In response to southpaw777's comment:
In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
In response to southpaw777's comment:
"Thats not quite accurate, or at least its misleading. He was aweful for a long long time. From April 24 to Aug 2 his ERA was 5.14. Thats over three months. Since then, over just his last four starts (=very small sample size) his ERA is 1.24. If he can keep this up I will believe in Jon Lester, but right now, I would not trust him in a big game."
Thats what you said PG, and heres my response...
That overall ERA can be misleading too. A couple of bad games can easily inflate that. Just look at all his individual game logs. For the first month and a half he was great. For the next month and a week he was mostly bad and had a few bad outings. Since july hes been very good.
Start - 5/15
2.72ERA 59.2IP 9GS 50K 15BB 45H 18ER
5/20 - 6/27
6.99ERA 47.2IP 8GS 38K 24BB 61H 37ER
7/3 - present
2.91ERA 65IP 10GS 63H 21ER 53K 18BB
So basically, Lester had one bad month in June. You claim hes been bad for a long time, but as you can obviously see, he hasnt. Your becoming like Bill and jackbu are is towards papi, only your target is Lester. Your claims are ampty and dont hold water. If you look at the whole picture put things in the correct context, not just cherry pick a stat that works for your arguement, you will clearly see that you are wrong. Lester is making the adjustments necessary and sometimes there are bumps in the road, but hes been a very good starting pitcher for most of the year. 4 of the 5 months anyway. June was obviously the outlier, not the norm.
I have other posts that stated that overall for the year I think he has performed well and better than I expected. His main problem this year is inconsistency, so I am still not completely sold on Jon Lester. Which Lester will we see in September? The Lester from April 24 to Aug 2 (May AND June) or the Lester who has pitched well lately? I have consistently provided a fair and accurate assessment of what he has been doing. When he stunk, I called him on it; when he did well, I credited him with doing well. Some here, including you at times, have cherry picked the good periods in order to support an opinion that he is still a good pitcher, a premise I am not in full agreement with as yet. Here is what I wrote earlier ON THIS VERY THREAD, if you and Roy had just taken a moment to look at it:
His ERA is, I believe, now under 4. Thats pretty good. I will be a believer if he can keep it up consistently. That has been his downfall: inconsistency. Still, I have to admit that season to date he has exceeded my expectations so far.
Thats a fair and honest assessment, and it is certainly NOT bashing Lester. So don't bother to lump me with those who cannot see the facts. I can see them just fine.
Ok, maybe the comparisons to bill and JB were a bit much...
I havent cherry picked any times or stats though. Ive been unbias and fair in my assessments. Like this one where I picked out when he statrted being consitently bad, which was for about a month and a week. Th rest of the time hes been pretty normal with a bunch of consistently good starts and a couple not so good starts mixed in. That one stretch from 5/20-6/27 is where he was very inconsistent and just awful. I never tried to hide that. The only thing I said was that I still believed he is and will be a front line starter.
The way you are trying to make it sound, like he has been bad for a long time, is just not true. you just used his ERA over a long period and didnt put it in the correct context. That was what I took issue with. nothing else. One bad month will certainly inflate an ERA and if the bullpen doesnt do their job, that will as well.
The same was done with peavy.."OMG, he has a 4.5ERA!" . When you realize he pitched a game with a broken rib and started a 2nd (2IP) before they confirmed it was broken, you understand why he didnt pitch that good. He was a sub 3ERA pitcher this year until the broken rib. Those bad games inflated that ERA. Put in the correct context, you look at him a bit differently and dont pay so much attention to that 4.5ERA. Peavy has 5 GS with the Sox, 4 of them are 2 R or less. THSATS who he is, not the 4.5ERA pitcher.
I remained constant that IMHO Lester will remain a front line starter and fully work through this rough transition in his career. I still stand by that.
Of course you cherry pick your stats: we all do. You choose not to use my time period (April 24 to Aug 2) but choose to use a much smaller window in order to support your opinion that Lester is a good pitcher who had a few off weeks. ALL OF US use stats that support our position and how we view things. I am glad you think Lester will return to the form he had in 08 etc; I am not so convinced. He stunk for such a long time I want to see more of the "good Lester" before I can adopt that position. Right now, I don't know which Lester will show up on any given start.
In any event, my post that initially contained the April 24 to Aug 2 period was in response to Bosox's post about him having only one bad month. This might be true if you look only at calendar months (I haven't even checked), but for a long period of time his ERA was over 5. To select calendar months is also cherry picking, and thats what I was responding to, not Lester's overall performance to date, which I have already said, is pretty good. You and Roy decided to jump down my throat about it because what you responded to was out of context. If you are going to criticize my opinion about a player, it should reflect my actual opinion.
No I didnt cherry pick. I gave you all his stats for the
. How is that cherry picking? Id love to know. How is using ALL of his games throughout the year and finding the one time period where you can consider he was truly "bad" cherry picking? Sorry PG you are wrong.
YOU used a time period that is not true and is cherry picked. How were his stats in July PG? How were his stats in April? from the 3rd week in May thru June he was awful. See thats your problem. You didnt break it down month by month like I did. You admitted you didnt even look at it that way. You just looked at his ERA and decided hes been bad for a long time. You didnt even do the proper research before you made your claim, and you accuse me of cherry picking?