Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    In response to slomag's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Ellsbury won a Gold Glove at Centerfield. Not an easy thing to do. Remember this is at the Major Leagues not Pawtucket.

     

     

     

     

     



    Jeter's won five.  GGs are kind of a joke.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    They are not kind of a joke. Jeter won his because of his reputation and overall ability. Others were more deserving. That does not make the award a joke. In 2011 , Ellsbury did not commit a single error, while leading A.L. outfielders in putouts and making numerous highlight reel catches. He fully deserved the gold glove. You may not like it , but it is true. It was not a joke. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Well, the FO thinks Bradley's the better fielder, so if Ellsbury gets points for defense, it's only more fuel for the argument that other teams will need him more than we do.

     

     

     

     

     

     




    Did you talk to someone in the FO? Kind of a bold statement sice there have been no reports saying this. Unless of course I missed in, in which case you can post a link to it. Otherwise you would have to have talked to someone directly on the inside to make a statement like this.

     

     

     



     

    http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/02/16/red-sox-prospect-jackie-bradley-jr-and-art-fie

    That commitment has paid off in jaw-dropping fashion. Talent evaluators inside and outside theRed Sox organization believe that the 2011 supplemental first-round pick has a chance to be a Gold Glove center fielder, thanks to his incredible routes, a seemingly impeccable radar for the baseball and a powerful throwing arm. He will not be confused for a burner any time soon, but his direct path to the ball permits Bradley to move with an exceptional efficiency that can render his outfield neighbors irrelevant, as right fielder Bryce Brentz learned while playing right field in Portland.

    Remember - Ellsbury was moved to LF for Mike Cameron in 2010.

     




    Ok, that doesnt say anywhere that they think hes better than Ellsbury, but that hes a great prospect that has a chance to be a GG CF and a solid all around ballplayer. I would agree with that. Its not comparing him to Ellsbury at all. You said the FO thinks JBJ is a better fielder and this article doesnt back that up.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    In response to jackbu's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

    Maybe but he won one. Centerfield is all about speed, not arm. You need to cover ground. I remember growing up Paul Blair, dude could run. One of the best ever. Addequate arm like Ells. Nobody hit Homeplate 400 feet away. Catching the ball is the difference.

     




    ^^This^^

     

    I just talked to a good friend who was a ballplayer and said almost the same thing. CF is not so much about arm strength, thats usually for a corner OF'er. Speed and defensive ability trumps arm in CF any day of the week. heres what he told me...

    "Centerfielders are hired to run down fly balls not to throw people out.  A strong arm in center is a bonus.  The reason is that centerfielders rarely throw from balls hit directly at them or nearly so. They usually chase down hits to their left or to their right, making it unlikely that they will throw the runner out at third or at the plate. OTOH,  many more balls are hit almost directly at corner outfielders, who are not moving laterally but forwards in preparation to make a throw. There is a good reason why the best arm is put in right -- to discourage the runner from going from first third.  If a ball is hit even ten feet or so to the side of a centerfielder, he'll never throw the runner out at third. If the choice for centerfield is between the fly hawk and the cannon, the fly hawk wins."

     

     

     



    Boston fans have just grown use to centerfielders with bad arms.  In Jacoby's case he does everything else so well, he gets a pass on the bad arm.  If by chance Jacoby leaves, Boston fans are going to pass the love right along to JBJ when they really get a good look at his arm strength.

     

     

     




    No, some of us understand that having a big arm in CF isnt the top priority is all. Its a bonus like I clearly stated. You claimed he was faster than Ells at one point. Hes clearly not faster. Hes a very good CF'er with GG potential. No denying that. But hes NOT better than Ellsbury right now. He hasnt proved anything in MLB yet. When he does, then we can have the discussion about who is better.

     

     
  3. This post has been removed.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Ellsbury won a Gold Glove at Centerfield. Not an easy thing to do. Remember this is at the Major Leagues not Pawtucket.

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Jeter's won five.  GGs are kind of a joke.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    They are not kind of a joke. Jeter won his because of his reputation and overall ability. Others were more deserving. That does not make the award a joke. In 2011 , Ellsbury did not commit a single error, while leading A.L. outfielders in putouts and making numerous highlight reel catches. He fully deserved the gold glove. You may not like it , but it is true. It was not a joke. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Well, the FO thinks Bradley's the better fielder, so if Ellsbury gets points for defense, it's only more fuel for the argument that other teams will need him more than we do.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




    Did you talk to someone in the FO? Kind of a bold statement sice there have been no reports saying this. Unless of course I missed in, in which case you can post a link to it. Otherwise you would have to have talked to someone directly on the inside to make a statement like this.

     

     

     

     

     



     

     

    http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/02/16/red-sox-prospect-jackie-bradley-jr-and-art-fie

    That commitment has paid off in jaw-dropping fashion. Talent evaluators inside and outside theRed Sox organization believe that the 2011 supplemental first-round pick has a chance to be a Gold Glove center fielder, thanks to his incredible routes, a seemingly impeccable radar for the baseball and a powerful throwing arm. He will not be confused for a burner any time soon, but his direct path to the ball permits Bradley to move with an exceptional efficiency that can render his outfield neighbors irrelevant, as right fielder Bryce Brentz learned while playing right field in Portland.

    Remember - Ellsbury was moved to LF for Mike Cameron in 2010.

     

     




    Ok, that doesnt say anywhere that they think hes better than Ellsbury, but that hes a great prospect that has a chance to be a GG CF and a solid all around ballplayer. I would agree with that. Its not comparing him to Ellsbury at all. You said the FO thinks JBJ is a better fielder and this article doesnt back that up.

     




    The Red Sox named Bradley the minor-league defensive player of the year in 2012.  That's across the entire organization at all minor-league levels, and included Jose Iglesias.  They thought Bradley was a better CF than Iglesias was a SS.

    In contrast, after watching Ellsbury play CF for a full year for the first time in 2009,  they signed a 37-year-old to play the position in 2010.

    That says more than any quote could.

     

     
  5. This post has been removed.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    My estimates put next year's payroll budget, after arb signings, at...

    So, basically our luxury tax budget will be between $119 and $130M depending on Lester, plus the player pension ($11.1M?) and the Dodger payment of $6.9M for 2014. 

    The final number will be about:

     

    $149M without Lester

     

    $162M with Lester 

    If we stay under the luxury tax limit, that would leave us with this about to spend:

    $40M without Lester

    $27M with Lester

    If we assume Boggy is our FT SS or 3Bman next year, then one slot is filled. If we feel secure enough leaving 1B to Carp, Nava, Papi (NL Parks) and Middy, then another slot is filled with not much of a step down from Napoli. That leaves these slots to fill:

    CF: Bradley or FA (Ellsbury?)

    3B: Middlebrooks/Holt/Snyder or FA

    C: Ross/Lava/Vazquez or FA (McCann? Salty? Susuki?)

    RP: Several prospects or FA

     

    We could probably take Lester's option, sign Ellsbury ($17-18M/yr), and Salty ($9-10M/yr) and barely stay under the limit, however, we could not afford any relief pitchers or corner IF'ers without going over.

    If we let Lester go, we'd have more to spend, but another staff slot to fill. 

    We can also go over the cap this year, or don't sign Salty and spend the money elsewhere.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Ellsbury won a Gold Glove at Centerfield. Not an easy thing to do. Remember this is at the Major Leagues not Pawtucket.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Jeter's won five.  GGs are kind of a joke.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    They are not kind of a joke. Jeter won his because of his reputation and overall ability. Others were more deserving. That does not make the award a joke. In 2011 , Ellsbury did not commit a single error, while leading A.L. outfielders in putouts and making numerous highlight reel catches. He fully deserved the gold glove. You may not like it , but it is true. It was not a joke. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Well, the FO thinks Bradley's the better fielder, so if Ellsbury gets points for defense, it's only more fuel for the argument that other teams will need him more than we do.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




    Did you talk to someone in the FO? Kind of a bold statement sice there have been no reports saying this. Unless of course I missed in, in which case you can post a link to it. Otherwise you would have to have talked to someone directly on the inside to make a statement like this.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



     

     

     

     

    http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/02/16/red-sox-prospect-jackie-bradley-jr-and-art-fie

    That commitment has paid off in jaw-dropping fashion. Talent evaluators inside and outside theRed Sox organization believe that the 2011 supplemental first-round pick has a chance to be a Gold Glove center fielder, thanks to his incredible routes, a seemingly impeccable radar for the baseball and a powerful throwing arm. He will not be confused for a burner any time soon, but his direct path to the ball permits Bradley to move with an exceptional efficiency that can render his outfield neighbors irrelevant, as right fielder Bryce Brentz learned while playing right field in Portland.

    Remember - Ellsbury was moved to LF for Mike Cameron in 2010.

     

     

     

     




    Ok, that doesnt say anywhere that they think hes better than Ellsbury, but that hes a great prospect that has a chance to be a GG CF and a solid all around ballplayer. I would agree with that. Its not comparing him to Ellsbury at all. You said the FO thinks JBJ is a better fielder and this article doesnt back that up.

     

     

     

     

     




     

     

    The Red Sox named Bradley the minor-league defensive player of the year in 2012.  That's across the entire organization at all minor-league levels, and included Jose Iglesias.  They thought Bradley was a better CF than Iglesias was a SS.

    In contrast, after watching Ellsbury play CF for a full year for the first time in 2009,  they signed a 37-year-old to play the position in 2010.

    That says more than any quote could.

     

     




    Signing Cam was theos idea and theo is gone. It was an obvious mistake on Theos part. It may say something in 2010, but in 2013 I still havent heard or seen the FO say that JBJ is better than Ells. Its silly to say that anyway because JBJ has proved nothing in MLB yet. Once he does, then we can talk about it.

     

    make no mistake, I think JBJ will be a solid MLB player. Im sure the FO think the same thing. I just wouldnt say with such conviction that they think a kid who has done nothing in MLB is better than their current GG CF'er without showing something with them directly saying that.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    In response to jackbu's comment:

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Ellsbury won a Gold Glove at Centerfield. Not an easy thing to do. Remember this is at the Major Leagues not Pawtucket.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Jeter's won five.  GGs are kind of a joke.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    They are not kind of a joke. Jeter won his because of his reputation and overall ability. Others were more deserving. That does not make the award a joke. In 2011 , Ellsbury did not commit a single error, while leading A.L. outfielders in putouts and making numerous highlight reel catches. He fully deserved the gold glove. You may not like it , but it is true. It was not a joke. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Well, the FO thinks Bradley's the better fielder, so if Ellsbury gets points for defense, it's only more fuel for the argument that other teams will need him more than we do.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




    Did you talk to someone in the FO? Kind of a bold statement sice there have been no reports saying this. Unless of course I missed in, in which case you can post a link to it. Otherwise you would have to have talked to someone directly on the inside to make a statement like this.

     

     

     

     

     

     



     

     

     

    http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/02/16/red-sox-prospect-jackie-bradley-jr-and-art-fie

    That commitment has paid off in jaw-dropping fashion. Talent evaluators inside and outside theRed Sox organization believe that the 2011 supplemental first-round pick has a chance to be a Gold Glove center fielder, thanks to his incredible routes, a seemingly impeccable radar for the baseball and a powerful throwing arm. He will not be confused for a burner any time soon, but his direct path to the ball permits Bradley to move with an exceptional efficiency that can render his outfield neighbors irrelevant, as right fielder Bryce Brentz learned while playing right field in Portland.

    Remember - Ellsbury was moved to LF for Mike Cameron in 2010.

     

     




    Ok, that doesnt say anywhere that they think hes better than Ellsbury, but that hes a great prospect that has a chance to be a GG CF and a solid all around ballplayer. I would agree with that. Its not comparing him to Ellsbury at all. You said the FO thinks JBJ is a better fielder and this article doesnt back that up.

     

     




     

    The Red Sox named Bradley the minor-league defensive player of the year in 2012.  That's across the entire organization at all minor-league levels, and included Jose Iglesias.  They thought Bradley was a better CF than Iglesias was a SS.

    In contrast, after watching Ellsbury play CF for a full year for the first time in 2009,  they signed a 37-year-old to play the position in 2010.

    That says more than any quote could.

     

     




    Thanks, I love it.

    What I keep saying is:  the only balls getting over JBJ's head are the homers.

    Southpaw:  If you are going to accuse me of saying something, please copy and paste the comment.  Please don't turn into Fourb's.

     




    I got you and my conversation with slomag mixed together and I apologize for that. I was posting replies to both of you and got mixed up. Slomag was the one who said the FO thinks JBJ is better, not you.

    I dont have the time nor the energy to go back and forth making empty accusations like 4B's and you do. If I make a mistake, I will own it and move on. This is one of those times.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    When healthy, Peavy has been as good as Hernandez over the past 2 years.  I don't use WAR in that analysis because Peavy has not been completely healthy, and WAR is an aggregate stat.  WAR depends on your health.  WAR depends on whether you're left in the game for 140 pitches / night.  IMO WHIP is the best stat for measuring pitching efficiency, and OPS hitting efficiency.  Everything I've written is consistent with that.

     

    If you love WAR, that's fine - you can think Hernandez is twice as good as Peavy, or three or four times if you really want to - but how can you in all honesty mock the idea that the Sox have the young talent to get anybody in the game?

    And if you do love an advanced metric like WAR, are you really dumb enough to then judge a prospect we are all excited about, and who has had by all intelligent measures a great year, solely on his ERA?

    We don't need to go any more into this - I like debating and I like to call BS when I think someone isn't being above-board, but I respect your baseball knowledge and the thought behind your posts.  I probably should have just left well enough alone.

    I value WAR, but not as much as hill.

    I get your points here, but the fact is the Sox did offer 5 nice prospects for Felix long ago and were turned down.

    On WAR and Felix and Jake, I'm OK with the 2 year sample size, but prefer to look at various sample sizes. Also, the injury history of Peavy is a big issue when determining value. Then there is years of team control. Peavy had 1.3 years of control. Felix has had more than that at times.

    I do think a WAR per game or IP might be a good stat for evaluating talent seperate from health and longevity. Here are some numbers:

    2012-2013:

            WAR   GS    IP   WAR/GS  prorate to 33 GS

    Felix  11.1  58  406   .191        6.3

    Jake   5.6  47  311    .119        3.9

     

    2009-2012:

             WAR   GS    IP

    Felix 22.4  134  954  .167       5.5

    Jake 11.4    83  535  .137      4.5

     

    2004-2012 (Peavy's first great year was 2004)

              WAR   GS    IP

    Felix  35.2  238  1620  .147    4.9

    Jake  32.4  233  1504  .139   4.6

     

    As you can see, from 2004 to today, they are pretty even per 33 starts. From 2009 to 2012, Felix had many more GS'd (51 in 4 years) and about a 22% higher WAR per start.) Since the start of 2012, Felix has only 9 more starts, but has clearly been way better by WAR per start... almost 65% better than Peavy.

    I'm not defending the use of WAR as an almost exclusive way of assigning value to a player, but it is what hill55 has used consistently for years. Felix is the top WAR SP since 2012. As far as I can see, no pitcher hs more WAR/GS than Felix and no pitcher has more GS'd than Felix. That's an awesome value. He's the best and the most/longest. Since 2010, only 6 pitchers have 91+ GS'd (Verlander, Wilson, Masterson, Kershaw, Shields and Felix). Felix is 3rd in WAR behind Verlander and Kershaw. Only 3 starters have 125 GS'd since 2010 (Felix, Verlander & Wilson). Only Verlander has a better WAR. Only 2 pitchers have 159+ GS'd since 2009 and only Verlander and C Lee have a higher WAR.

    Felix doesn't miss starts. Peavy does. Felix is a top 3 WAR per GS in almost any sample size time period you choose. Peavy is not, unless you go way back in time.

    Sox4ever

    I don't mean to take anything away from Hernandez - he's an elite pitcher having a great year.  But Peavy had a slightly better WAR than Felix last year (by baseball-reference scoring) and was holding his own prior to the rib injury - 1.02 WHIP, 2.97 ERA through his first 9 starts.

    I understand "If healthy" is a huge caveat for Peavy, but if healthy, I don't mind seeing him match up against anybody.  And a guy in Felix who is 27 but has 1800 ML innings under his belt, and is owed $25M+ for each of the next six years - any injury at all turrns the positive of team control into an albatross contract.  

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Ellsbury won a Gold Glove at Centerfield. Not an easy thing to do. Remember this is at the Major Leagues not Pawtucket.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Jeter's won five.  GGs are kind of a joke.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    They are not kind of a joke. Jeter won his because of his reputation and overall ability. Others were more deserving. That does not make the award a joke. In 2011 , Ellsbury did not commit a single error, while leading A.L. outfielders in putouts and making numerous highlight reel catches. He fully deserved the gold glove. You may not like it , but it is true. It was not a joke. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Well, the FO thinks Bradley's the better fielder, so if Ellsbury gets points for defense, it's only more fuel for the argument that other teams will need him more than we do.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




    Did you talk to someone in the FO? Kind of a bold statement sice there have been no reports saying this. Unless of course I missed in, in which case you can post a link to it. Otherwise you would have to have talked to someone directly on the inside to make a statement like this.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     


     

     

     

     

    http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/02/16/red-sox-prospect-jackie-bradley-jr-and-art-fie

    That commitment has paid off in jaw-dropping fashion. Talent evaluators inside and outside theRed Sox organization believe that the 2011 supplemental first-round pick has a chance to be a Gold Glove center fielder, thanks to his incredible routes, a seemingly impeccable radar for the baseball and a powerful throwing arm. He will not be confused for a burner any time soon, but his direct path to the ball permits Bradley to move with an exceptional efficiency that can render his outfield neighbors irrelevant, as right fielder Bryce Brentz learned while playing right field in Portland.

    Remember - Ellsbury was moved to LF for Mike Cameron in 2010.

     

     

     

     




    Ok, that doesnt say anywhere that they think hes better than Ellsbury, but that hes a great prospect that has a chance to be a GG CF and a solid all around ballplayer. I would agree with that. Its not comparing him to Ellsbury at all. You said the FO thinks JBJ is a better fielder and this article doesnt back that up.

     

     

     

     

     



     

     

    The Red Sox named Bradley the minor-league defensive player of the year in 2012.  That's across the entire organization at all minor-league levels, and included Jose Iglesias.  They thought Bradley was a better CF than Iglesias was a SS.

    In contrast, after watching Ellsbury play CF for a full year for the first time in 2009,  they signed a 37-year-old to play the position in 2010.

    That says more than any quote could.

     

     




    Signing Cam was theos idea and theo is gone. It was an obvious mistake on Theos part. It may say something in 2010, but in 2013 I still havent heard or seen the FO say that JBJ is better than Ells. Its silly to say that anyway because JBJ has proved nothing in MLB yet. Once he does, then we can talk about it.

     

    make no mistake, I think JBJ will be a solid MLB player. Im sure the FO think the same thing. I just wouldnt say with such conviction that they think a kid who has done nothing in MLB is better than their current GG CF'er without showing something with them directly saying that.



    Come on - you're capable of drawing reasonable conclusions.  Did the FO ever say "Jose Iglesias is a better SS defensively than Stephen Drew"?  

    No, they were just effusive in their praise of his defense, as were scouts and anybody watching him play.  

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    In response to slomag's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to slomag's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Ellsbury won a Gold Glove at Centerfield. Not an easy thing to do. Remember this is at the Major Leagues not Pawtucket.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Jeter's won five.  GGs are kind of a joke.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    They are not kind of a joke. Jeter won his because of his reputation and overall ability. Others were more deserving. That does not make the award a joke. In 2011 , Ellsbury did not commit a single error, while leading A.L. outfielders in putouts and making numerous highlight reel catches. He fully deserved the gold glove. You may not like it , but it is true. It was not a joke. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    Well, the FO thinks Bradley's the better fielder, so if Ellsbury gets points for defense, it's only more fuel for the argument that other teams will need him more than we do.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




    Did you talk to someone in the FO? Kind of a bold statement sice there have been no reports saying this. Unless of course I missed in, in which case you can post a link to it. Otherwise you would have to have talked to someone directly on the inside to make a statement like this.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/02/16/red-sox-prospect-jackie-bradley-jr-and-art-fie

    That commitment has paid off in jaw-dropping fashion. Talent evaluators inside and outside theRed Sox organization believe that the 2011 supplemental first-round pick has a chance to be a Gold Glove center fielder, thanks to his incredible routes, a seemingly impeccable radar for the baseball and a powerful throwing arm. He will not be confused for a burner any time soon, but his direct path to the ball permits Bradley to move with an exceptional efficiency that can render his outfield neighbors irrelevant, as right fielder Bryce Brentz learned while playing right field in Portland.

    Remember - Ellsbury was moved to LF for Mike Cameron in 2010.

     

     

     

     




    Ok, that doesnt say anywhere that they think hes better than Ellsbury, but that hes a great prospect that has a chance to be a GG CF and a solid all around ballplayer. I would agree with that. Its not comparing him to Ellsbury at all. You said the FO thinks JBJ is a better fielder and this article doesnt back that up.

     

     

     

     

     


     

     

    The Red Sox named Bradley the minor-league defensive player of the year in 2012.  That's across the entire organization at all minor-league levels, and included Jose Iglesias.  They thought Bradley was a better CF than Iglesias was a SS.

    In contrast, after watching Ellsbury play CF for a full year for the first time in 2009,  they signed a 37-year-old to play the position in 2010.

    That says more than any quote could.

     

     




    Signing Cam was theos idea and theo is gone. It was an obvious mistake on Theos part. It may say something in 2010, but in 2013 I still havent heard or seen the FO say that JBJ is better than Ells. Its silly to say that anyway because JBJ has proved nothing in MLB yet. Once he does, then we can talk about it.

     

    make no mistake, I think JBJ will be a solid MLB player. Im sure the FO think the same thing. I just wouldnt say with such conviction that they think a kid who has done nothing in MLB is better than their current GG CF'er without showing something with them directly saying that.

     



    Come on - you're capable of drawing reasonable conclusions.  Did the FO ever say "Jose Iglesias is a better SS defensively than Stephen Drew"?  

     

    No, they were just effusive in their praise of his defense, as were scouts and anybody watching him play.  

     




    No, because it was rather obvious that he was better than Drew. I just dont think its nearly as obvious that JBJ is better than Ells as Iggy is to most any MLB SS. Hey, I hope JBJ does turn out to be better because that means we will have an AS GG CF'er.

    I just dont care to put words in others mouths is all. I understand what your saying and I agree that JBJ is a great prospect.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    I don't mean to take anything away from Hernandez - he's an elite pitcher having a great year.  But Peavy had a slightly better WAR than Felix last year (by baseball-reference scoring) and was holding his own prior to the rib injury - 1.02 WHIP, 2.97 ERA through his first 9 starts.

    I understand "If healthy" is a huge caveat for Peavy, but if healthy, I don't mind seeing him match up against anybody.  And a guy in Felix who is 27 but has 1800 ML innings under his belt, and is owed $25M+ for each of the next six years - any injury at all turrns the positive of team control into an albatross contract.  

     

    I like Peavy, and when he is healthy, his numbers show he is a top 30 SP in MLB... maybe even top 15 when larger sample sizes are used.

    I wasn't defending hill's position as much as I was defending his consistent use of WAR as his measurement of value.

    I do not think Bourn is as good as Ellsbury, but he has been more healthy and consistent, is a great fielder, and has a better arm. I actually expected him to get more than $48M/4 after seeing BJ Upton get $75M/5. Although Ellsbury's health and consistency may always be a worry, he clearly has the ability to outperform Upton and Bourn. He will be rewarded for his projected performance. Some GMs may disagree over what his value is, and many cannot afford to even pursue Jacoby. I think there will be 4-7 teams with high interest in signing Ellsbury, but maybe only 2-3 will bid up as high as I expect it to go. I think the winning bid will be somewhere between $80M/5 and $95M/5 or $95M/6 and 115M/6. I suppose he could get over $20M per year, especially if he shines in the clutch to end the year.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    I don't mean to take anything away from Hernandez - he's an elite pitcher having a great year.  But Peavy had a slightly better WAR than Felix last year (by baseball-reference scoring) and was holding his own prior to the rib injury - 1.02 WHIP, 2.97 ERA through his first 9 starts.

     

    I understand "If healthy" is a huge caveat for Peavy, but if healthy, I don't mind seeing him match up against anybody.  And a guy in Felix who is 27 but has 1800 ML innings under his belt, and is owed $25M+ for each of the next six years - any injury at all turrns the positive of team control into an albatross contract.

     

    Go back to include Peavy's poor 2011 season and...

    out of 152 pitchers with 250+ IP (avg 5 per team):

    MLB Rank

    WAR

    25 Lester  8.9

    26 Peavy  8.8

    46 Demp  6.5

    59 Buchh  5.5

    77 Doub   4.3

    99 Lack    3.8

    ERA-

    27 Buchh  85

    46 Peavy  93

    61 Lester 100

    91 Demp  104

    94 Doub   105

    133 Lack  118

     

    WHIP

    20 Peavy  1.14

    55 Buchh  1.25

    99 Lester  1.33

    116 Demp 1.37

    132 Lack   1.44

    135 Doub  1.45

     

    Not counting his last start (2012-2013):

    Peavy:

    22 in WAR at 5.8

    24 in ERA- at 85

    9th in WHIP at 1.10

     

    If the top 30 pitchers in MLb can be labelled a number 1 starter, then Peavy looks to be a clear #1... by the numbers.

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    My projected 2014 40 man Roster (41 with Kalish on 60 Day DL):

    SP: Lester, Buchholz, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey, Dempster, Britton, Webster,

          Workman, Ranaudo

    RP: Free Agent, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Morales, Miller, Thornton, Bailey,  

          de la Rosa, Wilson, de la Torre, Beato, Villarreal

    C: Free Agent, Ross, Lava, Vazquez

    1B: Free Agent, Carp

    2B: Pedroia

    3B: Free Agent, Middlebrooks, Cecchini

    SS: Bogaerts, Holt

    OF: Free Agent, Victorino, Nava, Gomes, Bradley, Brentz, Kalish (60 Day DL)

     

    Gone somehow: Bard, Wright, Butler, Snyder, & Hassan

    Taken by Rule 5: de la Cruz & Vinicio

    We may sign only 4 free agents and keep one of the above. We could also make a 2 or 3 for 1 trade that would allow us to keep some of the bubble players. For example, trade Brentz, Lava, and Villarreal for player to fill a "free agent" slot listed in red above. That would allow us to protect de la Cruz and maybe Snyder or Hassan.

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    It's so tiring when Ellsbury is described as "injury prone" or similar.  He's suffered two serious, unrelated injuries during his 6 full seasons (including 2013) ruining two seasons for him.  He's played 110 of 120 games this year and in 3 other seasons played 145, 153 and 158 games.

    This is not a guy perpetually pulling a hammy, he suffered two unlucky collisions.  That is not injury prone.

    If in both 2010 and 2012 he'd suffered two car crashes on the way to Fenway limiting him to 18 and 74 games, respectively, would you call him "injury prone"?

     
  16. This post has been removed.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jozee76. Show jozee76's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    How about that first run that was scored. That was difference in game. Should have never gone to 10th.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    How about that first run that was scored. That was difference in game. Should have never gone to 10th.




    Vic should have never thrown that to 3b. No way he was getting Davis on that throw. Sometimes it's just better to hold on to the ball. A couple cheap runs for sure.

    Speaking of Davis, he stole 2 XBH from Drew last night in the later innings. Hes been giving this team headaches.

    IRT my opinion on Ellsbury's possible contract, Id go as high as 16-17M for 5 years and maybe a 6th vesting option year based on games played the previous 2 years. Maybe some possible performance bonuses to get it to 17M per. But Id definitely get a little creative with it.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Is time to give Ellsbury a 4 year deal for 60M?

    FanGraphs columnist Paul Swyden examines the market for Jacoby Ellsbury:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-early-look-at-jacoby-ellsburys-potential-suitors/

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share