How much money is left?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    How much money is left?

      If the Red Sox intend to spend less than the luxury tax, how much money is left.  My impression is between a couple of million and maybe a little bit of salary to unload.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    You asked...

     

    2012 Salary Numbers (based on average annual salary + bonuses of player/years)

      (ARBs to go in Red)

    Papi           $_____ ($12.65M or $16M or compromise)

    Salty          $2.5M

    Shopp        $1.35M 

    AGon         $22M

    Pedroia      $6.7M

    Aviles        $1.2M

    Youkilis     $10.3M

    Crawford   $20.3M

    Ellsbury     $8.05M

    Ross          $3M

    Sweeney   $1.75M 

    Iglesias     $2.1M

     
     

    Punto     $ 1.5M 

     

    D.Mac      $____  ($470K/ 1st Arb out of 3 years) 

    Kalish      $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Lavarn.    $_____  ($   )

    Anderson $____  ($415K/ no arb)

    Exposito   $____  ($414K/no arb)

    Tejada      $____  ($414K/no arb)

    __________________________________ 

    Beckett   $17M

    Lester       $6M

    Buch         $8.5M

    Lackey    $16.5M

    Dice-K       $8.7M

    Miller        $1.04M (Nonguaranteed)

    Doubront $____  ($417K/no arb)

    Tazawa    $_____  ($1.1M in '11 / pre-arb '12, then 4 (?) arb yrs)

    Pimental  $_____  ($414K/no arb) 

    Mortensen $_____ ($ ??)

    Bard          $1.625M

    Aceves      $____  ($900K or $1.6M or compromise)

    Jenks         $6M

    Bailey       $____ ($3.35M or $4.7M or compromise)

    Melancon $_____($421M in '11/ pre-arb '12, then pre-arb or 1 of 3/4 arbs)

    Albers       $1.075M

    Atchison   $_____ ($454K, then prearb and 3 arb years)

    Bowden    $____  ($417K / no arb)

    Morales    $ 850K 

    _______________________________________________ 

    Total Signed (Avg Annual salary including bonus): $148M (22 players)

    Plus 15 nonarb players ($15 x ~$450K= $6.75M) 

    New Est. Total: $154.8M before 3 arbs

    Now the 3 Arbs left to sign:

    Papi $12.65M or $16M (or agree to a deal)

    Bailey  $3.35M or $4.7M (or agree to a deal)

    Aceves $900K or $1.6M (or agree to a deal)

    Assuming no side deal:

    Total arb cost: $ 16.9M to $22.3M

    I'm going to assume Bailey agrees to $4.1M before arb and Aceves gets $1.3M. That adds $5.4M and a new est total of $160.3M before Papi.

    If Papi gets $12.65M, the total is $173M. If Papi gets $16M, it's $176.3M. I'm hoping we can work something out with a 2013 team option/buyout that will lessen the tax hit for 2012, maybe something like this: 2012: $13M, '13 team option $11M with a $1.4M buyout. That makes the salary count as $14.4M/2 or a $7.2M AVV. Let's assume Papi agrees to a deal similar to my suggestion. Our new est budget... 


    Luxury Tax Payroll Budget Total: ~$167.5 (before player benefit payment).

    Now, add the player benefits. I have heard $2M and $9M. I'm not sure which one it is. 

     

    TOTAL:  ~$169.5M if the benefits payment is $2M.


                    ~$176.5M if it is $9M.


    That means we will probably have between $1.5 and 8.5M to spend. 


    That number could come down if Lackey's deal is altered due to the injury clause. His AVV could go from $16.5 to $13.8M. (Subtract about $2.7M from our payroll budget for tax purposes). 

    $4.2M to $11.2M (with Lackey discount)

    It could also go down if we cut Miller loose from his nonguaranteed 1.04M deal. 

    $5.2M to $12.2M (cutting Miller)

    This is enough to trade for Floyd or probably enough to sign Oswalt.

    There is also the option of cutting any player who wins their arb deal (Papi?), but let's assume that won't happen.

    If we have $12.2M, we could trade for Floyd ($3.9M) and sign Oswalt to up to $8.3M (shouldn't cost that much).

    This could be our opening day roster:

    SP: Beckett, Lester, Buchholtz, Floyd, Oswalt, Doubront (LR)                                    

    RP: Bailey, Bard, Melancon, Aceves, Morales, Albers

    C: Salty, Shopp

    DH: Papi

    1B: AGon

    2B: Pedey

    3B: Youk

    SS: Aviles, Punto (Iggy until CC returns)

    LF: Ross (to RF when CC returns)

    CF: Ells

    RF: Sweeney

    Replacements: SP: Dice-K (July), Silva, Cook, Padilla, Miller, Mortensen, Haeger, Mathis, Duckworth, T. Pena, A.Wilson; RP: Jenks (Whenever), Bowden (out of options), Atchison (out of options), Tazawa, R. Hill (June), Germano, Carlson; C/DH: Lavarnway, Exposito;IF: Emaus, Middlebrooks, Spears, Ciriaco, Tejada, Anderson; OF: Kalish (May-June), Lin, Linares, Nava, Hassan, 


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    Miller will be cut. and for good reason. (He's awful.)

    Benefits are a flat $9mill per team, from what I've read.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    In Response to Re: How much money is left?:
    [QUOTE]Miller will be cut. and for good reason. (He's awful.) Benefits are a flat $9mill per team, from what I've read.
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]

    softy said it was $2M, but it makes sense he is wrong. He hasn't been right for over a year... on anything.

    Where did you read $9M?


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    Miller will be cut. and for good reason. (He's awful.)

    Benefits are a flat $9mill per team, from what I've read.

    Let's assume it's $9M. If my numbers are accurate, we're at $160.3$M before Papi.
    - $1M for cutting Miller.
    -$2.7M for adding a year on Lackey's deal (injury option)
    $156.6M New total before Papi.
    Sign Papi to $13.5M 2012 with club option$12M 2013 with $1M buyout for a AVV of $7.2M.
    That puts us at about $164M
    +9M 
    $173M New Total Estimate

    That leaves about $5M. We might get Oswalt for that; we won't get Garza or Jackson for that; we could get Floyd for that.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

      The low AAV for Gavin Floyd is intriguing.  Cutting loose some guys, via trade,  like Lars Anderson and Michael Bowden might also be helpful.  Coming into this off season I believed that exploring all opportunities to trade Carl Crawford would be worthwhile.  I wish I believed in Hanley Ramirez more strongly.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    We gave up on Renteria after just one year, and ended up paying about $20M for that year. I wonder if they even think about cutting their loses with CC (eating some of his salary via trade).
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    In Response to Re: How much money is left?:
    [QUOTE]We gave up on Renteria after just one year, and ended up paying about $20M for that year. I wonder if they even think about cutting their loses with CC (eating some of his salary via trade).
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
      I don't believe that the Red Sox should eat a large portion of Carl Crawford's salary.  I didn't want Crawford to begin with, but he could be an option for a team that missed out on signing a star and has a salary to trade back.  Miami and Hanley Ramirez comes to mind, as he may be an uncomfortable fit with that team.  The Sox could use a right handed hitting shortstop, but I'm not as optimististic about Hanley Ramirez' future as I would like to be.  I don't anticipate the the Red Sox receiving a trade offer for Carl Crawford that makes sense if it includes paying more than approximately 10% of his remaining salary.
     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    In Response to Re: How much money is left?:
    [QUOTE]We gave up on Renteria after just one year, and ended up paying about $20M for that year. I wonder if they even think about cutting their loses with CC (eating some of his salary via trade).
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I wouldn't doubt they think about it.  But at this point it's hard to imagine finding a matchup except maybe the Vernon Wells idea that's been tossed around.

    The sobering thought to me is that I can't see them having both Crawford and Ellsbury on the payroll in 2014.  Jacoby and Boras's big payday is on the horizon.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    In Response to Re: How much money is left?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: How much money is left? :   I don't believe that the Red Sox should eat a large portion of Carl Crawford's salary.  I didn't want Crawford to begin with, but he could be an option for a team that missed out on signing a star and has a salary to trade back.  Miami and Hanley Ramirez comes to mind, as he may be an uncomfortable fit with that team.  The Sox could use a right handed hitting shortstop, but I'm not as optimististic about Hanley Ramirez' future as I would like to be.  I don't anticipate the the Red Sox receiving a trade offer for Carl Crawford that makes sense if it includes paying more than approximately 10% of his remaining salary.
    Posted by vtfanofcs[/QUOTE]

    You are probably right. We owe $122M/6.

    We can not trade him for a bag of balls without paying 10% ($12M). I'd still do it: CC and $12M for nothing.

    I suppose we may have to pay more, and I'd consider doing it. 
    Think of what we could do right now with $18M a year (CC's salary - 10%). 
    Think of what we could do with $15M (by paying 25% of CC's deal).

    I have confidence that CC will return to his career norms here in Boston, but to me, that's only worth about $10-12M tops. Even if he repeats his career best season 6 times, he's not worth $15 or $18M either.

    I'm not bashing CC: just his salary.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    In Response to Re: How much money is left?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: How much money is left? : I wouldn't doubt they think about it.  But at this point it's hard to imagine finding a matchup except maybe the Vernon Wells idea that's been tossed around. The sobering thought to me is that I can't see them having both Crawford and Ellsbury on the payroll in 2014.  Jacoby and Boras's big payday is on the horizon.
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    What about CC for Zito?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    In Response to Re: How much money is left?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: How much money is left? : Moon, you are awesome. I read almost every post you author and your stats and thought process are just plain remarkable. Is there a chance that you are a Ron Paul believer with a better delivery. If you have his fiscal skills I would like you to run Treasury or the Fed and we might have a chance to survive because Ron cannot get elected if for no other reason than he will scare the hell out of the frozen.
    Posted by teddybaseball009[/QUOTE]

    Thanks. 

    As for fiscal skills, I used to play the market, and got very lucky, then got out just in time. I'm a saver. (I still clip coupons!  LOL)

    Ron Paul has a lot of ideas I agree with, but I don't want to get into politics. I might not be able to stop. (I'm a Political Science major from The University of Notre Dame.)

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from summerof67. Show summerof67's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    In Response to Re: How much money is left?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: How much money is left? : What about CC for Zito?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I dunno, moon.

    Would the Giants go for CC's salary?

    And is Zito done for his career - except perhaps to get a one-year safe landing contract (like the ones Theo used to specialize in)?  

    Zito used to give us fits when he pitched for Oakland. But that was awhile ago. These days, not so much.

    What think?                   
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    Moon, bad news for you and everyone else.  You came up with $160.3M before Papi, but only had $167.5M after Papi.  I understand that you're assuming a multiyear deal gets worked out, but that doesn't seem likely at this point.  Assuming the worst (to hopefully be pleasantly surprised later) the Sox are looking at $176.5M before benefits, or $185.5M after benefits.  
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: How much money is left?

    In Response to Re: How much money is left?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: How much money is left? : I dunno, moon. Would the Giants go for CC's salary? And is Zito done for his career - except perhaps to get a one-year safe landing contract (like the ones Theo used to specialize in)?   Zito used to give us fits when he pitched for Oakland. But that was awhile ago. These days, not so much. What think?                   
    Posted by summerof67[/QUOTE]

    I wasn't offering the trade because I think Zito will help, although I guess he might, but rather as a way to dump CC's salary. Zito is due $46M over the next 3 years (counting his buyout in 2014. His AVV was $18M, so we'd save about $2.1 on the tax limit numbers, if SF did not pay anything to offset us taking their almost entirely valueless player off their hands. I'd expect them to pay at least $8-10M. 

    That would mean we might save $5M/yr off the tax limit for the next 3 years, and then $20M/yr the following 3 years.

    SF gains much needed offense and essentially pays CC $132M for 6 yrs and not Zito $46M for 2 years of "service" (a net difference of $84M). It's like they are paying CC $14M/yr x 6 (assuming Zito would do nothing positive for them the next 2 yrs).

     

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