How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

     

     If you ask the people at Fangraphs, they usually go back 3 years with more emphasis on the most recent.

     

     

     



    If you use both WAR stats, use his last 3 seasons, prorate him out for the rest of the season by adding 0.2, and use a 3-2-1 weighted system, it works out to 2.125 WAR, which is worth 10.6 million dollars. I am cool with that offer for a season or even two. Big difference between 10.6 and 14.

     



    It looks reasonable.  However, did you prorate the PAs?  He wasn't really quite a starter in 2011.

    Past that, the difference between the $14M and the $10.6M is the duration of the contract.  My position has been that a one-year $14M contract is similar to a $33M/3 contract.  So if someone said that Salty would either take $14M for one, or $33M/3, I wouldn't care either way.

    If we thought that Vazquez should take over in 2015, we might be better off offering him $14M for one.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    Regarding the 2014 roster and beyond. If you look at the success of this years team. The players makeup is almost as important as the backs of their baseball cards. 

    Starting pitching; we're dealing from a position of strength with 6 quality starters returning for the 2014 season and at least two or three down on the farm poised to make an impact at the big league level In 2014 or 2015. In 2014 Lester and Peavy will both be on the last years of their deals and will be FA entering 2015 season. Lackey and Dempster are signed through 2015 and will be FA entering the 2016 season. 

    Down on the farm: Workman, Ranaundo, Webster, Owens & Barnes are all poised to make the jump in the next two years. Workman showed this year that he's very capable of being a part of a big league rotation. 

    Short term: how agressive will they be in trying to resign Lester to join Buccholz & Doubront as part of the 3 to 5 year nucleus? Given the depth of our rotation under contract with Workman also showing promise in his spot starts this year. The Sox are positioned to trade pitching to address position player needs for 2014 and beyond. 

    Bullpen: Always a work in progress, next year and beyond will be no different. 

    Closer: Uehara is now a lock to be the closer in 2014. The question is do they try to sign him to a longer term deal this offseason. 

    Setup: Tazawa, Morales, Breslow, Bailey & Miller are all under the teams control, so too is Thornton but he's likely to be released with the return of Miller...Britton showed flashes of promise  and will be in the mix. Beato will serve much the same role and ride the Pawtucket express...

    Short term: Righthanded setup to help lighten the load on Tazawa...could be Bailey, but given his fragility...they may give a couple of the big armed kids on the farm a long look or acquire someone through free agency or trades. 

    Position Players: 

    Free agents: Ellsbury, Napoli, Saltalamaccia, Drew and Macdonald. In term of impact all but MacDonald will be tendered qualifying offers. Salty is perhaps the one that falls into the toughest to replace. 

    Outfield: Victorino, Gomes, Nava and Carp are all under the teams control. Victorino gives us some position flexibility in the he can play both CF and RF...the other three fall into the platoon roles similar to how they were used this past season.

    Down on the farm: Bradley Jr and Brentz seem to be the two closest to making the jump. Bradley is the guy but based on his play since being promoted, looks to be slightly overmatched and not sure the Sox are ready to hand him a starting job entering 2014

    Short term: It's a fairly simple to do resign Ellsbury or make a play for another FA or use our surplus of arms to acquire a quality bat. 

    Best fits on the market: Ellsbury, Granderson, Davis, Choo or Pence

    Infiield: Pedrioa is currently the only guy that we can safely assume will man his current position heading into 2014. Middlebrooks is a lock to man one of the corners...Bogearts is a lock to make the club too And play on the left side of the infield. Ross and Lavarnway are both signed but neither is IMHO the answer for the starting catcher role. 

    Down on the farm: not sure we have many if any prospects not named Boegarts ready to impact next years team. Marrero & Holt could be in the mix for a utility role.

    Short term: I think the biggest question aside from starting catcher (can and will resign Salty) is are they better with or without Drew playing SS. Lots of moving pieces and much of it hinges on where they see Middlebrooks and Boegarts playing. 

    Best fits on the market: C Salty, McCann, Pierzinski, 1B Napoli, Morneau, Morales & Loney, 3B Uribe, Polanco, Young. 

    Conclusions: if we keep it simple and all players are amenable to signing. Bringing back Drew, Salty & Ellsbury with Boegarts at 3rd and Middlebrooks at 1st would set up this club to contend for the foreseeable future...

     
  3. This post has been removed.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Huge value and production mistake to bring back Drew and Ellsbury. 

    Salty should be the #1 target of those 3, on a one or 2 year deal that is reasonable compared to the current costs of the average MLB catcher playing 100 games or more over the last 2 or 3 seasons.



    Agreed, but do you offer Drew and Ellsbury a QO?

     
  5. This post has been removed.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc1944. Show MadMc1944's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    Re. the catching situation I don't think they make Salty a QO.  BenC had and has 5 catchers on the 40 man roster. Salty, Ross, Lava, Vazquez and Butler. Perhaps as many of two must be removed or traded or pass through waivers in order for BenC to protect other players for Rule 5. 

    Salty should go into the marketplace and the Sox can make him an offer if they wish--part of the problem is the four remaining are all RH bats. It would be nice to have a lefty or switch hitter.

    Drew, Nap and Ells I would make QO----even if they all accept you know for sure Ells will decline. Worst case scenario Drew will take the QO and he will be here for a year. It would not surprise me  if all three and Salty showed up in NY; Nap with the Mets and Ells, Salty and Drew with the Yankees.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    Hugh did you ever see Ellsbury play Double AA? He was ridiculous there. Too good. Something like a .370 batting avg. in 90 games.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

     

    Huge value and production mistake to bring back Drew and Ellsbury. 

    Salty should be the #1 target of those 3, on a one or 2 year deal that is reasonable compared to the current costs of the average MLB catcher playing 100 games or more over the last 2 or 3 seasons.

     



    Agreed, but do you offer Drew and Ellsbury a QO?

     



    Not sure i agree that it would be a mistake to offer both not only a qualifier but an actual market value contract. Drew's a very good ball player and among the better defensive SS. Who since returning from the Dl due to a concussion and overcoming a very serious ankle injury, has been among the most productive SS in the game. Offering him a QO is a no brainer even if he accepts it buys them another year to fully evaualte where they see Bogearts playing. further more it also buys them position flexibility with Middlebrooks If they want to move him across the diamond.

    I do agree that Salty is the key guy and should be retained and Ellsbury is the one that I see as the most replaceable of all with Victorino already on the roster. That said, he's a dynamic lead off hitter and we're a better team with he and Victorino. Ditto Napoli.

    in all four cases there's no down side to offering each of them a contract for 2014 if they accept then the Sox buy another year to see what they truly have in Bogearts who is still only 20 years old and if they see him moving to 3rd...then Middlebrooks Is likley to move to 1B making Napoli expendable....If they all decline, they get a supplemental pick and will then have plenty of capital to be players in the market with the starting catchers position the #1 priority..in my mind it's a no brainer. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    Hugh did you ever see Ellsbury play Double AA? He was ridiculous there. Too good. Something like a .370 batting avg. in 90 games.



    One game, don't remember what he did. 

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Ellsbury is a no brainer becuaes it's certain his market value is plenty high enough to turn it down. On Drew, depends on whether or not I have enough information to believe that it's highly likely Drew will get a stupid offer of way more than the QO. Only if I'm fairly confident that Drew's market is much higher than the QO, do I make him a QO. I'd say that's iffy, which speaks to how overrated Drew's season has been to most Red Sox fans. He's in his early 30's, so if he's been that good then surely with all the hair trigger GM's (See Crawford) Drew would get a much better offer than a QO, no?




    Drew just turned 30 in March. I would bet that there will be 3-4 year offers to him. regardless of what most think of him, hes one of the better all around SS in the game.

    he should be offered a QO, and depending on if he does good in the playoffs will solidify that.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

     

     

     

    Huge value and production mistake to bring back Drew and Ellsbury. 

    Salty should be the #1 target of those 3, on a one or 2 year deal that is reasonable compared to the current costs of the average MLB catcher playing 100 games or more over the last 2 or 3 seasons.

     

     



    Agreed, but do you offer Drew and Ellsbury a QO?

     

     

     



    Not sure i agree that it would be a mistake to offer both not only a qualifier but an actual market value contract. Drew's a very good ball player and among the better defensive SS. Who since returning from the Dl due to a concussion and overcoming a very serious ankle injury, has been among the most productive SS in the game. Offering him a QO is a no brainer even if he accepts it buys them another year to fully evaualte where they see Bogearts playing. further more it also buys them position flexibility with Middlebrooks If they want to move him across the diamond.

     

    I do agree that Salty is the key guy and should be retained and Ellsbury is the one that I see as the most replaceable of all with Victorino already on the roster. That said, he's a dynamic lead off hitter and we're a better team with he and Victorino. Ditto Napoli.

    in all four cases there's no down side to offering each of them a contract for 2014 if they accept then the Sox buy another year to see what they truly have in Bogearts who is still only 20 years old and if they see him moving to 3rd...then Middlebrooks Is likley to move to 1B making Napoli expendable....If they all decline, they get a supplemental pick and will then have plenty of capital to be players in the market with the starting catchers position the #1 priority..in my mind it's a no brainer. 



    I don't want to give Drew a contract, but I think the argument could be made to give him a QO.  I think a strong argument can be made to give all 4 an offer. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    Well regardless, just dont think JBJ is Major League ready at this point. Hoepfully he gets out of his slump before the Play-offs, because Pitching really picks up then.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    Huge value and production mistake to bring back Drew and Ellsbury. 

    Salty should be the #1 target of those 3, on a one or 2 year deal that is reasonable compared to the current costs of the average MLB catcher playing 100 games or more over the last 2 or 3 seasons.

     

     

     



    Agreed, but do you offer Drew and Ellsbury a QO?

     

     

     

     

     



    Not sure i agree that it would be a mistake to offer both not only a qualifier but an actual market value contract. Drew's a very good ball player and among the better defensive SS. Who since returning from the Dl due to a concussion and overcoming a very serious ankle injury, has been among the most productive SS in the game. Offering him a QO is a no brainer even if he accepts it buys them another year to fully evaualte where they see Bogearts playing. further more it also buys them position flexibility with Middlebrooks If they want to move him across the diamond.

     

     

    I do agree that Salty is the key guy and should be retained and Ellsbury is the one that I see as the most replaceable of all with Victorino already on the roster. That said, he's a dynamic lead off hitter and we're a better team with he and Victorino. Ditto Napoli.

    in all four cases there's no down side to offering each of them a contract for 2014 if they accept then the Sox buy another year to see what they truly have in Bogearts who is still only 20 years old and if they see him moving to 3rd...then Middlebrooks Is likley to move to 1B making Napoli expendable....If they all decline, they get a supplemental pick and will then have plenty of capital to be players in the market with the starting catchers position the #1 priority..in my mind it's a no brainer. 

     



    I don't want to give Drew a contract, but I think the argument could be made to give him a QO.  I think a strong argument can be made to give all 4 an offer. 

     



    I'd be fine with either senerio. I doubt they let him walk he's going to be looking for a multi-year deal and based on his age, play and return to health should be in line for a 3 year deal with an option for a 4th in the neighborhood of 12M per. I don't see the sox going that far unless they see Boegarts moving to 3rd full time with Middlebrooks crossing the diamond to play 1st. a senerio I would be more than ok with...

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    [/QUOTE]

    Catchers with a 2.0 WAR rarely hit FA compared to other positions.  Age is on his side as well, ruiz at 35 and coming off one of his worst years should see his stock drop, I believe you under estimate Saltys value.

     

    Remember if Salty accepts a QO a longer term deal in the 2-3 year range could be worked out at a lower AAV

    [/QUOTE]


    Ruiz has actually out played Salty this year per game. At least according to WAR. The main reason for Ruiz's drop has been injuries and games played. On paper and using Joe's method, Ruiz should make a LOT more then Salty next year, even if you drop Ruiz's numbers some because of age. And I am guessing Ruiz will cost less then 14 million next year.

     

    Negotiating with Salty after the QO, it gives him a starting point of 14 million to work off of. If you were Salty, how much would you accept for that second year if you were in his shoes? Wouldn't he think he could make something close to 14 million again the next season if he plays well? If the Sox gave him the QO this year, wouldn't he think they might the next year aswell? And only 1 extra year doesn't give him much extra security and stability. I am guessing he would take no less then 12 million for year two. And a 2 year 13 million AAV is just too high for a guy who should be worth less then 11 million.

     

    As for catchers with 2.0 WAR value hitting free agency, we have 4[also Pierzynski]  this year alone. And 4 to negotiate off of each other. With a QO to Salty, it kills that opportunity.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

     

     

     If you ask the people at Fangraphs, they usually go back 3 years with more emphasis on the most recent.

     

     

     

     



    If you use both WAR stats, use his last 3 seasons, prorate him out for the rest of the season by adding 0.2, and use a 3-2-1 weighted system, it works out to 2.125 WAR, which is worth 10.6 million dollars. I am cool with that offer for a season or even two. Big difference between 10.6 and 14.

     

     

     



    It looks reasonable.  However, did you prorate the PAs?  He wasn't really quite a starter in 2011.

     

    If we thought that Vazquez should take over in 2015, we might be better off offering him $14M for one.



    If you added 20 games or about 20% more WAR to Salty's 2011 numbers, it hardly puts a dent in the numbers since that was his worst WAR season and its also the least weighted. It makes him a 10.8 million dollar player next year instead of 10.6.

    If we did the same method to Carlos Ruiz and didn't pro rate him at all even though he has missed a lot of games this year, he would come out as a 3.04 WAR player. Subtract .5 for getting older and X 5 million and he will be worth 12.7 million next year. If you pro rate him for being injured this year he would be worth over 15 million next year. If we could get Ruiz for just 1 year at 8-12 million, that would be a steal compared to getting ripped off by a 14 million dollar Salty contract.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Ellsbury is a no brainer becuaes it's certain his market value is plenty high enough to turn it down. On Drew, depends on whether or not I have enough information to believe that it's highly likely Drew will get a stupid offer of way more than the QO. Only if I'm fairly confident that Drew's market is much higher than the QO, do I make him a QO. I'd say that's iffy, which speaks to how overrated Drew's season has been to most Red Sox fans. He's in his early 30's, so if he's been that good then surely with all the hair trigger GM's (See Crawford) Drew would get a much better offer than a QO, no?



    The problem is that the 'trigger' GMs are usually enticed by shiney beads like Pujols and Hamilton.  The sharper GMs will be more interested in effective players like Drew, but aren't as trigger-happy.

    The way I see it, the two key players would be the NYMs and StL.  Both need SS's, and the NYMs draft is protected, and StL low enough that they might not care.  Just possibly the NYY if Jeter retires.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

     

     If you ask the people at Fangraphs, they usually go back 3 years with more emphasis on the most recent.

     

     

     



    If you use both WAR stats, use his last 3 seasons, prorate him out for the rest of the season by adding 0.2, and use a 3-2-1 weighted system, it works out to 2.125 WAR, which is worth 10.6 million dollars. I am cool with that offer for a season or even two. Big difference between 10.6 and 14.

     



    I think catcher WAR is understated. I also am a firm believer in the fact that catchers greatly affect pitcher performance, and in that area, I think Salty has improved by leaps and bounds since 2010-2011.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

     

     

     

     If you ask the people at Fangraphs, they usually go back 3 years with more emphasis on the most recent.

     

     

     

     



    If you use both WAR stats, use his last 3 seasons, prorate him out for the rest of the season by adding 0.2, and use a 3-2-1 weighted system, it works out to 2.125 WAR, which is worth 10.6 million dollars. I am cool with that offer for a season or even two. Big difference between 10.6 and 14.

     

     

     



    I think catcher WAR is understated. I also am a firm believer in the fact that catchers greatly affect pitcher performance, and in that area, I think Salty has improved by leaps and bounds since 2010-2011.

     



    There are many aspects of a catchers game that cannot be quantified IMO. So that renders the WAR ratings for catchers less-useful. Like you said.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    One reason catchers have low WAR numbers is ebcause they don't play everyday and get enough PAs or UZR defensive points.

    There are only 12 catchers who "qualify" by PAs on fangraphs. Of those 12 catchers, only one is plus on defense and that is just +0.5 by Jason Castro. Seriously? Only one catcher is plus on defense? Victorino and Parra both have over 19 points for defense in RF. That is a gross disparity of positional value, when almost any manager will tell you a catcher has great value behind the plate. Fangraphs does add positional value to catchers, but I do not think it is enough. I understand how picth-calling and handling a staff might not be viewed as defense, and I understand how some fans do not value that skill as much as I do, but non offensive catcher value is certainly undervalued in WAR.

    You have to go to 250 PAs to get the MLB catcher sample size to 30- one for each team. Salty places 10th in value at $14.7M, and the season isn't over yet. Mauer is number 1 at $25.2M and Y Molina is 2nd at $24.3M. Posey is at $24M, and R Martin is at $21.3M, but there are 19 players at other positions with higher value than Mauer, including Victorino at $26.8M- based mostly on his RF defense. I'm not downplaying Shane's defense, but I think WAR overvalues some defensive positions and undervalues others.

    I also think many people overvalue the CS rate for catchers. Yes, it is important, but the difference between a guy like Salty and the league norm is only maybe 12-18 more SBs a year. While that is significant, it is not as bad as many think it might be. I won't get into the Sox philosophy of not holding runners, but believe that is part of it. I'm not saying Salty is some big plus defender, but I do think his staff-handling has become a plus when it used to be a minus. He blocks pitches much better than 2 years ago, and I have read he is one of the leagues best pitch framers, so I tend to value his work behind the plate apparently more than many here do. 

    On offense, Salty ranks 9th out of 27 catchers with 300+ PAs in OPS at .788. Only the Indians have a higher team catching OPS than .788. The league average catching OPS is .707, so we gain a hefty .081 over the average team (actually more, if you took out Salty's numbers from the league average).

    Since 2012, Salty is 11th in catcher PAs, but 6th in HRs, 6th in 2Bs, and 4th in catcher XBHs.

    I'd offer him $30-33M/3 and maybe $40M/4. 

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from NLU75. Show NLU75's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to NLU75's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    I'd offer Ellsbury $80M/5 with a club option 6th year at $12M with a $2.5M buyout. (Comes to $82.5M/5 or $92M/6). He will walk, and we get a comp pick.

    I'd offer Napoli $24M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $28M/2 with a team option 3rd year at $12M with a $2M buyout. (Comes to $26-30M/2 or $36-40M/4). He may walk, and we get a pick: he may stay, and we keep Middlebrooks at 3B (see Drew).

    I'd offer Drew $36M/3, but only if Napoli walks and we can move Middlebrooks to 1B and Bogey to 3B. If he refuses, I'd offer him a 1 year QO and get the comp pick if he walks, or trade someone if he takes it.

    I'd offer Salty $33M/3 or $40M/4. If he refuses, I'd offer him a QO and see what happens.

    Sox4ever

     

     

    Moon, Nap is coming back next year. He has a bad hip & he has admitted it . He has the same thing Bo Jackson has, his hip will die & will need a hip transplant. No one is gonna give him a long term contract, he will get one with incentives like this year. So don't offer Drew anything he might accept it. We loose Ells, & get Bradley Jr to take his place. Now we need a real Left Fielder any suggestions.


     

     



    Perhaps, but even with the bad hip, Naps has a career high PAs.

     

    The wonders of not catching anymore.

    I'd love to have him back at 1 year deals. I hope you are right.

    Moon, sir you are a gentleman & a scholar


     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    First of all, if we look at this year line up and see what happen if all FA's leaves:

    1. Ellsbury                                  1. FA

    2. Victorino                                 2. Victorino

    3. Pedroia                                  3. Pedroia

    4. Papi                                        4. Papi

    5. Napoli                                      5. FA

    6. Nava/Gomes                           6. Nava/Gomes

    7. Drew                                        7. FA

    8. Salty                                         8. FA

    9. Middlebrook                              9. Middlebrook

    I do not think Middlebrook or Bogaerts is capable to protect Papi as a #5 hitter.   Meaning, they should bring back Napoli.  I do not think Victorino is capable to lead off for every game since he already have hamstring problem which I could foresee it is a long term injury.  Also Pedroia hardly bunt the ball to move men around which mean he is not a true #2 hitter. He is more of #3 or #6 to #9  hitter.

    So I strongly think that Boston should try to keep the top five hitters as long they can which it is one of the best in MLB.  So meaning, they should try hard to resign Ellsbury and Napoli.  I know it is costly, but to make another run for the WS title.  That is what they need to do.

    Then to get Salty back, it would be nice.   But remember, he have never had a good long term contract like most of the players today because he had alot of frustration years before he finally have his best year ever in his life this year.  So therefore, he will be looking for a good long term contract which that is what he should be looking for.  I know Boston may not like it, but may not have much choice.  Still you do not want a new catcher to come to Boston who know nothing about Boston's starting pitchings.   Seriously, resign Salty.

    Drew may be the odd man out cuz there Ben C is more likely do not have money left to resign him.  Ben is more likely to trade Dempster, and free up money to resign few bullpen pitchers as well for more bench players. 

    Here is the 2014 line up:  

    1. Ellsbury

    2. Victorino

    3. Pedroia

    4. Papi

    5. Napoli

    6. Nava

    7. Bogaerts

    8. Salty

    9. Middlebrook

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    It's a risk VS. Reward thing for me.  

    If the Sox had to throw in 4 million dollars to trade Drew for a B prospect or a reliever if he accepted then thats a risk I'm willing to take when the reward is an additional draft pick and a larger bonus pool.  Under the new CBA draft picks and bonus pool money are much more valuable.

    Id rather have the Sox take chances like that with their excess Cash rather than go out and over spend on guys like Carl Crawford or Josh Hamilton.  For a team that should be picking in the 25-32 range these are the risks I'd like my team to make in the new CBA era.

    Its a calculated risk, and if the guy would fill an obvious need then there is very little downside in my eyes.   Picking 3-4 times between slots 25-45, that will gold next year.  Last time the Sox had a boat load of picks in a strong draft they made out pretty well (2011) 



    I agree. Although I was firmly against the Drew signing last winter, his fielding has turned out to be much better than I expected, and Iggy is gone now. Offering Drew a QO make sense in another way: it moves Bogey to 3B and Middlebrooks to 1B where they probably belong in the long run anyways. Of course, Napoli is a better hitter than Drew, so the savings gained by signing Drew over Napoli is not realized, if we offer Napoli the QO and not Drew. My point is, we will not offer both a QO, IMO. The savings realized by letting one walk could be used towards keeping Ellsbury or trying to find a middle order big bopper to take over RF (with Victorino and JBJ taking over CF).

    I don't consider Pence or Choo "big boppers", so a trade would probably have to be made to find that "right guy". I guess if we signed Drew, Salty, and Napoli there wouldn't be much leftover for an OF'er, so we'd have to go with Nava in RF when Shane played CF.

    Lots of tough calls this winter.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Im thinking they go with Bogaerts at SS next year and offer Drew a QO. Ive been thre biggest Drew supposrter here, but I dont think they keep him because it will take a 3-4 year deal.

    Naps might get a 2, possibly 3yr deal because the Sox dont have much as far as 1b in the system. I think they would rather go 2yrs though. If he doesnt take an immediate offer from the Sox, they will offer a QO.

    I think they offer Ells a similar deal to pedey, but 5-6 years at 14M. Another Qo will be offered.

    One name you didnt mention is salty. I think they will, and should , sign him to a 3-4 year deal. Hes worth it and has earned it IMHO. somewhere around 8-10M depending on years.



    Naps,2or3 yr deal ? Thats funny........

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    Regarding the 2014 roster and beyond. If you look at the success of this years team. The players makeup is almost as important as the backs of their baseball cards. 

    Starting pitching; we're dealing from a position of strength with 6 quality starters returning for the 2014 season and at least two or three down on the farm poised to make an impact at the big league level In 2014 or 2015. In 2014 Lester and Peavy will both be on the last years of their deals and will be FA entering 2015 season. Lackey and Dempster are signed through 2015 and will be FA entering the 2016 season. 

    Down on the farm: Workman, Ranaundo, Webster, Owens & Barnes are all poised to make the jump in the next two years. Workman showed this year that he's very capable of being a part of a big league rotation. 

    Short term: how agressive will they be in trying to resign Lester to join Buccholz & Doubront as part of the 3 to 5 year nucleus? Given the depth of our rotation under contract with Workman also showing promise in his spot starts this year. The Sox are positioned to trade pitching to address position player needs for 2014 and beyond. 

    Agreed.

    Bullpen: Always a work in progress, next year and beyond will be no different. 

    Not sure if we'll have any budget room to add anyone to the pen.

    Closer: Uehara is now a lock to be the closer in 2014. The question is do they try to sign him to a longer term deal this offseason. 

    He's too old for a "longterm" deal, but adding a year could be possible.

    Setup: Tazawa, Morales, Breslow, Bailey & Miller are all under the teams control, so too is Thornton but he's likely to be released with the return of Miller...Britton showed flashes of promise  and will be in the mix. Beato will serve much the same role and ride the Pawtucket express...

    Short term: Righthanded setup to help lighten the load on Tazawa...could be Bailey, but given his fragility...they may give a couple of the big armed kids on the farm a long look or acquire someone through free agency or trades. 

    The pen will almost certainly be all from what's in the sytem now.

    Position Players: 

    Free agents: Ellsbury, Napoli, Saltalamaccia, Drew and Macdonald. In term of impact all but MacDonald will be tendered qualifying offers. Salty is perhaps the one that falls into the toughest to replace. 

    Agreed.

    Outfield: Victorino, Gomes, Nava and Carp are all under the teams control. Victorino gives us some position flexibility in the he can play both CF and RF...the other three fall into the platoon roles similar to how they were used this past season.

    Down on the farm: Bradley Jr and Brentz seem to be the two closest to making the jump. Bradley is the guy but based on his play since being promoted, looks to be slightly overmatched and not sure the Sox are ready to hand him a starting job entering 2014.

    The problem is that only Victorino and JBJ can play plus defense in CF and RF, and Shane has injury issues. Nava/Gomes make a great LF platoon, but it's almost impossible to play Carp and Gomes in the OF at the same time.

    Short term: It's a fairly simple to do resign Ellsbury or make a play for another FA or use our surplus of arms to acquire a quality bat. 

    Agreed, but I'm not seeing Ellsbury's projected deal cost as better than the alternative.

    Best fits on the market: Ellsbury, Granderson, Davis, Choo or Pence.

    I think Ben goes after Pence. I don't think any of these 5 guys fills our 3/4 slot in the line-up very well.

    Infiield: Pedrioa is currently the only guy that we can safely assume will man his current position heading into 2014. Middlebrooks is a lock to man one of the corners...Bogearts is a lock to make the club too And play on the left side of the infield. Ross and Lavarnway are both signed but neither is IMHO the answer for the starting catcher role. 

    Agreed.

    Down on the farm: not sure we have many if any prospects not named Boegarts ready to impact next years team. Marrero & Holt could be in the mix for a utility role.

    Short term: I think the biggest question aside from starting catcher (can and will resign Salty) is are they better with or without Drew playing SS. Lots of moving pieces and much of it hinges on where they see Middlebrooks and Boegarts playing. 

    Although moving 2 players (Bogey to 3B and Middy to 1B) sounds radical just to make room for Drew, I think it is a better fielding IF than Bogey at SS, Middy at 3B, and Carp/Nava/Lava/papi at 1B.

    Best fits on the market: C Salty, McCann, Pierzinski, 1B Napoli, Morneau, Morales & Loney, 3B Uribe, Polanco, Young. 

    I think we sign Salty and then 2 of these 4 guys: Drew, Pence, Choo, K Morales, Napoli. 

    Conclusions: if we keep it simple and all players are amenable to signing. Bringing back Drew, Salty & Ellsbury with Boegarts at 3rd and Middlebrooks at 1st would set up this club to contend for the foreseeable future...

    Agreed, but I doubt Jacoby comes back, so maybe Drew, Salty & Pence.




     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     If you ask the people at Fangraphs, they usually go back 3 years with more emphasis on the most recent.

     

     

     

     

     



    If you use both WAR stats, use his last 3 seasons, prorate him out for the rest of the season by adding 0.2, and use a 3-2-1 weighted system, it works out to 2.125 WAR, which is worth 10.6 million dollars. I am cool with that offer for a season or even two. Big difference between 10.6 and 14.

     

     

     

     

     



    It looks reasonable.  However, did you prorate the PAs?  He wasn't really quite a starter in 2011.

     

     

    If we thought that Vazquez should take over in 2015, we might be better off offering him $14M for one.

     



    If you added 20 games or about 20% more WAR to Salty's 2011 numbers, it hardly puts a dent in the numbers since that was his worst WAR season and its also the least weighted. It makes him a 10.8 million dollar player next year instead of 10.6.

     

    If we did the same method to Carlos Ruiz and didn't pro rate him at all even though he has missed a lot of games this year, he would come out as a 3.04 WAR player. Subtract .5 for getting older and X 5 million and he will be worth 12.7 million next year. If you pro rate him for being injured this year he would be worth over 15 million next year. If we could get Ruiz for just 1 year at 8-12 million, that would be a steal compared to getting ripped off by a 14 million dollar Salty contract.



    The more I think about it, the more i want to retract my statement.  Perhaps saying Salty gets a Q.O. is not a slam dunk.  But lets remember a few things as well, if we want to make the argument that his numbers will come down by citing his BABIP then we should also acknowledge that we could also assume a rise in his power next year as well.  There are a lot of intangibles to the catching position that do NOT show up on the stat sheet.  One of those is durability, one reason why WAR is often so low for Catchers from year to year is because there are not a lot of catchers out there that can handle the wear and tear of playing a full season.  Salty has shown that he not only can stay healthy while handling a pitching staff....but he can eat up a LOT of games.

    I still stand by my prediction that he gets a Q.O.  But I think this will be more in an attempt to retain him.  Lava is likely not the catcher of the future, and Vasquez may be a really good back up but still needs another year of seasoning, and while Swihart may be a future first division starter, he is still several years away.  I believe the Sox offer the Q.O. and plan on negotiating a better deal.  If they are wrong, and he accepts a Q.O. and does not take a 2-3 year deal with a lower AAV then the worst thing that happens is they maintain a known commodity behind the dish for one more year.

    I'm more comfortable (and it is my guess that Ben Charrington is too) with taking those kind of risks than going out and making the big Carl Crawford and Josh Hamilton signings.  

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share