It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

     

    I'm confused  ... so we don't want Ellsbury anymore?

     



    He's walking after this year. I put the odds at 98%.

     

    Why not help our longterm future instead of shooting for a 3rd or 4th place finish instead of 4th or 5th?

     



    Why is the AL East so unwinnable?

     

     

    Every team has weaknesses.Toronto won the offseason, but if not for the Sox white flag trade they were a last place team last year.  And they bolstered their team with a bunch of other guys who did come in last, and. suddenly they are a powerhouse...

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

     

    I'm confused  ... so we don't want Ellsbury anymore?

     



    He's walking after this year. I put the odds at 98%.

     

    Why not help our longterm future instead of shooting for a 3rd or 4th place finish instead of 4th or 5th?

     



    Why is the AL East so unwinnable?

     

     

    Every team has weaknesses.Toronto won the offseason, but if not for the Sox white flag trade they were a last place team last year.  And they bolstered their team with a bunch of other guys who did come in last, and. suddenly they are a powerhouse...




    Winning the offseason is overrated. It's almost like no one around here remembers 2011 and the best team ever.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

     

    The 2009 NY Yankees won the offseason and the World Series.

    Like the Red Sox, the Blue Jays dealt with a lot of injuries.  They lost three of their starters in a four-day span and lost Bautista to a season-ending wrist injury.  Before Bautista went down, the Blue Jays were second in runs scored behind the Yankees.  

    Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson, and Bonifacio were not the reasons why the Marlins finished in last place.  They are fine additions to the Blue Jays and Dickey is icing on the cake.  

    I believe Toronto is the favorite to win the AL East with the Red Sox earning a wild card berth.  

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    The only trade I make that would include 3 of these 4 would also include Lackey or Dubie for a SP upgrade.  That is really our primary weakness on this team for the next 2-3 years.  A Matt Cain type sure would solidify this team I think, even if it cost a Jake, Aceves, Dubie and Salty.  Would hope an OF would come back in that deal as well.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    Bradley is not ready this year, but he may very well be ready next year.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

    The only trade I make that would include 3 of these 4 would also include Lackey or Dubie for a SP upgrade.  That is really our primary weakness on this team for the next 2-3 years.  A Matt Cain type sure would solidify this team I think, even if it cost a Jake, Aceves, Dubie and Salty.  Would hope an OF would come back in that deal as well.



    You're not getting a Matt Cain type for a package like that. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

     

    I'm confused  ... so we don't want Ellsbury anymore?

     



    He's walking after this year. I put the odds at 98%.

     

    Why not help our longterm future instead of shooting for a 3rd or 4th place finish instead of 4th or 5th?

     



    No, I understand that. Was just making a dig that I guess was too subtle.

     



    Sometimes it's hard to read subtle on the internet.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

     

    I'm confused  ... so we don't want Ellsbury anymore?

     



    He's walking after this year. I put the odds at 98%.

     

    Why not help our longterm future instead of shooting for a 3rd or 4th place finish instead of 4th or 5th?

     



    Why is the AL East so unwinnable?

     

     

    Every team has weaknesses.Toronto won the offseason, but if not for the Sox white flag trade they were a last place team last year.  And they bolstered their team with a bunch of other guys who did come in last, and. suddenly they are a powerhouse...



    We have a slim chance to sneak in the playoffs. That's about it.

    A bunch of things could all go right at the same time, I suppose, but I like our chances in 2014, 2015 and beyond better, so I'm all for improving on those odds now.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    i just think if that comp pick is so valuable then we should pocket it ourselves... since we are focusing on a developmental standpoint going forward.... we have been money on comp picks recently.

    just keep jacoby, compete for the division and try to resign him. if he resigns, great. if he walks, great.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

     

    The only trade I make that would include 3 of these 4 would also include Lackey or Dubie for a SP upgrade.  That is really our primary weakness on this team for the next 2-3 years.  A Matt Cain type sure would solidify this team I think, even if it cost a Jake, Aceves, Dubie and Salty.  Would hope an OF would come back in that deal as well.

     



    You're not getting a Matt Cain type for a package like that. 

     



    Not even close.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

     

    I'm confused  ... so we don't want Ellsbury anymore?

     



    He's walking after this year. I put the odds at 98%.

     

    Why not help our longterm future instead of shooting for a 3rd or 4th place finish instead of 4th or 5th?

     



    Why is the AL East so unwinnable?

     

     

    Every team has weaknesses.Toronto won the offseason, but if not for the Sox white flag trade they were a last place team last year.  And they bolstered their team with a bunch of other guys who did come in last, and. suddenly they are a powerhouse...

     



    We have a slim chance to sneak in the playoffs. That's about it.

     

    A bunch of things could all go right at the same time, I suppose, but I like our chances in 2014, 2015 and beyond better, so I'm all for improving on those odds now.



    every team in the ALE has just as many question marks as us or more. I don't know how you can say we have a slim chance to win over the yanks, O's, Rays, Jays. we have just as good a shot as them.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

     

    I'm confused  ... so we don't want Ellsbury anymore?

     



    He's walking after this year. I put the odds at 98%.

     

    Why not help our longterm future instead of shooting for a 3rd or 4th place finish instead of 4th or 5th?

     



    Why is the AL East so unwinnable?

     

     

    Every team has weaknesses.Toronto won the offseason, but if not for the Sox white flag trade they were a last place team last year.  And they bolstered their team with a bunch of other guys who did come in last, and. suddenly they are a powerhouse...

     



    We have a slim chance to sneak in the playoffs. That's about it.

     

    A bunch of things could all go right at the same time, I suppose, but I like our chances in 2014, 2015 and beyond better, so I'm all for improving on those odds now.

     



    every team in the ALE has just as many question marks as us or more. I don't know how you can say we have a slim chance to win over the yanks, O's, Rays, Jays. we have just as good a shot as them.

     

     



    Then we're even: I don't see how you can see us as having a significantly better chance of making the playoffs over the Yanks, Rays, Angels, Tigers, A's, Rangers, or a slightly better chance than the Jays, White Sox, Mariners, and maybe even the Royals.

     

    There are 6 teams clearly better than us and another 4 just as good. If you like those odds, let's sit down for a game of poker sometime soon, ok?

    I'm not saying we can't win, but even when a team like the 2012 O's make it, how far can they realistically go?

    We'd need just about every player to meet or exceed expaectations. I know that's "why we play the games", but asking me to profess false hope in the form of a factual position is not something I have ever done. I'm not about to start now, sorry.

     I wouldn't bet on the Sox at 100:1 odds, not even a dollar.

    (BTW, even if you gave us an equal chance to win the AL East as everyone else, I'd call a 20% chance pretty close to "slim".)

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    wait...what???!!!

    did he!! freeze over?

    in what alternate universe is toronto the favorite to win the AL EAst??

    let's see the .....errrr....yankees have won the east like 57 out of the last 58 years so....yeah.....toronto is definitely the favorite.  oh and the sox are the WC team.  yes.  that is it!

    maybe....just maybe....we can have the yankees not win the AL East for simply 2 years in a row and maybe....just maybe...then we can say someone else is the favorite to win this division.

    sigh.....

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    wait...what???!!!

    did he!! freeze over?

    in what alternate universe is toronto the favorite to win the AL EAst??

    let's see the .....errrr....yankees have won the east like 57 out of the last 58 years so....yeah.....toronto is definitely the favorite.  oh and the sox are the WC team.  yes.  that is it!

    maybe....just maybe....we can have the yankees not win the AL East for simply 2 years in a row and maybe....just maybe...then we can say someone else is the favorite to win this division.

    sigh.....



    The past means nothing.  I do not care if the Yankees won the AL East each year since the birth of Christ.   LOL

    2013 is a whole new season and any team within the division can win the AL East.  

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

     

    I'm confused  ... so we don't want Ellsbury anymore?

     



    He's walking after this year. I put the odds at 98%.

     

    Why not help our longterm future instead of shooting for a 3rd or 4th place finish instead of 4th or 5th?

     



    Why is the AL East so unwinnable?

     

     

    Every team has weaknesses.Toronto won the offseason, but if not for the Sox white flag trade they were a last place team last year.  And they bolstered their team with a bunch of other guys who did come in last, and. suddenly they are a powerhouse...

     



    We have a slim chance to sneak in the playoffs. That's about it.

     

    A bunch of things could all go right at the same time, I suppose, but I like our chances in 2014, 2015 and beyond better, so I'm all for improving on those odds now.

     



    every team in the ALE has just as many question marks as us or more. I don't know how you can say we have a slim chance to win over the yanks, O's, Rays, Jays. we have just as good a shot as them.

     

     



    Then we're even: I don't see how you can see us as having a significantly better chance of making the playoffs over the Yanks, Rays, Angels, Tigers, A's, Rangers, or a slightly better chance than the Jays, White Sox, Mariners, and maybe even the Royals.

     

    There are 6 teams clearly better than us and another 4 just as good. If you like those odds, let's sit down for a game of poker sometime soon, ok?

    I'm not saying we can't win, but even when a team like the 2012 O's make it, how far can they realistically go?

    We'd need just about every player to meet or exceed expaectations. I know that's "why we play the games", but asking me to profess false hope in the form of a factual position is not something I have ever done. I'm not about to start now, sorry.

     I wouldn't bet on the Sox at 100:1 odds, not even a dollar.

    (BTW, even if you gave us an equal chance to win the AL East as everyone else, I'd call a 20% chance pretty close to "slim".)



    Wow....100-1....even Vegas will only give you 30-1 on the Sox winning the WS, and less than that of course on winning the pennant. I am surprised you are that Pessimistic. I agree the Sox need players to meet or exceed expectations, but so due everybody, at least when it comes to their key 4 or 5 players. If Johnson, Dickey, Buerhle and Bautista dont meet expectations, does Toronto have any shot of winning the WS?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    Then we're even: I don't see how you can see us as having a significantly better chance of making the playoffs over the Yanks, Rays, Angels, Tigers, A's, Rangers, or a slightly better chance than the Jays, White Sox, Mariners, and maybe even the Royals.

     

    There are 6 teams clearly better than us and another 4 just as good. If you like those odds, let's sit down for a game of poker sometime soon, ok?

    I'm not saying we can't win, but even when a team like the 2012 O's make it, how far can they realistically go?

    We'd need just about every player to meet or exceed expaectations. I know that's "why we play the games", but asking me to profess false hope in the form of a factual position is not something I have ever done. I'm not about to start now, sorry.

     I wouldn't bet on the Sox at 100:1 odds, not even a dollar.

    (BTW, even if you gave us an equal chance to win the AL East as everyone else, I'd call a 20% chance pretty close to "slim".)

     



    Wow....100-1....even Vegas will only give you 30-1 on the Sox winning the WS, and less than that of course on winning the pennant. I am surprised you are that Pessimistic. I agree the Sox need players to meet or exceed expectations, but so due everybody, at least when it comes to their key 4 or 5 players. If Johnson, Dickey, Buerhle and Bautista dont meet expectations, does Toronto have any shot of winning the WS?

    1) I'm pretty stingy with my money, so saying I wouldn't bet a dollar on the Sox at 100:1 odds is not as big a deal as it might be for most people. I wouldn't bet a dollar on the Jays at 100: either, but if I was forced to bet on the Sox or the Jays, I'd take the Jays. 

    2) I'd Take the Tigers, Angels, Rays and A's at 50:1 or less. I'd take the Yanks and Rangers at 60:1 or so. I'd take the Jays and White Sox over the Sox chances, but it is close, and I won't argue with anyone who says we will do better than them.

    3) When you have 5 slots for the playoffs, 6 teams with a significantly better chance than us, 2 teams with slightly better, and 2 more with about the same (KC & Sea), I'd say the odds are very low. I'm not giving the O's much of a shot, but they have a good GM and manager and played well last year.

    4) If the Vegas odds are 30:1, I'd certainly give anyone 40:1 odds. Maybe I should open a 1-800-BET-N-SOX line and give all you guys 31:1 odds.

    5) I'm not as high on the Jays as many here are, so if you want to discuss who I think will hold us back, it's the Rays. I still think the Yanks will be better than us, but with all the injuries, aging players, and pending suspensions, that might change. However, the players you mentioned (Dickey, Buehrle, and Bautista have a better shot of meeting expectations than Lackey, Dempster, and Napoli. I look at it more like this: R Romero is their 5 starter. What if he meets 2012 expectations? Watch out! The Jays had a nice core of players last year, some got hurt, some underperformed, and if they come back, it could get scary with all the additions adding to that.

    Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Johnson, & Romero.

    Bautista, Reyes, Encarnacion, Cabrera, Rasmus, Lind, Lawrie, Davis, Izturus, Arenciba and more... The more I think of it, maybe some of you guys are right to really fear this team in 2012.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    Once the season starts, could Jacoby Ellsbury ask to be traded to definitely avoid the draft-pick burden as a free agent next offseason?

    I doubt that would happen if the Red Sox are in contention, but I could see that incentive if the Sox are not contending at the trade deadline.

    I'm still not convinced that Ellsbury will perform well enough in 2013 to receive a qualifying offer if he stays with the same team all season. It's certainly possible, but it's not a certainty.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Once the season starts, could Jacoby Ellsbury ask to be traded to definitely avoid the draft-pick burden as a free agent next offseason?

    I doubt that would happen if the Red Sox are in contention, but I could see that incentive if the Sox are not contending at the trade deadline.

    I'm still not convinced that Ellsbury will perform well enough in 2013 to receive a qualifying offer if he stays with the same team all season. It's certainly possible, but it's not a certainty.



    Shane Victorino got $13M x 3.

    He may not have gotten that had the team signing him lost a draft pick, but I think Jacoby would have to play pretty poorly to not get a qualifying offer.

    Possible, yes, but I thin it is highly probable he gets one.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    Once the season starts, could Jacoby Ellsbury ask to be traded to definitely avoid the draft-pick burden as a free agent next offseason?

    I doubt that would happen if the Red Sox are in contention, but I could see that incentive if the Sox are not contending at the trade deadline.

    I'm still not convinced that Ellsbury will perform well enough in 2013 to receive a qualifying offer if he stays with the same team all season. It's certainly possible, but it's not a certainty.

     



    Shane Victorino got $13M x 3.

     

    He may not have gotten that had the team signing him lost a draft pick, but I think Jacoby would have to play pretty poorly to not get a qualifying offer.

    Possible, yes, but I thin it is highly probable he gets one.




    BJ upton got 15X5 and he blows.....

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    But, he's almost always healthy...

    ;)

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

    The only trade I make that would include 3 of these 4 would also include Lackey or Dubie for a SP upgrade.  That is really our primary weakness on this team for the next 2-3 years.  A Matt Cain type sure would solidify this team I think, even if it cost a Jake, Aceves, Dubie and Salty.  Would hope an OF would come back in that deal as well.




    That wouldnt come close to getting Matt Cain

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Once the season starts, could Jacoby Ellsbury ask to be traded to definitely avoid the draft-pick burden as a free agent next offseason?

    I doubt that would happen if the Red Sox are in contention, but I could see that incentive if the Sox are not contending at the trade deadline.

    I'm still not convinced that Ellsbury will perform well enough in 2013 to receive a qualifying offer if he stays with the same team all season. It's certainly possible, but it's not a certainty.




    Jacoby can ask for anything he wants...

    If he is doing well and the Sox are too, I dont see them trading him unless its an obvious improvement.

    Also, If he does do well this year I have no issue giving him a QO. Im sure that wont matter as he will still go to FA.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Once the season starts, could Jacoby Ellsbury ask to be traded to definitely avoid the draft-pick burden as a free agent next offseason?

    I doubt that would happen if the Red Sox are in contention, but I could see that incentive if the Sox are not contending at the trade deadline.

    I'm still not convinced that Ellsbury will perform well enough in 2013 to receive a qualifying offer if he stays with the same team all season. It's certainly possible, but it's not a certainty.

    Jacoby can ask for anything he wants...

    If he is doing well and the Sox are too, I dont see them trading him unless its an obvious improvement.

    Also, If he does do well this year I have no issue giving him a QO. Im sure that wont matter as he will still go to FA.



    I raise the trade-request issue in part because Jacoby Ellsbury's agent is acutely aware of the draft-pick burden after his offseason experiences with Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn.

    Some people think another Scott Boras client --Manny Ramirez -- played a role in his trade at the deadline in 2008:

    http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/08/02/ramxedrez_lobbied_to_stay/?page=full

    Just idle speculation on my part.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    I do not think the Rays will make the playoffs because of their line-up.  Last year, they averaged only 4.3 runs per game and they lost power hitters like Upton and Pena during the offseason.  Langoria needs to be healthy too.  

    Despite losing Shields, I like their starting rotation.  But I think their line-up will not be able to score enough runs.

     

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: It is quite obvious, JACOBY, SALTY,BARD, ACEVES ............

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I do not think the Rays will make the playoffs because of their line-up.  Last year, they averaged only 4.3 runs per game and they lost power hitters like Upton and Pena during the offseason.  Langoria needs to be healthy too.  

    Despite losing Shields, I like their starting rotation.  But I think their line-up will not be able to score enough runs.

     

     I'm not sure TB will miss...

    Upton at .246  28  78

    They can now play Zobrist in the OF FT with the addition of Escobar at SS and Roberts at 2B.

     

    I'm not sure TB will miss...

    Carlos Pena at .197  19  61

    Yes, that's 47 HRs between the two, but with a healthy Longoria getting maybe 350 more PAs, Joyce & Luke Scott probably getting more play time, and Jennings a year older, their offense could be better overall, especially if you look at OBP and OPS.

    Upton .298 (.742)

    Pena  .330 (.684)

    I'm not sure losing 2 guys with a combined OPS of about .715 is going to be that bad.

     

     

     



     

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