Re: HR: AGon 16, Jed 15, J.Upton 15, ARizzo 14,
posted at 9/26/2012 12:04 PM EDT
In response to notin's comment:
In response to southpaw777's comment:
Since Upton has been in MLB he has hit over 20hr's twice. 26, 31. The other years? 15, 17, 15...he seems to have the Josh Beckett syndrome of one good year, one bad year...Thats called inconsistant. I figured 5 years would be a big enough sample size.
Hes not worth the haul of prospects that Towers will command. Towers will want Bogaerts, Bradley and barnes. LL and the FO already said that the four B's (Barnes, Bradley, Brentz, and Bogaerts) are not available. Upton will hit free agency in 3 years in the first year of his prime years, 28. So we wouldnt even have him for his best years and will have to part with top prospects for a guy who has shown to be inconsistant at best...
Part of the reason he is âinconsistentâ as you say is that he just turned 25 and is already in his fifth MLB season as a starter. Please cite me a consistent MLB player with those credentials.
Last year, when the rumors about Upton circulated, fans liked to cite his home/road splits as a problem. No one investigated the big reason for them was the .400 OPS differential that Upton had at AGE TWENTY. As most Red Sox fans have never seen a 20yo starting position player, this was ignored and the ability to rationalize it did not exist yet.
Excited about our prospects? Nothing wrong with that, but consider this as you label Upton.
18yo A-ball - .834OPS 18yo A-ball - .757OPS
19yo A/AA - .883OPS 19yo A/AA - .961OPS
If you have no faith in Upton, why have any in Bogaerts, who, at the same ages, was better in A-ball but worse in the higher levels? And unlike Bogaerts, A-ball was Uptonâs first season in pro ball period, so there may have been some adjustment. Bogaerts played rookie ball at 17, but Upton was still in high school at the time and sleeping in his own bed. Upton did play 68PA worth of AAA at age 20, and had a .868OPS before being called up to MLB.
This year, Upton had the arm injury in April, and who knows how badly it has affected him. The only thing we do know is it certainly affected him negatively, since no player ever gets better when they are hurt. He is a terrific talent who would excel in Fenway. He will be a free agent at age 28, but citing that he will be better once he leaves as a reason to not get him is silly, at best. Does that mean he wont be good here? Its amazing that fans think Upton is an inconsistent Major Leaguer, yet somehow think Brentz (1 year younger) and Bradley (two and a half years younger) are surefire all stars whose performance will easily translate to MLB and who will only get better with age.
I do agree he will command top tier talent in return. Off-season or not, if he hits the market, many teams will put together packages for him. And Towers will have the easy job of pitting teams against each other in a bidding war. If he cost one Killer B, the deal is a no brainer (although dealing Bogaerts is going to be tough). Two, and it becomes a tough trigger to pull. All three should be cause for alarm.
3 years of Upton should easily cost more than 1.5 years of Mark Teixeira, and that acquisition cost Atlanta Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison, and Neftali Feliz. Two of those players (Andrus and Saltalamacchia) were BA Top 100 at the time, and were the Braves top 2 as ranked by the same organization. Harrison was their number 10. And they also threw in the raw, toolsy Feliz and another nobody prospect (and also received Ron Mahay).
The Sox equivalent for this certainly has to involve one or two from the Killer Bâs (and one cannot be Brentz, who AZ is likely to have very little interest in), and another player or two. Itâs a tough, tough trigger to pull. For Bradley, Webster and Cecchini, I make the deal. But I hope Bogaerts is untouchable.
By the way, I donât think Brentz is an untouchable per anyone in Sox management. I do think he wonât get remotely as much attention as the other three.
My whole point is if I agreed for our team to give the haul of prospects it will cost to get upton only until hes 28, I would rather have seen more like a .300 avg and around 25 HR a year. Not .270 and only hit 20hr twice out of those 5 years. 15, 17, 15 the other years.
Also, he has been benched on more than one occasion for his attitude. I dont think this team needs that around here anymore. If he starts doing bad or were losing again and he gets an attitude, fans will not let him here the end of it. I dont want to take that chance.
I look at his numbers and see a good year, then a so-so year. Add that to the very possible attitude issues hes given Arizona already and hes not woth giving up top prospects for IMO. Cody Ross gave us better production than Upton had this year. No, Im not comparing the two. Im just saying that we can get similar production for far less. Towers will want at least 2 of the B's. Especially if more than one team is interested in him.
We will have to agree to disagree on this one.