It's a 2 yr bridge, not 1 like people think. Signing Greinke and Hamilton now is not the same as signing Agon and Crawford....here is why

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    posted at 11/28/2012 8:27 PM EST

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    I think it is not acceptable to simply write off 2013 in hopes of being better in 2014. There is nothing to indicate that that will work out. You can call us whiners and crybabies and spoiled , but many of us true Sox fans want and expect to be contenders every year.  That is my belief. 



    I may think we won't be serious contenders in 2013, but all of my plans, including the ones that I trade Ells, Breslow, Salty, Sweeney and R Hill (FAs after 2013) make us better in 2013 that we look right now.

    I've been a Sox fan since the early 70's. For over 30 years I lamented that I'd trade 10 last place finishes for just one ring. After 2004, I got spoiled. 2007 was awesome, but I am not saying we should finish in last place ever again. I am just being realistic about being "SERIOUIS" contenders in 2013. Maybe we are just arguing semantics here, but to me, for us to become serious contenders, we'd have to go out an way overpay 2 free agents that are not worth sacrificing future budget room to try and go all out in 2013. We'll not win in 2013, and be left with nothing for Rlls and other FA-s to be, and long contracts that will cripple us for years and years.

    There is a good to strong possibility that Greinke, Hamilton or others will be the next Crawford, Lackey, Beckett...

    We may not get the Dodgers or anyone else to save us from ourselves again.

     

  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    posted at 11/28/2012 8:36 PM EST

     

    Our payroll after arbitration sits at around 80 M.  

     

    Actually, I figure we will easily be over $100M after all the arb and pre-arb signings...

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 8.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)

    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    Gomes    $5M    ($5M in '14)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)

    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$68M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $105M, not counting non-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    NON-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen

    Gomez

    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Webster

    C Carpenter

    A Wilson

    S Wright

    D Butler

    C Vazquez

    A Hassan

    Maybe we'll be at about $110M before any trades or future signing(s).

    Trading Salty or others (Ells?) might bring that down some.

     

  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 12:03 AM EST

    Definitely at least a two year Bridge, maybe even 3. It's incredible how fast they lost all of their talent. A couple of years ago they were w.s. favorites and now they may be the worst team or at least close to it in baseball.

     

  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 12:03 AM EST

    Definitely at least a two year Bridge, maybe even 3. It's incredible how fast they lost all of their talent. A couple of years ago they were w.s. favorites and now they may be the worst team or at least close to it in baseball.

     

  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 12:03 AM EST

    Definitely at least a two year Bridge, maybe even 3. It's incredible how fast they lost all of their talent. A couple of years ago they were w.s. favorites and now they may be the worst team or at least close to it in baseball.

     

  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 12:03 AM EST

    Definitely at least a two year Bridge, maybe even 3. It's incredible how fast they lost all of their talent. A couple of years ago they were w.s. favorites and now they may be the worst team or at least close to it in baseball.

     

  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 12:05 AM EST

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Our payroll after arbitration sits at around 80 M.  

     

    Actually, I figure we will easily be over $100M after all the arb and pre-arb signings...

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 8.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)

    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    Gomes    $5M    ($5M in '14)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)

    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$68M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $105M, not counting non-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    NON-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen

    Gomez

    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Webster

    C Carpenter

    A Wilson

    S Wright

    D Butler

    C Vazquez

    A Hassan

    Maybe we'll be at about $110M before any trades or future signing(s).

    Trading Salty or others (Ells?) might bring that down some.




    Are those arb numbers from a site like MLBTR or FG, or are they just your personal guesses Moon?

    Either way, I think 100-110M is about right I we sign all our arb eligible guys. Sign swish, Naps and maybe a trade for a pitcher and we should be around 140M. I guess around 140M for payroll this year and going up to possibly 160M  by 2014...

     

  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 1:27 AM EST

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Our payroll after arbitration sits at around 80 M.  

     

    Actually, I figure we will easily be over $100M after all the arb and pre-arb signings...

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 8.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)

    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    Gomes    $5M    ($5M in '14)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)

    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$68M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $105M, not counting non-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    NON-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen

    Gomez

    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Webster

    C Carpenter

    A Wilson

    S Wright

    D Butler

    C Vazquez

    A Hassan

    Maybe we'll be at about $110M before any trades or future signing(s).

    Trading Salty or others (Ells?) might bring that down some.




    Are those arb numbers from a site like MLBTR or FG, or are they just your personal guesses Moon?

    Either way, I think 100-110M is about right I we sign all our arb eligible guys. Sign swish, Naps and maybe a trade for a pitcher and we should be around 140M. I guess around 140M for payroll this year and going up to possibly 160M  by 2014...



    My guesses. I'm not an expert on arb prices. Do you see anything that jumps out as wrong?

     

  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 1:27 AM EST

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Our payroll after arbitration sits at around 80 M.  

     

    Actually, I figure we will easily be over $100M after all the arb and pre-arb signings...

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 8.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)

    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    Gomes    $5M    ($5M in '14)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)

    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$68M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $105M, not counting non-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    NON-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen

    Gomez

    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Webster

    C Carpenter

    A Wilson

    S Wright

    D Butler

    C Vazquez

    A Hassan

    Maybe we'll be at about $110M before any trades or future signing(s).

    Trading Salty or others (Ells?) might bring that down some.




    Are those arb numbers from a site like MLBTR or FG, or are they just your personal guesses Moon?

    Either way, I think 100-110M is about right I we sign all our arb eligible guys. Sign swish, Naps and maybe a trade for a pitcher and we should be around 140M. I guess around 140M for payroll this year and going up to possibly 160M  by 2014...



    My guesses. I'm not an expert on arb prices. Do you see anything that jumps out as wrong?

     

  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 4:40 AM EST

    Yeah always love the bridge year talk. 

     

  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 4:40 AM EST

    Yeah always love the bridge year talk. 

     

  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 5:54 AM EST

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Our payroll after arbitration sits at around 80 M.  

     

    Actually, I figure we will easily be over $100M after all the arb and pre-arb signings...

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 8.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)

    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    Gomes    $5M    ($5M in '14)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)

    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$68M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $105M, not counting non-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    NON-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen

    Gomez

    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Webster

    C Carpenter

    A Wilson

    S Wright

    D Butler

    C Vazquez

    A Hassan

    Maybe we'll be at about $110M before any trades or future signing(s).

    Trading Salty or others (Ells?) might bring that down some.




    Didn't we trade Aviles to the Blue Jays?

     

  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 6:52 AM EST

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Our payroll after arbitration sits at around 80 M.  

     

    Actually, I figure we will easily be over $100M after all the arb and pre-arb signings...

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 8.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)

    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    Gomes    $5M    ($5M in '14)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)

    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$68M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $105M, not counting non-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    NON-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen

    Gomez

    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Webster

    C Carpenter

    A Wilson

    S Wright

    D Butler

    C Vazquez

    A Hassan

    Maybe we'll be at about $110M before any trades or future signing(s).

    Trading Salty or others (Ells?) might bring that down some.




    Are those arb numbers from a site like MLBTR or FG, or are they just your personal guesses Moon?

    Either way, I think 100-110M is about right I we sign all our arb eligible guys. Sign swish, Naps and maybe a trade for a pitcher and we should be around 140M. I guess around 140M for payroll this year and going up to possibly 160M  by 2014...



    My guesses. I'm not an expert on arb prices. Do you see anything that jumps out as wrong?



    I think what the players are actually being paid this year is not as important as the AAV for tax purposes.  Pedroia's AAV is 6.8 million and Lester's is 6 million.  But I would say our payroll for lux tax, including benefits etc., does sit at about $100 million taking the arbs into account.

     

  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 2:05 PM EST

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Our payroll after arbitration sits at around 80 M.  

     

    Actually, I figure we will easily be over $100M after all the arb and pre-arb signings...

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 8.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)

    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    Gomes    $5M    ($5M in '14)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)

    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$68M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $105M, not counting non-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    NON-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen

    Gomez

    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Webster

    C Carpenter

    A Wilson

    S Wright

    D Butler

    C Vazquez

    A Hassan

    Maybe we'll be at about $110M before any trades or future signing(s).

    Trading Salty or others (Ells?) might bring that down some.




    Are those arb numbers from a site like MLBTR or FG, or are they just your personal guesses Moon?

    Either way, I think 100-110M is about right I we sign all our arb eligible guys. Sign swish, Naps and maybe a trade for a pitcher and we should be around 140M. I guess around 140M for payroll this year and going up to possibly 160M  by 2014...



    My guesses. I'm not an expert on arb prices. Do you see anything that jumps out as wrong?



    I think what the players are actually being paid this year is not as important as the AAV for tax purposes.  Pedroia's AAV is 6.8 million and Lester's is 6 million.  But I would say our payroll for lux tax, including benefits etc., does sit at about $100 million taking the arbs into account.



    True, I haven't broken it down by AVV. I'll do that soon, but I really think it is all moot right now, since we won't get that close to the limit this winter anyways.

     

  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    posted at 11/29/2012 2:07 PM EST

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Our payroll after arbitration sits at around 80 M.  

     

    Actually, I figure we will easily be over $100M after all the arb and pre-arb signings...

    Updated:

    Players signed for 2013 (and beyond): We have only 8.


    Lackey      $15.25M  ($15.25M in 2014 & min wage in 2015)

    Papi           $14M  (plus $1M bonus & $11M for 2014)

    Lester       $11.625M ($13M in 2014 club option w/ $0.25M buyout)

    Pedroia    $10M        ($10.25M in 2014, $11M club option in 2015 w/ $0.5M buyout)

    Buchholtz  $5.5M  ($7.7M in '14, $12M in '15, $13M/$13.5M option in '16 & '17)

    Gomes    $5M    ($5M in '14)

    D. Ross       $3.1M  ($3.1M in '14)

    Iglesias     $2.063M (Then arb)


    ~$68M in signed players.



    Players with arbitration years remaining:
     Player      (2012 salary) Arb year(s) Est. 2013 salary
    Ellsbury        ($8.05M)    3 of 3    $8-10M
    A Bailey          ($3.9M)    2 of 3    $3-5M
    Saltalmacchia ($2.5M)    3 of 3   $5-7M
    C Breslow   ($1.795M)    3 of 3   $3-4M
    R Sweeney   ($1.75M)     3 of 3   $2-3M
    D. Bard         ($1.613M)   2 of  4  $1.7-2M
    A Aceves          ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    M Aviles           ($1.2M)    2 of 3   $2-4M
    A Miller            ($1.04M)  2 of 3   $2-3M
    F Morales         ($850K)   2 of 3   $2-3M
    Rich Hill           ($725M)   3 of 3   $.8M-1M
    Total Est: $35M to $  45M

    That puts our budget at about $105M, not counting non-arb contracts and any players we will acquire.

     

    NON-arb players (on 40 man roster):
    Middlebrooks
    de la Rosa
    Doubront
    Lavarnway
    Ciriaco
    Tazawa
    Mortensen

    Gomez

    Sands
    Nava
    Kalish
    Atchison
    Beato
    Melancon
    Webster

    C Carpenter

    A Wilson

    S Wright

    D Butler

    C Vazquez

    A Hassan

    Maybe we'll be at about $110M before any trades or future signing(s).

    Trading Salty or others (Ells?) might bring that down some.




    Are those arb numbers from a site like MLBTR or FG, or are they just your personal guesses Moon?

    Either way, I think 100-110M is about right I we sign all our arb eligible guys. Sign swish, Naps and maybe a trade for a pitcher and we should be around 140M. I guess around 140M for payroll this year and going up to possibly 160M  by 2014...



    My guesses. I'm not an expert on arb prices. Do you see anything that jumps out as wrong?



    I think what the players are actually being paid this year is not as important as the AAV for tax purposes.  Pedroia's AAV is 6.8 million and Lester's is 6 million.  But I would say our payroll for lux tax, including benefits etc., does sit at about $100 million taking the arbs into account.



    True, I haven't broken it down by AVV. I'll do that soon, but I really think it is all moot right now, since we won't get that close to the limit this winter anyways.

     

  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    posted at 12/4/2012 5:54 PM EST

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    I read where people are comparing signing Greinke and Hamilton to the signings of Crawford and Agon. It's not...when we signed those 2 guys we had an already high payroll with a lot of vet long term contracts, and very little in cheap farm talant on the horizon. We have a really deep and talented farm but it is not, as people say, a yr away. More like 2 or 3 yrs away before they can step in and make an impact. And I believe they will, but not untill at least 2014... Or more likely 2015. We should sign Greinke and Hamilton for 5 yrs apiece to give a shot to compete for a title while we still have Lester, Papi, Pedey, Buch, Ells etc...at the end of 2014 we will free up a ton of payroll. Papi, Lester, Ells, Lackey, Ross, Gomes will all be gone....that' s 60/65 mil being replaced by Boggy, Barnes, Bradley, etc....nice cheap studs. In 2015 Greinke and Hamilton will prob not be worth what we will be paying them, but we should have a ton of really cheap impact players that will off set their costs. This time is not the same as a few yrs back when Theo mis managed the teams payroll. He had no choice, there was no cheap talant on the horizon. We can win now....and for and be very competitive in the future if we sign these 2, do it Ben.....don't listen too the pundits



    I think it is pretty clear now thatit's is a 2 yr bridge. The signings of Ross, Naps, and now Victorino ( 2,3,and3yr deals) that was the point of this thread. Some people on here were saying just one yr. the prospects we have down in the minors are 2, maybe 3 yrs away from being impact players. We will start filtering them in starting late next yr and in 2014 with the hopes that they will blossom in 2015. My point of signing Hamilton and Greinke was to point out that it would be the ONLY way that we couLd compete in 13and14. We are now looking at at best 88 wins, and at worst, 75 wins for the next 2 yrs. red sox fans..have fun paying the highest prices in major league baseball...

     

  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from darrylfries. Show darrylfries's posts

    posted at 12/4/2012 6:05 PM EST

    Agread it's always been a two to three year window. The signings this year more than confirm that.  The folks that are expecting a playoff team will be sadely disappinted  Not so sure we can get 88 wins more like 85 tops. Wolud have rather seen the young guys in the minors given a chance instead of fielding a so so team.

     

  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from darrylfries. Show darrylfries's posts

    posted at 12/4/2012 6:05 PM EST

    Agread it's always been a two to three year window. The signings this year more than confirm that.  The folks that are expecting a playoff team will be sadely disappinted  Not so sure we can get 88 wins more like 85 tops. Wolud have rather seen the young guys in the minors given a chance instead of fielding a so so team.