How good will Tanaka be?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    How good will Tanaka be?

    Is a devastating splitter and slider effective in the majors if the complimenting fastball is 90-91 and flat?  Is his fastball really as flat as his critics say?  A great mystery.  Darvish or Daisuke (or, hopefully Irabu)?  Haha.  He certainly seems to have good make-up.

     

    Pike:  No, I am not a Yankee fan and I know this is a Red Sox board so we shouldnt say anything that doesnt have to do with the Red Sox and why would i talk about the Yankees on a Sox board, etc. etc. etc.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    Is a devastating splitter and slider effective in the majors if the complimenting fastball is 90-91 and flat?  Is his fastball really as flat as his critics say?  A great mystery.  Darvish or Daisuke (or, hopefully Irabu)?  Haha.  He certainly seems to have good make-up.

     

    Pike:  No, I am not a Yankee fan and I know this is a Red Sox board so we shouldnt say anything that doesnt have to do with the Red Sox and why would i talk about the Yankees on a Sox board, etc. etc. etc.



    If his splitter plays well of his fastball he will be fine as long as his offspeed pitches are good enough to compliment his fastball.  I don't think he is going to be Kershaw or king Felix good....but he will be a good pitcher.  I HOPE he's horrible, but have some solace in knowing that if he is actually worth every penny NY paid he will be opting out and presumably getting paid even more money by NY. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    He should be really really good, especially the first time through a line-up or a game or two.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    He should be really really good, especially the first time through a line-up or a game or two.



    I'm also wondering how good he can really be a second or third time through an American MLB lineup with a flat 91 MPH fastball. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    He should be really really good, especially the first time through a line-up or a game or two.



    I'm also wondering how good he can really be a second or third time through an American MLB lineup with a flat 91 MPH fastball. 



    He may not need a good fastball, but point well taken.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    My guess is Tanaka will finish 13-8 with a 4.25 ERA.  Not bad for a #4 starter but not worth $150 million.  But then again, its not my money.   LOL

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    He should be really really good, especially the first time through a line-up or a game or two.



    I'm also wondering how good he can really be a second or third time through an American MLB lineup with a flat 91 MPH fastball. 



    He may not need a good fastball, but point well taken.



    He doesn't need a good fastball per se.  But, in order for the split to work off of it effectively, it has to at least suggest movement.  If these big league hitters can identify and see the fastball easily, its going to be problematic.  I agree that he will likely be mowing down guys until the book on Tanaka gets figured.  But, if guys are picking up the fastball easily, then, even if he isn't getting knocked around, he is going to have to start nibbling, which is not the name of his game.  if his fastball is better than scouting reports say (maybe it has more bite with American baseballs?), he should be high calibre.  It will be interesting.  

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    He should be really really good, especially the first time through a line-up or a game or two.



    I'm also wondering how good he can really be a second or third time through an American MLB lineup with a flat 91 MPH fastball. 



    He may not need a good fastball, but point well taken.



    He doesn't need a good fastball per se.  But, in order for the split to work off of it effectively, it has to at least suggest movement.  If these big league hitters can identify and see the fastball easily, its going to be problematic.  I agree that he will likely be mowing down guys until the book on Tanaka gets figured.  But, if guys are picking up the fastball easily, then, even if he isn't getting knocked around, he is going to have to start nibbling, which is not the name of his game.  if his fastball is better than scouting reports say (maybe it has more bite with American baseballs?), he should be high calibre.  It will be interesting.  



    Tanaka also has a reputation of going easy on the #6-9 hitters.  His velocity will drop to 88-89 sometimes and he ramps it back up VS. the top and heart of the order.  He won't be able to do that in the big leagues...the back of the lineup in America is going to be much stronger. 

    I still think he will be good, but I think his upside makes him on par with what NY paid him, which with their payroll was bound to get thrown at a starting pitcher anyways....I'd rather have them spend it on a guy with question marks than a known commodity. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    Koji should help out our hitters on how to hit nasty splitter.  

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    not worth 150 million.........lower 90 fastball in MLB is going to eventually get shelled.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    I have a feeling he's going to be very good.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    How fast was Maddux fast ball?  Did Mariano even have a fastball?  Nice to have a swing and miss fb, but doesn't mean you can't be a great pitcher if you haven't.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from bostonfan191646. Show bostonfan191646's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to crowtrobot's comment:

    Hopefully, he gets hit like a Japanese pinata.



    My gut feeling is that he puts up a solid year this year. 15-7 with a 3.6 or something. I also think those will be career high numbers and in three years he'll be a cautionary tale

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to Iceman4's comment:

    not worth 150 million.........lower 90 fastball in MLB is going to eventually get shelled.



    How fast was Greg Maddux's fastball? Cliff Lee? Roy Halladay? They were not overpowering either, but they sure got the job done. You do not need a good 95 mph fastball to be succesful, but you do have to locate it well. If Tanaka can do that he will be tough.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    How fast was Maddux fast ball?  Did Mariano even have a fastball?  Nice to have a swing and miss fb, but doesn't mean you can't be a great pitcher if you haven't.



    Maddux is an exception and not the rule, however you are correct.  The reason why he is the exception is because his control was really really good and his secondary pitches were really really good, even then later in his career when his fastball dipped to the mid 80's he wasn't nearly as effective.

    As for Mariano, he's a closer....his splitter was nasty but that's all he had.  If he was a starter and had to run through a lineup a few times he would likely be hammered hard often.  That is the nature with many closers, they don't have the arsenal to start but they have one nasty pitch that they can dominate with one time through an order. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    How fast was Maddux fast ball?  Did Mariano even have a fastball?  Nice to have a swing and miss fb, but doesn't mean you can't be a great pitcher if you haven't.



    No it certainly doesn't.  But Maddux was a different beast.  Maddux controlled the black like perhaps no other pitcher in the history of the game.  Mariano had the most devastating split (some say Tanaka's is that level), but, here again, what made it so devastating was his uncanny control of a hard-to-control pitch, and the fact that he only needed to throw it for an inning.

    So, without a swing-and-miss cheese, Tanaka has to have the finest control.  And, control has a way of getting shaky when a guy can't get the fastball by guys.  We shall see.  Maddux was able to do this.  in fact, Maddux was able to throw 87 as a swing and miss because his control of all of his pitches was so otherworldy.  But, Matsuzaka was a control master when he was in Japan, and look what happened.  Just sayin'.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    How fast was Maddux fast ball?  Did Mariano even have a fastball?  Nice to have a swing and miss fb, but doesn't mean you can't be a great pitcher if you haven't.



    No it certainly doesn't.  But Maddux was a different beast.  Maddux controlled the black like perhaps no other pitcher in the history of the game.  Mariano had the most devastating split (some say Tanaka's is that level), but, here again, what made it so devastating was his uncanny control of a hard-to-control pitch.

    So, without a swing-and-miss cheese, Tanaka has to have the finest control.  And, control has a way of getting shaky when a guy can't get the fastball by guys.  We shall see.  Maddux was able to do this.  in fact, Maddux was able to throw 87 as a swing and miss because his control of all of his pitches was so otherworldy.  But, Matsuzaka was a control master when he was in Japan, and look what happened.  Just sayin'.



    I'm not saying Tanaka doesn't have control, because he obviously does.  But you can get a lot more swings and misses at stuff out of the zone in Japan than you can in America....Tanaka will probably easily see his BB/9 and ERA double in America.

    Which would still make him a REALLy good pitcher as he put up video game numbers in Japan. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    How fast was Maddux fast ball?  Did Mariano even have a fastball?  Nice to have a swing and miss fb, but doesn't mean you can't be a great pitcher if you haven't.



    No it certainly doesn't.  But Maddux was a different beast.  Maddux controlled the black like perhaps no other pitcher in the history of the game.  Mariano had the most devastating split (some say Tanaka's is that level), but, here again, what made it so devastating was his uncanny control of a hard-to-control pitch.

    So, without a swing-and-miss cheese, Tanaka has to have the finest control.  And, control has a way of getting shaky when a guy can't get the fastball by guys.  We shall see.  Maddux was able to do this.  in fact, Maddux was able to throw 87 as a swing and miss because his control of all of his pitches was so otherworldy.  But, Matsuzaka was a control master when he was in Japan, and look what happened.  Just sayin'.



    I'm not saying Tanaka doesn't have control, because he obviously does.  But you can get a lot more swings and misses at stuff out of the zone in Japan than you can in America....Tanaka will probably easily see his BB/9 and ERA double in America.

    Which would still make him a REALLy good pitcher as he put up video game numbers in Japan. 



    Agreed.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    I felt that we were remiss in not going all out for him. Maybe the Yankees had him in their bag all the while. Who knows? We can only hope he bombs.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    I felt that we were remiss in not going all out for him. Maybe the Yankees had him in their bag all the while. Who knows? We can only hope he bombs.



    Yeah, here's hoping.  Haha.  I can understand why the Sox organization might be a little gunshy about backing up the brinx truck to a japanese pitching star though.  I was adamant about a run at Darvish, but that is because Darvish had a ++ fastball with movement to go with his fancy stuff and gaudy japanese stats.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    I felt that we were remiss in not going all out for him. Maybe the Yankees had him in their bag all the while. Who knows? We can only hope he bombs.




    Well I, for one, am glad we didn't spend $175 million on a guy who hadn't thrown a pitch in MLB.

    That's money that could be used for a run at Max Scherzer or James Shields next winter, if you're into that whole throw-cash-at-the-biggest-free-agent-you-can-find kind of thing -- or to lock up some trade deadline acquiree. I don't know how good Tanaka will be (that's the point, really...no one does), but that's a lot of money for so many question marks.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    i saw him pithc in japan.  those hitters are not nearly the caliber.  there also wasn't 150 media hounds at every game.  wait until he experiences strip clubs around the country.  they dont have them like that in japan.

    he will be under .500.  put it in stone.

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: How good will Tanaka be?

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    Is a devastating splitter and slider effective in the majors if the complimenting fastball is 90-91 and flat?  Is his fastball really as flat as his critics say?  A great mystery.



    It is not. His first outing of the Spring he was 91-94. Movement was fine. Location was good. He has 16/3 K/BB rate this spring. Looked like Kuroda with another MPH or two. If you are hoping for a bust, hope he busts some ligaments. Otherwise you will be disapointed.

     
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