How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:
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     If you ask the people at Fangraphs, they usually go back 3 years with more emphasis on the most recent.

     

     

     

     

     

     



    If you use both WAR stats, use his last 3 seasons, prorate him out for the rest of the season by adding 0.2, and use a 3-2-1 weighted system, it works out to 2.125 WAR, which is worth 10.6 million dollars. I am cool with that offer for a season or even two. Big difference between 10.6 and 14.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    It looks reasonable.  However, did you prorate the PAs?  He wasn't really quite a starter in 2011.

     

     

     

    If we thought that Vazquez should take over in 2015, we might be better off offering him $14M for one.

     

     

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    If you added 20 games or about 20% more WAR to Salty's 2011 numbers, it hardly puts a dent in the numbers since that was his worst WAR season and its also the least weighted. It makes him a 10.8 million dollar player next year instead of 10.6.

     

     

    If we did the same method to Carlos Ruiz and didn't pro rate him at all even though he has missed a lot of games this year, he would come out as a 3.04 WAR player. Subtract .5 for getting older and X 5 million and he will be worth 12.7 million next year. If you pro rate him for being injured this year he would be worth over 15 million next year. If we could get Ruiz for just 1 year at 8-12 million, that would be a steal compared to getting ripped off by a 14 million dollar Salty contract.

     

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    The more I think about it, the more i want to retract my statement.  Perhaps saying Salty gets a Q.O. is not a slam dunk.  But lets remember a few things as well, if we want to make the argument that his numbers will come down by citing his BABIP then we should also acknowledge that we could also assume a rise in his power next year as well.  There are a lot of intangibles to the catching position that do NOT show up on the stat sheet.  One of those is durability, one reason why WAR is often so low for Catchers from year to year is because there are not a lot of catchers out there that can handle the wear and tear of playing a full season.  Salty has shown that he not only can stay healthy while handling a pitching staff....but he can eat up a LOT of games.

     

    I still stand by my prediction that he gets a Q.O.  But I think this will be more in an attempt to retain him.  Lava is likely not the catcher of the future, and Vasquez may be a really good back up but still needs another year of seasoning, and while Swihart may be a future first division starter, he is still several years away.  I believe the Sox offer the Q.O. and plan on negotiating a better deal.  If they are wrong, and he accepts a Q.O. and does not take a 2-3 year deal with a lower AAV then the worst thing that happens is they maintain a known commodity behind the dish for one more year.

    I'm more comfortable (and it is my guess that Ben Charrington is too) with taking those kind of risks than going out and making the big Carl Crawford and Josh Hamilton signings.  

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    You said about 10 different things and I agree with all of them but two. First, you might be underselling Vasquez by seeming to limit him to a backup role.

     

    On the bigger disagreement, I just think there are better moves then locking ourselves into Salty, which I believe giving a QO does. I prefer others[McCann-Ruiz] at slightly more or equal AAV money. But even if you prefer Salty, it kills our negotiating position. If we don't offer the QO, we can still offer less then 14 for 1 year and work off of 4 seperate catchers in negotiations.  And history is on our side with current salaries for catchers. Plus we have a great situation to come to. The Red Sox would be in a position of strength. The teams in the market for catching is weak. Texas has extremely little interest in Salty. Atlanta has no need for a catcher. Where would Salty go? I just believe the QO pins us down into a less then equal value position by gauranteeing 14 million. I don't see teams knocking each other over to get a catcher with 6 career WAR and paying 12-14+ million a year.

    One of the key reasons people give for keeping Salty is that he is finally in sink with his pitchers, so we should keep him. However, other teams don't have this as a reason to sign him. Instead they would say man, it took a long time for his pitchers to get comfortable with him, why should we go sign him then, it could take years?

    And with little market, I see no reason to over pay right out of the gate with a QO. And the tiny possibility of a bidding war doesn't mean the end of the world either if you had to pay a tiny bit more to keep him if that was the plan. He would very likely get at least 1-14, 2-12, 3-11, 4-10 with a QO. If we ended up having to pay 4-11 instead of 4-10 to keep him because we didn't offer the QO, would that be the end of the world? IMO, its worth the gamble on a lot of fronts to pass on the QO. He is going nowhere if the Red Sox want him.

     

    All of that is if they prefer him to the others. Let me say again, although I would not give the QO at this time, its somewhat close. A strong finish and playoffs by Salty could get me to change my mind.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    Vasquez is likely a starter if you look at his defense alone, while he still has some things to work on (blocking balls) he has all the makings of an elite defensive catcher.  He's been considered a defense first catcher with average bat speed.  NOW with that said, I think his offensive play this year has surprised some people, while not great he was an above average offensive player in double.  An above average offensive player in double a doesn't scream starter, and I admit I try to be on the conservative side when projecting young prospects.  

    When I say vasquez is likely a back up catcher that is because his defense is good enough right now to where if nothing else really develops he could likely be just that.  There is a very good chance he can continue to show progression at the plate to be an adequate backstop.  THe offensive bar is set pretty low for Catchers.  I'm actually pretty optimistic on him, I just think he may need 3 more years to be MLB level.  That is why I base my argument on the fact that we could retain Salty for 3 years (this is assuming we could work out a 3 year deal) and I would also assume that during year 2 and/or 3 Vasquez may very well find himself honing in on his skills at the MLB level under Salty.  

    In my eyes, the biggest danger in all this is Salty does not want to work out a 3 year deal and decides to take the 14 million and play for one more year and hit free agency next year.  But I'm sure you are aware of the nature of free agent catchers payday.  After guys like Mauer and Molina theres decent drop off in pay.  I admit I could be wrong here.....I just don't think it's that high of a risk.  Worst case scenario we have Salty for one year...and yes It's an overpay but I don't mind overpaying guys for one year I do mind overpaying guys for 6-7 years.   

    It's a risk, and it's a risk i think the Red Sox will take.  I'm not as confident in this prediction as many of my others but I'm going to go out on the limb and back my prediction on this one as well.  

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Vasquez is likely a starter if you look at his defense alone, while he still has some things to work on (blocking balls) he has all the makings of an elite defensive catcher.  He's been considered a defense first catcher with average bat speed.  NOW with that said, I think his offensive play this year has surprised some people, while not great he was an above average offensive player in double.  An above average offensive player in double a doesn't scream starter, and I admit I try to be on the conservative side when projecting young prospects.  

    When I say vasquez is likely a back up catcher that is because his defense is good enough right now to where if nothing else really develops he could likely be just that.  There is a very good chance he can continue to show progression at the plate to be an adequate backstop.  THe offensive bar is set pretty low for Catchers.  I'm actually pretty optimistic on him, I just think he may need 3 more years to be MLB level.  That is why I base my argument on the fact that we could retain Salty for 3 years (this is assuming we could work out a 3 year deal) and I would also assume that during year 2 and/or 3 Vasquez may very well find himself honing in on his skills at the MLB level under Salty.  

    In my eyes, the biggest danger in all this is Salty does not want to work out a 3 year deal and decides to take the 14 million and play for one more year and hit free agency next year.  But I'm sure you are aware of the nature of free agent catchers payday.  After guys like Mauer and Molina theres decent drop off in pay.  I admit I could be wrong here.....I just don't think it's that high of a risk.  Worst case scenario we have Salty for one year...and yes It's an overpay but I don't mind overpaying guys for one year I do mind overpaying guys for 6-7 years.   

    It's a risk, and it's a risk i think the Red Sox will take.  I'm not as confident in this prediction as many of my others but I'm going to go out on the limb and back my prediction on this one as well.  



    I think the difference we have is in the idea of "risk". There is actually little "risk" in giving the QO. The result will be very predictable. He will get extremely close to the numbers I predicted above[1-14, 2-12, 3-11, 4-10]. The only question IMO is which length of contract he would prefer and whether the Red Sox go as long as 3-4-5 years. The other question is if its these numbers or something slightly higher for the longer term deals. I wouldn't call that risky. I would just call it a mistake. But its kind of a certain proposition.

     

    My way has much more uncertainty, but I personally see little risk here either. Thats partly because I prefer Ruiz and McCann anyway. But its also because I see the negotiation position to be on the side of the Red Sox. I can see the Red Sox getting Salty for 2-20 if they play this right. And if you prefer to keep Salty, but think Swihart-Vasquez will be ready in 2 years, isn't that a perfect out come and better then 4-42 or 2-25 or 1-14? Personally, I think Vasquez will be ready in one season and Swihart in two. Finally, I see little risk in losing Salty if they felt they have to keep him because the organisation would be doomed if we lost the one and only Salty.Wink Its the perfect situation for him. If they match the top offer he would stay. So where is the risk?

     

    I see little to no risk either way. Just one option with a certain slight over pay and one where you might not have to over pay.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    Ruiz is way "riskier" than Salty.

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew


    There's a lot I don't like about Saltalamacchia, but after this season he sure looks to me like the one free agent the Sox should try to keep.  He has improved every aspect of his work behind the plate, including, I'm guessing here, his CERA.  That is, this year the Sox staff has been terrific overall, especially given half the home games at Fenway, and the primary catcher has to get a lot of credit for that.  Last night Lackey pitched and absolute gem--9 innings and 1 run against a team that just took 2 in Fenway--and afterward acted as though Salty had a lot to do with it. 

    That said, I don't mind moonslav's idea of a two year offer if it will work.  If it won't the Sox ought to think seriously about 3 or 4 years because we now know it's a big leap from AA and AAA to MLB.  Those guys who look so great in the minors don't necessarily pan out.  Let's not forget that about 18 months ago Lavarnway was the catcher du jour, the next Carlton Fisk, etc.  And let's also remember that by and large the Sox like their catchers to be able to hit--that is, their regular catchers.  Guys like Ross, Mirabelli, and a bunch of others don't have to hit, just catch.  As good as Vasquez looks on defense, he does need to be able to hit to replace Saltalamacchia. 

    I think the second hardest guy to replace right now is Ellsbury, but am resigned to losing him because of the likely very high cost.  The good news is the Sox can likely get a good outfield bat for not too much money, and Bradley could blossom in 2014.    The bad news is that Ellsbury's WAR is among the top ten in the AL for a reason--good glove, great wheels, good bat, and comfortable in the Fenway venue. 

    As I said elsewhere, I think the Sox need to keep Napoli or Drew, but not both. 

    And, as I also said, I think it would be madness to clean house after one of the best Sox regular seasons in a long time.  These guys have 93 wins with 8 games to go. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    Ells is top priority but you limit him to 6/100


    Salty is the next top priority and I think you give you him 2/26

    Then Napoli and I limit that offer to 2/26

    Drew isn't in the plans next year for his salary but whether or not I risk offering him a QO?  I think that depends on what happens with items 1, 2 and 3 above.  And how much I need to try and get a draft pick....and what the market projects for Drew etc........Right now though, I'd just let him walk.

    But without question Ellsbury is your top priority

    Lead Off Hitter

    CF'er

    Plays both sides of the field

    Is home grown

    Is battle tested in Boston

    Has playoff and WS experience

    Don't want to see him in NY like Damon

    We can afford it now

    My first offer is 5/70 - (to benchmark Drew)

    Then I throw in an option based on games played to make it 6/84

    Then I guarantee the 6/84

    Then I do 6/100 and say take it or leave it and it goes away in 24 hours

    But hey, if he wants 7/142 and someone is willing to pay it then so be it.  We had him for good # of years.

    Ben could take that money and go on a spending spree going after lots of mid-level talent

    Like Morneau, Pence, Arroyo, and maybe a high risk/high reward guy in Lincecum, and throwing in sign-on bonuses for Salty and Nap to make sure those deals get done

    BTW, it appears that Ben is going to have to make some trades to bolster the pen and as we know, he is terrible at that..........

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    And, as I also said, I think it would be madness to clean house after one of the best Sox regular seasons in a long time.  These guys have 93 wins with 8 games to go. 



    I like the way you put that.

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:


    There's a lot I don't like about Saltalamacchia, but after this season he sure looks to me like the one free agent the Sox should try to keep.  He has improved every aspect of his work behind the plate, including, I'm guessing here, his CERA.  That is, this year the Sox staff has been terrific overall, especially given half the home games at Fenway, and the primary catcher has to get a lot of credit for that.  Last night Lackey pitched and absolute gem--9 innings and 1 run against a team that just took 2 in Fenway--and afterward acted as though Salty had a lot to do with it. 

    That said, I don't mind moonslav's idea of a two year offer if it will work.  If it won't the Sox ought to think seriously about 3 or 4 years because we now know it's a big leap from AA and AAA to MLB.  Those guys who look so great in the minors don't necessarily pan out.  Let's not forget that about 18 months ago Lavarnway was the catcher du jour, the next Carlton Fisk, etc.  And let's also remember that by and large the Sox like their catchers to be able to hit--that is, their regular catchers.  Guys like Ross, Mirabelli, and a bunch of others don't have to hit, just catch.  As good as Vasquez looks on defense, he does need to be able to hit to replace Saltalamacchia. 

    I think the second hardest guy to replace right now is Ellsbury, but am resigned to losing him because of the likely very high cost.  The good news is the Sox can likely get a good outfield bat for not too much money, and Bradley could blossom in 2014.    The bad news is that Ellsbury's WAR is among the top ten in the AL for a reason--good glove, great wheels, good bat, and comfortable in the Fenway venue. 

    As I said elsewhere, I think the Sox need to keep Napoli or Drew, but not both. 

    And, as I also said, I think it would be madness to clean house after one of the best Sox regular seasons in a long time.  These guys have 93 wins with 8 games to go. 



    I think Salty would love to come back to play for Boston.  This is his third teams that he have been playing in his career, and he failed to succeed with his previous first two teams. Now he is on the rise and feeling so much comfortable playing for the Boston organization. He know that if he depart and goes to another team, and he know that he could possible struggle all over again.  That is probably what he is thinking right now.  Maybe if his team win it all this year, and then maybe he may not care what will happen in the next five years like all he care about the $$$$$ like A-rod of the Yankees.  But I know he is not that kind of a person.  He may just take one to two millions dollars less a year to go back to Boston.  IF Boston offer him 27 millions dollars for three years, he ll take it regardless how much McCann will sign his newest contract!!  The city of Boston is his real home just like Lackey, Napoli, Papi, Pedroia.  Dont know about Ellsbury and Drew!!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    I think Salty would love to come back to play for Boston.

    .733 OPS career.

    .774 OPS at Fenway.

    Makes sense to both parties to bring him back.

    Sox4ever

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: How aggressive does Ben go to keep Ells, Nap, And Drew

    He's still young too and coming off his best season

    2/26 is fair (and maybe a 3 mil sign on bonus just in case - remember, the yankees may be in the mix here)........

     
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