I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

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    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    We sure do need him this season, most important Pitcher for the Sox. Sorry not Buchholz. Lester is the key.

     



    Sorry. Its Buchholz. Ostensibly our ace; Lester is no ace.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Nope.

     

    he's a solid number 2.  He has a long body of work that proves that.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    He was aweful for a long long time. From April 24 to Aug 2 his ERA was 5.14. Thats over three months. Since then, over just his last four starts (=very small sample size) his ERA is 1.24

     That statement implies that he was bad through Aug 2, which he obviously wasn't.  Anyone that wanted to produce accurate research could clearly delineate his bad and good period.  His awful period was from 5/20-6/27 with an ERA of 6.99, bookending bad starts.

    His mediocre period was from 7/3-8/2 with a 4.25.

    His AS period were from 8/8-9/3 and from 4/1-5/15.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    "Thats not quite accurate, or at least its misleading. He was aweful for a long long time. From April 24 to Aug 2 his ERA was 5.14. Thats over three months. Since then, over just his last four starts (=very small sample size) his ERA is 1.24. If he can keep this up I will believe in Jon Lester, but right now, I would not trust him in a big game."

     

     

    Thats what you said PG, and heres my response...

     

     That overall ERA can be misleading too. A couple of bad games can easily inflate that. Just look at all his individual game logs. For the first month and a half he was great. For the next month and a week he was mostly bad and had a few bad outings. Since july hes been very good.

     

     

    Jon Lester

     

    Start - 5/15

     

    2.72ERA  59.2IP  9GS  50K 15BB 45H 18ER

     

    5/20 - 6/27

     

    6.99ERA  47.2IP  8GS  38K 24BB 61H 37ER

     

    7/3 - present

     

    2.91ERA  65IP  10GS  63H 21ER 53K 18BB

    So basically, Lester had one bad month in June. You claim hes been bad for a long time, but as you can obviously see, he hasnt. Your becoming like Bill and jackbu are is towards papi, only your target is Lester. Your claims are ampty and dont hold water. If you look at the whole picture put things in the correct context, not just cherry pick a stat that works for your arguement, you will clearly see that you are wrong. Lester is making the adjustments necessary and sometimes there are bumps in the road, but hes been a very good starting pitcher for most of the year. 4 of the 5 months anyway. June was obviously the outlier, not the norm.

     

     

     



    I have other posts that stated that overall for the year I think he has performed well and better than I expected. His main problem this year is inconsistency, so I am still not completely sold on Jon Lester. Which Lester will we see in September? The Lester from April 24 to Aug 2 (May AND June) or the Lester who has pitched well lately? I have consistently provided a fair and accurate assessment of what he has been doing. When he stunk, I called him on it; when he did well, I credited him with doing well. Some here, including you at times, have cherry picked the good periods in order to support an opinion that he is still a good pitcher, a premise I am not in full agreement with as yet. Here is what I wrote earlier ON THIS VERY THREAD, if you and Roy had just taken a moment to look at it:

    His ERA is, I believe, now under 4. Thats pretty good. I will be a believer if he can keep it up consistently. That has been his downfall: inconsistency. Still, I have to admit that season to date he has exceeded my expectations so far.

    Thats a fair and honest assessment, and it is certainly NOT bashing Lester. So don't bother to lump me with those who cannot see the facts. I can see them just fine.

     


    Ok, maybe the comparisons to bill and JB were a bit much...

    I havent cherry picked any times or stats though. Ive been unbias and fair in my assessments. Like this one where I picked out when he statrted being consitently bad, which was for about a month and a week. Th rest of the time hes been pretty normal with a bunch of consistently good starts and a couple not so good starts mixed in. That one stretch from 5/20-6/27 is where he was very inconsistent and just awful. I never tried to hide that. The only thing I said was that I still believed he is and will be a front line starter.

     

    The way you are trying to make it sound, like he has been bad for a long time, is just not true. you just used his ERA over a long period and didnt put it in the correct context. That was what I took issue with. nothing else. One bad month will certainly inflate an ERA and if the bullpen doesnt do their job, that will as well.

    The same was done with peavy.."OMG, he has a 4.5ERA!" . When you realize he pitched a game with a broken rib and started a 2nd (2IP) before they confirmed it was broken, you understand why he didnt pitch that good. He was a sub 3ERA pitcher this year until the broken rib. Those bad games inflated that ERA. Put in the correct context, you look at him a bit differently and dont pay so much attention to that 4.5ERA. Peavy has 5 GS with the Sox, 4 of them are 2 R or less. THSATS who he is, not the 4.5ERA pitcher.

    I remained constant that IMHO Lester will remain a front line starter and fully work through this rough transition in his career. I still stand by that.

     



    Of course you cherry pick your stats: we all do. You choose not to use my time period (April 24 to Aug 2) but choose to use a much smaller window in order to support your opinion that Lester is a good pitcher who had a few off weeks. ALL OF US use stats that support our position and how we view things. I am glad you think Lester will return to the form he had in 08 etc; I am not so convinced. He stunk for such a long time I want to see more of the "good Lester" before I can adopt that position. Right now, I don't know which Lester will show up on any given start.

    In any event, my post that initially contained the April 24 to Aug 2 period was in response to Bosox's post about him having only one bad month. This might be true if you look only at calendar months (I haven't even checked), but for a long period of time his ERA was over 5. To select calendar months is also cherry picking, and thats what I was responding to, not Lester's overall performance to date, which I have already said, is pretty good. You and Roy decided to jump down my throat about it because what you responded to was out of context. If you are going to criticize my opinion about a player, it should reflect my actual opinion.

     




    No I didnt cherry pick. I gave you all his stats for the whole year. How is that cherry picking? Id love to know. How is using ALL of his games throughout the year and finding the one time period where you can consider he was truly "bad" cherry picking? Sorry PG you are wrong.

    YOU used a time period that is not true and is cherry picked. How were his stats in July PG? How were his stats in April? from the 3rd week in May thru June he was awful. See thats your problem. You didnt break it down month by month like I did. You admitted you didnt even look at it that way. You just looked at his ERA and decided hes been bad for a long time. You didnt even do the proper research before you made your claim, and you accuse me of cherry picking?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    I have been one who has been pretty hard on Jon Lester this past year or so. I thought he was a bit pig headed, and stubborn to make the changes needed for him to succeed here, or anywhere for the second half of his carreer. But after watching him PITCH.....yesterday I think he has made me a believer. Yeah...I know he was great for us and I also know his numbers....but let's face it....he has been abysmal for TWO YEARS.If he continues PITCHING....and that is the key word here, the rest of the year like he did yesterday, I would seriously consider making him a priority to extend him for 4 yrs or so. Having him and Pedroia locked up ( two guys who grew up together as red sox for would be nice. There is no reason AT ALL thay Jon couldn't be our version of Andy Pettite ( without the peds) 

     His ERA is, I believe, now under 4. Thats pretty good. I will be a believer if he can keep it up consistently. That has been his downfall: inconsistency. Still, I have to admit that season to date he has exceeded my expectations so far.

     He really just had a bad month, he has been extremely consistent in every month besides then.

     

     

    Thats not quite accurate, or at least its misleading. He was aweful for a long long time. From April 24 to Aug 2 his ERA was 5.14. Thats over three months. Since then, over just his last four starts (=very small sample size) his ERA is 1.24. If he can keep this up I will believe in Jon Lester, but right now, I would not trust him in a big game.

     

     

    Pumpsie, 

    You're not even close to accurate if you're saying others are not. Check the stats month by month. Your figures are skewed because of a horrible month of July which raises his era for the longer three month period but your logic is faulty when you break down the stats. 

    After April 24th he started June with three good starts, after one lousy one to end April the then the last three starts in May and all of June was pretty mediocre, but  that was followed by July with 5 start, four good ones and one poor one with a solid 3.13 ERA for July followed by a similar month in August with 4 decent starts and one poor one with a 2.70ERA for the month. So in reality your information is based on your idea of reality which is like putting a screen door in sub. Your story doesn't hold water. 

     

    Hetch

     

     

     



    Please tell me which of my statistics is wrong. If you can prove that the numbers I provided are incorrect, I will admit I was wrong.

     

     

     




    I already did, and you said I "cherry picked" . Apparently I "cherry picked" the whole season.

    Listen, I can understand being skeptical PG, but you are clearly making it look worse than it really is.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    Big win last night, with Dempster going today. Easily could have been a sweep for Detroit. I dont expect much from Dempster today, but we wont get swept. I'll take 1 out of 3 from Detroit, and move on.

    Especially if the Rays lose, nothing gained, nothing lost.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    Big win last night, with Dempster going today. Easily could have been a sweep for Detroit. I dont expect much from Dempster today, but we wont get swept. I'll take 1 out of 3 from Detroit, and move on.




    Dempster isn't going to limit the Tigers to one run, that's for sure.

    The Sox have to light up Porcello.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Big win last night, with Dempster going today. Easily could have been a sweep for Detroit. I dont expect much from Dempster today, but we wont get swept. I'll take 1 out of 3 from Detroit, and move on.

     




    Dempster isn't going to limit the Tigers to one run, that's for sure.

     

    The Sox have to light up Porcello.

    [/QUOTE]


    Since Im not too confident Dempster will limit the damage, Im hoping for a football score and some offensive baseball tonight.

    If he does prove me wrong and has a game for himself, I hope for a football score anyway...only for the good guys though ;)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    I have been one who has been pretty hard on Jon Lester this past year or so. I thought he was a bit pig headed, and stubborn to make the changes needed for him to succeed here, or anywhere for the second half of his carreer. But after watching him PITCH.....yesterday I think he has made me a believer. Yeah...I know he was great for us and I also know his numbers....but let's face it....he has been abysmal for TWO YEARS.If he continues PITCHING....and that is the key word here, the rest of the year like he did yesterday, I would seriously consider making him a priority to extend him for 4 yrs or so. Having him and Pedroia locked up ( two guys who grew up together as red sox for would be nice. There is no reason AT ALL thay Jon couldn't be our version of Andy Pettite ( without the peds) 

     His ERA is, I believe, now under 4. Thats pretty good. I will be a believer if he can keep it up consistently. That has been his downfall: inconsistency. Still, I have to admit that season to date he has exceeded my expectations so far.

     He really just had a bad month, he has been extremely consistent in every month besides then.

     

     

    Thats not quite accurate, or at least its misleading. He was aweful for a long long time. From April 24 to Aug 2 his ERA was 5.14. Thats over three months. Since then, over just his last four starts (=very small sample size) his ERA is 1.24. If he can keep this up I will believe in Jon Lester, but right now, I would not trust him in a big game.

     

     

    Pumpsie, 

    You're not even close to accurate if you're saying others are not. Check the stats month by month. Your figures are skewed because of a horrible month of July which raises his era for the longer three month period but your logic is faulty when you break down the stats. 

    After April 24th he started June with three good starts, after one lousy one to end April the then the last three starts in May and all of June was pretty mediocre, but  that was followed by July with 5 start, four good ones and one poor one with a solid 3.13 ERA for July followed by a similar month in August with 4 decent starts and one poor one with a 2.70ERA for the month. So in reality your information is based on your idea of reality which is like putting a screen door in sub. Your story doesn't hold water. 

     

    Hetch

     

     

     



    Please tell me which of my statistics is wrong. If you can prove that the numbers I provided are incorrect, I will admit I was wrong.

     

     

     




    I already did, and you said I "cherry picked" . Apparently I "cherry picked" the whole season.

    Listen, I can understand being skeptical PG, but you are clearly making it look worse than it really is.

     



    Actually all you did was tell me my sample was misleading. I can understand that, but my stats are dead on. For now, I suggest we enjoy what Lester is doing. He has had a much better season than I expected and has really come on lately. If he can keep doing that in combination with an effective Buchholz we could go deep into the postseason.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    I have been one who has been pretty hard on Jon Lester this past year or so. I thought he was a bit pig headed, and stubborn to make the changes needed for him to succeed here, or anywhere for the second half of his carreer. But after watching him PITCH.....yesterday I think he has made me a believer. Yeah...I know he was great for us and I also know his numbers....but let's face it....he has been abysmal for TWO YEARS.If he continues PITCHING....and that is the key word here, the rest of the year like he did yesterday, I would seriously consider making him a priority to extend him for 4 yrs or so. Having him and Pedroia locked up ( two guys who grew up together as red sox for would be nice. There is no reason AT ALL thay Jon couldn't be our version of Andy Pettite ( without the peds) 

     His ERA is, I believe, now under 4. Thats pretty good. I will be a believer if he can keep it up consistently. That has been his downfall: inconsistency. Still, I have to admit that season to date he has exceeded my expectations so far.

     He really just had a bad month, he has been extremely consistent in every month besides then.

     

     

    Thats not quite accurate, or at least its misleading. He was aweful for a long long time. From April 24 to Aug 2 his ERA was 5.14. Thats over three months. Since then, over just his last four starts (=very small sample size) his ERA is 1.24. If he can keep this up I will believe in Jon Lester, but right now, I would not trust him in a big game.

     

     

    Pumpsie, 

    You're not even close to accurate if you're saying others are not. Check the stats month by month. Your figures are skewed because of a horrible month of July which raises his era for the longer three month period but your logic is faulty when you break down the stats. 

    After April 24th he started June with three good starts, after one lousy one to end April the then the last three starts in May and all of June was pretty mediocre, but  that was followed by July with 5 start, four good ones and one poor one with a solid 3.13 ERA for July followed by a similar month in August with 4 decent starts and one poor one with a 2.70ERA for the month. So in reality your information is based on your idea of reality which is like putting a screen door in sub. Your story doesn't hold water. 

     

    Hetch

     

     

     



    Please tell me which of my statistics is wrong. If you can prove that the numbers I provided are incorrect, I will admit I was wrong.

     

     

     




    I already did, and you said I "cherry picked" . Apparently I "cherry picked" the whole season.

    Listen, I can understand being skeptical PG, but you are clearly making it look worse than it really is.

     

     



    Actually all you did was tell me my sample was misleading. I can understand that, but my stats are dead on. For now, I suggest we enjoy what Lester is doing. He has had a much better season than I expected and has really come on lately. If he can keep doing that in combination with an effective Buchholz we could go deep into the postseason.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I am absolutely enjoying watching him get back to form. With the way Lester, lackey and Peavy are pitching, I would put them up against any 3 pitchers on any team right now. Add a healthy Buch to the mix and its almost unfair. What a game last night! I had to catch most of it on the radio, but got to watch it this morning. Should be in the chat tonight.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    Lester, even in his best years, loses his stuff for prolonged stretches of time.  In the past April + 1 month.  The past couple years, two non-April months.  This is just Jon Lester.  It is what keeps him from being a true ace.  But, when he manages to recover his form, he is maybe the best lefty in the game.  The people who are in a rush to destroy Lester don't take into account that he will come out of whatever frustrating funk he is in.  And the people wishing to anoint him as Elite when he is going good don't take into account that he will inevitably turn into a trainwreck at some point.  This is Jon Lester.  A sum of his elite best and launching pad worst.  In the end, he comes out on the Really Good Pitcher side of things.

     Farrell, knowing his charge of old, pulled a nice bit of management with his 10 rest assignment at the AS break.  Lester came back hitting on all cylendars.  Hope he can finish strong.        
     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    Lester, even in his best years, loses his stuff for prolonged stretches of time.  In the past April + 1 month.  The past couple years, two non-April months.  This is just Jon Lester.  It is what keeps him from being a true ace.  But, when he manages to recover his form, he is maybe the best lefty in the game.  The people who are in a rush to destroy Lester don't take into account that he will come out of whatever frustrating funk he is in.  And the people wishing to anoint him as Elite when he is going good don't take into account that he will inevitably turn into a trainwreck at some point.  This is Jon Lester.  A sum of his elite best and launching pad worst.  In the end, he comes out on the Really Good Pitcher side of things.

     Farrell, knowing his charge of old, pulled a nice bit of management with his 10 rest assignment at the AS break.  Lester came back hitting on all cylendars.  Hope he can finish strong.        



    Lots of players go into slumps.  It's only with the RS 'fans' that a slump means a player stinks.

    Verlander was atrocious over the same period as Lester with a 6.06 over 9 starts.  3.25 since.

    Fister has a 3.66, but has 4 starts with 6 ERs or more.

    Matt Moore has been stunningly erratic.  11 starts with a 2.18  4 starts with a 10.61, and now 7 starts with a 1.76.

    Price had 8 starts with a 5.51 followed by 12 starts with a 2.12.

    Cliff Lee had a 6-game stretch with a 5.17.

    Lincecum almost neve has a mediocre game.  He has 7 starts of 1 run or less, and 8 starts of 5 runs or more.

    Greinke had a 9-game stretch with a 5.16.

    King Felix' ERA in his last 6 games is 6.42.

    This is what pitchers do.  It doesn't necessarily mean that they are pitching that badly either.  Felix has a very reasonable 34/12 K/W over that stretch.  Only 3 HRs but a .357 BABIP, and seemingly everyone is scoring.  But for people that don't look at numbers, they won't realize how often slumps happen.

    That's why we have had threads about getting rid of almost  every player on the team.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    I have been one who has been pretty hard on Jon Lester this past year or so. I thought he was a bit pig headed, and stubborn to make the changes needed for him to succeed here, or anywhere for the second half of his carreer. But after watching him PITCH.....yesterday I think he has made me a believer. Yeah...I know he was great for us and I also know his numbers....but let's face it....he has been abysmal for TWO YEARS.If he continues PITCHING....and that is the key word here, the rest of the year like he did yesterday, I would seriously consider making him a priority to extend him for 4 yrs or so. Having him and Pedroia locked up ( two guys who grew up together as red sox for would be nice. There is no reason AT ALL thay Jon couldn't be our version of Andy Pettite ( without the peds) 



    Hey, I was suggesting a trade mid-season.

     

    Such is the fickle nature of success in baseball, especially pitching.

     

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to ThefourBs's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to S5's comment:

     

    If you are going to criticize my opinion about a player, it should reflect my actual opinion.

    OK. How's about coming up with an opinion and sticking to it.  Over the past month you've vaciallated between "Loester" to his being a "bum" to his being "mediocre", to being, "not as bad as I thought", to being "inconsistent" to being "pretty good". It changes from day to day and outing to outing. 

    Lester is a pitcher and pitchers are inconsistent by nature.  You can't take one or two starts or even a month's worth and say that's what a pitcher "is".  They all make adjustments.  They all struggle at times.  They al lhave times when the ball just feels good.  If he gives up 5 runs in three innings in his next outing he's not "Loester" just like if he pitches a CG shutout he's not the next coming of Denny McLain. 

    So what is he?

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     



    Vacillating means never having to say "I was wrong".  Wink

     

     



    On the contrary: vascillating forces one to admit that his or her previously held position was wrong. At the end of the season, if Lester has an ERA similar to what it is now, I would be forced to admit I was wrong about him. If I maintained that he stinks in the face of evidence to the contrary I would not have to do so. I would just keep repeating my fallacious opinion, never admitting I was wrong because my opinion never changed.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    ?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    I'll just say that I HOPE I was wrong about Jon Lester. True, he has kicked it in and won more big games  than ever this year, but all that has to happen is for him to get his head handed to him by Cleveland, or worse Tampa, and it will all be for naught. His history has been to choke in big games, hes just always done it. So now lets see if hes really arrived, or if its all smoke.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    I have been one who has been pretty hard on Jon Lester this past year or so. I thought he was a bit pig headed, and stubborn to make the changes needed for him to succeed here, or anywhere for the second half of his carreer. But after watching him PITCH.....yesterday I think he has made me a believer. Yeah...I know he was great for us and I also know his numbers....but let's face it....he has been abysmal for TWO YEARS.If he continues PITCHING....and that is the key word here, the rest of the year like he did yesterday, I would seriously consider making him a priority to extend him for 4 yrs or so. Having him and Pedroia locked up ( two guys who grew up together as red sox for would be nice. There is no reason AT ALL thay Jon couldn't be our version of Andy Pettite ( without the peds) 



    Die hard Sox fans believe your only as good as your next game.Sox fans are the biggest rollercoaster in all sports......Watch what happens if sox get knocked out.... Trade trade trade. Gm sucks Manager must go. Owners don't care......and on and on and on... bla bla bla........Everything is good right now........ But WATCH OUT !.... Sure hope i don't see it this year.But face the fact..... It's there... big time !!!!

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: I think I was WRONG about Jon Lester

    In response to TheExaminer's comment:

    I'll just say that I HOPE I was wrong about Jon Lester. True, he has kicked it in and won more big games  than ever this year, but all that has to happen is for him to get his head handed to him by Cleveland, or worse Tampa, and it will all be for naught. His history has been to choke in big games, hes just always done it. So now lets see if hes really arrived, or if its all smoke.

     



    Does that history of choking include pitching shutout ball to win the 2007 WS?

    Or his 11-5 record against our chief nemesis?

     

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