If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    In Response to Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps... : Well I understand prideful guys. And I am not into the cancer theory or the guessing games that seem to plague RS Nation right now. I stated that none of it should have an impact on the decisions for the 2012 roster. However, there was and is no basis to assume papelbon was an issue in that regard, in fact the GM last Thursday went out of his way to praise Papelbon on his emerging leadership during 2011. I was pointing out that out of the two players, that there was lots of circumstantial evidence that Ortiz may well have been one of the veterans who had his own agenda in 2011 and did not have others backs, including Francona who frankly has had Ortiz's back over the last 8 years plenty of times. It isn't an easy decision. The Angels probably felt better about not being able to afford K-Rod when he had all the off field issues but they have not been back to the playoffs since he left, in a very winnable division and a great starting rotation. Personally I am sick of hearing about Papelbon's problems in that final series in Baltimore. The tipping point was a great multi-inning performance in extra innings in NY. Then of course he had to be used in Baltimore. He was on fumes in that last game. But for all everybody forgets he just blew away the first two batters and was a strike away from a 1-2-3 out save. Either or both of these guys may be worth more to somebody else and if they are so be it. But it should be about the players value to the team, not what anybody did in tiny samples sets or that some one is part of this alleged cancer. IMO it wasn't a cancer, it was a case of the flu if health analogies must be used. Just my take
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    I agree on guys like Pap to an extent katz but its sort of a double edged sord.  Pap gets us through the season will above average success but more often than not recently blows the big game when we need it to advance or get to the PS.  I'm on the fence with guy like Pap but do know we need upgrades and Pap and Papi will be heavilily involved with those decisions,
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    craze, I get your point, but most closers have histories of big blown saves here or there. Others have no history, because they've never pitched in a big game. I'm not one to judge on small sample sizes of 2-3 games over the last 2-3 years.

    As always, what are our options? What are the costs? What are the alternatives?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    To follow-up on Moon's response Craze, "more often than not" the best I can tell is a couple of games in 2009 and 2011. Paps body of work over his first six seasons is darn impressive. he is without argument the best FA at what he does in 2011.

    Harness, I would have agreed without reservation about what you say about Bard at the start of the season. I do not think retaining Papelbon is as much about Bard as closer as it is the dominos that fall when you subtract Bard as the late hold guy by replacing Papelbon with him. I think the FO collected a lot of guys for the 2011 season hoping Bard's replacement will emerge. The fact that they did not makes the decision much harder.

    IMO the RS felt that changes they made for this season would make Ortiz and Papelbon more expendable than they are at the conclusion of this season. They had hoped to get into the playoffs and go deep, making it easier to walk too. Most of all not knowing where they are going to set the 2012 budget, it appeared they spent they payroll relief they will get from these guys walking on other players on the current roster's accelerating contracts.

    But while we pine about the range of the SS, the over all skills of the catcher and the lack of RH bat in the OF, it is unclear that fixing those issues would make the RS a better team if they lose the overall productivity of the bullpen and /or offensive fire power at DH.

    Staring pitching depth is the biggest issue of course, it is what separates the September RS from the May-August RS. I fear that this will not be a big splash fix, so freeing up $25M a year may not fix it?

    I honestly don't know how to handicap what the RS will do without knowing the if the budget is fixed at around $165M AAV for 2012.  And if it is fixed at that figure I am glad I don't have to be the guy to figure that one out. :) After all, after the the 1B on the market, our two FAs may be the best players available, assuming Sabathia doe snot opt out and/or opts to restructure with the NYY.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    I figured we'd have about $30M to spend with all our FAs and options not counted. We need to fill these slots:
    SP
    RP
    SP
    RP
    RF
    SS
    DH
    C2

    with kids, FAs or via trades.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    Assuming Theo is here, a disaster, Theo not budging is laughable. Theo is a true nepotism bean counter of incompetency.   
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxmeister. Show soxmeister's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    1958 was a great year for Les Pauls ... 

    But Theo is not that bad, the Lackey signing was looked at as a great deal by most in MLB when they signed him.  Lackey just let his whole life crumble.   Maybe he can be a good 5th starter, replace Wake in the pecking order.   But I don't think Crawford was a bad signing.  He will prove his worth.  

    We did get Agon in a trade.  Good deal there.   So Theo is average.   Friedman would be a good replacement if Theo leaves ....
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    In Response to Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...:
    [QUOTE]Bean, I understand your point on the "neither" vote. To me, no closer save Mo has ever been worth over $13M/yr, let alone for 3-5 years like Paps might get. He will be missed, but the I look at what else we can get for $13-14M/yr and I don't think Bard is as bad as some here think. To me, Papi will be hard to replace and even harder to watch in a Rays uniform. I think the Yanks are keeping their DH slot open for ARod and his bum hip (just in case). I like the idea of prolonging Youk's career by letting him DH 30-50% of the games, letting AGon "rest" with 10% at DH, and giving the rest to Lowrie and Lavarnway. I'm always for upgrading the rotation from the top (or at least the middle), and signing Papi and Paps would mean that can't happen unless we greatly increase our payroll budget or get lucky with guys like Colon and Garcia for the Yanks this year. Maybe Theo can find two more Aceves, and a quality RF bat that would compensate for the loss of Papi. Sidenote: our worst positional OPS last year was not catcher (.737). It was not SS (730). It was not LF (.723). It was RF (.652). If we could get an .800 OPS RF'er (or Rf platoon), we could afford to go from .925 at DH in 2011 to .775 and (in theory) break even. I think we could do this at way less than the $10-12M/yr it will take to bring back Papi. It's a tough call. One day I want Papi back, the next day Paps, the next day both, and the next day I see the logic in neither. I do know a starting pitcher is my top priority, so I guess I'd try to land one early, and then see what's left over for other decisions.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon,

    My take on Papi is that i'd be fine with resigning him as long as it doesn't prevent us from aquiring a RH OF bat (Willingham/Cuddyer type or aquire a like talant in a deal using Reddick & Anderson as the chips). Again I'm a strong proponat of opening up the DH spot and I'd like the idea of letting Crawford have a go at RF that opens up the field a bit more when talking OFer...

    Lets also remember that Youkilis is entering the last year of his contract and frankly I have trouble envivisioning him as our everyday 3rd baseman, staying in the lineup for 600 at bats and posting what was his career norms (900 ops). So aside from the outfield and bolstering the starting rotation...To me job #1 this offseason is to assertain the prognosis of a full return to health for Youk and if they preoject him not to be fully healthy by camp or at minimum by May 1st then they'll need to look at finding our longterm 3rd baseman...Aviles can surely hold down the fort in the short term, but IMHO has hands of stone, but I like his bat and athleticism...On a side note: this spring I'd like to see if Middlebrook's who's just turned 23 (our #1 prospect) has the tools to be an above average defender and hit 20 homers and bat 280-330-425-775ish, bascially Mike Lowell without the gold glove...

    SS I'm fine with Scutaro and Aviles although I would love to see the kid Iglisias given a shot...I'm just an old school guy that likes my SS to be the best athlete on the team with gold glove skills...Scutaro is not that guy but I love everything else about his game so picking up his options seems like a no brainer...

    This might go against what is the expected norms but IMHO the Sox need to use this offseason to retool the bench and lengthen the lineup...

    I'd start with cutting Lowrie, sorry but I see him as fools gold, I get that he could be a great utility guy but the problem is he just can't stay healthy and I see it as a waste to continue to hope this kid can stay on the field and his glove is marginal at best...I'd much prefer we had a guy that could play both corner infield spots like an Eric Hinke type or even Connor Jackson guys with a little pop and a veteren presense...I don't mind having say a Dmac on the benck as long as I also have a forth Ofer that can hit...a Juan Rivera type...

    I'm not completely sold on our catching position either dispite their ranking in OPS...I did like what I saw from Salty and Lavarnway too though he looked a little overmatched against righties with a good tight slider...defensively I don't think either are all that and as much as I love Tek...I think it's time for a breath of fresh air to blow through the entire pitching staff and wein themselves off his services...and simply start attacking hitters in the zone rather than alway trying to amke perfect pitches...defense aside for a second that's why I would like to see us go get a guy like Ryan Doumit who can catch and DH is switch hitter that hits around .300. That said OPS while a good meaure is a flawed stat in that it places to much weight on slg IMHO...I'm a very strong propont of productive at bats and base runners = scoring opportunities...Below is where the Redsox catchers ranked in all major offensive categories in MLB this year...
     21st in batting average
    24th in OBP...
    5th in Slugging %
    9th in OPS
    1st in HR
    1st in RBI
    1st in R
    1st in strikouts
    23rd in bases on balls

    So while they did hit their share of dingers, I'd like to see us put the ball in play more and strikeout less...clearly a case where they can upgrade...

    As for PapelbonI am of the mind that the closer role is somewhat over rated...I also feel strongly that Papelbon needs to go somewhere where he's forced to develop another pitch and use it. Something it apears he's been unwilling to do while toiling in Boston...So based on his failures of September, what looked to be a season in which his value on the open market was looking bright not sure that too many teams are gonna line up and shower him with moneys...No disrespect intended while he ain't MO and I'm not sure that he's all that much better than Valverde, Madson or Bell and if Soriano ops out and Krod's released by the Brewers that's 5 or 6 top guys on the market at the same time...not exactly a sellers market....

    So not unlike with Papi...I'd like to see us use the funds to aquire a guy that profiles as a 200 inning sub 4.5 era guy to bloster the back end of the rotation and hand the ball to Bard and spend the 1st half of the year evaluating if he has the goods...I like what we have in Aceves and Morales so the nucleaus is still pretty strong...The wildcard in our pen is Jenks, not unlike with Youk the teams needs to evaluate the prognosis of a return to health and when? Again in my mind the pen is an easier in season fix than the rotation...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    I don't think the RS go near Willingham. His 150 K's are an alarm bell because while Oakland can dent a players BA and OBP fast it doesn't contribute to K's.
     
    He also did not hit LH pitching as well as RH pitching and that mitigates his value as that needed RH bat to balance the RS line-up. 

    Because of the weakness in this year's FA market he is a Type A FA requiring the RS to compensate Oakland with draft picks.

    I agree about the market being deep for relievers. Whether that will drive the numbers down on Papelbon's next contract is yet to be seen. But when many of us judge Papelbon is from a very critical eye IMO. End of the day he is the best FA in that pool. KRod may be a great value but you get a guy with some serious past off field issues. After that Papelbon is the pick of the litter.

    As for the idea of spending the money on starting pitching, I think that would be by trade. There still may well be a need for budget but I really doubt once you get past the CC opting out that the answers are in this FA class:

    Starting Pitchers
    Mark Buehrle CWS
    Chris Carpenter STL *
    Bruce Chen KC
    Aaron Cook COL *
    Kyle Davies KC
    Ryan Dempster CHC *
    Justin Duchscherer OAK
    Zach Duke ARI *
    Jeff Francis KC
    Freddy Garcia NYY
    Jon Garland LAD *
    Aaron Harang SD
    Rich Harden OAK
    Livan Hernandez WAS
    Edwin Jackson CWS
    Kenshin Kawakami ATL
    Scott Kazmir LAA
    Hiroki Kuroda LAD
    Rodrigo Lopez CHC
    Paul Maholm PIT
    John Maine COL
    Jason Marquis WAS
    Kevin Millwood NYY
    Scott Olsen PIT *
    Roy Oswalt PHI *
    Brad Penny DET
    Oliver Perez NYM
    Joel Pineiro LAA
    CC Sabathia NYY (may opt out)
    Carlos Silva NYY
    Javier Vazquez FLA
    Adam Wainwright STL *
    Tim Wakefield BOS
    Chien-Ming Wang WAS
    Brandon Webb ARI
    C.J. Wilson TEX
    Chris Young NYM

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from myaim45. Show myaim45's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    neither.

    ^^ there seems to be a lot of decent free agent pitchers. Obviously teams will re-sign players but FA pitching looks to be pretty decent this year.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    If the Sox don't re-sign Paps and my guess is that he walks since he already said he wants to test the waters.  There are teams that will bid up his services like the Sox did with Mo and the Sox will have to ante up or watch him walk.  He is a proven closer who year after year has been 2nd only to Mo in durability and production.  He is not a 1-year wonder.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    Moon,

    My take on Papi is that i'd be fine with resigning him as long as it doesn't prevent us from aquiring a RH OF bat (Willingham/Cuddyer type or aquire a like talant in a deal using Reddick & Anderson as the chips). Again I'm a strong proponat of opening up the DH spot and I'd like the idea of letting Crawford have a go at RF that opens up the field a bit more when talking OFer.

    Bean, I always enjoy your thoughtful posts. We might not always agree, but you use logic to make your points. I don't like Crawfor'ds arm in Fenway's RF, but some of the options (like Willingham) are not great defensive choices either. I'm also worried about what happened to CC's defense this year.

    Lets also remember that Youkilis is entering the last year of his contract and frankly I have trouble envivisioning him as our everyday 3rd baseman, staying in the lineup for 600 at bats and posting what was his career norms (900 ops). So aside from the outfield and bolstering the starting rotation...To me job #1 this offseason is to assertain the prognosis of a full return to health for Youk and if they preoject him not to be fully healthy by camp or at minimum by May 1st then they'll need to look at finding our longterm 3rd baseman...Aviles can surely hold down the fort in the short term, but IMHO has hands of stone, but I like his bat and athleticism...On a side note: this spring I'd like to see if Middlebrook's who's just turned 23 (our #1 prospect) has the tools to be an above average defender and hit 20 homers and bat 280-330-425-775ish, bascially Mike Lowell without the gold glove...

    Youk has a team option ($13M with $1M buyout) for 2013, so he could be here for 2 years. I'm not sure Youk can ever be relied upon to be healthy. I doubt any doctor can tell us what the chances are. Youk's OPS went up every year of his career, until a big drop last year. (.975>.833). I think if he is healthy next year, he will be about at .900-.925 and maybe .875-.900 for 2013. To improve his odds of staying healthy, he should play 1B or DH. To me, that means trade him or let Papi walk to get the most out of Youk.

    SS I'm fine with Scutaro and Aviles although I would love to see the kid Iglisias given a shot...I'm just an old school guy that likes my SS to be the best athlete on the team with gold glove skills...Scutaro is not that guy but I love everything else about his game so picking up his options seems like a no brainer...

    I'm with you on Iggy at SS. If we deal Youk, having Scutty to back up SS and share 3b with Aviles and Lowrie is not a bad option.

    This might go against what is the expected norms but IMHO the Sox need to use this offseason to retool the bench and lengthen the lineup...

    I'd start with cutting Lowrie, sorry but I see him as fools gold, I get that he could be a great utility guy but the problem is he just can't stay healthy and I see it as a waste to continue to hope this kid can stay on the field and his glove is marginal at best...I'd much prefer we had a guy that could play both corner infield spots like an Eric Hinke type or even Connor Jackson guys with a little pop and a veteren presense...I don't mind having say a Dmac on the benck as long as I also have a forth Ofer that can hit...a Juan Rivera type...

    We aren't "cutting" Lowrie. Trade maybe.

    I'm not completely sold on our catching position either dispite their ranking in OPS...I did like what I saw from Salty and Lavarnway too though he looked a little overmatched against righties with a good tight slider...defensively I don't think either are all that and as much as I love Tek...I think it's time for a breath of fresh air to blow through the entire pitching staff and wein themselves off his services...and simply start attacking hitters in the zone rather than alway trying to amke perfect pitches...defense aside for a second that's why I would like to see us go get a guy like Ryan Doumit who can catch and DH is switch hitter that hits around .300. That said OPS while a good meaure is a flawed stat in that it places to much weight on slg IMHO...I'm a very strong propont of productive at bats and base runners = scoring opportunities...Below is where the Redsox catchers ranked in all major offensive categories in MLB this year...
     21st in batting average
    24th in OBP...
    5th in Slugging %
    9th in OPS
    1st in HR
    1st in RBI
    1st in R
    1st in strikouts
    23rd in bases on balls

    So while they did hit their share of dingers, I'd like to see us put the ball in play more and strikeout less...clearly a case where they can upgrade...

    Doumit has never had a season of over 465 PAs, and has only 2 seasons with over 279 PAs in his 7 year career. He's not a great fielder, but can play C and OF. His career OBP of .334 is not great, but is good for a catcher. I just don't see us spending limited resources on the catching position when we have Lava in the wings.


    As for PapelbonI am of the mind that the closer role is somewhat over rated...I also feel strongly that Papelbon needs to go somewhere where he's forced to develop another pitch and use it. Something it apears he's been unwilling to do while toiling in Boston...So based on his failures of September, what looked to be a season in which his value on the open market was looking bright not sure that too many teams are gonna line up and shower him with moneys...No disrespect intended while he ain't MO and I'm not sure that he's all that much better than Valverde, Madson or Bell and if Soriano ops out and Krod's released by the Brewers that's 5 or 6 top guys on the market at the same time...not exactly a sellers market....

    So not unlike with Papi...I'd like to see us use the funds to aquire a guy that profiles as a 200 inning sub 4.5 era guy to bloster the back end of the rotation and hand the ball to Bard and spend the 1st half of the year evaluating if he has the goods...I like what we have in Aceves and Morales so the nucleaus is still pretty strong...The wildcard in our pen is Jenks, not unlike with Youk the teams needs to evaluate the prognosis of a return to health and when? Again in my mind the pen is an easier in season fix than the rotation...

    Yes, but it is also easy to guess wrong on the pen.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    In Response to Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...:
    [QUOTE]Teams haven't forked over $30+M for 3 years of a DH-only type player in a long long time. Now, it is a certainty that Papi blows away all the other DH-only type players in his recent performance. Theo will set a price for bot Papi and Paps, and he won't budge. He'll take the draft picks if someone offers more, and use the money elsewhere and build the farm at the same time.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Ya mean like when he didn't budge with Crawford?
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: If you had to choose between Papi and Paps...

    No, I mean with his own players. He makes them an offer and pretty much never goes up in a counter-offer.
     

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