Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............
posted at 3/5/2013 11:18 PM EST
Then we're even: I don't see how you can see us as having a significantly better chance of making the playoffs over the Yanks, Rays, Angels, Tigers, A's, Rangers, or a slightly better chance than the Jays, White Sox, Mariners, and maybe even the Royals.
There are 6 teams clearly better than us and another 4 just as good. If you like those odds, let's sit down for a game of poker sometime soon, ok?
I'm not saying we can't win, but even when a team like the 2012 O's make it, how far can they realistically go?
We'd need just about every player to meet or exceed expaectations. I know that's "why we play the games", but asking me to profess false hope in the form of a factual position is not something I have ever done. I'm not about to start now, sorry.
I wouldn't bet on the Sox at 100:1 odds, not even a dollar.
(BTW, even if you gave us an equal chance to win the AL East as everyone else, I'd call a 20% chance pretty close to "slim".)
Wow....100-1....even Vegas will only give you 30-1 on the Sox winning the WS, and less than that of course on winning the pennant. I am surprised you are that Pessimistic. I agree the Sox need players to meet or exceed expectations, but so due everybody, at least when it comes to their key 4 or 5 players. If Johnson, Dickey, Buerhle and Bautista dont meet expectations, does Toronto have any shot of winning the WS?
1) I'm pretty stingy with my money, so saying I wouldn't bet a dollar on the Sox at 100:1 odds is not as big a deal as it might be for most people. I wouldn't bet a dollar on the Jays at 100: either, but if I was forced to bet on the Sox or the Jays, I'd take the Jays.
2) I'd Take the Tigers, Angels, Rays and A's at 50:1 or less. I'd take the Yanks and Rangers at 60:1 or so. I'd take the Jays and White Sox over the Sox chances, but it is close, and I won't argue with anyone who says we will do better than them.
3) When you have 5 slots for the playoffs, 6 teams with a significantly better chance than us, 2 teams with slightly better, and 2 more with about the same (KC & Sea), I'd say the odds are very low. I'm not giving the O's much of a shot, but they have a good GM and manager and played well last year.
4) If the Vegas odds are 30:1, I'd certainly give anyone 40:1 odds. Maybe I should open a 1-800-BET-N-SOX line and give all you guys 31:1 odds.
5) I'm not as high on the Jays as many here are, so if you want to discuss who I think will hold us back, it's the Rays. I still think the Yanks will be better than us, but with all the injuries, aging players, and pending suspensions, that might change. However, the players you mentioned (Dickey, Buehrle, and Bautista have a better shot of meeting expectations than Lackey, Dempster, and Napoli. I look at it more like this: R Romero is their 5 starter. What if he meets 2012 expectations? Watch out! The Jays had a nice core of players last year, some got hurt, some underperformed, and if they come back, it could get scary with all the additions adding to that.
Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Johnson, & Romero.
Bautista, Reyes, Encarnacion, Cabrera, Rasmus, Lind, Lawrie, Davis, Izturus, Arenciba and more... The more I think of it, maybe some of you guys are right to really fear this team in 2012.