Re: Iggy's bat
posted at 6/12/2013 5:48 AM EDT
A huge element to his numbers is still his INCREDIBLE luck so far[BABIP of .523]. How lucky is .523? Second best is Ozuna at just .416. Last night Iglesias had a bloop fall in the triangle area and a 3 hopper between the SS and 3rd basemen went through. How often does this happen for him?
However, since he has come up his second time, he actually looks like a proffesional hitter to me. He seems different. He is being patient and hitting the ball harder then ever. His line drive percentages are up. He has finally sold me on being a competent hitting SS.
His OPS and batting averages are largely meaningless because of the lucky BABIP. The two things that have finally given me hope then? His ISO power numbers and his pitches per AB numbers. These numbers have a lot less to do with luck.
His ISO is .128. In spring training it was .146. And in AAA it was .118. Dude has 6 homers if you combine the numbers and the weather hasn't even warmed up yet. He looks bigger then ever. His legs looked huge to me the other day when walking into the dug out. If indeed he is really 23[still have my doubts], I expect him to have an ISO of .130+. And .160+ is possible because of Fenway and more development.
Also, because of this increased power, his average should be projected higher because of a better ability to drive the ball off the monster. Maybe add an additional .010 of average atleast.
As for his ISO discipline, I expected a .045. Because of the pitch taking[3.98] and simply the way he looks hitting the last two weeks and pitchers somewhat less willing to grove fastballs because of the increased power, I think .055 is reasonable.
In the off season, I would have expected a career line of....
Those would be conservative career projections. If he gets to the .160 ISo, he could average a .760 OPS. Some years better, some worse. That'll do.
One interesting negative is that this added size and power has probably decreased his range some. I think his defense is somewhat over rated. But thats another story, this is about Iggy's bat. I believe his bat would have been unacceptable at a .640 OPS. However, he would be a very good SS at .710.