Re: Is 2013 the True
posted at 11/7/2012 2:28 AM EST
In response to southpaw777's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
I think the team goal is to appear to be competitive in 2013, but with a strong eye to 2014 and beyond as the real prize.
I think with the right moves things can happen this year. Not sure why you see looking to 2014 is better Moon. I dont count on young players dominating their first year more than some seasoned vets. Lost of adjustments to make in year one for them. its a cat and mouse game most of the year. We could see than with WMB this year before the injury.
I think I have laid out my reasons specifically, but here is a summary:
1) We are currently, as our roster is right now, so very very far away from being a serious competitor in 2013.
2) This is a weak FA class, and the best players are not good fits for us. Thus, I think rebuilding to a serious competitive status will take 2+ free agent cycles.
3) We can begin the rebuilding process in earnest this winter, but I don't see us getting all the way there in so short of a time.
4) I don't buy the "if we can only stay healthy" argument anymore. I don't buy the "if Lester, Lackey, Pedey, and... return to form" argument anymore. They both may happen, and that would be great, but I am not planning on it.
5) I think our kids are really going to surprise us, and I think our kids will also allow us to pick up some fine players by trading a few of them. I remember 1975, and I think our top prospects show great promise. I'm not saying Bradley & Brentz will be the next Rice & Lynn, but I really think there are 7-11 good prospects with a nice chance to contribute by 2014 or 2015. Not all will, but I think it is realistic that 3-5 will.
6) We have some young ML experienced players & post prospects that should be peaking by 2014-2015. We don't have many older players that their declines will harm us that much. I see our trajectory looking better in 2014-2015 than 2013. This could change with some radical signings or trades, but I think we will only make a few moderate trades to improve us going forward.
Age in 2014:
38 Papi, Atchison
30 Pedey, Lester, Bailey
29 Buch, Bard, Miller, Melancon, Mortensen
28 Tazawa, Morales
26 Doubront, Lava, Kalish
The only meaningful player here with expected age decline is Papi.
Sure some should do well, but I think the team has a better chance with a good mix of solid veteran presence and young players than mostly prospects making their debut, like they will/should have this year. In 2014 guys like Brentz, Bradley, Webster, Rubby D, Wilson, Bogaerts, Britton, Workman, and Pimentel, provided their still here, all have a chance to be on the team. Thats a lot of kids.
Bottom line id if the pitching doesnt do well, this team will not do well.
Ok, so your relying a lot on our prospects. Thats what I though.
I like your optimism Moon, and can agree to a point that I too think our "kids" will do well. Im just not as confident that they will all do so well that 2014 we will be better because of them. I think, like this coming year (2013) a good mix of solid vets mixed in with the prospects will result in a better record.
We both do agree that we have some potentially very solid prospects in the upper levels of the system that have a good chance of playing at a high on the big stage withing the next couple years. That, is something we can get excited about.
I'm counting on 3-4 kids helping in meaningful ways, but not necessarily leading us to a ring. I am counting on a couple major trades this winter and a couple decent signings that will set us up for another couple nice moves next winter. The kids will compliment what we already have and what we pick up between now and then.