How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from boboinfla. Show boboinfla's posts

    How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I believe Ells is a goner, but a 4 year deal with Pedey type money may be offered but certainly rejected by Boras.'Tek was a Boras client and told him to only deal with Sox. Latest injury does not give Ells a whole lot of leverage.. JBJ is not ready.

     Drew and Nap must be kept IMO. I believe Ben will keep both,but it may get costly. Yanks have money to spend, but Nap will not be a target,. They very well go after the other 2.

     Obviously, we must keep eyes on the next 6 games, but Ben has to play chess and plan ahead.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    QO for Ellsbury, but he is probably gone and will definitely be missed.  Drew will stay, I think, with a good offer.   If Drew stays, I think Napoli goes so the Sox can play Middlebrooks and Bogaerts at the corners.  If Drew and Napoli both stay, Bogaerts will have to go to the outfield.  If Napoli stays and Drew doesn't, the Sox have MBR at 3B, Bogaerts at SS, and Napoli at 1B.  Napoli has held up very well this year and will get all his bonuses for a total package of $13M, but that hip has to still be a concern.  So my guess is only Drew will return, but you absolutely cannot take that to the bank. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    Im thinking they go with Bogaerts at SS next year and offer Drew a QO. Ive been thre biggest Drew supposrter here, but I dont think they keep him because it will take a 3-4 year deal.

    Naps might get a 2, possibly 3yr deal because the Sox dont have much as far as 1b in the system. I think they would rather go 2yrs though. If he doesnt take an immediate offer from the Sox, they will offer a QO.

    I think they offer Ells a similar deal to pedey, but 5-6 years at 14M. Another Qo will be offered.

    One name you didnt mention is salty. I think they will, and should , sign him to a 3-4 year deal. Hes worth it and has earned it IMHO. somewhere around 8-10M depending on years.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from boboinfla. Show boboinfla's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Im thinking they go with Bogaerts at SS next year and offer Drew a QO. Ive been thre biggest Drew supposrter here, but I dont think they keep him because it will take a 3-4 year deal.

    Naps might get a 2, possibly 3yr deal because the Sox dont have much as far as 1b in the system. I think they would rather go 2yrs though. If he doesnt take an immediate offer from the Sox, they will offer a QO.

    I think they offer Ells a similar deal to pedey, but 5-6 years at 14M. Another Qo will be offered.

    One name you didnt mention is salty. I think they will, and should , sign him to a 3-4 year deal. Hes worth it and has earned it IMHO. somewhere around 8-10M depending on years.



    Good point on Salty, Nap won't get an offer for more than 2 years. Bogaerts and Mids on the corners sounds good, but that means a strong offer to Drew. Only giving him a 1 year offer was smart,but he paid off in spades. Drew has the Sox in a bind if Nap goes.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I really think that they should certainly re-sign Salty....the guy has been VERY solid all year and good catchers nowadays do not grow on trees.  As for Napps I agree that 2 years would be great.  If Papi retires next year Naps would be a perfect DH guy.  AS for Drew....other than Southy I have been his giggest supporter....I would love for them to re-sign him.  He could play SS while boggy, Naps and WMB kind of swap around here and there.  It gives them a lot of depth and let's face it...injuries happem, having infield depth is never a bad thing!

    Els......I like him and would love to have him back but it's looking like a QO will happen and that's about it.  I would really like to see the Sox look at an OF'r with some power via trade this offseason and bolster their BP depth.  We have some EXCELLENT trading chips in the minors and would love to see Ben work a little magic (although admitedly....his trading has not really gone as well as his FA signings....)

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I'd offer Ellsbury $80M/5 with a club option 6th year at $12M with a $2.5M buyout. (Comes to $82.5M/5 or $92M/6). He will walk, and we get a comp pick.

    I'd offer Napoli $24M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $28M/2 with a team option 3rd year at $12M with a $2M buyout. (Comes to $26-30M/2 or $36-40M/4). He may walk, and we get a pick: he may stay, and we keep Middlebrooks at 3B (see Drew).

    I'd offer Drew $36M/3, but only if Napoli walks and we can move Middlebrooks to 1B and Bogey to 3B. If he refuses, I'd offer him a 1 year QO and get the comp pick if he walks, or trade someone if he takes it.

    I'd offer Salty $33M/3 or $40M/4. If he refuses, I'd offer him a QO and see what happens.

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    The more I think about it the more I'm kinda open to WMB at first and Boagerts at 3rd.

    But I highly doubt the Sox are going to start two rookies (well 1 rookie and 1 second year youngster) at 2 positions both are not natural too.

    It will be interesting to see what they do if they do decide to sign Drew.  But I really think the Sox are just going to take the draft pick and let him walk.

    I actually think everyone gets a QO at this point, a couple months ago I'd be uncertain about Salty and Naps, and even Drew back in June but at this point all 4 are getting it.  Obviously Ellsbury Walks but I think at least 1 of Salty/Drew/Napoli get resigned, but I doubt all 3.  

    Sox will be looking at picking up 2-3 extra 1st round picks....sweeeeet!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew


    Drew was a band aid, a one year and out guy. I would consider myself lucky ( if I was Cherrybomb) that I got one good season out of this guy ( well, 1/2 a season, but who's really counting, right?). Iglesias is gone because Bogaerts is spposed to be our next SS, Drew lacks versatility , he doesn't play 3rd or 2nd...so see ya later....I'd rather have versatile Aviles back as spare infielder.

    Napoli is only a keeper if they have nothing better at 1st base, and they probably won't....he's done fine, I like him. I originally hated the 3 year deal, but wouldn't mind if he was here for two more years, I wouldn't keep him beyond that.

    Ellsbury can go to Japan for all I care, sure he's a good leadoff hitter when healthy, but seldom can get a full season out of this guy and when hes's hurt , it's always longer than expected. Boras thinks he's Willie Mays , because players like this are his meal ticket....and he eats real well. I feel Bradley will fill his shoes eventually ( possibly not right away , but I'm a patient man, the rest of you, not so much).

     

    "Advertising is the rattling of a stick inside a swill bucket."- George Orwell

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I do not think that the Sox offer Drew or Naploi qualifying offers, and that they both become free agents.

    The Sox could look to re-sign either but for not more than two years and about 15M for those two years if either guy accepts, but I doubt that either accepts.  Also, i don't think that the Sox really want both of them coming back at 10 M or more each per season.

    Drew has had a much better second half, but still is only a .250 hitter who will continue to live at the bottom of a good batting order.  More than two years on a new contract is way too long unless he buys into becoming a utility player in the second year.  Bogaerts is ready to play short, could play 3rd again next year, but should play short.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from bostonfan191646. Show bostonfan191646's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I think things could go a lot of different directions with Ellsbury. The market might not be there for him. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from NLU75. Show NLU75's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'd offer Ellsbury $80M/5 with a club option 6th year at $12M with a $2.5M buyout. (Comes to $82.5M/5 or $92M/6). He will walk, and we get a comp pick.

    I'd offer Napoli $24M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $28M/2 with a team option 3rd year at $12M with a $2M buyout. (Comes to $26-30M/2 or $36-40M/4). He may walk, and we get a pick: he may stay, and we keep Middlebrooks at 3B (see Drew).

    I'd offer Drew $36M/3, but only if Napoli walks and we can move Middlebrooks to 1B and Bogey to 3B. If he refuses, I'd offer him a 1 year QO and get the comp pick if he walks, or trade someone if he takes it.

    I'd offer Salty $33M/3 or $40M/4. If he refuses, I'd offer him a QO and see what happens.

    Sox4ever

    Moon, Nap is coming back next year. He has a bad hip & he has admitted it . He has the same thing Bo Jackson has, his hip will die & will need a hip transplant. No one is gonna give him a long term contract, he will get one with incentives like this year. So don't offer Drew anything he might accept it. We loose Ells, & get Bradley Jr to take his place. Now we need a real Left Fielder any suggestions.


     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    The only player the Red Sox should pursue aggressively is Salty because it potentially creates an  irreplaceable void on the roster.  Most of the production from the other players is more easily replaceable by who they already have or what might obtainable on the market without going Crawford-like or Anaheim nuts.  For now, Ellsbury can be replaced by a combo of JBJ and Victorino, and perhaps the signing of a big stick righty corner outfielder like Hunter Pence, although this is a potentially aforementioned nutso FA scenario like Jason Werth.  A big stick righty also gives them leverage when dealing with Napoli.  Without understanding the intricacies of his hip injury, the Red Sox may have been fortunate to have gotten as much playing time and production as they have out of him this season.  I don't know how much I'd be willing to invest in and rely on Napoli going forward.  If there's a surplus on the left side of the infield, it may be time for WMB to bring a first baseman's mitt to ST with Xander moving to third.  If not, they could probably piece a decent platoon together with Carp (or reasonable facsimile) and a player with a profile like Youkilis, but one who would more likely hold up for entire season.  For Drew, I'd be willing to let him walk if he's going to get a good size multi-year deal.  As insurance against Xander not being ready for prime time at short, they could sign a sub/starter with a profile like Mike Aviles.  I also wouldn't mind a shortstop with base-stealing prowess and decent OBP, who could maybe bat leadoff to make up for some of what they'd lose without Ellsbury.  I realize I may be asking for too much here.

    Note: Since I invest  a lot of time watching and following the Red Sox, I don't follow the rest of  MLB closely enough to make a fair assessment on players around the league with appealing profiles who may be available and obtainable.  For those who more or less agree with my assessment, I appreciate you providing the names that may fit the bill.  Thank you in advance.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'd offer Ellsbury $80M/5 with a club option 6th year at $12M with a $2.5M buyout. (Comes to $82.5M/5 or $92M/6). He will walk, and we get a comp pick.

    I'd offer Napoli $24M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $28M/2 with a team option 3rd year at $12M with a $2M buyout. (Comes to $26-30M/2 or $36-40M/4). He may walk, and we get a pick: he may stay, and we keep Middlebrooks at 3B (see Drew).

    I'd offer Drew $36M/3, but only if Napoli walks and we can move Middlebrooks to 1B and Bogey to 3B. If he refuses, I'd offer him a 1 year QO and get the comp pick if he walks, or trade someone if he takes it.

    I'd offer Salty $33M/3 or $40M/4. If he refuses, I'd offer him a QO and see what happens.

    Sox4ever



    So you are offering the free agents $51M for next year. Assuming they all sign and assuming some non-tenders such as Bailey, and buyouts such as Thornton. The Red Sox payroll will be in the neighborhood of $195M. This also assumes the Red Sox pick up Lester's option.

    In order of importance of signing, my opinion is below:

    1. Salty

    2. Ellsbury (JBJ isn't showing anything and there would be too much burden on Victorino in CF.

    3. Napoli - Depends on offer and how much

    4. Drew - Can fill with less expensive outside option or Bogaerts. Not with $10M+

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    Rumors of Red Sox interest in Cuban 1B Jose Abreu have persisted, but as intriguing as he sounds, that could leave us in the position of relying on three MLB rookies (Bogaerts, Bradley, and Abreu) and a player who has yet to prove himself over a full season (Middlebrooks), and it's rather difficult to see that happening.

    I'd be more than happy to have any or all of Ellsbury, Salty, Napoli, and Drew back if the prices were right...if I had to guess I'd say Salty and Napoli will be retained and the other two walk with QO's.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew


    Other then giving Ellsbury a QO, I am still not sure what I would do. My mind has changed numerous times. Since there is still two weeks plus playoffs to go, probably will change these opinions further.....

    Ellsbury gets QO. Offer 5-85 and watch him leave. There is maybe a 20% chance he takes it. If so, thats cool.

    Drew gets QO. Make no other offer. Its 50-50 whether he takes it. Its good if he does and good if he doesn't. If he plays slightly worse down the stretch, don't make QO.

    Napoli does not get QO. This is because I prefer Jose Abreu and I think Napoli will take the offer if given a QO. If we don't sign Abreu and Drew, then I do offer Napoli a deal. My offer would be something like 1-13. I would give Napoli a QO if he plays better down the stretch and Abreu is not the answer.

    Salty does not get QO.  I would offer Carlos Ruiz 1-10. If that fails I would offer the same deal to Salty. Then look at McCann for 4-56. If not, I would look to trade for a defensive minded vet like Ryan Hanigan. Lavarnway and Vasquez are also options, to go along with Ross. I could still give Salty a QO if he plays better down the stretch.

    If we fail to sign more then one of Ellsbury-Abreu-McCann-Drew-Napoli, then I would look at Choo[4-66].

    Would be thrilled if it only took 6-75 for Abreu. Would go as high as 6-100. He would be my number 1 target in free agency. However, he is less of a priority with Napoli and Middlebrooks coming on strong.  Hopefully, the Abreu decision happens first, so we then can figure out Napoli afterward.

    We have money to spend, but don't have to spend it to feel great about next year. Great position to be in. Would not offer long term contracts for too many guys. Would like two or three big money players added, just not sure who yet. Want to see more of Bradley, could be open to increasing offer to Ellsbury.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to charliedarling's comment:

    I do not think that the Sox offer Drew or Naploi qualifying offers, and that they both become free agents.

    The Sox could look to re-sign either but for not more than two years and about 15M for those two years if either guy accepts, but I doubt that either accepts.  Also, i don't think that the Sox really want both of them coming back at 10 M or more each per season.

    Drew has had a much better second half, but still is only a .250 hitter who will continue to live at the bottom of a good batting order.  More than two years on a new contract is way too long unless he buys into becoming a utility player in the second year.  Bogaerts is ready to play short, could play 3rd again next year, but should play short.



    Why not? Theres a good Chance that both Drew and Napoli would decline, and if they don't Drew is easily tradeable and Napoli fills a hole.  Considering they would either Trade/or get a draft pick I think it's a no brainer they get a QO.  Don't just look at Drews AVG. look at his SLG and OPS....now compare it to the league average for a SS.....yes he is an above average offensive SS with above average defense this year which means if does accept the offer, he's easily tradeable. But we likely net a pick

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    big stick righty corner outfielder like Hunter Pence


    Not a big stick, but a bigger than average stick. Career .814 OPS 



    Fair enough.  Led me to take a gander at his stats.  I see some reasons to be prudent before offering him the monster contract that FAs in their prime usually get.  Very disappointing .339 career OBP.  Not much of a bases on balls guy, although his OBP might get a lift playing in Fenway in the middle of that lineup.  

    How do you think he'd fare covering right field in Fenway?  Oh, and what's his ERA against lefties (reference to lame and annoying Windows8 commercial previously discussed on another thread)?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    Why would we spend money to keep Drew, when we can play the games top SS prospect next year for the league minimum?  Oh....and probably get an additional 1st round draft pick in the process. 

    No brainer if you ask me. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to boboinfla's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Im thinking they go with Bogaerts at SS next year and offer Drew a QO. Ive been thre biggest Drew supposrter here, but I dont think they keep him because it will take a 3-4 year deal.

    Naps might get a 2, possibly 3yr deal because the Sox dont have much as far as 1b in the system. I think they would rather go 2yrs though. If he doesnt take an immediate offer from the Sox, they will offer a QO.

    I think they offer Ells a similar deal to pedey, but 5-6 years at 14M. Another Qo will be offered.

    One name you didnt mention is salty. I think they will, and should , sign him to a 3-4 year deal. Hes worth it and has earned it IMHO. somewhere around 8-10M depending on years.

     



    Good point on Salty, Nap won't get an offer for more than 2 years. Bogaerts and Mids on the corners sounds good, but that means a strong offer to Drew. Only giving him a 1 year offer was smart,but he paid off in spades. Drew has the Sox in a bind if Nap goes.

     



    I disagree that the Sox are in a bind in that situation.  Every indication has the Sox playing WMB at 3B and Bogaerts at SS next year.  They will either offer Naps a short contract or hope he accepts a QO, if he walks here is a list of FA:

    First basemen

    Jeff Baker (33)
    Corey Hart (32)
    Todd Helton (40)
    Mike Napoli (32)
    Paul Konerko (38)
    Casey Kotchman (31)
    Adam Lind (30) - $7MM club option with a $2MM buyout
    James Loney (30)
    Kendrys Morales (30)
    Justin Morneau (33)
    Mike Morse (32)
    Lyle Overbay (37)
    Carlos Pena (36)
    Mark Reynolds (30)
    Kevin Youkilis (35)

     

    The Sox will find another stop gap, and let's also not forget that the Sox are still one of the front runners for Cuban defector Jose Abreau. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    The way I look at it we have 4 big FA this year:  Mike Napoli, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Stephen Drew.  The question is who do we offer a contract and who do we offer a qualifying offer to.  

    Jacoby Ellsbury - he gets a QO, that is a no brainer because there is about a 99% chance he nets us a draft pick.  He gets a contract offer because he would fill a serious need, but the Sox should be prepared to let him walk and take the pick if the cost is too higher.  We have our #2 ranked prospect and a top 50 in all of baseball who is borderline MLB ready and presumably ready by next year.  Prediction: Ellsbury finds more money elsewhere, turns down a QO and the Sox pick up a draft pick.

    Stephen Drew - Drew has some fans, and some detractors but the facts remain.  He's been an above average ss before and the argument was that a clean bill of health would once again make him one of the leagues top SS.  He's not Troy Tulowitski good, but he's 8th in WAR among MLB SS, and he has less at bats than 6 of the 7 above him.  He also 16th in UZR/150 which puts him in the middle of the pack.  SO he's an above average offensive SS and an average defensive SS. So I would take a gamble on giving him a Qualifying offer and him declining it, because with the season he's had if he does accept it and the Sox are adamant about starting Bogaerts he's easily tradeable. Prediction: A QO is made and declined, the Red Sox net a Draft pick and start Bogaerts in 2014.

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia - catching is hard to find, even an average catcher is really hard to find.  A lot of people might cite some flaws in Saltalamacchia's game and while their convictions would probably be well justified Salty would still be a highly coveted and hard to replace FA.  The only catcher better on the market is Brain McCann, who could represent an upgrade defensively and offensively but that may come at a steep price.  The Sox have some nice prospects in the minors behind the Dish in Blake Swihart, Christain Vasquez, and John Denney, but none of them have stood out as either a clear cut MLB starter or they are further than a year away to project as thus.  Prediction: Salty gets offered a QO, turns it down and is resigned on a 4 year deal.

    Mike Napoli - He's a streaky hitter and he's been subject of praise and ridicule this season.  the reality is the Sox have no one coming in behind Napoli who could put up similiar production.  There are some in house options in Carp, possibly Lava or even Nava has taken some innings in there.  But none of those guys have shown to be productive vs. both LHP and RHP on a regular basis and offer a significant downgrade on Defense.  While the FA market isn't flooded with 1bman there are a lot of players who could fill a need for a year or two if Napoli walks but his services would help out the Sox a lot in 2014.  Prediction: The Sox offer Mike Napoli a qualifying offer, while teams would love to have Mike Napoli in their lineup his hip coupled with the loss of a draft pick may deter many of them away.  In the absence of a team with a protected pick having an obvious need at 1st base Napoli may like to come back to Boston for one more year.  Napli accepts. 

     

    The Sox sign Salty, replace Ellsbury and Drew with Bogaerts and JBJ, and bring Mike Napoli back on a one year deal (they very well could just offer him 2 years here, the more I thnk about it the more probable I thnk that may be.) In the process the Sox net 2 picks in at the end of the first round in what is assumed to be the strongest draft in 3 years. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I think Ruiz may be a dark horse here.   If the Sox find that the price for McCann and Salty is just way too high, they will take Ruiz on a one year deal and hope that one of their young catching prospects take a leap forward for 2015.  

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I do not think that the Sox offer Drew or Naploi qualifying offers, and that they both become free agents.

    Both will almost certainly turn down a QO of about $14M/1, so why would we not make the offers, if only to at least get the draft picks by making the offers?

    Sox4ever

     
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