .623

On the subject of 100-point drops in OPS, last season opposing hitters posted a .626 OPS at Safeco Field and a .777 OPS against Seattle pitchers at their home parks.

For Mariner hitters, the disparity was not as great: .622 at home and .703 on the road.

It's tough to draw conclusions when one player went from a hitter-friendly minor league environment to pitcher-friendly MLB venue, and another player went from a pitcher-friendly minor league environment to a hitter-friendly MLB venue.

In response to Softlaw1's comment:

Thats the Mariners not the Marlins...plus who says anyone is begging anybody...your assumptions are quite amusing.

Usually you can get guys who can't hit pretty cheap.

What good is power if a guy has a sub .239 batting average ( highest he's ever hit and going downhill two years running).

[/QUOTE]


On the flipside, he's still young and was a premier prospect for the Rangers just a few years ago. If he can be had cheaply, it might be worth it to see if he can turn himself around, as great 1B options aren't exactly plentiful at the moment.

[/QUOTE]

Totally agree.  I think people - maybe even organisations - can tire of waiting for prospects to come good and a change of scenery can do wonders.  Look at what we gave up for Salty:   

• Chris McGuiness
• Michael Thomas
• Roman Mendez

Mendez seems to be perking up (albeit in barely age-appropriate leagues), but the other two are going nowhere.  And we got a slugging MLB catcher who's improving on defense and still hasn't turned 28.

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If not Smoak, perhaps Carp.  Whichever could be had for a surplus reliever.  But only if Napoli deal falls through.  (Though Carp might be worth having around for the LHH power hitting OF/1B that the Sox profess to be looking for, regardless of how Napoli deal shakes out,)

In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

Adam Dunn springs to mind.

• Career batting average - FWIW: .240
• Career OBP:  .370
• Career SLG:  .499
• Career OPS:  .870
• Career HR/162 games:  38

 

 

In response to hill55's comment:

In the last 30 years, there have been 55 first baseman (including Smoak) who have been given 1,000+ plate appearances through their age 25 season. Every single one of them hit better than Smoak has, and we’re not just talking raw numbers that can be explained away by Safeco Field or the change in run environments. By wRC+, which accounts for both a player’s home park and the average performance of the league at the time, Smoak’s 87 is the worst of the 55 players on the list.

Travis Lee was better. Greg Colbrunn was better. Casey Kotchman was better. John Mabrywas better. Conor Jackson was better. Brad Fullmer was better.

Yes, there are examples of guys who sucked early and then developed later. Erik Karros was lousy through age 26, then put together a nice five year run from 27-31, including two years where he was a legitimate all-star. Tino Martinez didn’t have his first really good year until he was 27, and then he had a nice little peak for a few years after that. Carlos Pena bounced around the league until he was 29 before turning into a monster. So, it’s not impossible that Justin Smoak will eventually become a fairly useful player.

There’s a few problems, though. The obvious one is the point we’ve already made – all of those guys were better through age 25 than Smoak, and they all produced at around an average clip before turning into above average hitters. Smoak hasn’t done that for more than a few weeks at a time. Here and there, he gives glimpses of being good, but over a consistent period of time, he’s never been more than just okay. All of those guys improved substantially, but they had long stretches earlier in their career where they were actually good. Smoak has never had a long stretch of being a good Major League hitter.

Beyond that, though, it’s worth noting that even the peaks of the guys who did improve weren’t all that great. Karros had +5 win seasons at 27 and 31, but from 28-30, he was basically an average player. Martinez had two +5 win seasons at 27 and 29, but was more of a +3 win player at 28, 30, and 31. These are the best case scenarios, and they were more solid players than stars. You wouldn’t mind having their peak years, but they weren’t franchise first baseman, and they didn’t have very long peaks even after they took a step forward.http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/06/26/giving-up-on-justin-smoak/

Who'd a thought Smoak could evoke such number-crunching?  

In response to rickerd2's comment:

I'd prefer a healthy Napoli for 3 years, but I think Smoak's well worth a punt (bet) if the Sox could get him for some of the spare parts mentioned above.  But I'm not sure the Mariners would move him for Mortensen, Britton AND Wilson, not to mention OR Wilson.....even though I'd be happy to deal all of them for him. 

Not a great idea. Since being traded by Texas for Cliff Lee, this guy (Smoak) has struggled. Its at the point that he is being labled as a bust. Ben, unless you get the guy for nothing , as the song goes, "Walk on by".

I'd pass thanks..

I certainly wouldn't give up Mortensen, Britton AND Wilson.  More like Mortensen and Hassan.

In response to AL34's comment:

Mortensen, Britton AND Wilson are little/nothing to me.  Smoak is 26, a switch hitter, a plus fielder and hit 19 HR in 132 games last year in a pitchers' park in a poor lineup.  Of course it's about what we would give for him...but if the Ms are loaded with 1B/DH types maybe we could get him for spare parts.

In response to parhunter55's comment:

How much value does Wilson have given he's 26 and had a WHIP of 1.5 in AAA last year?  Or the 24-year old Britton and his 1.465 WHIP in AA last year?  At least the 27-year old Mortensen has had a tiny bit of success in the bigs.

I only mentioned those 3 because an earlier poster mentioned them as potential bait but in an "or" sense i.e. one of them for Smoak.  I think the Ms would laugh at an offer of all of them for Smoak.

Hill - your view?

Odds are he would Smoak would continue to be a bust in Beantown. However, this would be the year to take a crack at him. This is a nothing to lose year.

Most poster scream that the Sox overpay for everyone-- the only way not to overpay is homegrown talent and take a player (via FA or trade) who teams are down on and he exceeds expectations-- Ross, Beltre, Ortiz.

Final analysis-- if the price isn't bad, roll the dice.