In response to Joebreidey's comment:
They "hid" it until they knew what was wrong, then dl'd him. Lester has not been dl'd yet. There is no reason to say hes going Tuesday if there was something as drastic as Bailey going on. And if it was someting like "tightness in his lower back" they would say so. My gosh, theyve done that a hundred times. They didnt come out on Bailey because it was serious, and wanted to get it right before announcing it. Bottom line is, I dont trust Jon Lester healthy or injured, and wouldnt be too surprised if he gets rocked Tuesday even though hes in perfect health.
Yup, I doubt they'd be starting him Tuesday if something was seriously wrong. There is nothing in his pitch count or his history to suggest something is wrong. There is always a possibility that his arm just fell off, and they are covering it up until they make a trade, but someone is starting on sunday and on Tuesday. It isn't like he's missing a start and it isn't like he came out of a game early.
My hypothesis is-
1-He has 125.2 IPs, while Dempster, Lackey, and Doubront are between 105-110. Perhaps they would like to lessen the differential.
2-Perhaps they are starting to feel a bit more comfortable with their playoff expectations, and would prefer to see a slightly less worn-down Lester in October.
3-Perhaps they see the 2nd place Rays, 2.5 back, as being a bigger threat than the NYY, being 7 back.
4-Perhaps they decided a week ago that, if they beat the NYY in the first game of the series, they'd flip Dempster and Lester to face the more proximate threat.
Question-Does anyone see the NYY as a bigger threat than the Rays? And, if not, does it not make more sense to start Lester v the Rays than the Yankees?
This morning Rays are 1.5 back the Yankees 6.