How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I think Ruiz may be a dark horse here.   If the Sox find that the price for McCann and Salty is just way too high, they will take Ruiz on a one year deal and hope that one of their young catching prospects take a leap forward for 2015.  

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I do not think that the Sox offer Drew or Naploi qualifying offers, and that they both become free agents.

    Both will almost certainly turn down a QO of about $14M/1, so why would we not make the offers, if only to at least get the draft picks by making the offers?

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to NLU75's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I'd offer Ellsbury $80M/5 with a club option 6th year at $12M with a $2.5M buyout. (Comes to $82.5M/5 or $92M/6). He will walk, and we get a comp pick.

    I'd offer Napoli $24M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $28M/2 with a team option 3rd year at $12M with a $2M buyout. (Comes to $26-30M/2 or $36-40M/4). He may walk, and we get a pick: he may stay, and we keep Middlebrooks at 3B (see Drew).

    I'd offer Drew $36M/3, but only if Napoli walks and we can move Middlebrooks to 1B and Bogey to 3B. If he refuses, I'd offer him a 1 year QO and get the comp pick if he walks, or trade someone if he takes it.

    I'd offer Salty $33M/3 or $40M/4. If he refuses, I'd offer him a QO and see what happens.

    Sox4ever

     

    Moon, Nap is coming back next year. He has a bad hip & he has admitted it . He has the same thing Bo Jackson has, his hip will die & will need a hip transplant. No one is gonna give him a long term contract, he will get one with incentives like this year. So don't offer Drew anything he might accept it. We loose Ells, & get Bradley Jr to take his place. Now we need a real Left Fielder any suggestions.


     

    [/QUOTE]

    Perhaps, but even with the bad hip, Naps has a career high PAs.

    The wonders of not catching anymore.

    I'd love to have him back at 1 year deals. I hope you are right.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to ADG's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I'd offer Ellsbury $80M/5 with a club option 6th year at $12M with a $2.5M buyout. (Comes to $82.5M/5 or $92M/6). He will walk, and we get a comp pick.

    I'd offer Napoli $24M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $28M/2 with a team option 3rd year at $12M with a $2M buyout. (Comes to $26-30M/2 or $36-40M/4). He may walk, and we get a pick: he may stay, and we keep Middlebrooks at 3B (see Drew).

    I'd offer Drew $36M/3, but only if Napoli walks and we can move Middlebrooks to 1B and Bogey to 3B. If he refuses, I'd offer him a 1 year QO and get the comp pick if he walks, or trade someone if he takes it.

    I'd offer Salty $33M/3 or $40M/4. If he refuses, I'd offer him a QO and see what happens.

    Sox4ever

     



    So you are offering the free agents $51M for next year. Assuming they all sign and assuming some non-tenders such as Bailey, and buyouts such as Thornton. The Red Sox payroll will be in the neighborhood of $195M. This also assumes the Red Sox pick up Lester's option.

     

    In order of importance of signing, my opinion is below:

    1. Salty

    2. Ellsbury (JBJ isn't showing anything and there would be too much burden on Victorino in CF.

    3. Napoli - Depends on offer and how much

    4. Drew - Can fill with less expensive outside option or Bogaerts. Not with $10M+

    [/QUOTE]

    Ellsbury will not take my offer. 

    If we go over the cap by a little, it's no big deal, but we can also trade Dempster or lackey for salary relief.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I do not think that the Sox offer Drew or Naploi qualifying offers, and that they both become free agents.

    Both will almost certainly turn down a QO of about $14M/1, so why would we not make the offers, if only to at least get the draft picks by making the offers?

    Sox4ever



    You think Drew turns down a 50% raise for one year?  He is looking atsybe $30mill over 3.  Why not get hslf in one?

     

    I don't see why Napoli is a guaratee to reject either.

     

    Sftet the troubles Bourn, Lohse, LaRoche and Soriano had getting deals after rejecting a QO, players won't be rejecting them so much.  I think MLB players have come to hate the QO as much a s NFL players used to hate the Franchise Tag. ..

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to BigPapiforever's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    The more I think about it the more I'm kinda open to WMB at first and Boagerts at 3rd.

    But I highly doubt the Sox are going to start two rookies (well 1 rookie and 1 second year youngster) at 2 positions both are not natural too.

    It will be interesting to see what they do if they do decide to sign Drew.  But I really think the Sox are just going to take the draft pick and let him walk.

    I actually think everyone gets a QO at this point, a couple months ago I'd be uncertain about Salty and Naps, and even Drew back in June but at this point all 4 are getting it.  Obviously Ellsbury Walks but I think at least 1 of Salty/Drew/Napoli get resigned, but I doubt all 3.  

    Sox will be looking at picking up 2-3 extra 1st round picks....sweeeeet!

     




    I doubt you see will at first but if you do it will not be at the beginning of the season.  Will gave a great interview the other day on how pitching in the minor leagues is generic.  He talked about how he had to learn to adjust in the bigs once there was a "book" on him.   It is going to take more than the rest of the season to see if Boagaerts can hit well once there is a book on him. 

     

    Will is the third baseman come opening day and most likely Drew is your ss.  We all saw JBJ tear up spring training only to be a bust at the plate in the bigs.  One homer at Yankee stadium doesn't make boagie the leading candidate for ss come next opening day.

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes one homer doesn't make Bogaerts the starting SS on opening day.  The fact that he has flown throught the Sox system and reached the big leagues as a 20 year old and is holding his own is why he's the opening day SS.  He's arguable the best prospect in all of baseball (most would probably put Bryon Buxton above him) Even before ranked the #2 prospect in all of baseball he scouted as a highly talented kid who could potentially be a perennial all star type player. He moved up the system fast and showed very little time to adjust to every single level and now there is no where else to go except in the starting lineup come 2014.

    I honestly don't even think this is up for debate, like it or not it's obvious the Organization is going with Bogaerts.  Your not starting the year with him in Pawtucket or on the bench. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from stan17. Show stan17's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Im thinking they go with Bogaerts at SS next year and offer Drew a QO. Ive been thre biggest Drew supposrter here, but I dont think they keep him because it will take a 3-4 year deal.

    Naps might get a 2, possibly 3yr deal because the Sox dont have much as far as 1b in the system. I think they would rather go 2yrs though. If he doesnt take an immediate offer from the Sox, they will offer a QO.

    I think they offer Ells a similar deal to pedey, but 5-6 years at 14M. Another Qo will be offered.

    One name you didnt mention is salty. I think they will, and should , sign him to a 3-4 year deal. Hes worth it and has earned it IMHO. somewhere around 8-10M depending on years.



    Agree completely on Salty, I believe they will resign him at 3-4 yrs. I hope Ells is resigned but I think he's a goner.

    The only way I see Drew sticking around is the team decides to move Will to 1st base which would move Xander to 3rd.

    I do believe they qualify Napoli 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I do not think that the Sox offer Drew or Naploi qualifying offers, and that they both become free agents.

    Both will almost certainly turn down a QO of about $14M/1, so why would we not make the offers, if only to at least get the draft picks by making the offers?

    Sox4ever

     



    You think Drew turns down a 50% raise for one year?  He is looking atsybe $30mill over 3.  Why not get hslf in one?

     

     

    I don't see why Napoli is a guaratee to reject either.

     

    Sftet the troubles Bourn, Lohse, LaRoche and Soriano had getting deals after rejecting a QO, players won't be rejecting them so much.  I think MLB players have come to hate the QO as much a s NFL players used to hate the Franchise Tag. ..

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree, but I think Drew would be easily tradeable so I'd take the chance.  I'd take the chance on Napoli because he would fill a hole.  I'd have no problem taking the pick and signing a stop gap at 1st and if Napoli accepts a QO....good. We can punt the question of the future 1Bman until 2015. 

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    The Sox do have a better plan, and I'm sure it doesn't involve Will Moving to first, and neither do I want that to happen.  Anything can happen several years down the road but WMB is not going to start at first base next year. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I would offer to Napoli over Drew.  Not thst I don't like Drew.  But Napoli does fill a need, it's barely a pay raise, and 10 months ago, the Sox were perfectly willing to 3 yesrs at QO money.  So 2 years is not a big deal.

     

    Drew has earned one, but if you offer it to both,  you have to be prepared for both to accept.

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to notin's comment:

    I would offer to Napoli over Drew.  Not thst I don't like Drew.  But Napoli does fill a need, it's barely a pay raise, and 10 months ago, the Sox were perfectly willing to 3 yesrs at QO money.  So 2 years is not a big deal.

     

    Drew has earned one, but if you offer it to both,  you have to be prepared for both to accept.

     

     



    I agree that there is a chance both accept, but don't you think the Sox could easily trade Drew if he accepts?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    100 million for Abreu? Are you a river boat gambler. Just curious, what do you forecast his career OPS will be in MLB?




    900

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    100 million for Abreu? Are you a river boat gambler. Just curious, what do you forecast his career OPS will be in MLB?

     




    900

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My only concern about Abreau is some scouts have put his bat speed as fringe average.  He attacks mistake pitches from inferior pitching and may struggle when he comes to the MLB.  I'm not saying I'm against the Sox rolling the dice, but I don't think it's a slam dunk he's our answer at first base. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    100 million for Abreu? Are you a river boat gambler. Just curious, what do you forecast his career OPS will be in MLB?

     

     




    900

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My only concern about Abreau is some scouts have put his bat speed as fringe average.  He attacks mistake pitches from inferior pitching and may struggle when he comes to the MLB.  I'm not saying I'm against the Sox rolling the dice, but I don't think it's a slam dunk he's our answer at first base. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That is the main concern with his offense. However, I think his bat speed is better then people think. First, I don't think its possible to have bad bat speed and put up the numbers he put up. Imagine every big leaguer in baseball playing in low A baseball today. How many are going to average a 1400 OPS in a normal hitting environment like say the Sally league? Almost none. Now how many with poor bat speed would?

    I think the main concern is that he likes to drive the ball to the opposite field on fast balls. Many Cuban players do this however. Its actually a good way to hit. I think Cabrera does this a lot. So does Votto. Finally, even if his bat speed isn't great, nobody is perfect. You can still be really good with poor bat speed.

    As for the OPS, he and Cespedas had very similar career tracks. Similar ages and similar length of careers in Cuba. Cespedas had I think an OPS his last 4 years in his prime of something in the upper 1000's. And Abreu was I think in the upper 1300's. About a 300 point difference in OPS over a 4 year sample. Now Cespedas has an 800 OPS in a pitchers park. The math looks great. I could even imagine a 6 year OPS in the upper 900's.

    The one thing I don't think people realise is just how much better Abreu was then every other Cuban hitter in the entire history of Cuban baseball. My main questions with Abreu are not his offense or bat speed. It's his makeup, defense, age, PED's, etc. These are where I have bigger doubts.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    100 million for Abreu? Are you a river boat gambler. Just curious, what do you forecast his career OPS will be in MLB?

     

     

     




    900

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My only concern about Abreau is some scouts have put his bat speed as fringe average.  He attacks mistake pitches from inferior pitching and may struggle when he comes to the MLB.  I'm not saying I'm against the Sox rolling the dice, but I don't think it's a slam dunk he's our answer at first base. 

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That is the main concern with his offense. However, I think his bat speed is better then people think. First, I don't think its possible to have bad bat speed and put up the numbers he put up. Imagine every big leaguer in baseball playing in low A baseball today. How many are going to average a 1400 OPS in a normal hitting environment like say the Sally league? Almost none. Now how many with poor bat speed would?

     

    I think the main concern is that he likes to drive the ball to the opposite field on fast balls. Many Cuban players do this however. Its actually a good way to hit. I think Cabrera does this a lot. So does Votto. Finally, even if his bat speed isn't great, nobody is perfect. You can still be really good with poor bat speed.

    As for the OPS, he and Cespedas had very similar career tracks. Similar ages and similar length of careers in Cuba. Cespedas had I think an OPS his last 4 years in his prime of something in the upper 1000's. And Abreu was I think in the upper 1300's. About a 300 point difference in OPS over a 4 year sample. Now Cespedas has an 800 OPS in a pitchers park. The math looks great. I could even imagine a 6 year OPS in the upper 900's.

    The one thing I don't think people realise is just how much better Abreu was then every other Cuban hitter in the entire history of Cuban baseball. My main questions with Abreu are not his offense or bat speed. It's his makeup, defense, age, PED's, etc. These are where I have bigger doubts.

    [/QUOTE]

    Good points, I don't really know I'm just going by everything I've heard.  It seems that there are conflicting reports on this guy.  I have confidence that the Sox will do there due dilligence, and if they think he's legit they should definitely go for it. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

     

    100 million for Abreu? Are you a river boat gambler. Just curious, what do you forecast his career OPS will be in MLB?

     

     

     

     




    900

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My only concern about Abreau is some scouts have put his bat speed as fringe average.  He attacks mistake pitches from inferior pitching and may struggle when he comes to the MLB.  I'm not saying I'm against the Sox rolling the dice, but I don't think it's a slam dunk he's our answer at first base. 

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That is the main concern with his offense. However, I think his bat speed is better then people think. First, I don't think its possible to have bad bat speed and put up the numbers he put up. Imagine every big leaguer in baseball playing in low A baseball today. How many are going to average a 1400 OPS in a normal hitting environment like say the Sally league? Almost none. Now how many with poor bat speed would?

     

     

    I think the main concern is that he likes to drive the ball to the opposite field on fast balls. Many Cuban players do this however. Its actually a good way to hit. I think Cabrera does this a lot. So does Votto. Finally, even if his bat speed isn't great, nobody is perfect. You can still be really good with poor bat speed.

    As for the OPS, he and Cespedas had very similar career tracks. Similar ages and similar length of careers in Cuba. Cespedas had I think an OPS his last 4 years in his prime of something in the upper 1000's. And Abreu was I think in the upper 1300's. About a 300 point difference in OPS over a 4 year sample. Now Cespedas has an 800 OPS in a pitchers park. The math looks great. I could even imagine a 6 year OPS in the upper 900's.

    The one thing I don't think people realise is just how much better Abreu was then every other Cuban hitter in the entire history of Cuban baseball. My main questions with Abreu are not his offense or bat speed. It's his makeup, defense, age, PED's, etc. These are where I have bigger doubts.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Good points, I don't really know I'm just going by everything I've heard.  It seems that there are conflicting reports on this guy.  I have confidence that the Sox will do there due dilligence, and if they think he's legit they should definitely go for it. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Due dilligence? Absolutely. Like do a private workout where the pitchers throw 95 up and in and see what he does. Hopefully, thats what happened  a few days ago. If he failed that test I would hope and expect they would hesitate on going hog wild on him. My guess is that he did fine. We will see.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I do not think that the Sox offer Drew or Naploi qualifying offers, and that they both become free agents.

    Both will almost certainly turn down a QO of about $14M/1, so why would we not make the offers, if only to at least get the draft picks by making the offers?

    Sox4ever

     



    You think Drew turns down a 50% raise for one year?  He is looking atsybe $30mill over 3.  Why not get hslf in one?

     

     

    I don't see why Napoli is a guaratee to reject either.

     

    Sftet the troubles Bourn, Lohse, LaRoche and Soriano had getting deals after rejecting a QO, players won't be rejecting them so much.  I think MLB players have come to hate the QO as much a s NFL players used to hate the Franchise Tag. ..

    [/QUOTE]

    I think Drew will get more than $30M/3 even with the lost draft pick attached, but I get your point.

    I do think Naps will get close to $30M/2.

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    napoli at 2/26 i think he would do that...he made his 13mil this season...it would be the same as his 3/39 he signed this winter.

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    In response to raider3524's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    napoli at 2/26 i think he would do that...he made his 13mil this season...it would be the same as his 3/39 he signed this winter.

     



    players don't think like that.... he will look for 3 years.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    napoli said he likes it here...likes the guy's he plays with...it would be the same contract as victorino...it's a good deal for napoli..i think he would take it.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Drew and Napoli and 60 million guaranteed will bring sad faces for whoever is foolish enough to guarantee it.



    Most big signings end eventually up with sad faces.

    Yes, Napoli has a bum hip, but he's a 1Bman/DH now not a catcher. You think the Sox are sad paying him $13M? I'm pretty sure he will get over $28M/2.

    This was a "prove yourself" year for Drew. He took the one year deal to show his foot is better. It is. He showed he is a better fielder than most of us thought he was. There is a shortage of good SSs in today's MLB. I'm pretty sure he will get at least $30M/3, but he may take a $14M/1 QO instead. Not sure we make the offer, but these one year deals seem to be the way to go, especially when we have all these leftside IF kids coming up fast.

     

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