Re: If 2013 proves to be a failure......
posted at 1/4/2013 4:13 PM EST
In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
In response to parhunter55's comment:
How do you know they won't win fewer than 70 games again, did you ask your magic 8 ball?
Exactly. And then I asked the Ouija board. And then I looked at the tea leaves in my Ginseng tea cup. Finally, I asked the Long Island Medium.
Then I looked at the roster and based on what I know of the talent they have (and noticing improved talent at almost every position over last year that needed improvement) I offered my prediction. Since Alibi was asking for answers that could only be predictive (or what would otherwise be called opinion) I offered my mine: The Sox WILL NOT win fewer than 70 games next season.
Do you think otherwise? What are your reasons, other than being a troll?
I'm not sure if they will or not. Nobody expected them to do as poorly as they did last year, anything can happen.
To say definitively that they will not is just your homer opinion, not a fact.
You are an troll and an idiot if you think anyone answered Alibi's 4 questions with FACTS (or even could). We will not know the FACTS until the 2013 season is over. Alibi asked for opinion, as I made quite clear. Predictions are nothing more than opinions (Long Island Mediums aside) as none are FACT. But some predictions/opinions are better than others because they are based on FACTS.
FACT. Turns out that bettors beat the Vegas odds this past football season. Either there was just an inordinant amount of luck, or people made bets based on better data (FACTS). For instance: you should always bet on the west coast team to beat the spread on the east coast host if the game is a night game. The FACT is that the West coast team beats the spread a statistically significant amount of the time. But predicting that that will always be the case would be wrong. It is NOT a FACT that they ALWAYS win. It is just good judgement to predict that they will beat the point spread and to place your money on said prediction.
I am willing to place my money on the prediction that the Sox win more than 69 games next season. I am willing to do so because they will have a better manager, better (functioning) coaching staff, improved depth in the bullpen, starting rotation and catching corps, as much production out of Gomes as they did C. Ross, have better talent in Victorino than in Nava/Kalsih/Podsednik et al in RF, will have Middlebrooks and Ells healthy and back in the lineup, and one hopes Napoli will play at 1st becuase he is is far better than Loney (offensiviely at least). I also believe Steven Drew is a better talent than Mike Aviles, though I thought Aviles was decent.
Manager/coaches, starting pitching, relief pitching (especially closer), 1B, catching, SS, 3B and all the outfield spots were all trouble spots last year that are improved this year. Some of that is opinion, I grant you. But Ells and Middlebrooks being recovered from injury is FACT. D. Ross improving the depth at catcher is FACT. Napoli being a better offensive player than Loney is FACT. Hanrahan and Uehara providing depth and better closer options in the bullpen is opinion based on FACT (look up the statistics on all 3--Aceves was a terrible closer last season). Dempster being depth at the back end of the rotation is opinion based on FACT. Doubront was not bad, but he pitched 160 innings (FACT) and the increase in innings was much greater than 50% over what he pitched the year before (FACT--it was actually close to 1500% increase). Counting on him pitching 190-200 innings would be foolish. Counting on Dempster to do the same is not foolish (since the FACT is he has done it for 5 out of the last 6 years).
Will all these guys do better than the guys last year, or even match their own career norms? No. But it is foolish to bet against each one doing that, knowing the FACTS. Do I believe Ben is done? No. (Another reason that I predict that the Sox will win more games than they did in 2012.) It is January 4th, and the Napoli situation isn't even settled. This team's 40-man roster will look different come February 20th. Is that a prediction? Yes. Is it based on FACT? Yes. The FACT is that almost every team's 40-man roster looks different in the third week of February than it does in the first week of January. And more different still by opening day. Unlike some here, I trust that Ben will make moves to improve the roster, not ruin it. If that makes me a homer, so be it.