It's a 2 yr bridge, not 1 like people think. Signing Greinke and Hamilton now is not the same as signing Agon and Crawford....here is why

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    I dont like Grienke in Boston, at all. Hamilton would be nice on a 3-4 year deal.

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course there are risks....but we need a 1/2 guy, not another 3/4 pitcher. He is the only top pitcher out there. Forget Sanchez, Marckum, and all the rest...not even close to Greinke as a pitcher. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It might be worthing noting that both Sanchez and Marcum have better ERAs over the past 3 season.  And better ERA+.  Did you know that Greinke was #50 in ERA over the past 3 seasons?

    [/QUOTE]

    I like how you chose 3 yrs as your measuring stick. Let's do 4 yrs....or 5 yrs. how many times has marcum or Sanchez gone 200 innings in that time also? Why don' t we ask the 32 gms who they would take....

    [/QUOTE]

    I go back three because that's how assessments are done.  I think a lot of the analysts use a 5/4/3 weighting over the past three seasons.  Four years ago is ancient history.

    Four years ago, some of your best players were Youkilis, Arod, Lind, Bay Drew, Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard.  And some of you best pitchers were Carpenter, Lincecum, Jurrijens, Vazquez, Happ, Millwood.

    Four years ago is a lifetime in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't judge a pitcher by his "won/loss record," and I didn't mean to include Sanchez with Marcum in the 1/3 of the price tag.  Sanchez will likely get 80+ million, but none of it matters at the end of the day, because Zach Greinke isn't an option for the Sox.  The subject has been beaten to death, yet it still comes up. 

     
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    I dont like Grienke in Boston, at all. Hamilton would be nice on a 3-4 year deal.

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course there are risks....but we need a 1/2 guy, not another 3/4 pitcher. He is the only top pitcher out there. Forget Sanchez, Marckum, and all the rest...not even close to Greinke as a pitcher. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It might be worthing noting that both Sanchez and Marcum have better ERAs over the past 3 season.  And better ERA+.  Did you know that Greinke was #50 in ERA over the past 3 seasons?

    [/QUOTE]

    I like how you chose 3 yrs as your measuring stick. Let's do 4 yrs....or 5 yrs. how many times has marcum or Sanchez gone 200 innings in that time also? Why don' t we ask the 32 gms who they would take....

    [/QUOTE]

    I go back three because that's how assessments are done.  I think a lot of the analysts use a 5/4/3 weighting over the past three seasons.  Four years ago is ancient history.

    Four years ago, some of your best players were Youkilis, Arod, Lind, Bay Drew, Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard.  And some of you best pitchers were Carpenter, Lincecum, Jurrijens, Vazquez, Happ, Millwood.

    Four years ago is a lifetime in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't judge a pitcher by his "won/loss record," and I didn't mean to include Sanchez with Marcum in the 1/3 of the price tag.  Sanchez will likely get 80+ million, but none of it matters at the end of the day, because Zach Greinke isn't an option for the Sox.  The subject has been beaten to death, yet it still comes up. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Hmmmm...80m for a 10 win a yr pitcher? Now that is crazy....and....era is the most misleading stat to judge a pitcher, w's and l's is the only thing that matters. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

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    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    KC won 67, but you conveniently left out Mil, who won 96 in 2011, Mil for part of the year in 2012, and LAA for part of the year in 2012.  Greinke's teams were much better than Sanchez, and about equal to Marcum's, who has a better winning % over the past three years.

    I think you're about right on the prices for Sanchez and Marcum, but Greinke will have about twice the contract that Sanchez will, and i don't see anything over the past few years to warrant that.

    [/QUOTE]

    Well....to answer your question. With those 2 good teams, Greinke went 16-6, and 15-5....that,s 31-10 on good teams the last 2 yrs. what did the other 2 do? Should I answer that for you? 

     
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    I dont like Grienke in Boston, at all. Hamilton would be nice on a 3-4 year deal.

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course there are risks....but we need a 1/2 guy, not another 3/4 pitcher. He is the only top pitcher out there. Forget Sanchez, Marckum, and all the rest...not even close to Greinke as a pitcher. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It might be worthing noting that both Sanchez and Marcum have better ERAs over the past 3 season.  And better ERA+.  Did you know that Greinke was #50 in ERA over the past 3 seasons?

    [/QUOTE]

    I like how you chose 3 yrs as your measuring stick. Let's do 4 yrs....or 5 yrs. how many times has marcum or Sanchez gone 200 innings in that time also? Why don' t we ask the 32 gms who they would take....

    [/QUOTE]

    I go back three because that's how assessments are done.  I think a lot of the analysts use a 5/4/3 weighting over the past three seasons.  Four years ago is ancient history.

    Four years ago, some of your best players were Youkilis, Arod, Lind, Bay Drew, Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard.  And some of you best pitchers were Carpenter, Lincecum, Jurrijens, Vazquez, Happ, Millwood.

    Four years ago is a lifetime in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't judge a pitcher by his "won/loss record," and I didn't mean to include Sanchez with Marcum in the 1/3 of the price tag.  Sanchez will likely get 80+ million, but none of it matters at the end of the day, because Zach Greinke isn't an option for the Sox.  The subject has been beaten to death, yet it still comes up. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Hmmmm...80m for a 10 win a yr pitcher? Now that is crazy....and....era is the most misleading stat to judge a pitcher, w's and l's is the only thing that matters. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It may be crazy, but considering the fact that his agent is asking for more than that right now and with limited starters on the market and all teams needing pitching, he'll very likely get it.  By the way, Felix Hernandez won the CY Young award in 2010 with 13 wins.  7 other starters in the top ten in voting finished with more wins.  It doesn't sound like "wins and losses" played a factor at all in determing who the best pitcher was in the A.L. that year.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

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    I dont like Grienke in Boston, at all. Hamilton would be nice on a 3-4 year deal.

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course there are risks....but we need a 1/2 guy, not another 3/4 pitcher. He is the only top pitcher out there. Forget Sanchez, Marckum, and all the rest...not even close to Greinke as a pitcher. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It might be worthing noting that both Sanchez and Marcum have better ERAs over the past 3 season.  And better ERA+.  Did you know that Greinke was #50 in ERA over the past 3 seasons?

    [/QUOTE]

    I like how you chose 3 yrs as your measuring stick. Let's do 4 yrs....or 5 yrs. how many times has marcum or Sanchez gone 200 innings in that time also? Why don' t we ask the 32 gms who they would take....

    [/QUOTE]

    I go back three because that's how assessments are done.  I think a lot of the analysts use a 5/4/3 weighting over the past three seasons.  Four years ago is ancient history.

    Four years ago, some of your best players were Youkilis, Arod, Lind, Bay Drew, Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard.  And some of you best pitchers were Carpenter, Lincecum, Jurrijens, Vazquez, Happ, Millwood.

    Four years ago is a lifetime in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't judge a pitcher by his "won/loss record," and I didn't mean to include Sanchez with Marcum in the 1/3 of the price tag.  Sanchez will likely get 80+ million, but none of it matters at the end of the day, because Zach Greinke isn't an option for the Sox.  The subject has been beaten to death, yet it still comes up. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Hmmmm...80m for a 10 win a yr pitcher? Now that is crazy....and....era is the most misleading stat to judge a pitcher, w's and l's is the only thing that matters. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It may be crazy, but considering the fact that his agent is asking for more than that right now and with limited starters on the market and all teams needing pitching, he'll very likely get it.  By the way, Felix Hernandez won the CY Young award in 2010 with 13 wins.  7 other starters in the top ten in voting finished with more wins.  It doesn't sound like "wins and losses" played a factor at all in determing who the best pitcher was in the A.L. that year.

    [/QUOTE]

    Jasko.  Believe me, I'm well aware of how misleading win's n losses, and era can be. My Son is a pitcher down here in Fl at the coll level. 1or 2 bad starts can ruin a players chances of winning a Cy, or making an all star team. Also...who you pitch against etc....I'm just saying. Grenke has taken the ball against every teams number 1 the last 5 yrs and has been a horse. You say forget 4 yrs, and do 3.... Well, let's do 2 yrs....31-10....Sanchez and marcum do not come close to what he has done. Now.....will he come here,tour prob right. But if I wanted to win....the next 2 yrs, I want Grenke...he is 28, not 31....he will give whoever he plays with 2 or 3 top 5 Cy years before he slides. On a good team....the guy is capable of a 21-6, 2.26 era. Can,t say that about the other 2

     
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    I dont like Grienke in Boston, at all. Hamilton would be nice on a 3-4 year deal.

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course there are risks....but we need a 1/2 guy, not another 3/4 pitcher. He is the only top pitcher out there. Forget Sanchez, Marckum, and all the rest...not even close to Greinke as a pitcher. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It might be worthing noting that both Sanchez and Marcum have better ERAs over the past 3 season.  And better ERA+.  Did you know that Greinke was #50 in ERA over the past 3 seasons?

    [/QUOTE]

    I like how you chose 3 yrs as your measuring stick. Let's do 4 yrs....or 5 yrs. how many times has marcum or Sanchez gone 200 innings in that time also? Why don' t we ask the 32 gms who they would take....

    [/QUOTE]

    I go back three because that's how assessments are done.  I think a lot of the analysts use a 5/4/3 weighting over the past three seasons.  Four years ago is ancient history.

    Four years ago, some of your best players were Youkilis, Arod, Lind, Bay Drew, Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard.  And some of you best pitchers were Carpenter, Lincecum, Jurrijens, Vazquez, Happ, Millwood.

    Four years ago is a lifetime in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't judge a pitcher by his "won/loss record," and I didn't mean to include Sanchez with Marcum in the 1/3 of the price tag.  Sanchez will likely get 80+ million, but none of it matters at the end of the day, because Zach Greinke isn't an option for the Sox.  The subject has been beaten to death, yet it still comes up. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Hmmmm...80m for a 10 win a yr pitcher? Now that is crazy....and....era is the most misleading stat to judge a pitcher, w's and l's is the only thing that matters. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It may be crazy, but considering the fact that his agent is asking for more than that right now and with limited starters on the market and all teams needing pitching, he'll very likely get it.  By the way, Felix Hernandez won the CY Young award in 2010 with 13 wins.  7 other starters in the top ten in voting finished with more wins.  It doesn't sound like "wins and losses" played a factor at all in determing who the best pitcher was in the A.L. that year.

    [/QUOTE]

    Jasko.  Believe me, I'm well aware of how misleading win's n losses, and era can be. My Son is a pitcher down here in Fl at the coll level. 1or 2 bad starts can ruin a players chances of winning a Cy, or making an all star team. Also...who you pitch against etc....I'm just saying. Grenke has taken the ball against every teams number 1 the last 5 yrs and has been a horse. You say forget 4 yrs, and do 3.... Well, let's do 2 yrs....31-10....Sanchez and marcum do not come close to what he has done. Now.....will he come here,tour prob right. But if I wanted to win....the next 2 yrs, I want Grenke...he is 28, not 31....he will give whoever he plays with 2 or 3 top 5 Cy years before he slides. On a good team....the guy is capable of a 21-6, 2.26 era. Can,t say that about the other 2

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, Greinke is "capable" of great numbers, but the Sox aren't paying Greinke 130+ million dollars & Greinke isn't signing with Boston when he'll get the same contract somewhere where he'll be more comfortable.  It's that simple.  The Dodgers are heavy favorites with the Angels and Rangers the only other real options.  We've been over this a thousand times.  There is zero chance of it happening, let's all move on....

     
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    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    KC won 67, but you conveniently left out Mil, who won 96 in 2011, Mil for part of the year in 2012, and LAA for part of the year in 2012.  Greinke's teams were much better than Sanchez, and about equal to Marcum's, who has a better winning % over the past three years.

    I think you're about right on the prices for Sanchez and Marcum, but Greinke will have about twice the contract that Sanchez will, and i don't see anything over the past few years to warrant that.

    [/QUOTE]

    Well....to answer your question. With those 2 good teams, Greinke went 16-6, and 15-5....that,s 31-10 on good teams the last 2 yrs. what did the other 2 do? Should I answer that for you? 

    [/QUOTE]

    Well, if you want to go strictly by W/L, Greinke is a .538 pitcher.  .538 won't even get us into the playoffs.

    Can't you at least aim for an All Star pitcher?  Over the past 9 years, Wakefield has any many All Star appearances as Greinke.

     
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    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    KC won 67, but you conveniently left out Mil, who won 96 in 2011, Mil for part of the year in 2012, and LAA for part of the year in 2012.  Greinke's teams were much better than Sanchez, and about equal to Marcum's, who has a better winning % over the past three years.

    I think you're about right on the prices for Sanchez and Marcum, but Greinke will have about twice the contract that Sanchez will, and i don't see anything over the past few years to warrant that.

    [/QUOTE]

    Well....to answer your question. With those 2 good teams, Greinke went 16-6, and 15-5....that,s 31-10 on good teams the last 2 yrs. what did the other 2 do? Should I answer that for you? 

    [/QUOTE]

    Well, if you want to go strictly by W/L, Greinke is a .538 pitcher.  .538 won't even get us into the playoffs.

    Can't you at least aim for an All Star pitcher?  Over the past 9 years, Wakefield has any many All Star appearances as Greinke.  Think about that for a second.  Every team has to have an AS.  KC was about as bad as any team in the league.  Yet in 7 seasons with about the worst team in BB, he was only the best player on the team once.

    And only once in 9 years, was he considered good enough to warrant an AS appearance.

    For $22M or so, don't you at least want an AS?

     
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    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    KC won 67, but you conveniently left out Mil, who won 96 in 2011, Mil for part of the year in 2012, and LAA for part of the year in 2012.  Greinke's teams were much better than Sanchez, and about equal to Marcum's, who has a better winning % over the past three years.

    I think you're about right on the prices for Sanchez and Marcum, but Greinke will have about twice the contract that Sanchez will, and i don't see anything over the past few years to warrant that.

    [/QUOTE]

    Well....to answer your question. With those 2 good teams, Greinke went 16-6, and 15-5....that,s 31-10 on good teams the last 2 yrs. what did the other 2 do? Should I answer that for you? 

    [/QUOTE]

    Well, if you want to go strictly by W/L, Greinke is a .538 pitcher.  .538 won't even get us into the playoffs.

    Can't you at least aim for an All Star pitcher?  Over the past 9 years, Wakefield has any many All Star appearances as Greinke.

    [/QUOTE]

    Dude...you were prob one of those fat kids that sat at the end of the bench and wished you could get on the mound and compete. Tell me what you ve done...at any level, and I ll match up. Zachary Greinke is a top 10 pitcher in all of MLB and will get get paid accordingly, as he should. Spin your stats over 9 yrs somewhere else, will ya....if the red sox want to really compete....they need studs....aka, Pedro, Schill, etc....the closets to those guysout the is Greinke....not Marcum..".or Sanchez....case closed. 

     
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    I dont like Grienke in Boston, at all. Hamilton would be nice on a 3-4 year deal.

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course there are risks....but we need a 1/2 guy, not another 3/4 pitcher. He is the only top pitcher out there. Forget Sanchez, Marckum, and all the rest...not even close to Greinke as a pitcher. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It might be worthing noting that both Sanchez and Marcum have better ERAs over the past 3 season.  And better ERA+.  Did you know that Greinke was #50 in ERA over the past 3 seasons?

    [/QUOTE]

    I like how you chose 3 yrs as your measuring stick. Let's do 4 yrs....or 5 yrs. how many times has marcum or Sanchez gone 200 innings in that time also? Why don' t we ask the 32 gms who they would take....

    [/QUOTE]

    I go back three because that's how assessments are done.  I think a lot of the analysts use a 5/4/3 weighting over the past three seasons.  Four years ago is ancient history.

    Four years ago, some of your best players were Youkilis, Arod, Lind, Bay Drew, Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard.  And some of you best pitchers were Carpenter, Lincecum, Jurrijens, Vazquez, Happ, Millwood.

    Four years ago is a lifetime in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't judge a pitcher by his "won/loss record," and I didn't mean to include Sanchez with Marcum in the 1/3 of the price tag.  Sanchez will likely get 80+ million, but none of it matters at the end of the day, because Zach Greinke isn't an option for the Sox.  The subject has been beaten to death, yet it still comes up. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Hmmmm...80m for a 10 win a yr pitcher? Now that is crazy....and....era is the most misleading stat to judge a pitcher, w's and l's is the only thing that matters. 

    [/QUOTE]

    W/L means very little Clay had a good W/L in the first half with a near 6 era And people loved him If Josh had the same run support he would have had 10+ wins at the AS break. It is the whole package. This thought that it is one or another is why we are here and BC is the GM.

     
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    Dude...you were prob one of those fat kids that sat at the end of the bench and wished you could get on the mound and compete. Tell me what you ve done...at any level, and I ll match up. Zachary Greinke is a top 10 pitcher in all of MLB and will get get paid accordingly, as he should. Spin your stats over 9 yrs somewhere else, will ya....if the red sox want to really compete....they need studs....aka, Pedro, Schill, etc....the closets to those guysout the is Greinke....not Marcum..".or Sanchez....case closed. 

    Does bowling, pool, and poker count?  Darts?  If the sport depended on brute force, I could hold my own.  I could shoot from the outside, and played regularly against some of the guys on a Division I school (low-end Div I) without getting embarrassed.  Tore my ankle up pretty good and was reduced to calendar speed after that.

    You could say Greinke is top-10, but you don't support that with data.

    8 SPs in the NL made the AS team, Greinke did not.

    9 pitchers in the NL got CY votes, and Greinke got none.

    In 2011, 12 pitchers got CY votes in the NL, but none for Greinke.

    • 2010, no votes.
    • 2008, no votes.
    • 2007, none
    • 2006, nada
    • 2005, zilch

    So you tell me he is a top-10 pitcher, but for one year, never made the AS team, and never got a CY vote, not a  single vote.

    So where has he finished in ERA?

    • #27 in 2012
    • #58 in 2011
    • #63 in 2010
    • #22 in 2008
    • #24 in 2007

    So gain, he's a top-10 pitcher, but has only one season where he finished in the top-20 in ERA?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    In response to makonikyman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I dont like Grienke in Boston, at all. Hamilton would be nice on a 3-4 year deal.

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course there are risks....but we need a 1/2 guy, not another 3/4 pitcher. He is the only top pitcher out there. Forget Sanchez, Marckum, and all the rest...not even close to Greinke as a pitcher. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Lester and Buch can be those guy. with 3 different PC in the last 2 years is sure to mess things up. With Farrell back, I think Lester will be back in the Cy Young talks, maybe Buch too.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Dude...you were prob one of those fat kids that sat at the end of the bench and wished you could get on the mound and compete. Tell me what you ve done...at any level, and I ll match up. Zachary Greinke is a top 10 pitcher in all of MLB and will get get paid accordingly, as he should. Spin your stats over 9 yrs somewhere else, will ya....if the red sox want to really compete....they need studs....aka, Pedro, Schill, etc....the closets to those guysout the is Greinke....not Marcum..".or Sanchez....case closed. 

    Does bowling, pool, and poker count?  Darts?  If the sport depended on brute force, I could hold my own.  I could shoot from the outside, and played regularly against some of the guys on a Division I school (low-end Div I) without getting embarrassed.  Tore my ankle up pretty good and was reduced to calendar speed after that.

    You could say Greinke is top-10, but you don't support that with data.

    8 SPs in the NL made the AS team, Greinke did not.

    9 pitchers in the NL got CY votes, and Greinke got none.

    In 2011, 12 pitchers got CY votes in the NL, but none for Greinke.

    • 2010, no votes.
    • 2008, no votes.
    • 2007, none
    • 2006, nada
    • 2005, zilch

    So you tell me he is a top-10 pitcher, but for one year, never made the AS team, and never got a CY vote, not a  single vote.

    So where has he finished in ERA?

    • #27 in 2012
    • #58 in 2011
    • #63 in 2010
    • #22 in 2008
    • #24 in 2007

    So gain, he's a top-10 pitcher, but has only one season where he finished in the top-20 in ERA?

    [/QUOTE]

    First, I am not for signing Greinke, but the numbers do support him as a top 10 starter the last 4 years anyways:

    xFIP: #3 at 3.15 (behind Halladay and Lee and ahead of felix, Verlander & CC)

    WAR: #5 at 23.5 (Just behind Felix and ahead of Cc Sab.)

    tERA #6 at 3.27 (Just ahead of Wainwright & Halladay)

    SIERA #4 at 3.20 (Just ahead of Halladay & Hamels)

     

    Go back 6 years (2007-2012):

    #4 in xFIP (3.34) Just 0.02 behind King Felix, but ahead of CC, Lee...

    #7 in WAR (29.6) Ahead of Lincecum, Beckett, Hamels, Lester, Shileds...

    #5 in tERA (3.46) Just ahead of Verlander, CC, Cain...

    #2 in SIERA (3.38) Ahead of everyone but Halladay.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Dude...you were prob one of those fat kids that sat at the end of the bench and wished you could get on the mound and compete. Tell me what you ve done...at any level, and I ll match up. Zachary Greinke is a top 10 pitcher in all of MLB and will get get paid accordingly, as he should. Spin your stats over 9 yrs somewhere else, will ya....if the red sox want to really compete....they need studs....aka, Pedro, Schill, etc....the closets to those guysout the is Greinke....not Marcum..".or Sanchez....case closed. 

    Does bowling, pool, and poker count?  Darts?  If the sport depended on brute force, I could hold my own.  I could shoot from the outside, and played regularly against some of the guys on a Division I school (low-end Div I) without getting embarrassed.  Tore my ankle up pretty good and was reduced to calendar speed after that.

    You could say Greinke is top-10, but you don't support that with data.

    8 SPs in the NL made the AS team, Greinke did not.

    9 pitchers in the NL got CY votes, and Greinke got none.

    In 2011, 12 pitchers got CY votes in the NL, but none for Greinke.

    • 2010, no votes.
    • 2008, no votes.
    • 2007, none
    • 2006, nada
    • 2005, zilch

    So you tell me he is a top-10 pitcher, but for one year, never made the AS team, and never got a CY vote, not a  single vote.

    So where has he finished in ERA?

    • #27 in 2012
    • #58 in 2011
    • #63 in 2010
    • #22 in 2008
    • #24 in 2007

    So gain, he's a top-10 pitcher, but has only one season where he finished in the top-20 in ERA?

    [/QUOTE]

    First, I am not for signing Greinke, but the numbers do support him as a top 10 starter the last 4 years anyways:

    xFIP: #3 at 3.15 (behind Halladay and Lee and ahead of felix, Verlander & CC)

    WAR: #5 at 23.5 (Just behind Felix and ahead of Cc Sab.)

    tERA #6 at 3.27 (Just ahead of Wainwright & Halladay)

    SIERA #4 at 3.20 (Just ahead of Halladay & Hamels)

     

    Go back 6 years (2007-2012):

    #4 in xFIP (3.34) Just 0.02 behind King Felix, but ahead of CC, Lee...

    #7 in WAR (29.6) Ahead of Lincecum, Beckett, Hamels, Lester, Shileds...

    #5 in tERA (3.46) Just ahead of Verlander, CC, Cain...

    #2 in SIERA (3.38) Ahead of everyone but Halladay.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Dude...you were prob one of those fat kids that sat at the end of the bench and wished you could get on the mound and compete. Tell me what you ve done...at any level, and I ll match up. Zachary Greinke is a top 10 pitcher in all of MLB and will get get paid accordingly, as he should. Spin your stats over 9 yrs somewhere else, will ya....if the red sox want to really compete....they need studs....aka, Pedro, Schill, etc....the closets to those guysout the is Greinke....not Marcum..".or Sanchez....case closed. 

    Does bowling, pool, and poker count?  Darts?  If the sport depended on brute force, I could hold my own.  I could shoot from the outside, and played regularly against some of the guys on a Division I school (low-end Div I) without getting embarrassed.  Tore my ankle up pretty good and was reduced to calendar speed after that.

    You could say Greinke is top-10, but you don't support that with data.

    8 SPs in the NL made the AS team, Greinke did not.

    9 pitchers in the NL got CY votes, and Greinke got none.

    In 2011, 12 pitchers got CY votes in the NL, but none for Greinke.

    • 2010, no votes.
    • 2008, no votes.
    • 2007, none
    • 2006, nada
    • 2005, zilch

    So you tell me he is a top-10 pitcher, but for one year, never made the AS team, and never got a CY vote, not a  single vote.

    So where has he finished in ERA?

    • #27 in 2012
    • #58 in 2011
    • #63 in 2010
    • #22 in 2008
    • #24 in 2007

    So gain, he's a top-10 pitcher, but has only one season where he finished in the top-20 in ERA?

    [/QUOTE]

    First, I am not for signing Greinke, but the numbers do support him as a top 10 starter the last 4 years anyways:

    xFIP: #3 at 3.15 (behind Halladay and Lee and ahead of felix, Verlander & CC)

    WAR: #5 at 23.5 (Just behind Felix and ahead of Cc Sab.)

    tERA #6 at 3.27 (Just ahead of Wainwright & Halladay)

    SIERA #4 at 3.20 (Just ahead of Halladay & Hamels)

     

    Go back 6 years (2007-2012):

    #4 in xFIP (3.34) Just 0.02 behind King Felix, but ahead of CC, Lee...

    #7 in WAR (29.6) Ahead of Lincecum, Beckett, Hamels, Lester, Shileds...

    #5 in tERA (3.46) Just ahead of Verlander, CC, Cain...

    #2 in SIERA (3.38) Ahead of everyone but Halladay.

     

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts


    Of course there are risks....but we need a 1/2 guy, not another 3/4 pitcher. He is the only top pitcher out there. Forget Sanchez, Marckum, and all the rest...not even close to Greinke as a pitcher. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It might be worthing noting that both Sanchez and Marcum have better ERAs over the past 3 season.  And better ERA+.  Did you know that Greinke was #50 in ERA over the past 3 seasons?

    [/QUOTE]

    I like how you chose 3 yrs as your measuring stick. Let's do 4 yrs....or 5 yrs. how many times has marcum or Sanchez gone 200 innings in that time also? Why don' t we ask the 32 gms who they would take....

    [/QUOTE]

    I go back three because that's how assessments are done.  I think a lot of the analysts use a 5/4/3 weighting over the past three seasons.  Four years ago is ancient history.

    Four years ago, some of your best players were Youkilis, Arod, Lind, Bay Drew, Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard.  And some of you best pitchers were Carpenter, Lincecum, Jurrijens, Vazquez, Happ, Millwood.

    Four years ago is a lifetime in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't judge a pitcher by his "won/loss record," and I didn't mean to include Sanchez with Marcum in the 1/3 of the price tag.  Sanchez will likely get 80+ million, but none of it matters at the end of the day, because Zach Greinke isn't an option for the Sox.  The subject has been beaten to death, yet it still comes up. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Hmmmm...80m for a 10 win a yr pitcher? Now that is crazy....and....era is the most misleading stat to judge a pitcher, w's and l's is the only thing that matters. 

    [/QUOTE]

    W-L?  That is absurd.  W-L record is the only thing that matters when judging a TEAM;  it is a terrible way to judge a PITCHER.

    Extend the logic:  if a pitcher strikes out 27 batters to start a game, but the 3rd strike is dropped on the last pitch leading to a 4-base throwing error so the pitcher loses the game 1-0, did he have a bad game?  Because that is what you are saying when you write "w's and l's is the only thing that matters".

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Of course there are risks....but we need a 1/2 guy, not another 3/4 pitcher. He is the only top pitcher out there. Forget Sanchez, Marckum, and all the rest...not even close to Greinke as a pitcher. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It might be worthing noting that both Sanchez and Marcum have better ERAs over the past 3 season.  And better ERA+.  Did you know that Greinke was #50 in ERA over the past 3 seasons?

    [/QUOTE]

    I like how you chose 3 yrs as your measuring stick. Let's do 4 yrs....or 5 yrs. how many times has marcum or Sanchez gone 200 innings in that time also? Why don' t we ask the 32 gms who they would take....

    [/QUOTE]

    I go back three because that's how assessments are done.  I think a lot of the analysts use a 5/4/3 weighting over the past three seasons.  Four years ago is ancient history.

    Four years ago, some of your best players were Youkilis, Arod, Lind, Bay Drew, Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard.  And some of you best pitchers were Carpenter, Lincecum, Jurrijens, Vazquez, Happ, Millwood.

    Four years ago is a lifetime in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't judge a pitcher by his "won/loss record," and I didn't mean to include Sanchez with Marcum in the 1/3 of the price tag.  Sanchez will likely get 80+ million, but none of it matters at the end of the day, because Zach Greinke isn't an option for the Sox.  The subject has been beaten to death, yet it still comes up. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Hmmmm...80m for a 10 win a yr pitcher? Now that is crazy....and....era is the most misleading stat to judge a pitcher, w's and l's is the only thing that matters. 

    [/QUOTE]

    W-L?  That is absurd.  W-L record is the only thing that matters when judging a TEAM;  it is a terrible way to judge a PITCHER.

    Extend the logic:  if a pitcher strikes out 27 batters to start a game, but the 3rd strike is dropped on the last pitch leading to a 4-base throwing error so the pitcher loses the game 1-0, did he have a bad game?  Because that is what you are saying when you write "w's and l's is the only thing that matters".

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes....but we can go the other way also. How about when a pitcher is up 8-0 in the 3rd inn and instead of bearing down on every pitch, he throws strikes so as not to walk batters and ends up winning 12-5. Giving up 5 runs in 7 innings. It would inflate his era, but he would get the win. When a pitcher has a big lead like that they are taught to throw strikes....don' t walk anyone. Stay out of the big inning, right. A really good pitcher doesn't care about era....only wins and loses. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    In response to makonikyman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Of course there are risks....but we need a 1/2 guy, not another 3/4 pitcher. He is the only top pitcher out there. Forget Sanchez, Marckum, and all the rest...not even close to Greinke as a pitcher. 

    [/QUOTE]

    It might be worthing noting that both Sanchez and Marcum have better ERAs over the past 3 season.  And better ERA+.  Did you know that Greinke was #50 in ERA over the past 3 seasons?

    [/QUOTE]

    I like how you chose 3 yrs as your measuring stick. Let's do 4 yrs....or 5 yrs. how many times has marcum or Sanchez gone 200 innings in that time also? Why don' t we ask the 32 gms who they would take....

    [/QUOTE]

    I go back three because that's how assessments are done.  I think a lot of the analysts use a 5/4/3 weighting over the past three seasons.  Four years ago is ancient history.

    Four years ago, some of your best players were Youkilis, Arod, Lind, Bay Drew, Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard.  And some of you best pitchers were Carpenter, Lincecum, Jurrijens, Vazquez, Happ, Millwood.

    Four years ago is a lifetime in baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok....over the last 3 yrs....Zack Greinke is 41-25 ( that...in spite of pitching on a 67 win team in 2010)  Sanchez....30-34.    Marcum.  33-19 ( big injury issues)  and there is no way you will get Sanchez for a third of what Greinke signs for. He'll get 4/60 easy...maybe more. If you give Marcum 3 yrs you might get a yr and a half out of him. 

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't judge a pitcher by his "won/loss record," and I didn't mean to include Sanchez with Marcum in the 1/3 of the price tag.  Sanchez will likely get 80+ million, but none of it matters at the end of the day, because Zach Greinke isn't an option for the Sox.  The subject has been beaten to death, yet it still comes up. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Hmmmm...80m for a 10 win a yr pitcher? Now that is crazy....and....era is the most misleading stat to judge a pitcher, w's and l's is the only thing that matters. 

    [/QUOTE]

    W-L?  That is absurd.  W-L record is the only thing that matters when judging a TEAM;  it is a terrible way to judge a PITCHER.

    Extend the logic:  if a pitcher strikes out 27 batters to start a game, but the 3rd strike is dropped on the last pitch leading to a 4-base throwing error so the pitcher loses the game 1-0, did he have a bad game?  Because that is what you are saying when you write "w's and l's is the only thing that matters".

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes....but we can go the other way also. How about when a pitcher is up 8-0 in the 3rd inn and instead of bearing down on every pitch, he throws strikes so as not to walk batters and ends up winning 12-5. Giving up 5 runs in 7 innings. It would inflate his era, but he would get the win. When a pitcher has a big lead like that they are taught to throw strikes....don' t walk anyone. Stay out of the big inning, right. A really good pitcher doesn't care about era....only wins and loses. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Felix hernandez had a 13-12 record and won a Cy Yound award because most baseball people realize that his W-L record didnt tell the real story of what kind of year he really had and what kind of a pitcher he really was.

    He lost a lot of 2-1, 1-0 type games because he had no run support...His other stats besides w-l were outstanding...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Dude...you were prob one of those fat kids that sat at the end of the bench and wished you could get on the mound and compete. Tell me what you ve done...at any level, and I ll match up. Zachary Greinke is a top 10 pitcher in all of MLB and will get get paid accordingly, as he should. Spin your stats over 9 yrs somewhere else, will ya....if the red sox want to really compete....they need studs....aka, Pedro, Schill, etc....the closets to those guysout the is Greinke....not Marcum..".or Sanchez....case closed. 

    Does bowling, pool, and poker count?  Darts?  If the sport depended on brute force, I could hold my own.  I could shoot from the outside, and played regularly against some of the guys on a Division I school (low-end Div I) without getting embarrassed.  Tore my ankle up pretty good and was reduced to calendar speed after that.

    You could say Greinke is top-10, but you don't support that with data.

    8 SPs in the NL made the AS team, Greinke did not.

    9 pitchers in the NL got CY votes, and Greinke got none.

    In 2011, 12 pitchers got CY votes in the NL, but none for Greinke.

    • 2010, no votes.
    • 2008, no votes.
    • 2007, none
    • 2006, nada
    • 2005, zilch

    So you tell me he is a top-10 pitcher, but for one year, never made the AS team, and never got a CY vote, not a  single vote.

    So where has he finished in ERA?

    • #27 in 2012
    • #58 in 2011
    • #63 in 2010
    • #22 in 2008
    • #24 in 2007

    So gain, he's a top-10 pitcher, but has only one season where he finished in the top-20 in ERA?

    [/QUOTE]

    First, I am not for signing Greinke, but the numbers do support him as a top 10 starter the last 4 years anyways:

    xFIP: #3 at 3.15 (behind Halladay and Lee and ahead of felix, Verlander & CC)

    WAR: #5 at 23.5 (Just behind Felix and ahead of Cc Sab.)

    tERA #6 at 3.27 (Just ahead of Wainwright & Halladay)

    SIERA #4 at 3.20 (Just ahead of Halladay & Hamels)

     

    Go back 6 years (2007-2012):

    #4 in xFIP (3.34) Just 0.02 behind King Felix, but ahead of CC, Lee...

    #7 in WAR (29.6) Ahead of Lincecum, Beckett, Hamels, Lester, Shileds...

    #5 in tERA (3.46) Just ahead of Verlander, CC, Cain...

    #2 in SIERA (3.38) Ahead of everyone but Halladay.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    The issue with FIP is that it is a tool that tries to predict what your true ERA should be.  For one season, it is more accurate than ERA.  However, over a longer and longer period of time, ERA is the more true mark of pitching.

    This is similar with almost any stat.  When a guy has a low BABIP relative to his career, you expect a rebound.  When he has 3 straight years of bad BABIP, then at some point, his new BABIP becomes the expectation.  Over 3 years, and 604 IPs, Greinke is #50 in ERA.

    If you remember my argument against the Pujols contract last year, part of it was that the LAA had to be near certain that his 2011 .906 OPS was an outlier, and not part of an age-related decline.  It's a bad contract, imo, even if he reverts back to his 2010 numbers.  It becomes an epically bad contract if your starting point is a .906.

    I see the same thing with Greinke.  Suppose, and there is absolutely no reason not to, that his 2010, 2011, and 2012 numbers are going to be similar to his 2013, 2014, and 2015 numbers?  The only two choices I see are to pay him what he is worth over the past 3 seasons, or explain why Greinke is going to revert to his numbers from four years ago.

     
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