Importance of Ellsbury

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    As Lowrie plays more, his fragile physical and mental consttitution are exposed to reveal exactly what his career metric averages say he is. He is truly a butcher in the field with very little range, weak v. RHP, and belongs in a platoon v. LHP role to rest him and mask his weak constitution. His only position where he is marginal is at 2nd base.

    Ellsbury is also what his career metric averages say he is, which is why the late 2007 euphoria is reblooming currently in what is not representative of what Ellsbury really is over the big sample. 

    A smart GM recognizes his roster construction weaknesses, short and long term, and sells high when needed to address roster construction weakness. Lowrie's value will never be higher than last winter. Ellsbury's value is higher because of his current OBP spike, but it's also diminished because another year of control is ticking down. Ellsbury's value is not ever going any higher but it will go a lot lower.

    The question is, what are the future team needs? Is the plan to extend Ellsbury and Lowrie? A mistake in light of Crawford, Kalish, Reddick and lefty speed and chip hitter depth, and no solid young MLB mature RH OF'er, at all. A mistake in light of Iggy, Navy, and an easy one year cheap deal for a veteran SS to bridge any needed maturation time that Iggy needs. 

    Good planning requires good talent and team need assessment, well in advance. Not reacting after the fact. How long is Theo going to sit on his hands before deciding whether to extend or sign as a FA Lowrie and Ellsbury? What does he have in place in younger players? What are the current and future team needs? 

    Pretty clear to me that the Red Sox need a solid overall young RH OF'er.

    Pretty clear to me that the Red Sox are married to a too expensive divorce to change horses on Carl Crawford, the exact same type of player profile as Ellsbury.

    Pretty clear to me that Ellsbury has his highest value to a big market NL team.

    Pretty clear to me that Ellsbury, overall, does not have the career offensive and defensive metrics to provide good value over a long term FA contract. But even if someone claims he really is "breaking out" career star in a career that is already approaching the late 20's and not one single full season long star metric season, Crawford is already that kind of player and has been for years, but is still in his late 20's.

    Better long term value in Kalish, Reddick and maturing farm talent on the lefty OF'er map. 

    The CBA uncertainty on FA departing team compensation and the uncertainty that Ellsbury would qualify as a Type A or B (As of May 30, 2011 he is not), pointing to a decision on trading that should not wait until the final control year and a smaller trade market.

    Both the Dodgers and the DBacks are possible trading partners, with economic factors as they are. DBacks don't quite match up as well as the Dodgers.

    Kemp isn't the kind of player that would be popular to Red Sox fans, but he is a much more gifted baseball talent than Ellsbury and a better long term fit, moving into the AL and Boston big market from the big market in LA. The Dodgers have an emerging OF RH/Switch hitter talent in AAA, named Rayvon Robinson who has pop and power.
     
    Lowrie would be a good 2nd base value for the DBacks, over Kelly Johnson. He's younger and KJ is a FA and not a very talented player and is a poor contract value due to years of service and low talent. 

    With Young under control until as late as 2014 (grossly inferior player to Upton but similar type of player), the DBacks have already shopped Upton's balooning back end contract for a wish price. Long term, the DBacks are not going to keep Upton and have already solicited offers. This winter, they most certainly will listen to an offer that starts with Ellsbury and Lowrie. 

    Going forward, I can't see how Theo can see any long term future for Ellsbury and Lowrie with the Red Sox. Waiting until the last year or so to trade or extend them doesn't sound like a plan, more of a reaction with a plan.    
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    I actually like Ells and Lowrie for Upton. I think Upton could really blossom in the Red Sox lineup. I don't think Crawford is an ideal leadoff guy though. He's great hitting behind Papi as David sees a lot more fastballs with Crawford hitting after him. I don't think we have an excellent leadoff option other than Ells. Maybe Lowrie, Kalish and Reddick for Upton?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from canetime. Show canetime's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Importance of Ellsbury:
    As Lowrie plays more, his fragile physical and mental consttitution are exposed to reveal exactly what his career metric averages say he is. He is truly a butcher in the field with very little range, weak v. RHP, and belongs in a platoon v. LHP role to rest him and mask his weak constitution. His only position where he is marginal is at 2nd base. Ellsbury is also what his career metric averages say he is, which is why the late 2007 euphoria is reblooming currently in what is not representative of what Ellsbury really is over the big sample.  A smart GM recognizes his roster construction weaknesses, short and long term, and sells high when needed to address roster construction weakness. Lowrie's value will never be higher than last winter. Ellsbury's value is higher because of his current OBP spike, but it's also diminished because another year of control is ticking down. Ellsbury's value is not ever going any higher but it will go a lot lower. The question is, what are the future team needs? Is the plan to extend Ellsbury and Lowrie? A mistake in light of Crawford, Kalish, Reddick and lefty speed and chip hitter depth, and no solid young MLB mature RH OF'er, at all. A mistake in light of Iggy, Navy, and an easy one year cheap deal for a veteran SS to bridge any needed maturation time that Iggy needs.  Good planning requires good talent and team need assessment, well in advance. Not reacting after the fact. How long is Theo going to sit on his hands before deciding whether to extend or sign as a FA Lowrie and Ellsbury? What does he have in place in younger players? What are the current and future team needs?  Pretty clear to me that the Red Sox need a solid overall young RH OF'er. Pretty clear to me that the Red Sox are married to a too expensive divorce to change horses on Carl Crawford, the exact same type of player profile as Ellsbury. Pretty clear to me that Ellsbury has his highest value to a big market NL team. Pretty clear to me that Ellsbury, overall, does not have the career offensive and defensive metrics to provide good value over a long term FA contract. But even if someone claims he really is "breaking out" career star in a career that is already approaching the late 20's and not one single full season long star metric season, Crawford is already that kind of player and has been for years, but is still in his late 20's. Better long term value in Kalish, Reddick and maturing farm talent on the lefty OF'er map.  The CBA uncertainty on FA departing team compensation and the uncertainty that Ellsbury would qualify as a Type A or B (As of May 30, 2011 he is not), pointing to a decision on trading that should not wait until the final control year and a smaller trade market. Both the Dodgers and the DBacks are possible trading partners, with economic factors as they are. DBacks don't quite match up as well as the Dodgers. Kemp isn't the kind of player that would be popular to Red Sox fans, but he is a much more gifted baseball talent than Ellsbury and a better long term fit, moving into the AL and Boston big market from the big market in LA. The Dodgers have an emerging OF RH/Switch hitter talent in AAA, named Rayvon Robinson who has pop and power.   Lowrie would be a good 2nd base value for the DBacks, over Kelly Johnson. He's younger and KJ is a FA and not a very talented player and is a poor contract value due to years of service and low talent.  With Young under control until as late as 2014 (grossly inferior player to Upton but similar type of player), the DBacks have already shopped Upton's balooning back end contract for a wish price. Long term, the DBacks are not going to keep Upton and have already solicited offers. This winter, they most certainly will listen to an offer that starts with Ellsbury and Lowrie.  Going forward, I can't see how Theo can see any long term future for Ellsbury and Lowrie with the Red Sox. Waiting until the last year or so to trade or extend them doesn't sound like a plan, more of a reaction with a plan.    
    Posted by betterredthandead


    pretty clear you know nothing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    Pretty clear you are bereft of mind and unable to engage in an intelligent discussion.

    carnie, Crawford would be fine leading off, and fits there in the long term. Kalish would also be a potential option. Ellsbury's career OBP is in the .340's, right now, Crawford's career OBP is in the .330's, but in his career high years, 2009 and 2010, it's over .350. He is a better overall player than Ellsbury and would work fine in the leadoff spot, and it might mean Upton or Kemp or similar young talented RH OF'er moving into the lineup. 

    The notion of "the perfect leadoff man" is a myth that has been perpetuated for years about Ellsbury. Because he's currently near a career high point during a season, early June, it's now beeen thrown out there again on a constant basis. "A perfect leadoff man" is someone like a younger Ichiro, not Ellsbury. But the reality is that baseball is about overall skills in plate work and defense. Needless to say, offensive capability is more about the depth of overall plate work down the 9 spots, than it is about whether Jeter or Ichiro is leading off. 

    The reality is that planning requires thinking beyond June 11, 2011, and the Red Sox have a greater need for a talented young RH Of'er. They have an overload of lefty scatback profiles and Ellsbury is now in the final phase before FA. 

    Combine short and long term, hard to claim that trading Ellsbury for a quality young RH OF'er makes the team worse or means lower value. 

    Theo most certainly factors popularity in his decisions, a huge mistake in planning approach.    
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    Wow!  bettered/ SoldRed / GM / ???

    Clearly you don't follow the Sox!  Otherwise you would KNOW that the LHer Drew (an outfielder) will be leaving shortly!!!!  Perfect opportunity to install that young RH hitter????   Replacing Ells. at this time is just flat out stupid!  ANY BASEBALL organization would take advantage of the time we have with him before FA!!!!!   If you knew baseball you would know that!  Your arguments are simply specious!  Not to mention just plain dumb!

    Oh!  BTW.....   Ells is one of the hottest hitters in ALL of baseball...... If that matters to you?   :)
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury



    Ellsbury is having an awesome season so far! 

    Let's hope that Crawford gets hot too. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    I think it's likely that Ellsbury has better numbers going forward than Crawford. And he's a better CF than Crawford as well. We use him until he goes bye bye to free agency IMO. And maybe get a ring or 2 as a result.

    The whole CBA thing could potentially be challenged I would think by some of the draftees if we go hard slot. I don't see how we can do that although I know it's been bantered about quite a bit. That unsigned high school kid has nothing to do with the union. Is he require to join the union? I guess there are some industries like that, for example some teamsters sites, maybe the air traffic controllers union...etc. I'm not very aware of such things so correct me if I'm wrong, but please make sure you are right before correcting me!

    The Curt Flood case and Messerschmidt...etc involved players who were no longer under contract, or filed to obviate unfair contracts if I remember correctly. A high school kid who submits himself to the draft is not required to sign. If there is hard slotting wouldn't it be a clear restriction of trade? Do union laws allow for such restrictions as part of collective bargaining agreements in general ( I'm guessing yes ) but even for minor league players?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    At my shop new employees are required to join the Teamsters. I think the same is true of MLB. I think they have to join the MLBPA to even play minor league ball.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Importance of Ellsbury:
    The Curt Flood case and Messerschmidt...etc involved players who were no longer under contract, or filed to obviate unfair contracts if I remember correctly. A high school kid who submits himself to the draft is not required to sign. If there is hard slotting wouldn't it be a clear restriction of trade? Do union laws allow for such restrictions as part of collective bargaining agreements in general ( I'm guessing yes ) but even for minor league players?
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    The first example I can think of for this is the NBA where there is a hard slotting system, and often times the later round picks go to the developmental league (the minors if you will).  So yes it can be done.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    It amazes me how betterdead can keep insisting that Kalish and Reddick represent better value than Ellsbury when 1) Ellsbury is the only one who has excelled at the MLB level; 2) he is paid just slightly more than the MLB minimum.  I like the possibility of either Reddick or Kalish replacing Drew, but think we should wait and see rather than assume they can do the job.  

    Ellsbury, meanwhile, looks like a sure thing and a bargain to boot.   Right now Jake is #2 in the AL in hits, #4 in runs scored, tied for #1 in doubles, and has the 9th best OPS and the 6th best batting average.  He is the only good hitter in the AL who can also create havoc on the basepaths and the only hitter among all those who can steal bases. 

    While I would normally agree that a young, power-hitting righty outfielder would be just fine, I am also aware that this lineup is hitting well with basically all lefties in the OF.  Cameron, the one righty, can't hit spit and, really, is not needed. 
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    Ells is one of the hottest hitters in ALL of baseball...... If that matters to you?   :)

    Perfect time to trade papi and AGon the too, right?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    It amazes me how betterdead can keep insisting that Kalish and Reddick represent better value than Ellsbury

    When your reading comprehension goes past illeterate, you will understand that Kalish and Reddick with whoever Ellsbury is traded for is how the value is determned. As for the when, I don't think there is one word about a trade this month.

    Trades are almost raised to sell low and buy high. Discussing trades in anticipation of the long term future which involves selling high is beyond the brain cell capability of nearly all fans. It's also beyond the brain cell activity of a lot of GM's.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    I think if Ells keeps playing this way the sox will either have to pony up, which Id like to see, or get the 2 picks.the way hes playing ,He should be typeA... (in 2 more years ). But Im just going to enjoy the best leadoff hitter on"my team" for the next 2.5 years..
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    In 6 games in Yankee Stadium this year Ellsbury is hitting 444/500/704.  He has been a big part of our dominance there.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    Ells is having himself a career year..The scary thing is that Hes going to get better..
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    While all you salami's were attacking Ells last year for being destroyed by Beltre, I told you Ells was the key to the Sox attack...not Pedey, Agon, Papi, or Youk. As I said, As Ells goes, the Sox go. Once again I am 100% correct.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    Betterredthandead--there you go again.  You quoted just the first sentence--about how it amazes me that you can insist that Reddick and Kalish represent better value than Ellsbury. 

    What you left out was why.  Ellsbury has actually proven he can play well at the MLB level, but neither Reddick nor Kalish has.  Right now Ellsbury is having a career year that is way beyond what either of them has shown he is capable of.  Moreover, right now Ellsbury is a huge bargain.  He is paid just over the MLB minimum, but is doing what the Sox are paying Crawford $20M/year to do.  And you keep insisting that the Sox need to dump him to some unknowedgeable NL team. 

    As for the future, I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox offer Ellsbury a good contract this offseason with the sure knowledge that J.D. Drew--talk about a guy who was overpaid--is gone forever.    They just might get him for $10M per year, and that would represent a savings provided Reddick or Kalish could fill in at RF. 

    You also keep insisting that only a power-hitting righty will do to replace Drew and/or Ellsbury.  Last time I checked, about 75% of MLB pitchers are righties, which gives lefty hitters an advantage.  Unsurprisingly, the HOF has a ton of lefty hitters in it, including some guy named Williams. 

    Right now the three best hitters on the Sox are all lefties--Gonzalez, Ortiz, and Ellsbury.  A fourth, Crawford, had a good May and is having an even better June.  Our two best righties, meanwhile, are down from their normal OPS's--not that I don't think Pedroia and Youkilis are key to this team, because I do think that. 

    And, while we're on the subject, the Sox currently do not have a power-hitting righty of any kind.  No Manny, no Jason Bay, not even an Adrian Beltre.  But they are leading MLB in runs scored and are likely to get even better. 
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    Ellsbury is not a fit for the Dodgers,  financially that is.  If I'm correct he has 1 year extra before he hits free agency and he has Boras as an agent.  I doubt a team looking to unload financially is going to unload Kemp for one year extra of Ellsbury....L.A. will want top notch MLB ready minor league talent.  

    Ellsbury will likely only render one draft pick because the system is expected to change after this year.  Ellsbury's biggest value to this team is either on it, or traded.

    I also wonder if Ellsbury finishes the year with (yet again) an higher OBP, as it has gone up every season he has played full time, if Softy will give him any credit...or if he'll keep citing his career avg. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Importance of Ellsbury:
    It amazes me how betterdead can keep insisting that Kalish and Reddick represent better value than Ellsbury when 1) Ellsbury is the only one who has excelled at the MLB level; 2) he is paid just slightly more than the MLB minimum.  I like the possibility of either Reddick or Kalish replacing Drew, but think we should wait and see rather than assume they can do the job.   Ellsbury, meanwhile, looks like a sure thing and a bargain to boot.   Right now Jake is #2 in the AL in hits, #4 in runs scored, tied for #1 in doubles, and has the 9th best OPS and the 6th best batting average.  He is the only good hitter in the AL who can also create havoc on the basepaths and the only hitter among all those who can steal bases.  While I would normally agree that a young, power-hitting righty outfielder would be just fine, I am also aware that this lineup is hitting well with basically all lefties in the OF.  Cameron, the one righty, can't hit spit and, really, is not needed. 
    Posted by maxbialystock

     Great post! Your stats don't lie but there are several folks on this forum who continue to bad-mouth the guy in spite of the terrific year he's having. What type of fan doesn't celebrate a player who is having a great year?
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    "...a lead-off hitter has to have an OBP of .400, Ells has a paper arm, no range. Don't be fooled by the fact that he has played in every game he is just another MLBPA slacker. Don't triffle with me or I'll shoot you down..."








     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    5K schools the banned-wonder.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    Ells has a line of .335/.388/.482 from the #1 spot in the lineup (224 AB's).

    His OBP is 4th in MLB for hitters from the #1 spot (min 100 AB's), or 5th in MLB (min 50 AB's).

    His OBP is 1st in the AL from the #1 spot (min 50 AB's).  Not sure what more you can ask for from a lead off hitter with speed (although it would be nice if he could improve his SB sucess rate [75%]).
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    The Yanks have a leadoff hitter with a .324 OBP (Jeter) right now.

    TB has a .326 OBP leadoff hitter in Johnny Damon, who just replaced a guy who has a .279 OBP for the year (Fuld).

    Texas has a .359 OBP as a team from the 1 slot (mostly Kinsler).

    Detroit has a .303 team OBP at leadoff (Austin Jackson).

    The Phillies?  .329 (mostly Rollins at .305 and Victorino at .353)

    The Sox have a .357 OBP at the one slot, thanks to Jacoby:
    Ellsbury .388 (246 PAs)
    Craw     .121  (33)
    Drew     .400  (15)
    Lowrie  .333   (9)
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from keepmanny7. Show keepmanny7's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    Jeff Francouer is a FA after this year.  pretty decent, affordable option to replace drew in RF and the 7-8 slot in the order.  problem solved. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Importance of Ellsbury

    In Response to Re: Importance of Ellsbury:
    Jeff Francouer is a FA after this year.  pretty decent, affordable option to replace drew in RF and the 7-8 slot in the order.  problem solved. 
    Posted by keepmanny7


    That's IF he's a FA after this season.... He's still arb eligible after this year as he'll have 5 years and 88 days of service time.
     
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