I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jaytf25. Show jaytf25's posts

    I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    First of all has the rain and wind reached Mass. and RI yet? It's windy and rainy in Philly here(65 mph gusts). Stay safe. Second I'm happy with our record after our 2-10 start but I think we have a tough schedule ahead. Two series with the Yanks, Two with the Rays, Two with the Jays, and one with the Rangers. I'm hoping with 29 games left we go 16-13, 17-12 for 98 or 99 wins but I see it maybe be just a little over 500. I have a feeling we may get the wild card which I would take but I don't want the Rangers in the first round. I'm just being realistic because we've been so streaky. I hope I'm wrong and we go 18-11 or 19-10, but I don't see it.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from The-dude. Show The-dude's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    Jays are cooling off. Ditto Texas. We own the Yankees. TB got lucky last series (Sox were coming off long trip from Seattle and were thus tired). Things look good.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    Look at the Yanks schedule. They have 4 more games to play than us.
    They have just 1 day off between now and the end of the season. 
    (32 games in 32 days)
    Bal(2), Bal
    @Bos 3
    v Tor 3
    v Bal 3
    @Bal 1
    @LAA 3
    @Sea 3
    (Day off)
    @Tor 3
    v MN 1
    v TB 3
    v Bos 3
    @TB 3

    When's the last time a team had a Sunday scheduled off?

    The Sox have 2 days off to rest up the pen for the Yanks.
    v NYY 3
    v Tex 3
    @Tor 4
    @ TB 3
    v Tor 2
    v TB 4
    v Bal 4
    (Day off)
    @ NYY 3
    @ Bal 3

    In total:
    We have ...
    6 with NYY (NYY has 6 vs Bos)
    7 with TB    (NYY has 6 vs TB)
    6 with Tor   (NYY has 6 vs Tor)
    7 with Bal   (NYY has 8 vs Bal)
    3 with Tex  (NYY has 3 vs LA)
                         (NY has 3 vs Sea)
                         (NY has 1 vs MN)
    The difference is essentially we have 1 more vs TB, and they have 1 more vs Bal. We have 3 vs Tex and they have 3 vs LAA, then the 4 extra games are NY's 3 vs Sea and 1 vs MN.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's:
    Look at the Yanks schedule. They have 4 more games to play than us. They have just 1 day off between now and the end of the season.  (32 games in 32 days) Bal(2), Bal @Bos 3 v Tor 3 v Bal 3 @Bal 1 @LAA 3 @Sea 3 (Day off) @Tor 3 v MN 1 v TB 3v Bos 3 @TB 3When's the last time a team had a Sunday scheduled off? The Sox have 2 days off to rest up the pen for the Yanks. v NYY 3 v Tex 3 @Tor 4 @ TB 3 v Tor 2 v TB 4 v Bal 4 (Day off) @ NYY 3 @ Bal 3 In total: We have ... 6 with NYY (NYY has 6 vs Bos) 7 with TB    (NYY has 6 vs TB) 6 with Tor   (NYY has 6 vs Tor) 7 with Bal   (NYY has 8 vs Bal) 3 with Tex  (NYY has 3 vs LA)                      (NY has 3 vs Sea)                      (NY has 1 vs MN) The difference is essentially we have 1 more vs TB, and they have 1 more vs Bal. We have 3 vs Tex and they have 3 vs LAA, then the 4 extra games are NY's 3 vs Sea and 1 vs MN.
    Posted by moonslav59



    Nice research.  I like our chances. Good teams bring out the best in Boston.
    I think NY's west coast trip and playing the Rays will be their sore spot.
    Rays will make for a tough spoiler.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    Did you see what the Os did to the Yankees yesterday?
     
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    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's:
    Did you see what the Os did to the Yankees yesterday?
    Posted by carnie


    I saw the results.
    Carnie, checkout the WE ALMOST SWEPT TEXAS thread
    (page 3). My first posts were to you.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    The Mel McDaniels stuff was very nice. Great country voice. That Dukes of Dixieland track was off the hook though. I'd never heard of them before. Thanks for the turn on. BTW did you see that Merle is going to be in SF for hardly strictly bluegrass this year?
     
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    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's:
    The Mel McDaniels stuff was very nice. Great country voice. That Dukes of Dixieland track was off the hook though. I'd never heard of them before. Thanks for the turn on. BTW did you see that Merle is going to be in SF for hardly strictly bluegrass this year?
    Posted by carnie


    Not until you mentioned it. Nice to see Hag  going strong.
    I wasn't aware of McDaniel's passing this year. It saddened me.
    He really paid his dues. Had a  bad accident in the mid-90's. Was never the same after it.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's:
    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's : Not until you mentioned it. Nice to see Hag  going strong. I wasn't aware of McDaniel's passing this year. It saddened me. He really paid his dues. Had a  bad accident in the mid-90's. Was never the same after it.
    Posted by harness
    You should come down for the show. jesseyeric might show up too.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's:
    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's : Nice research.  I like our chances. Good teams bring out the best in Boston. I think NY's west coast trip and playing the Rays will be their sore spot. Rays will make for a tough spoiler.
    Posted by harness

    The way TB's pitching is going, they could be real tough.

     
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    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's:
    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's : You should come down for the show. jesseyeric might show up too.
    Posted by carnie



    Afraid my traveling days are over, Carnie. Besides, I saw Hag in his prime. He'll never be better. A true country legend.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's:
    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's : Afraid my traveling days are over, Carnie . Besides, I saw Hag in his prime. He'll never be better. A true country legend.
    Posted by harness
    You never know, Octobers in Golden Gate Park have a tendency to become legendary. Smile
     
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    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    True dat.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from S0ftl@w. Show S0ftl@w's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    Days off and way schedule road trips are slotted give Red Sox slight probability advantage. Probability range is 98 to 100.

    The first road trip starts with a short 52M up and down flight to Toronto. It is followed by a 2 hour flight to Tampa. Most importantly is a day off follows the 2.5 hour back to Boston.

    The final road trip begins after another day off before @NY and @ Baltimore which involve short commuter travel time to end season.

    About as easy a travel schedule as it gets.

    16 home games X .615 = 10 + 13 road games X .617 = 8 Total = 18 or 100W  

    Red Sox play all but 3 games v. AL East and are 31-15 v AL East = .673

    .673 X 29 = 17 wins + 1 or 2 v. Texas = 100 or 101

    Yankees 19 road x .596 = 11   +   14 home x .612 =  9 = 20 Total = 98

    Yankees have slightly easier strength of schedule but west coast travel, more road games and doubleheader compressed schedule strongly favors Red Sox.

    Probability range Red Sox 98-100  Yankees 97-99 

    Since tie goes to Red Sox, probabilty odds strongly say Red Sox win division.

    Once it becomes clear one team is out of division race, likey Yankees, both teams will rest for playoffs and play a lot of subs the last 1 or 2 games of the season and numbers will likely skew probability range by 1 or 2 games less and a 97-98 1st and 96-97 in 2nd. 

    100 is a difficult bench mark and a nice cap feather that frequently means WS but unless it can be done while allowing starters to rest near end it would be counter productive to even consider it. 

    Important history Notes:

    The last Red Sox team to win 100 or more was 65 years ago when the 1946 Red Sox won 104 games in a 154 game season, and only 3 Red Sox teams in 103 year Red Sox era history have won 100 games. Only 100 or more team not to win world title was 1946 team, losing WS in 7 to Cards 

    1912 Red Sox won team record 105 in a 152 game season
    1915 Red Sox won 101 in a 151 games played season

    In the last 32 years, only 2 Red Sox teams have won more than 95 games, both winning a world title. 

    Pray Buch is healthy for playoffs and Phillies are upset and/or get bad side of injury luck

       
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from promise4you. Show promise4you's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    Huh, it takes only two hours to fly from Toronto to Tampa Bay (1097 miles) Yet it takes 2.5 hours to fly from Tampa Bay to Boston 1185 (miles). 25% more time to fly 8% more miles. Now I know why Wake And Ells Stink! BTW ive taken these flights and anyone that flies a lot will tell you after a while you just get used to it and the fatigue issue is more than what is made of it!
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jaytf25. Show jaytf25's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's:
    Days off and way schedule road trips are slotted give Red Sox slight probability advantage. Probability range is 98 to 100. The first road trip starts with a short 52M up and down flight to Toronto. It is followed by a 2 hour flight to Tampa. Most importantly is a day off follows the 2.5 hour back to Boston. The final road trip begins after another day off before @NY and @ Baltimore which involve short commuter travel time to end season. About as easy a travel schedule as it gets. 16 home games X .615 = 10 + 13 road games X .617 = 8 Total = 18 or 100W   Red Sox play all but 3 games v. AL East and are 31-15 v AL East = .673 .673 X 29 = 17 wins + 1 or 2 v. Texas = 100 or 101 Yankees 19 road x .596 = 11   +   14 home x .612 =  9 = 20 Total = 98 Yankees have slightly easier strength of schedule but west coast travel, more road games and doubleheader compressed schedule strongly favors Red Sox. Probability range Red Sox 98-100  Yankees 97-99  Since tie goes to Red Sox, probabilty odds strongly say Red Sox win division. Once it becomes clear one team is out of division race, likey Yankees, both teams will rest for playoffs and play a lot of subs the last 1 or 2 games of the season and numbers will likely skew probability range by 1 or 2 games less and a 97-98 1st and 96-97 in 2nd.  100 is a difficult bench mark and a nice cap feather that frequently means WS but unless it can be done while allowing starters to rest near end it would be counter productive to even consider it.  Important history Notes: The last Red Sox team to win 100 or more was 65 years ago when the 1946 Red Sox won 104 games in a 154 game season, and only 3 Red Sox teams in 103 year Red Sox era history have won 100 games. Only 100 or more team not to win world title was 1946 team, losing WS in 7 to Cards  1912 Red Sox won team record 105 in a 152 game season 1915 Red Sox won 101 in a 151 games played season In the last 32 years, only 2 Red Sox teams have won more than 95 games, both winning a world title.  Pray Buch is healthy for playoffs and Phillies are upset and/or get bad side of injury luck    
    Posted by S0ftl@w


    Sorry to correct you Softy but the 77 Red Sox went 97-64 and finished tied for 2nd, a game and a half behind the Yanks. And of course 1978.(Ugh!!!) 99-64 and....well we know what happened.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from S0ftl@w. Show S0ftl@w's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    That is more than 32 years, so no correction needed.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jaytf25. Show jaytf25's posts

    Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's

    In Response to Re: I think we have a pretty tough schedule ahead. All games tough except for the O's:
    That is more than 32 years, so no correction needed.
    Posted by S0ftl@w

    Oops, didn't read it enough that it said 32 years. You're right, sorry.
     
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