Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............
posted at 3/4/2013 11:51 PM EST
I just have to chuckle at how many posters here say these guys have little or no trade value, but then think this team will make the playoffs by being led by the same very same players "with little value".
Either these guys are not likely to have a good season, so the have little trade value, or they have a good chance of having a good season and should then have good trad value. You guys can't have it both ways.
I get the "don't trade when the stock is low" argument, but there comes a time when you have to weigh what the value of keeping a stock is worth vs the value of trading it. The potential for a 2013 rise in value is keeping many here from wanting to sell low on Ellsbury, Bard and Aceves, but if their chances are really that good that they rebound for a good year, than some Gm somewhere should feel the same way and make a decent offer for them, right?
Yes, Jacoby's value was highest after 2011, but that still does not mean that we should never think of trading him, because his value is no longer at its highest point or even near it. Part of the equation is how much of a chance do we have to win it all this year. If you can bring yourself to just pretend we have no chance or a very long shot chance, then think about what baseball value Ellsbury brings to us in 2013. Forget about the money assoiciated with high viewership, and think just baseball. If jacoby bats .330 with 40 Hrs and 130 RBIs, but we finish 20 games out, what value did he bring to our club, and more importantly out outlook beyond 2013? His future value is found only in the likely comp draft choice when he bolts and refuses the qualifying offer. So his value is in doubt depending on how you view our chances this year, but the draft pick is a constant value although unknown as well (could be great/could be a bust).
So, looking beyond 2013, the choice is:
A comp draft pick in 2014 of questionable value, but still highly sought after by many teams. (If we trade Ellsbury before the season, the team getting him gets the draft pick value and 1 year of Ellsbury, presummably with a better chance to win in 2013 than us.)
A prospect or two of perhaps better known future outlook(s) due to some exposure to professional baseball at the farm level.
One would have to think the prospect(s) received would likely turn out better than the draft choice. This makes our 2014 and beyond future brighter, in theory, but lessens our chances to win in 2013. Again, it comes back to what you think our chances are in 2013. If trading Ellsbury lessens our chances from 1% to 0.5%, is it worth it? How about from 8% to 5%? 6% to 3%? 9% to 3%? Is there any scenario where some of you guys see the value of trading him now?
I know that if he is having an MVP type year, he may be worth more at the deadline, even without the attached draft pick, but that is a huge gamble to take. Personally, I think a GM would and should value 6 months of Ellsbury plus the draft a lot more than 2 months of Ellsbury with no draft choice... even a red hot Ellsbury.
The market might be very limited at this point, but one key OF injury to a contender could change all that. We'll see. The market for that comp draft pick has a high value right now as well. It helps soften the blow of losing Jacoby after one year, and justify hurting your farm by adding to it in the 2014 draft.