Is a K better than a double play?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dustcover. Show dustcover's posts

    Is a K better than a double play?

    Someone recently tried to justify Napoli's strikeouts by presenting the argument that a strikeout is better than a double play.  To which I offer this response.

    I will agree that in most cases a K is better than a double play.

    But, just for the sake of argument, if instead of striking out 187 times, he had made contact with the ball, would that have still resulted in 187 outs?  Or let's say he made contact in just 25% of those 187 at-bats, would he still have made 187 outs?  Or would that 25% (47 at-bats) making contact produced some hits?  Let's say .250 x 47 = 12 hits.   I still maintain that making contact as opposed to striking out offers a better rate of overall success.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    It's not that simple.  Mike Napoli swings very hard and that is what causes a lot of the K's.  When he makes contact, he makes very hard contact and he hits booming home runs and doubles.  His overall production this year was just about what should have been expected. 

    There are certain situations where not striking out becomes much more important, such as with a runner on third and one out.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    u got in problem solved

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to dustcover's comment:

    Someone recently tried to justify Napoli's strikeouts by presenting the argument that a strikeout is better than a double play.  To which I offer this response.

    I will agree that in most cases a K is better than a double play.

    But, just for the sake of argument, if instead of striking out 187 times, he had made contact with the ball, would that have still resulted in 187 outs?  Or let's say he made contact in just 25% of those 187 at-bats, would he still have made 187 outs?  Or would that 25% (47 at-bats) making contact produced some hits?  Let's say .250 x 47 = 12 hits.   I still maintain that making contact as opposed to striking out offers a better rate of overall success.



    It may very well have been I who said that in an attempt to put a different spin on those 187 K's.

    IIRC I posted at that time that Napoli was 3rd on the team in GIDP in spite of having 187 K's.  Think about THAT for a minute! Smile

    My point there was that had Napoli struck out at a more reasonable rate of say, half that (93), he would have had 94 more opportunites to hit into DP's.  Of course that's not entirely true because he would have had to have had the opportunity to hit into a DP, i.e., a runner on 1st with less than two out.

    I'm sure that in this day of super-statistics someone somewhere has data on how many chances Naps has to GIDP but I don't have it.  It's only my reasonable (?) opinion frrom watching nearly all the games this year that his K's many times gave the Sox an out they wouldn't have had if he'd made contact.

    I dunno.. just something to play with.  Don't take it all that seriously. Smile

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    It's not that simple.  Mike Napoli swings very hard and that is what causes a lot of the K's.  When he makes contact, he makes very hard contact and he hits booming home runs and doubles.  His overall production this year was just about what should have been expected. 

    There are certain situations where not striking out becomes much more important, such as with a runner on third and one out.



    This is one of the stats that absolutely do not work in isolation.  The K/W rate is far more important than the K-rate.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?


    If you want to break it down, his BABIP was a ridiculous .367, and at that rate, making contact would have rsulted in 17 more hits.   However, it is unlikely he maintains his lofty BABIP if he is trying to not strike out and put the ball in play.   His career BABIP is .310, which would have resulted in 14.5 more hits.  Again, this change in approach probably results in a more drastic BABIP drop, and also an overall drop in SLG, since he does not protect the plate with 2 strikes (as Justin Verlander learned).

     

    But the thing is, Napoli strikes out because takes a lot of pitches, and frequently puts himself in the hole.  The "hits"he is loing per your argument are mostly replaced by walks.  And while a walk is not as good as a hit, despite what all your Little League coaches told you, it is certainly better than any kind of out, and even offers ancillary benefts a hit does not, such as making the pitcher work harder. 

     

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    AFAIK Napoli was at the top, or near the top, in MLB for pitches per at-bat.  That made him an integral part of the Sox offensive strategy of driving up pitch counts and getting starters out of the game early.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to dustcover's comment:

    Someone recently tried to justify Napoli's strikeouts by presenting the argument that a strikeout is better than a double play.  To which I offer this response.

    I will agree that in most cases a K is better than a double play.

    But, just for the sake of argument, if instead of striking out 187 times, he had made contact with the ball, would that have still resulted in 187 outs?  Or let's say he made contact in just 25% of those 187 at-bats, would he still have made 187 outs?  Or would that 25% (47 at-bats) making contact produced some hits?  Let's say .250 x 47 = 12 hits.   I still maintain that making contact as opposed to striking out offers a better rate of overall success.




    interesting take

    I'm still not that bothered by K's

    but you made an interesting point

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    It's not that simple.  Mike Napoli swings very hard and that is what causes a lot of the K's.  When he makes contact, he makes very hard contact and he hits booming home runs and doubles.  His overall production this year was just about what should have been expected. 

    There are certain situations where not striking out becomes much more important, such as with a runner on third and one out.



    This is one of the stats that absolutely do not work in isolation.  The K/W rate is far more important than the K-rate.




    It seems lie no matter how many times you point out this obvious fact, fans will get down on K/BB star Napoli while supporting K/BB failure Middlebrooks...

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to dustcover's comment:

    Someone recently tried to justify Napoli's strikeouts by presenting the argument that a strikeout is better than a double play.  To which I offer this response.

    I will agree that in most cases a K is better than a double play.

    But, just for the sake of argument, if instead of striking out 187 times, he had made contact with the ball, would that have still resulted in 187 outs?  Or let's say he made contact in just 25% of those 187 at-bats, would he still have made 187 outs?  Or would that 25% (47 at-bats) making contact produced some hits?  Let's say .250 x 47 = 12 hits.   I still maintain that making contact as opposed to striking out offers a better rate of overall success.




    And here we all ignored the original question.

     

    In general, a K is better than a DP.  Unless you are a pitcher....

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    When I look at his @#$%^&()_+__+(*%^#@$@!#@# ratings I seriously believe that a strikeout  is better than a hit but based on this other system #@$$^%^&*)_+__+(*%$#@@# I now believe the opposite !!

    Sorry folks but I can't get into all of these stats, systems, ratings, etc. Call me what you want, simple minded, etc but I just look at a few basics, strike out vs walk ratio vs how many times at bat, and that's about it. Oh and of course RBIs. I can't get involved in all of these other ratings stats, whatever. Yes Naps does strike out a lot, but he also produces runs for the team at important times. Simply said he has always struck out a lot and that's not going to change any time soon, but he produces lots of RBIs. His defense was also a pleasant surprise this year as well. He ain't perfect but for the Sox I hope he resigns for another 2-3 years.   

    Hetch

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    It's not that simple.  Mike Napoli swings very hard and that is what causes a lot of the K's.  When he makes contact, he makes very hard contact and he hits booming home runs and doubles.  His overall production this year was just about what should have been expected. 

    There are certain situations where not striking out becomes much more important, such as with a runner on third and one out.



    This is one of the stats that absolutely do not work in isolation.  The K/W rate is far more important than the K-rate.




    It seems lie no matter how many times you point out this obvious fact, fans will get down on K/BB star Napoli while supporting K/BB failure Middlebrooks...



    Notin, 

    If some fans are unhappy with Naps strikeout rate or Will Middlebrooks take in mind Stanton strikes out once in every three at bats. Do the Sox want a line up with both Naps and Stanton who both strikeout at a very high rate. The Sox need hitters with a bit more patience at the plate who can work the count and make pitchers work. On the plus side Stanton does walk a bit driving up his OBP.

    Just something to think about !!

    Hetch 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    The only time I see a double play better than a strikeout is when you have the bases loaded with no outs in a tie game.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

    The only time I see a double play better than a strikeout is when you have the bases loaded with no outs in a tie game.

     



    Unless it's scored x-2-x.  :-)

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    AFAIK Napoli was at the top, or near the top, in MLB for pitches per at-bat.  That made him an integral part of the Sox offensive strategy of driving up pitch counts and getting starters out of the game early.




    Bingo!

    This is one of those Blue Oyster Cult moments when you and I both agree 100%!!!

    I'm sure there are stats for this , I would surely like to know where to find them, I would love to know how MLB lineups fair vs. middle relievers as opposed to vs. starters.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    It's not that simple.  Mike Napoli swings very hard and that is what causes a lot of the K's.  When he makes contact, he makes very hard contact and he hits booming home runs and doubles.  His overall production this year was just about what should have been expected. 

    There are certain situations where not striking out becomes much more important, such as with a runner on third and one out.



    This is one of the stats that absolutely do not work in isolation.  The K/W rate is far more important than the K-rate.




    It seems lie no matter how many times you point out this obvious fact, fans will get down on K/BB star Napoli while supporting K/BB failure Middlebrooks...



    Notin, 

    If some fans are unhappy with Naps strikeout rate or Will Middlebrooks take in mind Stanton strikes out once in every three at bats. Do the Sox want a line up with both Naps and Stanton who both strikeout at a very high rate. The Sox need hitters with a bit more patience at the plate who can work the count and make pitchers work. On the plus side Stanton does walk a bit driving up his OBP.

    Just something to think about !!

    Hetch 



    Stanton strikes out once in every 3 ABs for his career high (31%).  

     

    Napoli was second in MLB last year at 32.4%, behind Chris Carter.   Stanton was 8th at 27.4%.  That is alot to have two hitters in the top 8,  but you have to remeober Stanton was 4th in BB% and Napoli was 12th.  So there is some good coming out of their at-bats even when they do not make contact.

     

    The Orioles did have 2 of the top 7 (Reynolds and Davis) before they waived Reynolds.  

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    How many Double Plays in a game, where runners are in Scoring Position. You get 2 Double Plays a game, but you strike out 10 times, whats the difference in Outs. Also, whats the chance a Fielder has a chance to make an error, a bobble, anything. Anytime Humans touch things more than once, expect mistakes. You Strike-out, you made the easiest out in Baseball.
    Sure your right its just one out, and Double Play gets you out of an inning...maybe. The more you make contact the better it is.
    Its all about the Situation, in a Ballgame. For me a Strikeout is a failure, you cant guide the ball, when you hit it.
    You can also hit into a Double Play and Score a run. Might be the difference in game.

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    How many Double Plays in a game, where runners are in Scoring Position. You get 2 Double Plays a game, but you strike out 10 times, whats the difference in Outs. Also, whats the chance a Fielder has a chance to make an error, a bobble, anything. Anytime Humans touch things more than once, expect mistakes. You Strike-out, you made the easiest out in Baseball.
    Sure your right its just one out, and Double Play gets you out of an inning...maybe. The more you make contact the better it is.
    Its all about the Situation, in a Ballgame. For me a Strikeout is a failure, you cant guide the ball, when you hit it.
    You can also hit into a Double Play and Score a run. Might be the difference in game.

     




    Yes if you look at it in a vaccuum.

     

    I will gladly take a hitter who strikes out alot if he walks alot.

     

    I do not like hitters who strike out alot and do not walk alot.  This has ALWAYS been the pro-Napoli / High K rate argument.   As JoeB says over and over and over, "it is all about the K/BB"

     

    Any talk of strikeouts is incomplete if there is also no mention of walks...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    How many Double Plays in a game, where runners are in Scoring Position. You get 2 Double Plays a game, but you strike out 10 times, whats the difference in Outs. Also, whats the chance a Fielder has a chance to make an error, a bobble, anything. Anytime Humans touch things more than once, expect mistakes. You Strike-out, you made the easiest out in Baseball.
    Sure your right its just one out, and Double Play gets you out of an inning...maybe. The more you make contact the better it is.
    Its all about the Situation, in a Ballgame. For me a Strikeout is a failure, you cant guide the ball, when you hit it.
    You can also hit into a Double Play and Score a run. Might be the difference in game.

     



    And really, you went and changed the question here.  The original question was "double plays" or "strikeouts."  It's unfair to bring errors and such in it.  We are no watching the play develop.  The doubloe play was a given, and there are no errors on a double play.   Yes, they cn and do happenb, but the question was not about that in the same way it was not about how batters who swing hard on strike three occasionaly connect and hit a home run.

     

    I mean, heck, occasionally strikeouts lead into double plays.  Now THAT is the worst of both worlds...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    Ok thanks Scott.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?


    Wrong thread.  And let's call him "Squealer."  It gives him a more playful and roly-poly image...

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to S5's comment:

    I'm sure that in this day of super-statistics someone somewhere has data on how many chances Naps has to GIDP but I don't have it. It's only my reasonable (?) opinion frrom watching nearly all the games this year that his K's many times gave the Sox an out they wouldn't have had if he'd made contact.

    Courtesy of BR, Napoli had 135 opportunities to GIDP, of which he did so 15 times. He ground into a DP 11% of his opportunities. The MLB average is 11%, so he is not grounding into double plays at an unusually high rate.

    While not striking out does not necessarily mean not making at out, it might mean at least making a productive out. Napoli made a productive out 21% of his chances. The MLB average was 32%, although that is skewed somewhat by the NL pitchers' sac bunts.

    To break it down further, with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs, Napoli was successful in driving the runner home 45% of his chances (MLB average 51%). With a runner on 2nd and no outs, Napoli was successful in advancing the runner to 3rd 47% of his chances (MLB average 56%).

    Napoli was still successful in plating 15% of his baserunners, which is slightly better than the MLB average of 14%, which again includes data for pitchers batting.

    All that said, I am a firm believer that a strikeout is not much worse than any other type of out.

    Here is the link to the stats page:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/napolmi01-bat.shtml#batting_situational::none

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    AFAIK Napoli was at the top, or near the top, in MLB for pitches per at-bat.  That made him an integral part of the Sox offensive strategy of driving up pitch counts and getting starters out of the game early.



    Napoli saw the most pitchers per plate appearance in MLB with 4.59.  The next closest batter was Carlos Santana 4.30, and the MLB average was 3.80.

    Full list here:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/sort/pitchesPerPlateAppearance/type/expanded

    The improvement in plate discipline and increase in OBP over last year's team was the biggest reason for this year's offensive success.  I was so frustrated last year at the number of games we played where the starting pitcher was still pitching into the 7th or 8th innings.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    It's not that simple.  Mike Napoli swings very hard and that is what causes a lot of the K's.  When he makes contact, he makes very hard contact and he hits booming home runs and doubles.  His overall production this year was just about what should have been expected. 

    There are certain situations where not striking out becomes much more important, such as with a runner on third and one out.



    Wow!.. Naps swings very hard?? Wow ! Do you know if it is a controled hard swing or a wild hard swing? Well, making solid contact does not mean swinging from your Azz. A real nice smooth swing right through the ball will make that ball travel . It has nothing ou to do with how hard you swing to get home runs. How smooth and solid contact will do. If you control your bat like Ortiz you can get more power and still maintain your  bat control. Nothing to do with how hard you swing as a reason you can strike out. Don't know why Naps strikes out so much but maybe he just guesses at pitch and lets it fly....Playing hit or miss....

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Is a K better than a double play?

    Although Naps had a career high in K's, he also had a career high in BB's.

     
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