I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    Does anyone here like the thought of Justin Ruggiano to play CF? RHH. lifetime .834OPS vs LHP. Has shown solid numbers in a platoon role. We dont have to move Vic of his position. Plays good D in all OF positions, with CF being his primary. Is affordable for the next couple years (slated to make 1.8M this year in arb). Hes 31, and is a solid option IMHO...Thoughts?

     
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    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    My biggest concern by far is CF:  JBJ is far from a sure thing in 2014, or ever really.   SS worries me slightly, particularly as we have no one that can play the position should Bogaerts not pan out (unlikely, IMO) or get injured.  And 3B is a concern too:  which Midds is going to show up?

    This is the defending champions, not some small-market team....3 unproven youngsters in key positions......



    +1

    Last year Ben pretty much struck gold on all his moves, lightning usually doesn't strike the same place twice 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from MustangBri. Show MustangBri's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    There continues to be threads for moves the Sox should make, some big and some small, but as far as I'm concerned, Cherington should just call in an offseason. OK, fine if you want to stockpile a few more bullpen arms, but that's it.

    There are too many who have the attitude of the grass is greener, which leads to threads for the Sox trading all their top prospects for someone else's players.

    But there is no need to to pull off a blockbuster. Bradley and Bogaerts, who after what they've done, are just the sort of players we'd be demanding the Sox go get. When a small-market team has success, it's because they give those type of young players the chance.

    The Sox haven't developed a power hitter in a while and have Will Middlebrooks who has showed he could be that RH power hitter. So now is not the time to give up on any of this young talent.

    The Sox have six veteran starters and young starters nearly ready. But you can never have enough pitching.

    The Nava/Gomes LF situation with Carp as the other OF/1B worked fine last year. If the Sox could find a LF with power, LF would be the one position I'd look for in a trade for one of the starters, but I wouldn't empty the farm system for that player either.

    So as far as I'm concerned, the Sox should be set -- mostly set. I'm not against finding a utility IF to help out the left side of the infield to help take some of the pressure off and another OF who can help out in CF. (Although Nava to RF and Victorino to CF on occasion would be fine).

    As far as the extra pitching, go to spring training with all six starters plus Workman and the others is fine. Let's see what develops in the spring. If an injury occurs, it gives the Sox more flexibility to make trades.

    So Ben -- go take a vacation and we'll see you in February.

     



    I heard Edes yesterday saying Drew may be out of the picture.  If this is true and you get your wish I doubt we do any better than possibly fighting for a wild card slot next season or not making the playoffs at all. 

    #1 We no longer have a true leadoff hitter except Victorinio.  Shane will probably miss time again next season forcing Nava or another into the role.  None of these guys will replace the 194 runs Shane and Jacoby gave us last season.  In my opinion we will score less runs PERIOD.

    #2 JBJ - Ditto, you can pray/hope or whatever you like but can't expect he will make up for the loss of Jacoby in his first season and will probably have his share of woes defensively until he fully settles in.

    #3 Middy, he needs to mature or get traded.  Even if we get 30HR's he needs to increase his OBP and walk more next season.  If not, he will once again hurt the lineup.

    #4 Bogy, the one rookie I don't mind starting since Pede and Ells.  My concern is SS where he is average at best.

    #5 We lose solid depth without Drew or Jacoby

    #6 We still need another solid RH bat to help with lefties.  Cuddyer, Lake and Davis were all possibilities but so far nothing has been done.

    #7 If Papi, Pede or Victorino spend significant time on the DL?  No real depth offensively spells no PS in 2014.

    Lastly, I know you can never really have enough pitching but we go a step further than deep in the majors and minors.  We also have a surplus of good prospects who play (like positions) and may never find a position in Boston.  If any team in baseball could pull off a real trade without killing our overall talent moving forward the Sox can.  Why suffer for the next year or two if these youngsters don't mature quickly?  Why is this FO so reluctant to pull off a (Wil Myers) type trade?

     

     



    Very, very well said.  I 100% agree with every one of your 7+ points. 

    This team is too thin...  and with all the blocked prospects we have in the ML I think something big should be considered also.  My one untouchable prospect is without a doubt Xander Bogaerts.  Outside of him,  empty the farm for a big gun if possible to stretch the lineup.

    If its true that Philly is putting Hamels/Lee out there watch how fast the Yanks swoop down on one of them,  then secure a closer like Balfour and they will definitely be better than the Sox.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    There continues to be threads for moves the Sox should make, some big and some small, but as far as I'm concerned, Cherington should just call in an offseason. OK, fine if you want to stockpile a few more bullpen arms, but that's it.

    There are too many who have the attitude of the grass is greener, which leads to threads for the Sox trading all their top prospects for someone else's players.

    But there is no need to to pull off a blockbuster. Bradley and Bogaerts, who after what they've done, are just the sort of players we'd be demanding the Sox go get. When a small-market team has success, it's because they give those type of young players the chance.

    The Sox haven't developed a power hitter in a while and have Will Middlebrooks who has showed he could be that RH power hitter. So now is not the time to give up on any of this young talent.

    The Sox have six veteran starters and young starters nearly ready. But you can never have enough pitching.

    The Nava/Gomes LF situation with Carp as the other OF/1B worked fine last year. If the Sox could find a LF with power, LF would be the one position I'd look for in a trade for one of the starters, but I wouldn't empty the farm system for that player either.

    So as far as I'm concerned, the Sox should be set -- mostly set. I'm not against finding a utility IF to help out the left side of the infield to help take some of the pressure off and another OF who can help out in CF. (Although Nava to RF and Victorino to CF on occasion would be fine).

    As far as the extra pitching, go to spring training with all six starters plus Workman and the others is fine. Let's see what develops in the spring. If an injury occurs, it gives the Sox more flexibility to make trades.

    So Ben -- go take a vacation and we'll see you in February.

     



    I heard Edes yesterday saying Drew may be out of the picture.  If this is true and you get your wish I doubt we do any better than possibly fighting for a wild card slot next season or not making the playoffs at all. 

    #1 We no longer have a true leadoff hitter except Victorinio.  Shane will probably miss time again next season forcing Nava or another into the role.  None of these guys will replace the 194 runs Shane and Jacoby gave us last season.  In my opinion we will score less runs PERIOD.

    #2 JBJ - Ditto, you can pray/hope or whatever you like but can't expect he will make up for the loss of Jacoby in his first season and will probably have his share of woes defensively until he fully settles in.

    #3 Middy, he needs to mature or get traded.  Even if we get 30HR's he needs to increase his OBP and walk more next season.  If not, he will once again hurt the lineup.

    #4 Bogy, the one rookie I don't mind starting since Pede and Ells.  My concern is SS where he is average at best.

    #5 We lose solid depth without Drew or Jacoby

    #6 We still need another solid RH bat to help with lefties.  Cuddyer, Lake and Davis were all possibilities but so far nothing has been done.

    #7 If Papi, Pede or Victorino spend significant time on the DL?  No real depth offensively spells no PS in 2014.

    Lastly, I know you can never really have enough pitching but we go a step further than deep in the majors and minors.  We also have a surplus of good prospects who play (like positions) and may never find a position in Boston.  If any team in baseball could pull off a real trade without killing our overall talent moving forward the Sox can.  Why suffer for the next year or two if these youngsters don't mature quickly?  Why is this FO so reluctant to pull off a (Wil Myers) type trade?

     

     



    The only real loss was CF. How have the Sox really lost that much depth? If they trade for a CFer in terms of depth it is the same.



    We have a 21 year old SS with a .943 fielding percentage and nothing behind him as of yet including Holt or any other minor leaguer for quality backup. 

    JBJ has Victorino but our entire OF has very little power and average (at best) defense other than Shane.  Again, nobody on the farm or in any rumors that has changed this.  JBJ will be a good defender but won't live up to Ellsbury Stats offensively or defensively this season.  You can't lose Drew and Jacoby, throw Middy back at 3B, jump on a bandwagon of JBJ and Bogy and expect us not to lose a beat.

    That's insanity, we need more quality depth! 

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    My biggest concern by far is CF:  JBJ is far from a sure thing in 2014, or ever really.   SS worries me slightly, particularly as we have no one that can play the position should Bogaerts not pan out (unlikely, IMO) or get injured.  And 3B is a concern too:  which Midds is going to show up?

    This is the defending champions, not some small-market team....3 unproven youngsters in key positions......




    Why are people SOOO down on JBJ???

    Last year was only his second full season of professional baseball, starting in the majors with only ONE!!! full season of minor league ball is almost unheard of.  I'm pretty confident that if you took any top player in the game today and put them into the majors a few years earlier they would have struggled just as much.

    in 2012 JBJ spent more time in A than in AA.  He was rushed to the majors.

    Most would have said that Pawtucket would have been an aggressive assignment for him.  Still he put up a .275/.374/.469 line with a .842 OPS during an aggressive assignment in Pawtucket.  

    To put things into perspective if JBJ had started the year in Pawtucket instead of Boston and put up those numbers most scouts and talent evaluaters would have been very impressed given his experience....but because a kid gets rushed, gets a short look, and struggles, all of a sudden everyone is down on him.

    To put things even further into perspective think of it like this; JBJ was ranked 31st in all of baseball by baseball america PRE 2013.

    Then, even with his early season fumbles in Boston he jumped up the list to #21 in BA's mid season top 50.

    Scouts were actually MORE impressed with him this year, because realitively speaking he made huge strides at advanced levels of the majors, moving up the ladder at a fast pace.

    The kid is still young, and has showed a LOT of progress every year and the ability to make adjustments.

    if you want to argue that he is not 100% ready that is fine, but I would bet large sums of money his stats in Boston will be nowhere as bad as they were this year. We should expect to see some upward mobility in his production.  

    I would also be willing to bet that JBJ will put up a similar line of .275/.374/.469 in a full season in 2014, perhaps not as good as that but I think he will be closer to those numbers than his numbers in Boston in 2013.  All of this wrapped up in a defensive package that should be an upgrade over Ellsbury.

    .......I'm not worried about JBJ at all, as a matter of fact I'm looking forward to it. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    Your current roster is as follows

    Pitching(12)

    Starters

    Lester

    Lackey

    Buch

    Peavy

    dubront

     

    Releavers

    Koji

    Tazawa

    Badenhop

    britton

    breslow

    miller

    mujica

     

    fielders(9)

    C AJ

    1B Napoli

    2B Pedroia

    SS Bogaerts

    3B Middlebrooks

    LF Nava

    CF Bradley

    RF Victorino

    DH Ortiz

     

    Bench(4)

    C Ross

    OF Carp

    OF Gomes

    Uinf Holt

     

    No room

    Dempster

    Morales

    Villarreal

    Workman

    AAA

    Workman from above

    RDLR

    Ranaudo

    Webster

    Wilson

    Wright

    Cecchini

    Snyder

    Berry

    Brentz

    Castellanos

    Hassan

     

    Too many players, but yet a severe weakness in OF depth, SS/3B depth, and missing 1 bat for the middle of the order.  If the season started today who leads off? Pedroia, nava, or vctorino.  I like none of those choices.  Pedroia needs to hit 2or 3.  Victorino 2 or 6-8.  Nava is 5-7.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to FL33178's comment:

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    My biggest concern by far is CF:  JBJ is far from a sure thing in 2014, or ever really.   SS worries me slightly, particularly as we have no one that can play the position should Bogaerts not pan out (unlikely, IMO) or get injured.  And 3B is a concern too:  which Midds is going to show up?

    This is the defending champions, not some small-market team....3 unproven youngsters in key positions......



    +1

    Last year Ben pretty much struck gold on all his moves, lightning usually doesn't strike the same place twice 



    First, the off-season is far from over.

     

    Second, this notion that Cherrington got lucky, "lightnig struck", last year is not quite an apt description, though very exciting.  No one from the people that Cherrington picked up last year had anything remotely akin to a career year.  Everyone performed about as could be expected, if basing expectation on career numbers, trends.  The only way to see it as strking lucky gold/lightning is if one had a completely dramatic pessimistic view based on vague unempirical notions last winter:  Vic is damaged goods/done, Carp is a zero, Napoli is paraplegic.  

    He got exactly what he bought.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

    Your current roster is as follows

    Pitching(12)

    Starters

    Lester

    Lackey

    Buch

    Peavy

    dubront

     

    Releavers

    Koji

    Tazawa

    Badenhop

    britton

    breslow

    miller

    mujica

     

    fielders(9)

    C AJ

    1B Napoli

    2B Pedroia

    SS Bogaerts

    3B Middlebrooks

    LF Nava

    CF Bradley

    RF Victorino

    DH Ortiz

     

    Bench(4)

    C Ross

    OF Carp

    OF Gomes

    Uinf Holt

     

    No room

    Dempster

    Morales

    Villarreal

    Workman

    AAA

    Workman from above

    RDLR

    Ranaudo

    Webster

    Wilson

    Wright

    Cecchini

    Snyder

    Berry

    Brentz

    Castellanos

    Hassan

     

    Too many players, but yet a severe weakness in OF depth, SS/3B depth, and missing 1 bat for the middle of the order.  If the season started today who leads off? Pedroia, nava, or vctorino.  I like none of those choices.  Pedroia needs to hit 2or 3.  Victorino 2 or 6-8.  Nava is 5-7.

     



    Farrell said in an interview yesterday that Nava and Victorino will lead off to start the year and if the season started today.  He said that he would go with the guy with the best OBP for the leadoff spot next year if he doesn't have a speed guy available. 

    We have a ton of pitching right now, but a handful are sure to get hurt between now and the start of the season.  We are also not done making moves right now and BC said that he will be searching for a backup for the left side of the infield as well as CF.  I won't overreact until spring training if we have not addressed the holes... for now, it is only the second week in december and it has barely snowed yet.  Plenty of time to fill out the last two or three spots on the roster.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from FL33178. Show FL33178's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     +1

    There continues to be threads for moves the Sox should make, some big and some small, but as far as I'm concerned, Cherington should just call in an offseason. OK, fine if you want to stockpile a few more bullpen arms, but that's it.

    There are too many who have the attitude of the grass is greener, which leads to threads for the Sox trading all their top prospects for someone else's players.

    But there is no need to to pull off a blockbuster. Bradley and Bogaerts, who after what they've done, are just the sort of players we'd be demanding the Sox go get. When a small-market team has success, it's because they give those type of young players the chance.

    The Sox haven't developed a power hitter in a while and have Will Middlebrooks who has showed he could be that RH power hitter. So now is not the time to give up on any of this young talent.

    The Sox have six veteran starters and young starters nearly ready. But you can never have enough pitching.

    The Nava/Gomes LF situation with Carp as the other OF/1B worked fine last year. If the Sox could find a LF with power, LF would be the one position I'd look for in a trade for one of the starters, but I wouldn't empty the farm system for that player either.

    So as far as I'm concerned, the Sox should be set -- mostly set. I'm not against finding a utility IF to help out the left side of the infield to help take some of the pressure off and another OF who can help out in CF. (Although Nava to RF and Victorino to CF on occasion would be fine).

    As far as the extra pitching, go to spring training with all six starters plus Workman and the others is fine. Let's see what develops in the spring. If an injury occurs, it gives the Sox more flexibility to make trades.

    So Ben -- go take a vacation and we'll see you in February.

     



    I heard Edes yesterday saying Drew may be out of the picture.  If this is true and you get your wish I doubt we do any better than possibly fighting for a wild card slot next season or not making the playoffs at all. 

    #1 We no longer have a true leadoff hitter except Victorinio.  Shane will probably miss time again next season forcing Nava or another into the role.  None of these guys will replace the 194 runs Shane and Jacoby gave us last season.  In my opinion we will score less runs PERIOD.

    #2 JBJ - Ditto, you can pray/hope or whatever you like but can't expect he will make up for the loss of Jacoby in his first season and will probably have his share of woes defensively until he fully settles in.

    #3 Middy, he needs to mature or get traded.  Even if we get 30HR's he needs to increase his OBP and walk more next season.  If not, he will once again hurt the lineup.

    #4 Bogy, the one rookie I don't mind starting since Pede and Ells.  My concern is SS where he is average at best.

    #5 We lose solid depth without Drew or Jacoby

    #6 We still need another solid RH bat to help with lefties.  Cuddyer, Lake and Davis were all possibilities but so far nothing has been done.

    #7 If Papi, Pede or Victorino spend significant time on the DL?  No real depth offensively spells no PS in 2014.

    Lastly, I know you can never really have enough pitching but we go a step further than deep in the majors and minors.  We also have a surplus of good prospects who play (like positions) and may never find a position in Boston.  If any team in baseball could pull off a real trade without killing our overall talent moving forward the Sox can.  Why suffer for the next year or two if these youngsters don't mature quickly?  Why is this FO so reluctant to pull off a (Wil Myers) type trade?

     

     

     



    The only real loss was CF. How have the Sox really lost that much depth? If they trade for a CFer in terms of depth it is the same.

     



    We have a 21 year old SS with a .943 fielding percentage and nothing behind him as of yet including Holt or any other minor leaguer for quality backup. 

    JBJ has Victorino but our entire OF has very little power and average (at best) defense other than Shane.  Again, nobody on the farm or in any rumors that has changed this.  JBJ will be a good defender but won't live up to Ellsbury Stats offensively or defensively this season.  You can't lose Drew and Jacoby, throw Middy back at 3B, jump on a bandwagon of JBJ and Bogy and expect us not to lose a beat.

    That's insanity, we need more quality depth! 

     




     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from FL33178. Show FL33178's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

    Your current roster is as follows

    Pitching(12)

    Starters

    Lester

    Lackey

    Buch

    Peavy

    dubront

     

    Releavers

    Koji

    Tazawa

    Badenhop

    britton

    breslow

    miller

    mujica

     

    fielders(9)

    C AJ

    1B Napoli

    2B Pedroia

    SS Bogaerts

    3B Middlebrooks

    LF Nava

    CF Bradley

    RF Victorino

    DH Ortiz

     

    Bench(4)

    C Ross

    OF Carp

    OF Gomes

    Uinf Holt

     

    No room

    Dempster

    Morales

    Villarreal

    Workman

    AAA

    Workman from above

    RDLR

    Ranaudo

    Webster

    Wilson

    Wright

    Cecchini

    Snyder

    Berry

    Brentz

    Castellanos

    Hassan

     

    Too many players, but yet a severe weakness in OF depth, SS/3B depth, and missing 1 bat for the middle of the order.  If the season started today who leads off? Pedroia, nava, or vctorino.  I like none of those choices.  Pedroia needs to hit 2or 3.  Victorino 2 or 6-8.  Nava is 5-7.

     



    +1

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

     

    I would also be willing to bet that JBJ will put up a similar line of .275/.374/.469 in a full season in 2014, perhaps not as good as that but I think he will be closer to those numbers than his numbers in Boston in 2013.  All of this wrapped up in a defensive package that should be an upgrade over Ellsbury.

    .......I'm not worried about JBJ at all, as a matter of fact I'm looking forward to it. 

    [/QUOTE]

    OFFENSIVELY ... My prediction for JBJ at best will be 257/325/395 with maybe a.640 to .720 OPS.  Anything higher would be a plus because he hasn't shown us much of anything other than in ST against rusty/scrub pitching.  No way on earth this kid sees a .374 OBP unless he is dreaming about Pede or Papi.

    DEFENSIVELY ... He will have a few more errors than some think

     

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    My biggest concern by far is CF:  JBJ is far from a sure thing in 2014, or ever really.   SS worries me slightly, particularly as we have no one that can play the position should Bogaerts not pan out (unlikely, IMO) or get injured.  And 3B is a concern too:  which Midds is going to show up?

    This is the defending champions, not some small-market team....3 unproven youngsters in key positions......



    Remember, we played much of last year with 3 unproven youngsters in key positions:

    JBJ started the season in CF.

    Iggy played a lot at SS and then some at 3B.

    Middy played a lot at 3B.

    We also relied heavily on Workman and Britton for a stretch. And, Doubront is just a year older than some of these "youngsters". He pitched over 160 innings in 2013.

    Here's a list of ages and 2013 innings of our youngsters:

    25 Lava  164 at C

    25 Holt    160  (152 at 3B, 8 at 2B)

    24 Middy 811 (798 at 3B, 9 at 1B, 4 at 2B)

    23 Iggy   531  (279 at 3B, 240 at SS, 12 at 2B)

    23 JBJ    242  (146 in CF & 2 in RF)

    20 Bogey 110 (53 at SS, 57 at 3B plus playoff innings at 3B)

    I'm not trying to say 2014 is going to rely equally on youngsters; obviously we are going to rely more on them next year, but then again, they will be a year older and more experienced.

    We had over 2,000 innings by the youngsters in 2013. We may not see Lava or Holt in 2014, and Iggy is gone.

    If we get 1,000 innings each from Bogey, JBJ and Middy, it would just be a 50% increase over the total innings by youngsters in 2013. 

    One could argue that Middy is not a youngster anymore as he turns 26 next season and has over 620 professional games. Bogey looks to be a very mature youngster, so I'm not too worried about him wilting under the Boston spot light. JBJ seems like the only "raw talent" out there as a FT'er, although I certainly can see 2 or 3 of these guys struggling in 2014.

    This is another reason I'd like to see us get 2 more players:

    1) A veteran defensive SS. He could play late innings as a defensive replacement that would also allow Bogey some rest, so he could start more games. This wpick-up would also provide insurance against a bad season by Middy, as we could slide Bogey to 3B and start the vet at SS.

    2) A good defesnive CF'er who can hit lefties very well (like Ruggiano?). This could take some pressure of JBJ, if he struggles out of the gate. It could end up being a platoon, if JBJ struggles only against LHPs (which is more likely than struggling vs RHPs).

    I know I have suggested trading Gomes or Carp, and we almost have to if we get a CF'er, unless that CF'er can start in AAA. I have also suggested trading Dempster or Peavy to free up budget space for this winter and or next July, but there is no rush to do that.

    I'd look to trade Gomes, but I think it will be Carp (if anyone) for that CF'er or SS. Then, I'd try and trade some blocked prospects like Coyle, Butler, or maybe Alex Wilson or Steven Wright, or 2 or more of these guys for a decent back-up SS or platoon type CF'er.

    It's nothing major.

     

    On the major front, I would kick the tire on Tanaka. If we win the bidding war, we could deal Peavy and or Dempster and still be under the budget limit, while strengthening the here and now as well as our future rotation outlook. I think this kid is the real deal.

     

    That being said, I have no issues with what Ben has done so far. I'd prefer Salty at $21M/3 over AJ Pierzynski, but the one year deal has its advantages. I love the Mujica signing, and Badenhop might raise some eyebrows as well.

    Yes, losing Ellsbury will hurt badly. His speed should not be underestimated, but the guy was our 9th best OPS guy in 2013. There's no way he was worth even close to $153M. Losing Drew will hurt our SS defense, but Bogey could easily outhit what our SSs gave us in 2013.

    I know we cannot expect perfect health in 2014. We had pretty good luck with inkuries in 2013, despite the loss of Buch for much of the season, but here's a positive outlook on 2014:

    2013 Position and positional OPS/ 2014 positive (perhaps "pink glasses" outlook)

    C   .787 / AJ P had an OPS of .773 from '12 to '13 (Salty: .774) 

    1B .841 / Napoli has a 3 year trend of big years: '08 .960, '11 1.046, &'14?)

    2B .786 / Pedey will be 30 in '14. He had OPS over .860 3 times from '08-'11 

    3B .683 / '12 Middy shows up (.835), but even the '13 Middy (.696) is better.

    SS .771 / Might be hard for a rookie SS to top .771, but with Bogey ...

    LF .790 / Injuries forced the planned Nava/Gomes platoon off schedule as

                     they only started in LF 121 games. If we can stick to a true L/R

                     platoon, take a look at these 2010-2013 splits:

                                 Vs RHPs: .833 Nava

                                 Vs LHPs: .874 Gomes

    CF .774 / I doubt JBJ tops .774, but if we pick up a nice platoon CF'er maybe close.

    RF .786 / More games by Shane (.801) could raise this number.

    DH .958 / Papi may decline, but it's not a stretch to hope for a 4th straight .950+ 

    PH .923 / This will be hard to duplicate, but with Gomes or Nava & Carp...

     

    It's not likely all these good things will happen at once, but we don't need all of them to occur at once.

     

    The pitching staff looks better on paper:

    1) A full season of Buch

    2) A full season of Peavy

    3) Full seasons from Workman and Britton

    4) Full seasons from Morales and Miller

    5) Full season of Uehara as the closer

    6) No Hanrahan, Bailey or Aceves as closers and whatever

    7) Add Mujica

    8) Add Badenhop

    9) Several good prospects banging on the door:

            Webster, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Barnes, Hinojosa & maybe even Owens

     

    Again, 100% health is not going to happen, but with the depth of this team, I think we can handle injuries better than almost every other MLB team.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    There continues to be threads for moves the Sox should make, some big and some small, but as far as I'm concerned, Cherington should just call in an offseason. OK, fine if you want to stockpile a few more bullpen arms, but that's it.

    There are too many who have the attitude of the grass is greener, which leads to threads for the Sox trading all their top prospects for someone else's players.

    But there is no need to to pull off a blockbuster. Bradley and Bogaerts, who after what they've done, are just the sort of players we'd be demanding the Sox go get. When a small-market team has success, it's because they give those type of young players the chance.

    The Sox haven't developed a power hitter in a while and have Will Middlebrooks who has showed he could be that RH power hitter. So now is not the time to give up on any of this young talent.

    The Sox have six veteran starters and young starters nearly ready. But you can never have enough pitching.

    The Nava/Gomes LF situation with Carp as the other OF/1B worked fine last year. If the Sox could find a LF with power, LF would be the one position I'd look for in a trade for one of the starters, but I wouldn't empty the farm system for that player either.

    So as far as I'm concerned, the Sox should be set -- mostly set. I'm not against finding a utility IF to help out the left side of the infield to help take some of the pressure off and another OF who can help out in CF. (Although Nava to RF and Victorino to CF on occasion would be fine).

    As far as the extra pitching, go to spring training with all six starters plus Workman and the others is fine. Let's see what develops in the spring. If an injury occurs, it gives the Sox more flexibility to make trades.

    So Ben -- go take a vacation and we'll see you in February.

     



    I heard Edes yesterday saying Drew may be out of the picture.  If this is true and you get your wish I doubt we do any better than possibly fighting for a wild card slot next season or not making the playoffs at all. 

    #1 We no longer have a true leadoff hitter except Victorinio.  Shane will probably miss time again next season forcing Nava or another into the role.  None of these guys will replace the 194 runs Shane and Jacoby gave us last season.  In my opinion we will score less runs PERIOD.

    #2 JBJ - Ditto, you can pray/hope or whatever you like but can't expect he will make up for the loss of Jacoby in his first season and will probably have his share of woes defensively until he fully settles in.

    #3 Middy, he needs to mature or get traded.  Even if we get 30HR's he needs to increase his OBP and walk more next season.  If not, he will once again hurt the lineup.

    #4 Bogy, the one rookie I don't mind starting since Pede and Ells.  My concern is SS where he is average at best.

    #5 We lose solid depth without Drew or Jacoby

    #6 We still need another solid RH bat to help with lefties.  Cuddyer, Lake and Davis were all possibilities but so far nothing has been done.

    #7 If Papi, Pede or Victorino spend significant time on the DL?  No real depth offensively spells no PS in 2014.

    Lastly, I know you can never really have enough pitching but we go a step further than deep in the majors and minors.  We also have a surplus of good prospects who play (like positions) and may never find a position in Boston.  If any team in baseball could pull off a real trade without killing our overall talent moving forward the Sox can.  Why suffer for the next year or two if these youngsters don't mature quickly?  Why is this FO so reluctant to pull off a (Wil Myers) type trade?

     

     

     



    The only real loss was CF. How have the Sox really lost that much depth? If they trade for a CFer in terms of depth it is the same.

     



    We have a 21 year old SS with a .943 fielding percentage and nothing behind him as of yet including Holt or any other minor leaguer for quality backup. 

    JBJ has Victorino but our entire OF has very little power and average (at best) defense other than Shane.  Again, nobody on the farm or in any rumors that has changed this.  JBJ will be a good defender but won't live up to Ellsbury Stats offensively or defensively this season.  You can't lose Drew and Jacoby, throw Middy back at 3B, jump on a bandwagon of JBJ and Bogy and expect us not to lose a beat.

    That's insanity, we need more quality depth! 

     



    You keep saying depth. Depth doesn't mean you have the 9 best guys. It means you have a well rounded roster. Other than losing Ellsbury, the offense from a production level should be about the same. Any real back up infielder will give your more depth then the last year. Trading guys like Carp limit depth. I think you are meaning production not depth but really it is fairly similar to last year sans Ellsbury.

     
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    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    Remember what Larry Lucchino said right after the Sox won the series this year...

     

     “One of the lessons I learned a long time ago was that you can’t fall in love with your veterans. You can’t do that,” said Lucchino. “That’s not the way to run the railroad. We are not going to be a stand-pat team. That’s just not the way we run the railroad here. That’s probably a losing proposition every year. Every year has to have its own personality. Every year will have a different personality, composition as well as personality.”

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    I would also be willing to bet that JBJ will put up a similar line of .275/.374/.469 in a full season in 2014, perhaps not as good as that but I think he will be closer to those numbers than his numbers in Boston in 2013.  All of this wrapped up in a defensive package that should be an upgrade over Ellsbury.

    .......I'm not worried about JBJ at all, as a matter of fact I'm looking forward to it. 



    OFFENSIVELY ... My prediction for JBJ at best will be 257/320/400 with maybe a.640 to .720 OPS.  Anything higher would be a plus because he hasn't shown us much of anything other than in ST against rusty/scrub pitching.  No way on earth this kid sees a .374 OBP unless he is dreaming about Pede or Papi.

    DEFENSIVELY ... He will have a few more errors than some think

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    No way on earth based on what?  he walks, he is dedicated student who is focused on refining his plate approach.  This is a kid who in college would take extra batting practice, trying to induce fould balls on pitches outside and on the border....just so he can be that guy to take more pitches and work counts.

    I agree that .374 is a lot to ask of him in his first year. But I think he can do better than .320  He put up a .317 in the majors in his second half of the season, and like I said before we should expect him to still get better. 

    I think he ends up being around .330 OBP guy his first year with even higher OBP years as he matures.

     

     There's a reason why his stock shot up last year. 

     

    And why do you think he will "have more errors than some will think" based off of what? his defense is, has been, and will continue to be ready and elite and eve that he flashed last year in Boston.  

    And even if his error numbers are up, looking at total number of errors is a highly inefficient way to measure the quality of someones defense. 

     
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    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

     

    I would also be willing to bet that JBJ will put up a similar line of .275/.374/.469 in a full season in 2014, perhaps not as good as that but I think he will be closer to those numbers than his numbers in Boston in 2013.  All of this wrapped up in a defensive package that should be an upgrade over Ellsbury.

    .......I'm not worried about JBJ at all, as a matter of fact I'm looking forward to it. 

     



    OFFENSIVELY... My prediction for JBJ at best will be 257/320/400 with maybe a.640 to .720 OPS.  Anything higher would be a plus because he hasn't shown us much of anything other than in ST against rusty/scrub pitching.  No way on earth this kid sees a .374 OBP unless he is dreaming about Pede or Papi.

     

    DEFENSIVELY ... He will have a few more errors than some think

     

     



    No way on earth based on what?  he walks, he is dedicated student who is focused on refining his plate approach.  This is a kid who in college would take extra batting practice, trying to induce fould balls on pitches outside and on the border....just so he can be that guy to take more pitches and work counts.

    I agree that .374 is a lot to ask of him in his first year. But I think he can do better than .320  He put up a .317 in the majors in his second half of the season, and like I said before we should expect him to still get better. 

    I think he ends up being around .330 OBP guy his first year with even higher OBP years as he matures.

     

     There's a reason why his stock shot up last year. 

     

    And why do you think he will "have more errors than some will think" based off of what? his defense is, has been, and will continue to be ready and elite and eve that he flashed last year in Boston.  

    And even if his error numbers are up, looking at total number of errors is a highly inefficient way to measure the quality of someones defense. 



    steamer agrees with you on the OBP

    256 Avg, 336 OBP, 402 Slg

     

 
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    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I heard Edes yesterday saying Drew may be out of the picture.  If this is true and you get your wish I doubt we do any better than possibly fighting for a wild card slot next season or not making the playoffs at all. 

    #1 We no longer have a true leadoff hitter except Victorinio.  Shane will probably miss time again next season forcing Nava or another into the role.  None of these guys will replace the 194 runs Shane and Jacoby gave us last season.  In my opinion we will score less runs PERIOD.

    Leadoff might be an issue in the short term, but who's to say that Bradley won't emerge as a leadoff hitter later in the season. Beyond that, Ellsbury and Victorino didn't score runs in a vacuum. They got on base and there were guys behind them to drive them in. The Sox managed to score runs when both Victorino and Ellsbury were out of the lineup.  I'm not downplaying Ellsbury's role -- I've been a big fan of his -- but he's not irreplaceable either. The Sox just need a guy at the top with a good OBP and Nava could be that. Is OBP was better than Ellsbury's. Or Victorino with Pedroia at No. 2. Speed at the leadoff position is great, but it's also not a dealbreaker either for having a good leadoff batter.

    #2 JBJ - Ditto, you can pray/hope or whatever you like but can't expect he will make up for the loss of Jacoby in his first season and will probably have his share of woes defensively until he fully settles in.

    Why can he come in and hit the ground running? Top rookies do it all the time. Did Fred Lynn need to "settle in." I'm not saying he's Fred Lynn, but it's also too much of a blanket statement to say he can't do it. He did get experience last season. That has to count for something. I'm not saying there won't be growing pains, but so what? If there's a chance that he could be special, he needs to get the chance sometime. If he struggled in the minors last year, then maybe you could say he needs another year in the minors. But his Pawtucket numbers were solid. So give him the chance. 

    #3 Middy, he needs to mature or get traded.  Even if we get 30HR's he needs to increase his OBP and walk more next season.  If not, he will once again hurt the lineup.

    This "he needs to mature" crp any time a player struggle is always so overblown. Yes, he did struggle with the idea of being sent back down, but he already showed he matured since then. This isn't June. This is after he went through all that. If you listened to him since the end of the season, I don't think there's a more motivated player on the team who wants to prove everyone wrong. And again, this isn't June. He showed when he came back that he improved his discipline by going the other way more and walking more.

    In half a season in 2012, he hit .288 with a .325 OBP. And in two months coming back last year, he hit .276 with a .329 OBP. If he's in those ranges for BA and OBP next year with the power, that's fine. The lineup can afford a couple of free swingers in the lineup if they have his power and run production. In his seven full months in the majors, Middlebrooks has been good to great in five of them, yet too many simply want to focus on the poor two months. Of course, there's no guarantee that Middlebrooks will come through, but with his potential for power and the improvement he showed in the last two months, yes, he deserves the chance too. Plus, he showed his willingness to keep improving last year when he worked with Mike Lowell on his throwing and footwork. He still needs to get better in the field, but that part of his game was improved.



    #4 Bogy, the one rookie I don't mind starting since Pede and Ells.  My concern is SS where he is average at best.

    Average? I don't know, he made some nice plays last year. Beyond that he's still just 21 next year. He's hardly a finished product. I'll certainly take average now if he hits as expected because he seems to be a player who wants to get better and will work. Young players do get better.

    #5 We lose solid depth without Drew or Jacoby

    This makes no sense. It's not like you lose players and can't add players to the roster. If Bradley replaces Ellsbury, there's still the same depth in the OF. And finding IF depth isn't exactly the hardest thing in the world. IF the Sox signed Drew and moved Bogaerts to 3B, I doubt Middlebrooks would be on the bench. So they'd still need a utility infielder.

    #6 We still need another solid RH bat to help with lefties.  Cuddyer, Lake and Davis were all possibilities but so far nothing has been done.

    Perhaps. But that's what was said last year and how did that work out. And if Middlebrooks and Bogaerts both come through, the Sox will be stronger from the right side this year than last year. In fact, Middlebrooks proved to be the answer in the last two months for the RH bat everybody was clamoring for at the trade deadline, so why can't he be the answer this year?

    #7 If Papi, Pede or Victorino spend significant time on the DL?  No real depth offensively spells no PS in 2014.

    That was true last year, especially Ortiz. Victorino missed 40 games last year and how did that work out. No team has the depth to replace their top studs. Who do you expect the Sox to have on the bench to replace an Oritz of a Pedroia?

    Lastly, I know you can never really have enough pitching but we go a step further than deep in the majors and minors.  We also have a surplus of good prospects who play (like positions) and may never find a position in Boston.  If any team in baseball could pull off a real trade without killing our overall talent moving forward the Sox can.  Why suffer for the next year or two if these youngsters don't mature quickly?  Why is this FO so reluctant to pull off a (Wil Myers) type trade?

     I don't get it. First, you're complaining about lack of depth, but now you're saying there's a surplus of players in the minors. You seem to want guarangtees, and there's never any guarantee. You seem to have no faith in Boston's younsters, yet you want the front office to trade for a Will Myers type of prospect. Myers last year was not different than Bogaerts -- a highlty touted, can't miss prospect but who was unproven. You seem to have more faith in players/prospects on other teams than you do in players the Sox have.

    And how did not trading for Myers work out? The Sox don't win anything last year w/o Lester.

    The grass isn't always greener. If you trade for a highly-touted prospect, he's still just as much of an unknown. And why should the Sox not give their prospects -- Bradley, Middlebrooks, Bogaerts -- the chance. Just because they start three young players, it doesn't mean the Sox will suffer for a year or two.

    I don't expect the Sox to start the year with six starters (not including Workman), but I still think you go to camp with all of them. Maybe someone does get hurt. Maybe one of the three youngsters look so bad in the spring, that the Sox feel he can't start the year in the majors. Waiting until the spring or the end of spring to make a trade gives the Sox more flexibility.

     



     
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    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    In response to FL33178's comment:

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    My biggest concern by far is CF:  JBJ is far from a sure thing in 2014, or ever really.   SS worries me slightly, particularly as we have no one that can play the position should Bogaerts not pan out (unlikely, IMO) or get injured.  And 3B is a concern too:  which Midds is going to show up?

    This is the defending champions, not some small-market team....3 unproven youngsters in key positions......



    +1

    Last year Ben pretty much struck gold on all his moves, lightning usually doesn't strike the same place twice 



    First, the off-season is far from over.

     

    Second, this notion that Cherrington got lucky, "lightnig struck", last year is not quite an apt description, though very exciting.  No one from the people that Cherrington picked up last year had anything remotely akin to a career year.  Everyone performed about as could be expected, if basing expectation on career numbers, trends.  The only way to see it as strking lucky gold/lightning is if one had a completely dramatic pessimistic view based on vague unempirical notions last winter:  Vic is damaged goods/done, Carp is a zero, Napoli is paraplegic.  

    He got exactly what he bought.



    This is so true.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

     

    I would also be willing to bet that JBJ will put up a similar line of .275/.374/.469 in a full season in 2014, perhaps not as good as that but I think he will be closer to those numbers than his numbers in Boston in 2013.  All of this wrapped up in a defensive package that should be an upgrade over Ellsbury.

    .......I'm not worried about JBJ at all, as a matter of fact I'm looking forward to it. 

     



    OFFENSIVELY... My prediction for JBJ at best will be 257/320/400 with maybe a.640 to .720 OPS.  Anything higher would be a plus because he hasn't shown us much of anything other than in ST against rusty/scrub pitching.  No way on earth this kid sees a .374 OBP unless he is dreaming about Pede or Papi.

     

    DEFENSIVELY ... He will have a few more errors than some think

     

     



    No way on earth based on what?  he walks, he is dedicated student who is focused on refining his plate approach.  This is a kid who in college would take extra batting practice, trying to induce fould balls on pitches outside and on the border....just so he can be that guy to take more pitches and work counts.

    I agree that .374 is a lot to ask of him in his first year. But I think he can do better than .320  He put up a .317 in the majors in his second half of the season, and like I said before we should expect him to still get better. 

    I think he ends up being around .330 OBP guy his first year with even higher OBP years as he matures.

     

     There's a reason why his stock shot up last year. 

     

    And why do you think he will "have more errors than some will think" based off of what? his defense is, has been, and will continue to be ready and elite and eve that he flashed last year in Boston.  

    And even if his error numbers are up, looking at total number of errors is a highly inefficient way to measure the quality of someones defense. 



    steamer agrees with you on the OBP

    256 Avg, 336 OBP, 402 Slg

     



    That's funny I haven't even checked steamers out yet.

    I think JBJ offensive ceiling is a leadoff hitter, because he might fit that high OBP profile.  It is however competely unrealistic to expect that of him next season.  Perhaps in a year or two....but who knows maybe they could plug him in there by seasons end.

    That is a hole.  

    I think a Nava/Victorino platoon in the leadoff spot will be good enough, but It would be nice to have one guy to count on and plug in there. 

  •  
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

     

    I would also be willing to bet that JBJ will put up a similar line of .275/.374/.469 in a full season in 2014, perhaps not as good as that but I think he will be closer to those numbers than his numbers in Boston in 2013.  All of this wrapped up in a defensive package that should be an upgrade over Ellsbury.

    .......I'm not worried about JBJ at all, as a matter of fact I'm looking forward to it. 

     



    OFFENSIVELY... My prediction for JBJ at best will be 257/320/400 with maybe a.640 to .720 OPS.  Anything higher would be a plus because he hasn't shown us much of anything other than in ST against rusty/scrub pitching.  No way on earth this kid sees a .374 OBP unless he is dreaming about Pede or Papi.

     

    DEFENSIVELY ... He will have a few more errors than some think

     

     



    No way on earth based on what?  he walks, he is dedicated student who is focused on refining his plate approach.  This is a kid who in college would take extra batting practice, trying to induce fould balls on pitches outside and on the border....just so he can be that guy to take more pitches and work counts.

    I agree that .374 is a lot to ask of him in his first year. But I think he can do better than .320  He put up a .317 in the majors in his second half of the season, and like I said before we should expect him to still get better. 

    I think he ends up being around .330 OBP guy his first year with even higher OBP years as he matures.

     

     There's a reason why his stock shot up last year. 

     

    And why do you think he will "have more errors than some will think" based off of what? his defense is, has been, and will continue to be ready and elite and eve that he flashed last year in Boston.  

    And even if his error numbers are up, looking at total number of errors is a highly inefficient way to measure the quality of someones defense. 



    steamer agrees with you on the OBP

    256 Avg, 336 OBP, 402 Slg

     



    That's funny I haven't even checked steamers out yet.

    I think JBJ offensive ceiling is a leadoff hitter, because he might fit that high OBP profile.  It is however competely unrealistic to expect that of him next season.  Perhaps in a year or two....but who knows maybe they could plug him in there by seasons end.

    That is a hole.  

    I think a Nava/Victorino platoon in the leadoff spot will be good enough, but It would be nice to have one guy to count on and plug in there. 



    I agree and think the kid will be great in a year or two.  Those numbers are realistic I'm just not one of those fans who is going to predict we forget about Ells just yet.

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    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

     

    I would also be willing to bet that JBJ will put up a similar line of .275/.374/.469 in a full season in 2014, perhaps not as good as that but I think he will be closer to those numbers than his numbers in Boston in 2013.  All of this wrapped up in a defensive package that should be an upgrade over Ellsbury.

    .......I'm not worried about JBJ at all, as a matter of fact I'm looking forward to it. 

     



    OFFENSIVELY... My prediction for JBJ at best will be 257/320/400 with maybe a.640 to .720 OPS.  Anything higher would be a plus because he hasn't shown us much of anything other than in ST against rusty/scrub pitching.  No way on earth this kid sees a .374 OBP unless he is dreaming about Pede or Papi.

     

    DEFENSIVELY ... He will have a few more errors than some think

     

     



    No way on earth based on what?  he walks, he is dedicated student who is focused on refining his plate approach.  This is a kid who in college would take extra batting practice, trying to induce fould balls on pitches outside and on the border....just so he can be that guy to take more pitches and work counts.

    I agree that .374 is a lot to ask of him in his first year. But I think he can do better than .320  He put up a .317 in the majors in his second half of the season, and like I said before we should expect him to still get better. 

    I think he ends up being around .330 OBP guy his first year with even higher OBP years as he matures.

     

     There's a reason why his stock shot up last year. 

     

    And why do you think he will "have more errors than some will think" based off of what? his defense is, has been, and will continue to be ready and elite and eve that he flashed last year in Boston.  

    And even if his error numbers are up, looking at total number of errors is a highly inefficient way to measure the quality of someones defense. 



    steamer agrees with you on the OBP

    256 Avg, 336 OBP, 402 Slg

     



    That's funny I haven't even checked steamers out yet.

    I think JBJ offensive ceiling is a leadoff hitter, because he might fit that high OBP profile.  It is however competely unrealistic to expect that of him next season.  Perhaps in a year or two....but who knows maybe they could plug him in there by seasons end.

    That is a hole.  

    I think a Nava/Victorino platoon in the leadoff spot will be good enough, but It would be nice to have one guy to count on and plug in there. 



    I agree and think the kid will be great in a year or two.  Those numbers are realistic I'm just not one of those fans who is going to predict we forget about Ells just yet.



    fair enough, and i don't think JBJ is going to replace else offensively.  But I think he will be good enough, and for your first year thats pretty darn good.

    And in the end it's the sum of the team as a whole, perhaps we are stronger in other areas next year.

    But either way we break it down......2013 is a tough act to follow. 

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    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

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    I would also be willing to bet that JBJ will put up a similar line of .275/.374/.469 in a full season in 2014, perhaps not as good as that but I think he will be closer to those numbers than his numbers in Boston in 2013.  All of this wrapped up in a defensive package that should be an upgrade over Ellsbury.

    .......I'm not worried about JBJ at all, as a matter of fact I'm looking forward to it. 

     

     



    OFFENSIVELY... My prediction for JBJ at best will be 257/320/400 with maybe a.640 to .720 OPS.  Anything higher would be a plus because he hasn't shown us much of anything other than in ST against rusty/scrub pitching.  No way on earth this kid sees a .374 OBP unless he is dreaming about Pede or Papi.

     

     

    DEFENSIVELY ... He will have a few more errors than some think

     

     



    No way on earth based on what?  he walks, he is dedicated student who is focused on refining his plate approach.  This is a kid who in college would take extra batting practice, trying to induce fould balls on pitches outside and on the border....just so he can be that guy to take more pitches and work counts.

    I agree that .374 is a lot to ask of him in his first year. But I think he can do better than .320  He put up a .317 in the majors in his second half of the season, and like I said before we should expect him to still get better. 

    I think he ends up being around .330 OBP guy his first year with even higher OBP years as he matures.

     

     There's a reason why his stock shot up last year. 

     

    And why do you think he will "have more errors than some will think" based off of what? his defense is, has been, and will continue to be ready and elite and eve that he flashed last year in Boston.  

    And even if his error numbers are up, looking at total number of errors is a highly inefficient way to measure the quality of someones defense. 



    steamer agrees with you on the OBP

    256 Avg, 336 OBP, 402 Slg

     



    That's funny I haven't even checked steamers out yet.

    I think JBJ offensive ceiling is a leadoff hitter, because he might fit that high OBP profile.  It is however competely unrealistic to expect that of him next season.  Perhaps in a year or two....but who knows maybe they could plug him in there by seasons end.

    That is a hole.  

    I think a Nava/Victorino platoon in the leadoff spot will be good enough, but It would be nice to have one guy to count on and plug in there. 



    I agree and think the kid will be great in a year or two.  Those numbers are realistic I'm just not one of those fans who is going to predict we forget about Ells just yet.



    fair enough, and i don't think JBJ is going to replace else offensively.  But I think he will be good enough, and for your first year thats pretty darn good.

    And in the end it's the sum of the team as a whole, perhaps we are stronger in other areas next year.

    But either way we break it down......2013 is a tough act to follow. 



    With a couple more solid additions we could be right back in it.  I just think as of today we have lost too much depth if Drew and Ells leave without backup at both positions.  I'm fine with allowing the kids to show what they have as long as we pull the trigger quick enough on poor performances to stay in the race all season.

    We did it last year when players struggled but will need to go outside the farm for help this season in my opinion.  I think these young players and our team needs one big (Papi centerpiece) for the future.  He is the one guy our players look up to for big/consistent numbers.  If he goes down or begins to decline it will really hurt. 

    I think only then our FO may realize whats really missing.

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    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

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    I would also be willing to bet that JBJ will put up a similar line of .275/.374/.469 in a full season in 2014, perhaps not as good as that but I think he will be closer to those numbers than his numbers in Boston in 2013.  All of this wrapped up in a defensive package that should be an upgrade over Ellsbury.

    .......I'm not worried about JBJ at all, as a matter of fact I'm looking forward to it. 

     

     



    OFFENSIVELY... My prediction for JBJ at best will be 257/320/400 with maybe a.640 to .720 OPS.  Anything higher would be a plus because he hasn't shown us much of anything other than in ST against rusty/scrub pitching.  No way on earth this kid sees a .374 OBP unless he is dreaming about Pede or Papi.

     

     

    DEFENSIVELY ... He will have a few more errors than some think

     

     

     



    No way on earth based on what?  he walks, he is dedicated student who is focused on refining his plate approach.  This is a kid who in college would take extra batting practice, trying to induce fould balls on pitches outside and on the border....just so he can be that guy to take more pitches and work counts.

     

    I agree that .374 is a lot to ask of him in his first year. But I think he can do better than .320  He put up a .317 in the majors in his second half of the season, and like I said before we should expect him to still get better. 

    I think he ends up being around .330 OBP guy his first year with even higher OBP years as he matures.

     

     There's a reason why his stock shot up last year. 

     

    And why do you think he will "have more errors than some will think" based off of what? his defense is, has been, and will continue to be ready and elite and eve that he flashed last year in Boston.  

    And even if his error numbers are up, looking at total number of errors is a highly inefficient way to measure the quality of someones defense. 



    steamer agrees with you on the OBP

    256 Avg, 336 OBP, 402 Slg

     



    That's funny I haven't even checked steamers out yet.

    I think JBJ offensive ceiling is a leadoff hitter, because he might fit that high OBP profile.  It is however competely unrealistic to expect that of him next season.  Perhaps in a year or two....but who knows maybe they could plug him in there by seasons end.

    That is a hole.  

    I think a Nava/Victorino platoon in the leadoff spot will be good enough, but It would be nice to have one guy to count on and plug in there. 



    I agree and think the kid will be great in a year or two.  Those numbers are realistic I'm just not one of those fans who is going to predict we forget about Ells just yet.



    fair enough, and i don't think JBJ is going to replace else offensively.  But I think he will be good enough, and for your first year thats pretty darn good.

    And in the end it's the sum of the team as a whole, perhaps we are stronger in other areas next year.

    But either way we break it down......2013 is a tough act to follow. 



    With a couple more solid additions we could be right back in it.  I just think as of today we have lost too much depth if Drew and Ells leave without backup at both positions.  I'm fine with allowing the kids to show what they have as long as we pull the trigger quick enough on poor performances to stay in the race all season.

    We did it last year when players struggled but will need to go outside the farm for help this season in my opinion.  I think these young players and our team needs one big (Papi centerpiece) for the future.  He is the one guy our players look up to for big/consistent numbers.  If he goes down or begins to decline it will really hurt. 

    I think only then our FO may realize whats really missing.



    Like I said last year is a tough show to follow, we definitely have holes....but we had holes last year as well.  I think we are in it next year too, especially with two wild cards.

    I agree we need depth, unfortunately it's either go out and buy a starter or go with our youth, because back up are back ups for a reason.

    I expect our rookies to go through some adversity, but I think there is a decent chance of Bogaerts adding a lot more production than Drew did, and that could make up for what we lose in CF.  

    I also think this year and next were kinda bridge years in a sense to this huge wave of talent we have in the minors.  This comes without saying some will bust, some will be traded etc etc and that's a whole other conversation....but we won a WS in one of those years.  When you do that....your organization is doing something right.

    What made this past year so special was how low expectations were coming into the season.  I think we all understand that even with a great team you can't win it every year......but hey then again how sweet would it be to win back to back WS????

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    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Like I said last year is a tough show to follow, we definitely have holes....but we had holes last year as well.  I think we are in it next year too, especially with two wild cards.

    I agree we need depth, unfortunately it's either go out and buy a starter or go with our youth, because back up are back ups for a reason.

    I expect our rookies to go through some adversity, but I think there is a decent chance of Bogaerts adding a lot more production than Drew did, and that could make up for what we lose in CF.  

    I also think this year and next were kinda bridge years in a sense to this huge wave of talent we have in the minors.  This comes without saying some will bust, some will be traded etc etc and that's a whole other conversation....but we won a WS in one of those years.  When you do that....your organization is doing something right.

    What made this past year so special was how low expectations were coming into the season.  I think we all understand that even with a great team you can't win it every year......but hey then again how sweet would it be to win back to back WS????

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed, I predicted we would would make the PS but never expected another championship.  I'm fine with and plan on a couple of bridge seasons if the talent pans out.  Bogy should begin to give us a little of the excitement lost from Jacoby but I don't expect big seasons out of Middy or JBJ.  Nava also had a (career year) that may not be duplicated.  

    It would be great just not expected!

     
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    Re: I'm Fine if Cherington Takes Off for the Rest of the Offseason

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

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    I would also be willing to bet that JBJ will put up a similar line of .275/.374/.469 in a full season in 2014, perhaps not as good as that but I think he will be closer to those numbers than his numbers in Boston in 2013.  All of this wrapped up in a defensive package that should be an upgrade over Ellsbury.

    .......I'm not worried about JBJ at all, as a matter of fact I'm looking forward to it. 

     

     



    OFFENSIVELY... My prediction for JBJ at best will be 257/320/400 with maybe a.640 to .720 OPS.  Anything higher would be a plus because he hasn't shown us much of anything other than in ST against rusty/scrub pitching.  No way on earth this kid sees a .374 OBP unless he is dreaming about Pede or Papi.

     

     

    DEFENSIVELY ... He will have a few more errors than some think

     

     

     



    No way on earth based on what?  he walks, he is dedicated student who is focused on refining his plate approach.  This is a kid who in college would take extra batting practice, trying to induce fould balls on pitches outside and on the border....just so he can be that guy to take more pitches and work counts.

     

    I agree that .374 is a lot to ask of him in his first year. But I think he can do better than .320  He put up a .317 in the majors in his second half of the season, and like I said before we should expect him to still get better. 

    I think he ends up being around .330 OBP guy his first year with even higher OBP years as he matures.

     

     There's a reason why his stock shot up last year. 

     

    And why do you think he will "have more errors than some will think" based off of what? his defense is, has been, and will continue to be ready and elite and eve that he flashed last year in Boston.  

    And even if his error numbers are up, looking at total number of errors is a highly inefficient way to measure the quality of someones defense. 



    steamer agrees with you on the OBP

    256 Avg, 336 OBP, 402 Slg

     



    That's funny I haven't even checked steamers out yet.

    I think JBJ offensive ceiling is a leadoff hitter, because he might fit that high OBP profile.  It is however competely unrealistic to expect that of him next season.  Perhaps in a year or two....but who knows maybe they could plug him in there by seasons end.

    That is a hole.  

    I think a Nava/Victorino platoon in the leadoff spot will be good enough, but It would be nice to have one guy to count on and plug in there. 



    I agree and think the kid will be great in a year or two.  Those numbers are realistic I'm just not one of those fans who is going to predict we forget about Ells just yet.



    fair enough, and i don't think JBJ is going to replace else offensively.  But I think he will be good enough, and for your first year thats pretty darn good.

    And in the end it's the sum of the team as a whole, perhaps we are stronger in other areas next year.

    But either way we break it down......2013 is a tough act to follow. 



    With a couple more solid additions we could be right back in it.  I just think as of today we have lost too much depth if Drew and Ells leave without backup at both positions.  I'm fine with allowing the kids to show what they have as long as we pull the trigger quick enough on poor performances to stay in the race all season.

    We did it last year when players struggled but will need to go outside the farm for help this season in my opinion.  I think these young players and our team needs one big (Papi centerpiece) for the future.  He is the one guy our players look up to for big/consistent numbers.  If he goes down or begins to decline it will really hurt. 

    I think only then our FO may realize whats really missing.



    Like I said last year is a tough show to follow, we definitely have holes....but we had holes last year as well.  I think we are in it next year too, especially with two wild cards.

    I agree we need depth, unfortunately it's either go out and buy a starter or go with our youth, because back up are back ups for a reason.

    I expect our rookies to go through some adversity, but I think there is a decent chance of Bogaerts adding a lot more production than Drew did, and that could make up for what we lose in CF.  

    I also think this year and next were kinda bridge years in a sense to this huge wave of talent we have in the minors.  This comes without saying some will bust, some will be traded etc etc and that's a whole other conversation....but we won a WS in one of those years.  When you do that....your organization is doing something right.

    What made this past year so special was how low expectations were coming into the season.  I think we all understand that even with a great team you can't win it every year......but hey then again how sweet would it be to win back to back WS????



        Back to back WS wins would be great. Not easy but within reach. Your point earlier about JBJ in the lead off spot is where I would like to see him. He has shown some plate patience and that's a good starting point. Having the same guy lead off every game is a plus. Having won the WS last year my hope is they continue to develop their own talent and if they do you can expect to see a competitive team for years to come.

     
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