Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Zetterberg80. Show Zetterberg80's posts

    Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    I have seen a lot of people talking about how they are not too upset about losing Crawford and Beckett, but they are upset about losing Gonzalez.

    And while I do agree that Gonzalez is probably the likeliest of those guys to put up good production, I am really not sure losing his production is really as catastrophic as people are making it out to be.

    Over his last 190+ games with the Red Sox, Gonzalez hit 25 home runs and posted an OPS under .850. So for a pretty significant sample size, he was not even close to the 40-home run, 1.000 OPS guy we thought he could be in Boston.

    The production we've gotten for the last 190+ games is similiar to what you could get from an Adam LaRoche-type hitter. And guys like him are signing 2-year, 15 million buck deals with options for third years -- not megabucks like Gonzalez.


     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from rightymclefty. Show rightymclefty's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    You know, I look at Laroche and the production he's had in his career.
    The Sox actually had him. He hit a couple of left field HRs in the short time they had him.
    Traded, inexplicably for a singles hitting 1st baseman.
    Laroche was relatively cheap and had a good glove, too.
    Never understood that trade.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    I never really got that either.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from antiqueman1. Show antiqueman1's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    No, losing Agon is not that big of a deal even though he hit a 3 run dinger tonight in his first at bat. He was not the fit for Boston. And he was overpaid for his services for sure. To me, Youk was a better 1st basemen than Agon. Now the SOX have a chance to rebuild from the ground up instead of from the top down. THeo's mistakes are almost all gone. Can't wait to see how the SOX rebuild this team.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    Gonzo is not a singles hitter. He is a 35-30 homer 50 doubles 110 ribbie type player. Saying he is a singles hitter is an insult to a great talent.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Zetterberg80. Show Zetterberg80's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    Maybe Gonzalez does bounce back, but it is possible he goes the way of Mark Teixeira.

    When Texeira was first brought on with the Yankees in 2009, he had a monster year, posting a .948 OPS. His OPS in 2010 dropped 100 points and many Yankee fans attributed it to either just a case of a down year or bad luck.

    Since then, Texeira has basically been a .250 hitter, with an .830 or so OPS.

    Point being, just because Gonzalez is still fairly young does not mean he will ever get back to being a very elite hitter again. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    Gonzales is a good player, was a good player for the Sox and will be a good player for the Dodgers.

    The only thing was that his contract was too big and too long to probably make him as valuable in the last three years of that contract.

    Also, it took him to get the Dodgers to take both Crawford and Beckett (both guys needed a new home) and their salaries.

    Sometimes you have to give up some value to get value in return.  Getting two decent pitching prospects and financial flexibility was worth Gonzalez.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    At this point in AGon's career, it's no big deal at all.  As I posted elsewhere:

    AGon:

    2009:  Paid $3.125m, Fangraphs* value $28m
    2010:  Paid $4.875m, Fangraphs value $20.8m
    2011:  Paid $6.3m, Fangraphs value $29.5m
    2012:  Paid $21m, Fangraphs value $12.5 (so far)

    AGon used to be an extremely valuable player i.e. before he became fully priced. That $23m gap between pay and performance in 2011 is huge value and is one of the reasons the Sox were willing to deal good prospects for him rather than wait to compete for him in Free Agency.

    Now?  He's nowhere near as valuable as he was pre-2012 because he's fully priced now.  We lose AGon, we spend the money (hopefully wisely) elsewhere. 

    They only real "value" is pre-arb & (to a lesser degree) arb players and long term, lower-cost buyouts like Pedroia and Longoria....which is why it is extremely difficult and costly to acquire such players.


    * - like it or not, just treat it as a benchmark and follow the overall concept

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ergoetal. Show Ergoetal's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    As long as expectations are low -- meaning, others' expectations of him -- he'll do OK, I think.  That means he should do OK at LA because he's got other hitters around him, and they're likely to punish pitchers generally.

    But he's clearlty not a leader of any kind, so when the chips are down I don't want him coming up to bat, frankly. 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

       Not really  ..... Thank God we had him, Yes he is a good hitter/fielder, but it was his strong back & broad shoulders that saved the franchise and put Beckett$ & Crawford on his back and delivered them to the LEFT COAST !!!   Just brilliant !!!
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    Hands down best player on this team.  For starters, he is a superstar who shows up for work every day, averaging 160 games played for something like 6 seasons.  No Red Sox player in recent memory has done that.  A gold glove firstbaseman who this year saved a lot of outs and avoided errors on throws from infielders.  An rbi machine who leads the world in Avg with RISP.   Smart hitter who uses the whole field.  Willing to play RF if needed--incredible.

    Dingers down?  No quesion.  Overpaid?  Probably, but compared to Carl Crawford he is an absolute steal at $22M per year.  

    I think this was a smart deal by the Sox FO, but also think AGon was the crucial pot sweetener to make this deal go down. 

     
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    In Response to Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?:
    You know, I look at Laroche and the production he's had in his career. The Sox actually had him. He hit a couple of left field HRs in the short time they had him. Traded, inexplicably for a singles hitting 1st baseman. Laroche was relatively cheap and had a good glove, too. Never understood that trade.
    Posted by rightymclefty


    i think that laRouche trade was the start of theo's demise....done for no reason....after that is was all downhill for the most part with his moves
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    In Response to Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?:
    You know, I look at Laroche and the production he's had in his career. The Sox actually had him. He hit a couple of left field HRs in the short time they had him. Traded, inexplicably for a singles hitting 1st baseman. Laroche was relatively cheap and had a good glove, too. Never understood that trade.
    Posted by rightymclefty

    They traded him for a player undercontract so they could trade him in the offseason. Remember they acquired LaRoche before they acquired Martinez.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    In Response to Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?:
    No, losing Agon is not that big of a deal even though he hit a 3 run dinger tonight in his first at bat. He was not the fit for Boston. And he was overpaid for his services for sure. To me, Youk was a better 1st basemen than Agon. Now the SOX have a chance to rebuild from the ground up instead of from the top down. THeo's mistakes are almost all gone. Can't wait to see how the SOX rebuild this team.
    Posted by antiqueman1


    You must be an antique, your dimentia is showing! Clearly you are not playing with a full deck.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    yes without question it is a big deal, as he is someone who will be really difficult to replace. beckett can be replaced, crawford never fit in the first place and could replace (perhaps justin upton?). But the question becomes, how do you replace gonzo? true middle of the order bats are hard to find. plus on top of that, ortiz doesnt have many years left. so thats alot of offense to lose. looking at the free agent classes the next 2 years, not much available in terms of hitters. josh hamilton will be 32 when he hits free agency and has had health problems as well as off field ones. pitchers we could sign grienke as we would no doubt have the money with beckett and dice k off the books or we could go the trade route. I have a feeling the sox will trade for justin upton to replace crawford which i think would wise. so we would have

    ellsbury
    pedroia
    upton (trade)
    ortiz?
    middlebrooks
    kalish/ross
    loney?
    salty/lavarnway
    iglesias

    johnson (trade)
    lester
    garza (trade, perhaps doubront)
    buchholz
    de la rosa

    im not sure who else we could get in terms of hitters, maybe we could work out a mega deal with miam for johnson and stanton? david wright perhaps could interest the sox and then they could move middlebrooks to first. Another hitter who could be available and would be a good fit is carlos gonzalez. him and upton in the 3/4 spots would look pretty good imo. would the brewers trade braun? i guess we will have to wait and find out. things should get interesting for sure. 
     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from rightymclefty. Show rightymclefty's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    Braun and Stanton?
    I'm starting to like you, Carnie!
    Thing big! Why not?
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    In Response to Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?:
    Maybe Gonzalez does bounce back, but it is possible he goes the way of Mark Teixeira. When Texeira was first brought on with the Yankees in 2009, he had a monster year, posting a .948 OPS. His OPS in 2010 dropped 100 points and many Yankee fans attributed it to either just a case of a down year or bad luck. Since then, Texeira has basically been a .250 hitter, with an .830 or so OPS. Point being, just because Gonzalez is still fairly young does not mean he will ever get back to being a very elite hitter again. 
    Posted by Zetterberg80


    Adrian is a much better hitter than Tex as he proved by his stats since joining/ playing a lot of games in the AL east.  Tex tailed off very quickly after facing the same challenge.

    Yes, OBP guys who can hit to all fields are not that easy to lose, especially if Papi also leaves.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from juniorfalcon19. Show juniorfalcon19's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    in a word: yes
     
  20. This post has been removed.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    Losing AGon is a big deal.

    Losing his $22M contract is a big deal too.

    Nearly equal depending on if and how we spend the $22M going forward.

    Losing CC and Josh more than cancels out any negative net we get from losing AGon and his deal.

    I'd have been happy with this deal if no prospects were given in return, but we got a couple nice ones.

    Laughing
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    Hitters can be streaky, and Gonzalez was in a slump (for him) for much of the early part of the season.  His totals this year will be low for him for sure.  But he's been on target since mid-june, posting a batting average over .350 and an OPS over .950.  

    In contrast, Josh Hamilton had a monster first half of the year, but since mid June, he's hit .240 with a .775 OPS
     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    - He was a bad fit in Boston
    - Although he's one of the better hitters in the game, he was overpaid.  You can always find solid 1B that can give you .270, 25 HR and 75-80 RBI for less than a quarter of what A-Gon as making. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?

    In Response to Re: Is losing Gonzalez really that big of a deal?:
    [QUOTE]Maybe Gonzalez does bounce back, but it is possible he goes the way of Mark Teixeira.


    Maybe  he bounces back?
     
      He hit fewer HRs ...

      But his lifetime BA is .294, as a Red Sox he hit .321  --- how did he fails?

       His 117 RBIs last year was second best in his career and almost 20 higher than his seasonal numbers --- how did he fail?

       Singles hitter?  75 extra base hits out of 213 last year ..... SEVENTY FIVE, including three triples.

      This year? With an offense that was made up of red cross assisted players, he had 53 extra base hits and was on pace for another 113 RBIs .....


       yup, clearly, Adrian was a failure.

          Sorry, but you are a full fledged chump if that is what you think.

     
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