Re: IGGY has been sent down to AAA... Dad & Bill-806 will be off the board for TWO DAYS in....
posted at 3/29/2012 9:02 AM EDT
You're assuming a couple of things here
1) The Pitching is roughly the same
Actually, I assumed it would be slightly better as the loss and replacement of Weiland, lackey, Wake, Miller and others outweighs the loss of Papelbon.
2) To get the BA down 12-18 points over a season, Iggy would have to make plays on about 60-90 balls that Scutaro/Lowrie would not get to (plus the # of balls that they would get to that Iggy wouldn't; yes that happens too, which I'm sure you're aware of; the analogy would be a D student getting a test question right while an A student gets it wrong).
I've already shown that some SSs make over 100 plays in a season over others in the same amount of innings on the field. I even showed SSs on the same team in the same year if pro-rated to a full season can show a 100 play disparity. It is possible, but yes, I am assuming Iggy is that good and Aviles is below average in range.
Also, Iggy's arm is much better than Scutaro/Lowrie and better than Aviles' as well. He can cause more opps outs and prevent some base advancements as well (which won't show up in opp's BA).
That's a tremendous amount. I doubt Ozzie Smith or Mark Belanger could have made that difference up vs Lugo (or, in your case, Jeter).
Lugo had good range when healthy, but vs Jeter, I'd say Ozzie makes 120-150 more plays (opps outs) over 160 games.
I ask the doubters to do just one thing this year: watch how many times our players get robbed of a yhit by an opposing great-ranged SS. Make a mental note that "Aviles would not have gotten to that one" and you'll notice it happens about once a game or two vs great defensive SSs. That's about 80-100 over a full season. (Remember, don't count the games we play against average of sub par fielding SSs.)
I remember watching Miguel Tejada make abour 2-3 plays a game that our SS at the time could never have made when he was in Oakland.