Iglesias and his bat...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Iglesias and his bat...

     

     

    I saw an article on BDC about a deeper look inside Iglesias’ hitting.  Really, it was more some cute trivia than an actual look at how Iglesias is as a hitter.  So I took it upon myself to dig deeper into the numbers of Jose Iglesias.

     

    Is he really this good? Will this continue? How good should he really be? These are questions we all want answered. And that is where I come in.

     

    The answer to the first two is a resounding “No.”  Iglesias is this year’s Ciriaco when it comes to luck.  And in fact, he is even luckier than Ciriaco, who at least built his ridiculous BABIP on a 30% line drive rate, which, while unsupportable long term, at least provides an ample amount of hits.  Iglesias, on the other hand, is sporting an insane .486 BABIP with a line drive rate about half of what Ciriaco provided.

     

    Iglesias hitting profile through Sunday lends him to being a ground ball hitter (57%).  And while he has some speed to help out, he is hitting .488 when he hits the ball on the ground.  He is not that fast.  No one is that fast.  Usain Bolt could not keep that up.  Based on speed alone, light itself would struggle to maintain that BABIP. 

     

    Fenway certainly helps players with the flyball as well, as the occasional routine fly scrapes some green on the way down.  But flyballs are generally the easiest balls to field, and Iglesias is hitting .263 when he hits a fly ball that stays in the park.  Given his modest home run total, he is not likely to bang many off walls around the league, either. A .263 BABIP on flyballs is actually even luckier than the .488 BABIP on ground balls.

     

    And those ground ball numbers, by the way,  do not even count his 3 bunt singles.  In 3 tries!! Is there any aspect of hitting a ball where Iglesias is showing even moderately human outcomes?

     

    Line drives are where hitters build their averages, as an insane amount find the ground.  Iglesias .833 BABIP on line drives is not as crazy as it looks at first glance, and unlike the other two numbers, is actually a fairly common output.  Heck, it’s probably not even the highest on the team, let alone in a stratosphere that required ludicrous exaggerations to make a point.

     

    In fact, given what Iglesias has done to date, his .438BA through Sunday should really be a .271BA supported by a .284BABIP.  That BA does assume he remains the perfect bunter.   The only way he could maintain his production would involve a serious change to his hitting.  For example, if he stopped hitting ground balls 57% of the time, and instead hit line drives 57% of the time.  And instead of hitting line drives 16% of the time, he hit flyballs 16% of the time.  If he could pull that off, his BABIP with normal luck would be .491, or right about where he is now.   And then his production would continue.

    He would also be the line-drivingest hitter in MLB history.  Ciriaco times two.

     

    Not happening. 

     

    Of course, if he hits .271 (with a .324OBP) to me, that is more than enough to make him the starting shortstop, especially since he was never signed for his hitting.  That is all bonus, baby.  The only issue is that Drew has proven to be a better offensive player than Middlebrooks, but that is a discussion for another deep, in-depth analysis.

     

    And anyway, THAT is a deeper look into Iglesias’ stats…

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dustcover. Show dustcover's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    In response to notin's comment:

     

     

    I saw an article on BDC about a deeper look inside Iglesias’ hitting.  Really, it was more some cute trivia than an actual look at how Iglesias is as a hitter.  So I took it upon myself to dig deeper into the numbers of Jose Iglesias.

     

    Is he really this good? Will this continue? How good should he really be? These are questions we all want answered. And that is where I come in.

     

    The answer to the first two is a resounding “No.”  Iglesias is this year’s Ciriaco when it comes to luck.  And in fact, he is even luckier than Ciriaco, who at least built his ridiculous BABIP on a 30% line drive rate, which, while unsupportable long term, at least provides an ample amount of hits.  Iglesias, on the other hand, is sporting an insane .486 BABIP with a line drive rate about half of what Ciriaco provided.

     

    Iglesias hitting profile through Sunday lends him to being a ground ball hitter (57%).  And while he has some speed to help out, he is hitting .488 when he hits the ball on the ground.  He is not that fast.  No one is that fast.  Usain Bolt could not keep that up.  Based on speed alone, light itself would struggle to maintain that BABIP. 

     

    Fenway certainly helps players with the flyball as well, as the occasional routine fly scrapes some green on the way down.  But flyballs are generally the easiest balls to field, and Iglesias is hitting .263 when he hits a fly ball that stays in the park.  Given his modest home run total, he is not likely to bang many off walls around the league, either. A .263 BABIP on flyballs is actually even luckier than the .488 BABIP on ground balls.

     

    And those ground ball numbers, by the way,  do not even count his 3 bunt singles.  In 3 tries!! Is there any aspect of hitting a ball where Iglesias is showing even moderately human outcomes?

     

    Line drives are where hitters build their averages, as an insane amount find the ground.  Iglesias .833 BABIP on line drives is not as crazy as it looks at first glance, and unlike the other two numbers, is actually a fairly common output.  Heck, it’s probably not even the highest on the team, let alone in a stratosphere that required ludicrous exaggerations to make a point.

     

    In fact, given what Iglesias has done to date, his .438BA through Sunday should really be a .271BA supported by a .284BABIP.  That BA does assume he remains the perfect bunter.   The only way he could maintain his production would involve a serious change to his hitting.  For example, if he stopped hitting ground balls 57% of the time, and instead hit line drives 57% of the time.  And instead of hitting line drives 16% of the time, he hit flyballs 16% of the time.  If he could pull that off, his BABIP with normal luck would be .491, or right about where he is now.   And then his production would continue.

    He would also be the line-drivingest hitter in MLB history.  Ciriaco times two.

     

    Not happening. 

     

    Of course, if he hits .271 (with a .324OBP) to me, that is more than enough to make him the starting shortstop, especially since he was never signed for his hitting.  That is all bonus, baby.  The only issue is that Drew has proven to be a better offensive player than Middlebrooks, but that is a discussion for another deep, in-depth analysis.

     

    And anyway, THAT is a deeper look into Iglesias’ stats…




    I can't argue with your stats, BUT I still believe he is going to be an extraordinary SS for years to come.  I just believe in this kid.  I guess will just have to take a 'wait 'n see' posture.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    FWIW Iglesias' LD % has doubled since his first stint this season.

    I don't know if any other player (that I can think of at least). Has ever had a season like Iglesias is having.  He was horrible the first couple weeks of this season.  His LD% was 9% and his GB% was 67%.  And he didn't walk once.

    Iglesias was the perfect example (if there everwas one) of how to use BABIP in baseball.  Coincidently Iglesias has shown very drastic improvments at the plate.  He takes more pitches, he's making better contact, and he's shown more power.  As you have pointed out his numbers are unsustainable even if he drastically improved his output.  

    So we are actually seeing a huge improvment in Iglesias offensive abilities yet we continue to witness the unprecedented luck at the plate.

    We can all appreciate the season Iglesias is having, but others can also appreciate the type of season he is having as well.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    Nice post, notin.

    If Iggy gets 3oo more PAs, what do you think he ends up at by year's end?

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    Iggy could go 0-200 and still have a higher average than last year.  

    I don't see Iglesias dropping below .250. He's so far ahead plus his improved approach at the plate I just don't see him dipping below the quarter line.  If he's that bad by years end that he is at risk of dipping ino the low .200's or lower then Iglesias won't even be here to get those at bats. 

    I think if he continues to make strides at the plate that he has a chance to maintain that .300 level. But if we're taking bets I'd put my money on .285

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...


    Moon : I say .350......he continues channeling Rod Carew.

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    I think he can learn over time to be a better line drive hitter, but until then i'll take the hustling out infield hits, bunts and soft bloopers that happen to find grass. Eventually, i think he'll learn how to square up some pitches. just like he's learned to be more patient at the plate this year.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    Here's the thing with Iggy. If he plays say 80 games the rest of the season and gets about 267 at-bats. He could bat around .225 the rest of the year (61-for-267) and still end up batting about .280. So it will be interesting to see how it ends.

    If he ends the year batting below .280, then I'd be real concerned because that means he had a large stretch of batting below .225.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    He is lucky, and his luck will change.  However, there can be no question his approach at the plate has improved.  His bat should not force the Sox to take him out of the lineup--and by that I mean after his average gets back to normal, like .250.  And it could be higher because he could continue to improve even while his luck turns bad. 

    When the Sox let Ciriaco go, they were also saying Iglesias is here to stay. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    I think most on here (I remain optimistic on all your baseball souls) can acknowledge that Iggy is both lucky and improving at the same time.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    In response to notin's comment:

     

     

    I saw an article on BDC about a deeper look inside Iglesias’ hitting.  Really, it was more some cute trivia than an actual look at how Iglesias is as a hitter.  So I took it upon myself to dig deeper into the numbers of Jose Iglesias.

     

    Is he really this good? Will this continue? How good should he really be? These are questions we all want answered. And that is where I come in.

     

    The answer to the first two is a resounding “No.”  Iglesias is this year’s Ciriaco when it comes to luck.  And in fact, he is even luckier than Ciriaco, who at least built his ridiculous BABIP on a 30% line drive rate, which, while unsupportable long term, at least provides an ample amount of hits.  Iglesias, on the other hand, is sporting an insane .486 BABIP with a line drive rate about half of what Ciriaco provided.

     

    Iglesias hitting profile through Sunday lends him to being a ground ball hitter (57%).  And while he has some speed to help out, he is hitting .488 when he hits the ball on the ground.  He is not that fast.  No one is that fast.  Usain Bolt could not keep that up.  Based on speed alone, light itself would struggle to maintain that BABIP

     

    Fenway certainly helps players with the flyball as well, as the occasional routine fly scrapes some green on the way down.  But flyballs are generally the easiest balls to field, and Iglesias is hitting .263 when he hits a fly ball that stays in the park.  Given his modest home run total, he is not likely to bang many off walls around the league, either. A .263 BABIP on flyballs is actually even luckier than the .488 BABIP on ground balls.

     

    And those ground ball numbers, by the way,  do not even count his 3 bunt singles.  In 3 tries!! Is there any aspect of hitting a ball where Iglesias is showing even moderately human outcomes?

     

    Line drives are where hitters build their averages, as an insane amount find the ground.  Iglesias .833 BABIP on line drives is not as crazy as it looks at first glance, and unlike the other two numbers, is actually a fairly common output.  Heck, it’s probably not even the highest on the team, let alone in a stratosphere that required ludicrous exaggerations to make a point.

     

    In fact, given what Iglesias has done to date, his .438BA through Sunday should really be a .271BA supported by a .284BABIP.  That BA does assume he remains the perfect bunter.   The only way he could maintain his production would involve a serious change to his hitting.  For example, if he stopped hitting ground balls 57% of the time, and instead hit line drives 57% of the time.  And instead of hitting line drives 16% of the time, he hit flyballs 16% of the time.  If he could pull that off, his BABIP with normal luck would be .491, or right about where he is now.   And then his production would continue.

    He would also be the line-drivingest hitter in MLB history.  Ciriaco times two.

     

    Not happening. 

     

    Of course, if he hits .271 (with a .324OBP) to me, that is more than enough to make him the starting shortstop, especially since he was never signed for his hitting.  That is all bonus, baby.  The only issue is that Drew has proven to be a better offensive player than Middlebrooks, but that is a discussion for another deep, in-depth analysis.

     

    And anyway, THAT is a deeper look into Iglesias’ stats…


     
    Light would quickly move the game into a different era.  To say the least.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

     Peter Gammons made an excellent point last night when talking about how quickly Iggy gets out of the box.  While he doesn't appear to have blinding speed his raw foot speed is above average plus he has two things going for him. 

    First, he has great reflexes (have you seen him play 3B lately?) which help him out of the box, and he accelerates quickly.  He's at full speed almost immediately. Those two things will get you a lot of IF hits.  That tells me that while his current BAPIP on IF hits may not be sustainable, but Iggy's are going to be better than most people's.

    Does anyone do elapsed time between when a batter makes contact with the ball and when the runner reaches 1st?  my eyeballs tell me he's quicker to 1st than most but I'm wondering if there's any data to back it up. 

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    Iggy is certainly lucky, no question. But Ive also argued how much better he looks at the plate, and has started to hit the ball better. He has a better LD% and has made more solid contact. He takes more pitches and looks nothing loike the overmatched, skinny kid we saw last year.

    If Iggy could maintain a .260BA and a .320OBP, which I believe he can and will do, He should have a very good MLB career.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    The conclusion I came to was that he is both insanely lucky and better than we expected.  If he does ultimately become a .270 hitter, that is waaaaay beyond what even his most ardent supporters pipe dreamed about.

     

    As for his speed down the line, with no numbers to support it, I think it is usually left-handed hitters who have that advantage.  Some righties do explode out of the box, with Drew Stubbs probably being at the forefront of that list.  Odd for Stubbs to do it as well as he does, as he frequently coils himself into knots with that all-out swing...

     

     

    “Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”

    -Shel Silverstein

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jackbu. Show jackbu's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    In response to S5's comment:

     Peter Gammons made an excellent point last night when talking about how quickly Iggy gets out of the box.  While he doesn't appear to have blinding speed his raw foot speed is above average plus he has two things going for him. 

    First, he has great reflexes (have you seen him play 3B lately?) which help him out of the box, and he accelerates quickly.  He's at full speed almost immediately. Those two things will get you a lot of IF hits.  That tells me that while his current BAPIP on IF hits may not be sustainable, but Iggy's are going to be better than most people's.

    Does anyone do elapsed time between when a batter makes contact with the ball and when the runner reaches 1st?  my eyeballs tell me he's quicker to 1st than most but I'm wondering if there's any data to back it up. 

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.




    Good post and I heard Gammons say this.  One of the reasons why Iggy gets there quickly is that he keeps his head down rather than looking at where the ball is. Unlike Dustin, you will never see Iggy slide to first.   Watching where the ball is or watching the reaction of the first basemen, is just going to slow the runner down.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    Most of his hits seem to be bloops and grounders to the left side of the infield. He has shown occassional power to left. One thing that he has is a great jump out of the battersbox when he doesn't throw the bat under his own feet! How his season ends is of no importance offensively as hehas already proven he is a better hitter than Drew or Middlebrooks up until now. His glove work makes both of those guys look like they were just selected to their first little league all-star team as Iggy is lightyears ahead of the pair of them combined,oh and for the stat geeks who are going to argue that Drew according to this stat or that stat is better, your arguement is entirely based upon balls he can actually get to, and not the ones that Iggy can get to which from what I've seen is antirely different area code in comparison. The play he made in last nights game I don't think Middlebrooks gets to it, though I think Will is a talented third baseman, I don't think on an everyday basis he would beat Iggy's glove out.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    If nothing else, this kid has earned full time playing time at this time of the season with neither Middlebrooks and Drew hitting above .230.

    Everyone knows that Iglesias will not hit .400, .350 or maybe not even .300 with full time duty, but after what he showed last year with the bat in Boston he should be in the lineup every day.  His glove alone at SS can be carried even if he hits .250 as was mentioned all winter long.

    If someone has to sit out (because you can only play two of the three to start any game) one of the "sitters" needs to be either Drew or Middlebrooks at this time. 

    On another (but related) note, I think that it time for Drew to get some ground balls at third base, second base and maybe even first base.  It would help the team this year and would really help him continue his major league career.  Unless this guy can get his average up to .300 by the end of the season, and as a Sox fan I hope he does, there will be no team willing to give him anywhere near the $9M/year he is making now.  With his less than .250 batting average he has "utility man" written all over him.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Who among the board brain trust still calls him "lucky"?



    If you look at his stats he is extremely lucky.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    In response to charliedarling's comment:

    If nothing else, this kid has earned full time playing time at this time of the season with neither Middlebrooks and Drew hitting above .230.

    Everyone knows that Iglesias will not hit .400, .350 or maybe not even .300 with full time duty, but after what he showed last year with the bat in Boston he should be in the lineup every day.  His glove alone at SS can be carried even if he hits .250 as was mentioned all winter long.

    If someone has to sit out (because you can only play two of the three to start any game) one of the "sitters" needs to be either Drew or Middlebrooks at this time. 

    On another (but related) note, I think that it time for Drew to get some ground balls at third base, second base and maybe even first base.  It would help the team this year and would really help him continue his major league career.  Unless this guy can get his average up to .300 by the end of the season, and as a Sox fan I hope he does, there will be no team willing to give him anywhere near the $9M/year he is making now.  With his less than .250 batting average he has "utility man" written all over him.



    He is still one of the top performers at SS in the league. He may not be receiving a qualifying offer but some one will give him a multiyear deal in the off season.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    I don't think I've ever seen someone get so many hits on fielded ground balls.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    Ted Williams was the last of the .400 hitters. No one expects Iglesias to continue to hit like that.  However , it is a pleasure to watch him play , both at bat and in the field. A little luck, hustle and a lot of talent goes a long way.   As for BABIP , it is just one more metric that one can play around with. One thing for sure; you cannot get a hit if you DON'T put the ball in play. And we have seen enough of that.

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...

    I think a large part of Iglesias's success is that pitchers feel like they are entitled to an out when he steps in the box.  There was a game against Texas where Derek Holland started nibbling on Iglesias, and Ron Washington was furious with him.  Iglesias isn't a bad hitter - if he gets a ball in the zone, he can hit it.  Hitting is hand-eye co-ordination, and obviously Iglesias has that in spades, or he wouldn't be the defensive wizard he is.  

    But in the minors, he was treated like any other hitter.  Soon MLB pitchers are going to realize that Iglesias is not a cupcake at the plate, but he can be fooled into swinging at bad pitches.  I think he can be successful at the major-league level, but he probably needs more time.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: Iglesias and his bat...



    He's been more selective with pitches, which has resulted in more walks. Also, his bunting has seemed to improve. If that can be implemented into his game, with what he brings defensively, should be enough to keep him in the line up and build around, with "hitters"



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