How about Justin Smoak?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to parhunter55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I certainly wouldn't give up Mortensen, Britton AND Wilson.  More like Mortensen and Hassan.

    [/QUOTE]

    How much value does Wilson have given he's 26 and had a WHIP of 1.5 in AAA last year?  Or the 24-year old Britton and his 1.465 WHIP in AA last year?  At least the 27-year old Mortensen has had a tiny bit of success in the bigs.

    I only mentioned those 3 because an earlier poster mentioned them as potential bait but in an "or" sense i.e. one of them for Smoak.  I think the Ms would laugh at an offer of all of them for Smoak.

    Hill - your view?

    [/QUOTE]


    It is not so much the names, but the fact that you suggest all three.  Mortensen is a reliever with MLB experience and some real value.  Britton is a young (23-year old) lefty who projects as a reliever, is on the 40-man roster despite losing a year of development to TJ surgery 3 years ago, and Wilson is now another bullpen arm that will likely take innings if injuries deplete the bullpen in 2013.  Britton (11) and Wilson (15) are top 20 prospects going into the 2013 season.  That is too much to give up on a flyer, which is all Smoak is to me at this point.  26 and cannot keep his job, cannot even stay on the major league roster.  Mortensen and some spare part (which is what I think Hassan is) is the most I would give up for Smoak.  If the Mariners can do better, let them.

     
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    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to Wolfpack13's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Odds are he would Smoak would continue to be a bust in Beantown. However, this would be the year to take a crack at him. This is a nothing to lose year.

    Most poster scream that the Sox overpay for everyone-- the only way not to overpay is homegrown talent and take a player (via FA or trade) who teams are down on and he exceeds expectations-- Ross, Beltre, Ortiz.

    Final analysis-- if the price isn't bad, roll the dice.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree....but will add that if Smoak delivered exactly what he delivered in 2012 for the Ms in 2013 for the Sox over (approx) 155 games:

    • (approx) $500k salary
    • plus fielding
    • (approx) 23 HR
    • (bad stuff too like .654 OPS and (approx) 130 Ks)....

    I wouldn't call that a bust....would you? 

    Then factor in a better lineup, better hitter's park....possible improvement...

    I like this idea!  ;-)

     

     

     
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    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    It is not so much the names, but the fact that you suggest all three.  Mortensen is a reliever with MLB experience and some real value.  Britton is a young (23-year old) lefty who projects as a reliever, is on the 40-man roster despite losing a year of development to TJ surgery 3 years ago, and Wilson is now another bullpen arm that will likely take innings if injuries deplete the bullpen in 2013.  Britton (11) and Wilson (15) are top 20 prospects going into the 2013 season.  That is too much to give up on a flyer, which is all Smoak is to me at this point.  26 and cannot keep his job, cannot even stay on the major league roster.  Mortensen and some spare part (which is what I think Hassan is) is the most I would give up for Smoak.  If the Mariners can do better, let them.

    [/QUOTE]


    I think the 26-year old Wilson and his 2012 1.5 WHIP in AAA is about 12th on the Sox 2013 BP depth chart at best.  I think Britton, 24 in May, and his 1.465 WHIP in an age-inappropriate league in 2012, is a non-prospect.  Mortensen is worth a little bit....perhaps a 36-year ex-shortstop paid $6m/year?  ;-) 

    We obviously disagree on the relative value of these 4 guys.  Any views out there?  I'd love to hear Hill's analysis.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    Mortensen would help the Mariners more than Smoak in 2013.  That is how I look at it, and that is what the Mariners would have to look at.  How much production will Smoak provide, now that he is behind Morales on the depth chart and will be fighting with Ibanez, Montero, Carp and Jaso for time at 1B and DH versus how much production would Mortensen (same age, roughly and same salary, roughly) provide, and which will be more important to the team. 

    Plus, the Mariners would also have to see whether adding Britton and Wilson bring any extra value and potential production to make an opening on their 40-man roster worth it to them.  If their valuation of them is as low as yours, then they have no interest in adding either to the deal.  That is especially true if they would have to DFA players they value more highly to make room for them.

    I think where you and I really disagree is that I value pitching quite highly and you value Smoak's ability to hit the occasional long ball quite highly.  A guy who has an OBP lower than .300, who might hit 19-20 HRs while striking out 130-150 times a season is of questionable value to me.  If you can get him for cheap and take a flyer on him, then great. 

    I am not even sure Mortensen is cheap compensation, but at least the Sox have a surplus at the back of their bullpen and would likely NOT miss Mortensen's production much.  But losing more depth by trading Wilson and Britton (I find it interesting that you write him off as insignificant talent while Soxprospects had him ranked in the top 10 prior to adding De LaRosa to their rankings), both also relievers is not good business, IMO.  Trade 3 relievers and suddenly that surplus becomes a possible concern.  Now, if Smoak doesn't work out, you've created a potential problem for yourself.  That is not taking a flyer, that is taking a risk.  A risk I would not want to see Ben make, and I do not think he will take.  Like I said, Mortensen and a spare OFer. 

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    Just for fun, compare career hitting numbers:

    Player A DOB 12-5-86 1421 PA, .223/.306/.377/.683, 92 OPS+

    Player B DOB 5-02-85 1733 PA, .239/.302/.418/.720, 89 OPS+

    And their 2012 numbers:

    Player A 483 PA, 49 R, 19 HR, 51 RBI, .217/.290/.364/.654, 87 OPS+

    Player B 448 PA, 55 R, 25 HR, 59 RBI, .222/.288/.454/.742, 95 OPS+

    Player A is Justin Smoak and Player B is Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

    Given their starkly contrasting positional values, it's not surprising that Smoak has been valued at 0.0 WAR in 355 career games while Saltalamacchia has been valued at 3.9 WAR in 474 career games, including a WAR of 2.0 in 121 games last season.

    One could argue that Saltalamacchia is as good an option at firstbase for the Red Sox in 2013 as Smoak would be.

    In terms of comparative trade value, we'd be looking at four years of Smoak versus one year of Saltalamacchia at a projected salary of $3.9 million. Saltalamacchia's value may depend largely on whether another team views him as a defensively competent catcher. The two-year, $6.2 million contract the Red Sox gave David Ross does not represent a ringing endorsement of Saltalamacchia (just as the Seattle trade for Kendrys Morales was not an endorsement of Smoak).

    Would the Red Sox trade one year of Saltalamacchia for a pitcher the caliber of Clayton Mortensen, Drake Britton or Alex Wilson? Would the Mariners trade four years of Smoak for the same?

    The Red Sox and Mariners probably don't match up well in a trade because each team has bullpen surplus. Seattle needs an innings-eating starter and Boston has none to spare.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to parhunter55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Mortensen would help the Mariners more than Smoak in 2013.  That is how I look at it, and that is what the Mariners would have to look at.  How much production will Smoak provide, now that he is behind Morales on the depth chart and will be fighting with Ibanez, Montero, Carp and Jaso for time at 1B and DH versus how much production would Mortensen (same age, roughly and same salary, roughly) provide, and which will be more important to the team. 

    Plus, the Mariners would also have to see whether adding Britton and Wilson bring any extra value and potential production to make an opening on their 40-man roster worth it to them.  If their valuation of them is as low as yours, then they have no interest in adding either to the deal.  That is especially true if they would have to DFA players they value more highly to make room for them.

    I think where you and I really disagree is that I value pitching quite highly and you value Smoak's ability to hit the occasional long ball quite highly.  A guy who has an OBP lower than .300, who might hit 19-20 HRs while striking out 130-150 times a season is of questionable value to me.  If you can get him for cheap and take a flyer on him, then great. 

    I am not even sure Mortensen is cheap compensation, but at least the Sox have a surplus at the back of their bullpen and would likely NOT miss Mortensen's production much.  But losing more depth by trading Wilson and Britton (I find it interesting that you write him off as insignificant talent while Soxprospects had him ranked in the top 10 prior to adding De LaRosa to their rankings), both also relievers is not good business, IMO.  Trade 3 relievers and suddenly that surplus becomes a possible concern.  Now, if Smoak doesn't work out, you've created a potential problem for yourself.  That is not taking a flyer, that is taking a risk.  A risk I would not want to see Ben make, and I do not think he will take.  Like I said, Mortensen and a spare OFer. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I do not value anything higher than pitching!  I just think Wilson and Britton are nothing prospects, and Mortensen has a little bit of value but waaayyy less than Smoak's remaining potential.  

    Again, I agree 100% with your statement "If you can get him for cheap and take a flyer on him, then great."  We just hugely disagree on the 3 names another poster suggested and I used as an example. 

     
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    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    No doubt, the name "Mortenson" will get the Mariner GM to salavate.

    [/QUOTE]

    • It's "Mortensen".
    • "e" is six keys away from "o" so it's not a typo, it's ignorance.
    • It's "salivate".
    • "i" is 7 keys and 1 row away from "a" so it's not a typo, it's ignorance.

    How's that brilliant legal career going?

     
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    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What's your view of Smoak vs. Middlebrooks?

    [/QUOTE]


     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to parhunter55's comment:

    If not Smoak, perhaps Carp.  Whichever could be had for a surplus reliever.  But only if Napoli deal falls through.  (Though Carp might be worth having around for the LHH power hitting OF/1B that the Sox profess to be looking for, regardless of how Napoli deal shakes out,)


    One problem is that the Red Sox and Mariners don't match up well for a trade. Seattle needs a leadoff-hitting or slugging outfielder, as well as an innings-eating starter, and Boston can't be of much help.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Just for fun, compare career hitting numbers:

    Player A DOB 12-5-86 1421 PA, .223/.306/.377/.683, 92 OPS+

    Player B DOB 5-02-85 1733 PA, .239/.302/.418/.720, 89 OPS+

    And their 2012 numbers:

    Player A 483 PA, 49 R, 19 HR, 51 RBI, .217/.290/.364/.654, 87 OPS+

    Player B 448 PA, 55 R, 25 HR, 59 RBI, .222/.288/.454/.742, 95 OPS+

    Player A is Justin Smoak and Player B is Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

    Given their starkly contrasting positional values, it's not surprising that Smoak has been valued at 0.0 WAR in 355 career games while Saltalamacchia has been valued at 3.9 WAR in 474 career games, including a WAR of 2.0 in 121 games last season.

    One could argue that Saltalamacchia is as good an option at firstbase for the Red Sox in 2013 as Smoak would be.

    In terms of comparative trade value, we'd be looking at four years of Smoak vs. one year of Saltalamacchia at a projected salary of $3.9 million. Saltalamacchia's value may depend largely on whether another team views him as a defensively competent catcher. The two-year, $6.2 million contract the Red Sox gave David Ross does not represent a ringing endorsement of Saltalamacchia (just as the Seattle trade for Kendrys Morales was not an endorsement of Smoak).

    Would the Red Sox trade one year of Saltalamacchia for a pitcher the caliber of Clayton Mortensen, Drake Britton or Alex Wilson? Would the Mariners trade four years of Smoak for the same?

    The Red Sox and Mariners probably don't match up well in a trade because each team has bullpen surplus. Seattle needs an innings-eating starter and Boston has none to spare.

    [/QUOTE]


    Great analysis, hill.

    But there is a major flaw here as well.  Smoak is behind Morales, and perhaps even Carp (as he got the chance to start only because Carp was injured twice last season) on the Mariners' depth chart at a position that can be filled in so many ways a team does not have too risk giving up to much to fill the position.  Salty, on the other hand, is still #1 on the Sox's depth chart at a position that is so hard to fill that teams routinely overpay in an effort to find competent players to fill the position.  No.  Mortensen would not be enough to land Salty, who is one of the better players (and still considered young) at his position...better than league average.  And adding Britton and Wilson would do nothing to tip that balance, either, IME.

    But Smoak is not league average.  Any team that takes him of the Mariner's hands is taking a flyer on him.  No sense in giving up much value in that case. 

    You do make an important point in that the Mariners do not have bullpen issues so offering a bullpen arm is not going to entice them much.  Perhaps Iglesias for Smoak.  But then, I would want some young prospect of theirs in case Iglesias goes on to have a long career as a stellar SS for them (I admit to ignorance of 30 year-old Brendan Ryan's fielding prowess but am assuming that Iglesias is the superior glove man and can hit at least as well--Ryan hit .194 last season and .248 the previous season, while their backup, Andino, hit .211).

     
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    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    Scroll down thread.

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Seattle needs an innings-eating starter and Boston has none to spare.

    It's "take flier", not "take a flyer". A comma is needed after "starter".  How is that brilliant fudge making career going?

    [/QUOTE]

    Softy.....you just responded to posts by Hill and Par, confusing them with a single post from me.  Tough day in court today?

     
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    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to parhunter55's comment:

    If not Smoak, perhaps Carp.  Whichever could be had for a surplus reliever.  But only if Napoli deal falls through.  (Though Carp might be worth having around for the LHH power hitting OF/1B that the Sox profess to be looking for, regardless of how Napoli deal shakes out,)



    One problem is that the Red Sox and Mariners don't match up well for a trade. Seattle needs a leadoff-hitting or slugging outfielder, as well as an innings-eating starter, and Boston can't be of much help.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Excellent point.  I do think Seattle could use an upgrade at SS.  And the Sox might be able to help there.  But my overall point is that Smoak AND Carp are excess baggage for the Mariners.  Either one might be worth taking a flyer on, as both play a position of need for the Sox and have some pop, but I would not want to give up more than a redundant piece. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    In the last 30 years, there have been 55 first baseman (including Smoak) who have been given 1,000+ plate appearances through their age 25 season. Every single one of them hit better than Smoak has, and we’re not just talking raw numbers that can be explained away by Safeco Field or the change in run environments. By wRC+, which accounts for both a player’s home park and the average performance of the league at the time, Smoak’s 87 is the worst of the 55 players on the list. Travis Lee was better. Greg Colbrunn was better. Casey Kotchman was better. John Mabrywas better. Conor Jackson was better. Brad Fullmer was better. Yes, there are examples of guys who sucked early and then developed later. Erik Karros was lousy through age 26, then put together a nice five year run from 27-31, including two years where he was a legitimate all-star. Tino Martinez didn’t have his first really good year until he was 27, and then he had a nice little peak for a few years after that. Carlos Pena bounced around the league until he was 29 before turning into a monster. So, it’s not impossible that Justin Smoak will eventually become a fairly useful player. There’s a few problems, though. The obvious one is the point we’ve already made – all of those guys were better through age 25 than Smoak, and they all produced at around an average clip before turning into above average hitters. Smoak hasn’t done that for more than a few weeks at a time. Here and there, he gives glimpses of being good, but over a consistent period of time, he’s never been more than just okay. All of those guys improved substantially, but they had long stretches earlier in their career where they were actually good. Smoak has never had a long stretch of being a good Major League hitter. Beyond that, though, it’s worth noting that even the peaks of the guys who did improve weren’t all that great. Karros had +5 win seasons at 27 and 31, but from 28-30, he was basically an average player. Martinez had two +5 win seasons at 27 and 29, but was more of a +3 win player at 28, 30, and 31. These are the best case scenarios, and they were more solid players than stars. You wouldn’t mind having their peak years, but they weren’t franchise first baseman, and they didn’t have very long peaks even after they took a step forward.http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/06/26/giving-up-on-justin-smoak/

    The same author (Dave Cameron) followed up that June 2012 analysis with this paragraph two weeks ago:

    "That's why there's room on this roster for Justin Smoak. As a switch-hitter, he can give you another right-handed bat against southpaws, but he also gives the option of getting another left-handed bat in there against tough righties on days when you want to give Montero a break from swinging at sliders in the dirt. He can get enough at-bats against both RHPs and LHPs to prove whether or not his September surge was a fluke or not, and if he performs really well, his role can always grow as the season goes on."

    http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/12/20/the-end-of-mike-carp/

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    That was a really interesting read, hill.  And kind of makes Carp my preferred flier/flyer.  Sounds like Carp could be had for very cheap.  The question is, do the Sox have any spare parts that have value for the Mariners.  Perhaps not.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to parhunter55's comment:

    Excellent point.  I do think Seattle could use an upgrade at SS.  And the Sox might be able to help there.  But my overall point is that Smoak AND Carp are excess baggage for the Mariners.  Either one might be worth taking a flyer on, as both play a position of need for the Sox and have some pop, but I would not want to give up more than a redundant piece.


    The Mariners still have one year of Brendan Ryan* (whose WAR** over the past two seasons has exceeded the WAR of Hanley Ramirez) before turning the reins over to Nick Franklin or Brad Miller, Seattle shortstop prospects who ranked No. 16 and No. 25 in October on the preliminary list of Top 50 hitting prospects compiled by John Sickels at Minor League Ball:   http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/8/3474442/preliminary-top-50-hitting-prospects-for-2013

    Jose Iglesias is nowhere to be found on the list.

    * named the "best defender in baseball" by The Fielding Bible: http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-winners.asp

    ** Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6073&position=SS http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to parhunter55's comment:

    Excellent point.  I do think Seattle could use an upgrade at SS.  And the Sox might be able to help there.  But my overall point is that Smoak AND Carp are excess baggage for the Mariners.  Either one might be worth taking a flyer on, as both play a position of need for the Sox and have some pop, but I would not want to give up more than a redundant piece.



    The Mariners still have one year of Brendan Ryan* (whose WAR** over the past two seasons has exceeded the WAR of Hanley Ramirez) before turning the reins over to Nick Franklin or Brad Miller, Seattle shortstop prospects who ranked No. 16 and No. 25 in October on the preliminary list of Top 50 hitting prospects compiled by John Sickels at Minor League Ball:

     

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/8/3474442/preliminary-top-50-hitting-prospects-for-2013

    Jose Iglesias is nowhere to be found on the list.

    * named the "best defender in baseball" by The Fielding Bible: http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-winners.asp

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6073&position=SS http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS

    [/QUOTE]


    Good info.  Thx.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    confusing them with a single post from me.  Tough day in court today?

    The confusion is on your part. The words were from your comments. Tough day in the fudge packing factory?

    [/QUOTE]

    Par used the word "flyer" in a post, and Hill wrote "Seattle needs an innings-eating starter and Boston has none to spare".  I wrote "Tough day in court today" in a completely separate post.  Have you considered taking notes or getting home help?

    BTW, as ever, I'm appalled but unsurprised by your grotesque, homophobic comments re fudge and factories.  Consider yourself reported for yet more violations of common decency.

     

     
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    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:

    What's your view of Smoak vs. Middlebrooks?


    Will Middlebrooks had a far better MLB debut than Justin Smoak had.

    I'm still not sold on either player. Here are their minor league numbers:

    WM 1706 PA, .276/.333/.454/.787, 128 BB (7.5%), 449 (26.3%)

    JS 855 PA, .279/.400/.449/.848, 138 BB (16.1%), 148 K (17.3%)

    Draw whatever conclusion you wish on those contrasting numbers.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    confusing them with a single post from me.  Tough day in court today?

    The confusion is on your part. The words were from your comments. Tough day in the fudge packing factory?

    [/QUOTE]

    ""Fudge packing"?  This guy is the most bigoted, evil person here.  I assume you know that his "fudge" reference is to anal sex.  Please ban him again (35th time?).  He'll crawl back again, but at least send the message that he's wrong and unwelcome if you can't ban him permanently."

     

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