Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:


    Ellsbury is a unique talent with speed to burn and a pretty good swing.  He led MLB in SB's with a high success rate while hitting around .300.  Good enough glove to be a finalist for a gold glove in CF.  But I honestly think Boras has Ellsbury convinced he can get what the Sox very unwisely gave to Carl Crawford--7 years, $140M or thereabouts.  Ells, good as he is (and he will be missed beyond question), is just not worth that kind of money.  For $20M X 7, you need a lot bigger bat. 



    Exactly, but for 20M x 7, you could get a combination of a lot of things over the course of seven years, and not necessarily a bigger bat.  You have more flexability to pick up whatever you need at the time.  Who knows what that may be three to seven years from now?  Heck, who knows what that may be next season after FA and trading have run their course, and then we see goes down with injuries once the season starts?

    The biggest drag on the Red Sox organization in 2012, in addition to Valentine, was not having the financial flexibility to address needs.  The Dodger dump took care of a lot of that.  I doubt that the organization wants to put so many eggs in one basket, unless it were a franchise player like Papi or elite pitcher before their prime years.

    Ellsbury is valuable, but he ain't exactly like Maury Wills was to the Dodgers in 1962 when one or two manufactured runs often made the difference in many games. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    There is also the possibility that the sox add some money to the budget.  Didn't the luxury tax rate reset for them this year because they snuck under the limit?  Relatively inexpensive to go over a little again.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    In response to The4040club's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to bigdog1's comment:


    If Ellsbury really wanted to stay he would have taken the 6/100 million contract.  I wish him luck in the future!  But no way do I go anymore than that!  Take the pick and move on and keep building.



    I agree.  Like paps, I think he just had his mind set on going ellswhere.

    That said, I think JBJ will be fine.  Not as good as Ells, but if he can be 75% of Ells, the $18M per that we save can cure a lot of ills.




    I agree and I doubt the sox are going to offer much more for Jacoby. 

    How do we know that JBJ will be fine? What has he done so far in "The Bigs" that makes that a certainty?


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    In response to trouts' comment:

    In response to The4040club's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to bigdog1's comment:


    If Ellsbury really wanted to stay he would have taken the 6/100 million contract.  I wish him luck in the future!  But no way do I go anymore than that!  Take the pick and move on and keep building.



    I agree.  Like paps, I think he just had his mind set on going ellswhere.

    That said, I think JBJ will be fine.  Not as good as Ells, but if he can be 75% of Ells, the $18M per that we save can cure a lot of ills.




    I agree and I doubt the sox are going to offer much more for Jacoby. 

    How do we know that JBJ will be fine? What has he done so far in "The Bigs" that makes that a certainty?




    We don't know if JBJ will be fine, and there is not an Ellsbury replacement.  The Red Sox will compensate elsewhere,  either picking up another center fielder, or picking up a corner outfielder and moving Victorino to center.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    Ellsbury makes the batters behind him better. This is not about stats, its what he does  to help rest of team.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    I don't see how they can think about letting him go without upgrading the offense in some other area. And doing that would cost Ellsbury money wouldn't it? 

    The argument against him is he was a non-factor in the World Series (4 runs, O stolen bases), and the Sox still won. 

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    Ellsbury hit .500 against Tampa, .318 against Detroit, .250 against Cards, but had no stolen bases. Sox as a team batted .211 against the Cards.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

    There is also the possibility that the sox add some money to the budget.  Didn't the luxury tax rate reset for them this year because they snuck under the limit?  Relatively inexpensive to go over a little again.



    It's Henry's call to go over the limit this winter or not. We lose a lot of salary after 2014, so it could reset itself quickly, however, we lose Papi, Lester and other important players after 2014 that may cost a whole lot to fill.

    I have done an extensive payroll budget analysis and estimated that after all the arbs and the pension payment, our budget will be around $156-159M. The luxury limit has been raised to $189M for 2014. That leaves us about $30-33M to spend.

    We can dump some salary via trade (Dempster?) or non-tendering some players (Bailey?), but assuming no changes, $32M is not much to fill the 4-5 slots open for 2014:

    C

    CF

    1B

    SS/3B

    RP

    We will certainly fill 1 or more of these slots with in-house solutions, but we should sign 3-4 free agents minimum. If we spend $18-21M a year on Ellsbury, that would really restrict our options at C and 1B (assuming we go with Bogey and Middy at SS and 3B) and add nobody to the pen.

    We will have to let Ellsbury go, or go over the luxury limit, or appear to decline on paper for 2014.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    Ellsbury is going to FA regardless of what the Sox offer.  He hired Boras for a reason.

    if Drew gets $14 million, then how much is Ellsbury worth?  Ells is at least 50% more of a player than Drew.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxFanInIL. Show SoxFanInIL's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury


    It really is cute to see the childlike innocence of those who still think there is .000000001% chance that Ellsbury would even consider signing in Boston again, and think there isn't even less of a chance that he would offer some sort of "discount"  (LOL) based on some unseen allegiance to the team or the city.

    It's adorable, really.  Like puppies on Christmas with little bows.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from miscricket. Show miscricket's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    Six years and 100 million is not low balling.  I doubt Ellsbury will be back next season...and if he's not I wish him luck but I am not a fan of overpaying.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:

    In response to SoxFanInIL's comment:


    It really is cute to see the childlike innocence of those who still think there is .000000001% chance that Ellsbury would even consider signing in Boston again, and think there isn't even less of a chance that he would offer some sort of "discount"  (LOL) based on some unseen allegiance to the team or the city.

    It's adorable, really.  Like puppies on Christmas with little bows.



    Of course he would come back to Boston...if the Sox offered him the biggest contract. Why wouldn't he?



    Would he come back if we offered the same or $1M less?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Is It Really Smart of the Sox to Low-Ball Ellsbury

    In response to djcbuffum's comment:

    In response to SoxFanInIL's comment:


    It really is cute to see the childlike innocence of those who still think there is .000000001% chance that Ellsbury would even consider signing in Boston again, and think there isn't even less of a chance that he would offer some sort of "discount"  (LOL) based on some unseen allegiance to the team or the city.

    It's adorable, really.  Like puppies on Christmas with little bows.



    Of course he would come back to Boston...if the Sox offered him the biggest contract. Why wouldn't he?



    Exactly right.  The problem the Red Sox have isn't in how much they're willing to pay him.  They've already made a generous (IMO) offer of $100M, and since that was a first offer I have to believe that they've got a few more bucks in their pockets to pay him if the situation presents itself.

    The Red Sox have two other problems.  The first is whether he wants to come back to Boston.  IMO while he's probably not getting all giddy over it at the same time he will for the right money.

    The second and bigger problem is how much someone else will pay him.  $100M is a lot of money to pay for one position and a lot of teams can't do that.  Of those who can, how many are going to pay enough more to lure him away from a championship team AND give up a draft pick. 

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ellsbury found out that his ceiling is $105-$110, and the Sox might match that.  One feeling I'm not getting is that Ells is going to do what Papelbon did and just sign with someone else without seeing if there's a better offer coming from Boston.

     
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