Re: Is 2013 the True
posted at 10/26/2012 8:51 AM EDT
I hate it when Moon says things I don't like because I believe him. ;)
Having said that, I hope we do make some moves to compete and possibly win next season, but I don't want anyone to panic and make bad moves to try to get there. Middlebrooks was doing great until injured, Papi was doing great until injured, Sweeney was really helping the team with his 1,000 doubles and great catches until injured and the list goes on, including Pedroia. We won't know where we stand until we see them all again.
I'll add Lester, Buch and Dubrount as well. I also really want to see how Lacky does after his surgery.
C. However, I am always open to A or B. It just depends on the trade market for Ellsbury and whether the short term high priced vets are obtainable. If they are not and a great deal for prospects could be made for Ells, I might change my mind and go with the bridge year strategy. I don't resign Papi in the circumstance though.
With that being said, I think we can win it all. I think the 50 million that can easily be spent, will be spent and will be spent wisely. The bad luck, injuries and horrible chemistry will all be dramatically improved. Five wins with even normal luck, 10 wins with additions. And 15 wins, yes I said that, 15 wins with good solid health equals....30 more wins. That doesn't even mention chemistry. 100 wins is very possible. Almost logical.
If we spend between $50-100M, like we can, (not counting arb or pre-arb raises) and still stay under the luxury tax cap, we can have a decent season. We may even make the playoffs if a bunch of things all happen at once. I know once in the playoffs "anything can happen", but realistically, I seriously doubt we can gain enough strength to advance to the AL Championship game or win a ring.
I'm not giving up on 2013. My plans I have put forth all make us better in 2013 than we were in 2012, and perhaps even better than opening day 2012.
The way I look at it is that in order for us to be a legitimate ring contender (and maybe we are arguing semantics here with teh word "legitimate"), we'd need to do too many drastic things. For instance, in order for me to view us as a top 4-6 "favorite", we'd have to do something like this:
Sign: Greinke or Peavy or 2 of Sanchez, Jackson, or McCarthy.
Sign: Hamilton or trade top prospects for J Upton.
Sign: Papi or Napoli.
Sign: Ross and another mid-range player or two (SS? 1B?).
Keep Ellsbury (has a near 2011 type season) and get just a draft pick after he bolts in 2014.
Hope and pray Lester & Pedey regain form, Buch & Bailey stay healthy, the pen repeats a decent season, and everyone stays relatively healthy and at career norm production levels.
I'm usually an optimistic guy, but I think even with all the above additions, which I am not for all of them, I see us as needing too much good to happen to consider ourselves a favorite.
Last spring, I mentioned we would not seriously compete in 2012 without a major starting pitcher addition. I pointed out that Lester, Backett and Buch had never had fully healthy and productive seasons all at the same time and that counting on that to happen was unrealistic. As it turned out, not even 1 of them stayed healthy and oproductive all season long. Now, look to 2013. Doubront and morales might improve and help us, but they are not expected to put up the numbers Lester & Beckett have given us in recent selected seasons. The return of Lackey could be a pleasant surprise. Guys like Tazawa and Mortensen could continue to shine. Bard may bounce back in his familiar role. But, I seriously can not bring myself to reasonably expect these things to happen. I hope they all do. I will root for everyone. Individually, I can see it happening, but all together, or even most all happening- I just can not objectively see it.
I want to improve in 2013 with an eye to 2014 and beyond. I'd be thrilled to be surprised in 2013, but my answer still remains "B", while my more optimistic side is hoping for "C". Maybe after a few bold moves, I may improve my outlook, but right now, this team is awful on paper for 2013 alone.