It's never been "The Pitching"

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    hmm softy I'm not comfortable with the idea we have to score ten or more runs to win games are you? 

    "f we all agree it is the hitting will you please stop posting the same thing over and over every three days?"

    True! yeah, totally, it's totally about the pitching
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from stillgridlocked. Show stillgridlocked's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    Just Beckett, Lackey and Crawford are in the area of $50 million a year. (thanks Theo) That's just shy of the entire Tampa payroll.

    Guaranteed contracts in baseball are a huge disadvantage when you sign the wrong players to long term deals. Maybe Crawford is salvagable.


    In Response to Re: It's never been "The Pitching":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: It's never been "The Pitching" : It has to go away. Have to get rid of the bad contracts and absorb the loss. In business they call it " sunk cost."  Nothing you can do but eat it. Rebuild with youth.
    Posted by dgalehouse[/QUOTE]
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chilliwings. Show Chilliwings's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    In Response to Re: It's never been "The Pitching":
    [QUOTE]If we all agree it is the hitting will you please stop posting the same thing over and over every three days?
    Posted by snakeoil123[/QUOTE]

    No, he won't.  Nor will he give any detail whatsoever as to whom the Sox should have / could get and what we would give up for that "young RH superstar OF".  Mr. Hanky is all hat and no cattle....
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    Let's see. Coming into today's game the RS had allowed 139 R (tied for worst in the AL). They had scored 136 R (second best in the AL). So their run differential is -2.

    Texas meanwhile (1st in runs scored) has only allowed 87 runs. This gives them a run differential of +59. They have a W-L record of 17-9.

    So I guess if the RS had the "right handed middle of the order profile bat that their pitching would not be an issue because that one hitter would have created enough runs to create a +59 differential. That would mean the RS would have scored 195 R in 26 games. This would be a mere 1,215 runs over 162 games and would neutralize the fact that the RS are on a pace to surrender 866 R. (6 more runs than the 2011 Orioles gave up.)

    As it is this depleted and flawed offense is on pace 847 runs.

    Using run differential as a predictive factor in W-L, if the RS scored at their current pace over 162 games and pitched to the 2011 league average in runs allowed, they would win 90 plus games. If the pitching remains the same and the offense the same over 162 the run differential would suggest they win under 80 games (their current pace).

    Yeah, the offense could be better, the offense could be more balanced but it is the pitching that is making the RS a sub-.500 club.




     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    i didnt say it was our hitting -  i said it was our feast/famine inconsistency and our loust top of the rotation....

    if you think our offense is top caliber then i have a bridge to sell you...see below

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    Georom, all offenses have ups and downs. If you can't see that pitching is the primary problem, you are ignorant.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    You know???   Softy has finally convinced me of something!  Our hitting would definitely fix all our pitching problems.  A legit RH hitter would certainly bring those high ERA's way down. 

    This guy is brilliant!
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    In Response to Re: It's never been "The Pitching":
    [QUOTE]Georom, all offenses have ups and downs. If you can't see that pitching is the primary problem, you are ignorant.
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    i dont disagree w/u, but the sabergeeks are wrong about our offense...it stinks
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    We're first in runs scored.

    We're last in runs allowed.

    Only a moron takes season long totals and pretends that has any import in a competition that is game to game. You can't carry over 10 runs from one game to score runs against the fantastic pitching of the A's and O's in those pitcher parks.

    And to take an average from all games and say "look at the run differential, it's the pitching". ONly a moron would say that! George is on the money. Take the game logs and do the math you thundering herd of drones!

    The modern day DH/AL Red Sox championship identity has never been about "the pitching". Its been about a couple of good starters and one or two pen arms who are good, and Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in their prime, floating the boats of other role players.

    As for the whining about how great the Rays are in "winning", get back to me when they win championships. Long season, and the Rays will be exposed at the end, as they always are!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    In Response to Re: It's never been "The Pitching":
    [QUOTE]We're first in runs scored. We're last in runs allowed. Only a moron takes season long totals and pretends that has any import in a competition that is game to game. You can't carry over 10 runs from one game to score runs against the fantastic pitching of the A's and O's in those pitcher parks. And to take an average from all games and say "look at the run differential, it's the pitching". ONly a moron would say that! George is on the money. Take the game logs and do the math you thundering herd of drones! The modern day DH/AL Red Sox championship identity has never been about "the pitching". Its been about a couple of good starters and one or two pen arms who are good, and Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in their prime, floating the boats of other role players. As for the whining about how great the Rays are in "winning", get back to me when they win championships. Long season, and the Rays will be exposed at the end, as they always are!
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    So the Sox need to ride the backs of the bats, like, say the 2010 Giants did?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    In Response to Re: It's never been "The Pitching":
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: It's never been "The Pitching" : So the Sox need to ride the backs of the bats, like, say the 2010 Giants did?
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]
     The 2010 Giants, while known for their season of great pitching, did, in fact ride the bats to a 4-1 WS win over the Rangers. Scoring 5.8 runs per game well over their seasonal avg of 4.3, the Cardinals swamped the Rangers again in offense, 38-26 the following year. The Yankees 2009, the Phils 2008, and the Sox 2007 were all offensive juggernauts.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    What percentage of games should a team win when scoring...
    Red= Better than league average / Blue + worse than league average
                       AL         Sox
         total '12  '11    '12  '11
    0 runs?     0    0       0      0
    1 run?      14  10    33   17
    2 runs?    12  24     0    13
    3 runs?    35  39     0    41
    4 runs?    61  52    50   57
    5 runs?    71  64    - -   47
    6 runs?    72  73    100 69
    7 runs?    91  78    100 78
    8 runs?    90  89     --  100
    9 runs?    73  93      0  100
    10+?        94  94     84   96

    2012:
    The Sox are 1-9 in games where we scored 1-3 runs. Scoring 1-3 runs is bad, no doubt, but a 10% winning percentage is worse than league average for low scoring games (22%). That would suggest that our staff has not helped out when the offense is struggling like other teams do. 

    We are 2-10 in games where we scored 1-4 runs: a 17% win %.
    The league winning % is 33. Again, these numbers suggest that we should be winning more of our low scoring games than we have been thus far this year.

    We're losing 12% more games than the avg AL team in 1-3 run games.
    We're losing 16% more games than the avg AL team in 1-4 run games.

    We did much better in low scoring games in 2011.
                     League  Sox
    1-3 runs   25%     25%
    1-4 runs   33%     38%

    We are 9-2 in games with 6 or more runs scored in 2012 (82%).
    The AL is  89-14 (85%).

    This suggests that we should be winning more than we have been in high scoring games.

    In low scoring and high scoring games, our staff seems to be not pulling their share in terms of league averages.

    We did better in 2011 when scoring 6+ runs:
    League: 596-114 (85% winning)
    Sox:           55-7    (89% winning)

    It is clear that the shift in wins has come from lower than league winning average percentages in low and high scoring games.

    A Look at runs allowed:
    We are 5-3 in games with 1-3 runs allowed. (63%) AL: 106-30 (78%)
    We are 6-5 in games with 1-4 runs allowed. (55%) AL: 127-63 (67%)
    We are 8-6 in games with 1-5 runs allowed. (57%) AL: 139-93 (60%)
    We are 2-8 in games with 6+ runs allowed.  (20%)  AL:  16-89  (15%)

    These 2012 numbers suggest that our offense has let down our staff by winning less games than the norm when our staff has pitched well, but has won more games than the norm when our staff has pitched poorly.

    It appears that both the bats and the arms are too blame for the poor start, but the pitching by a larger percentage.

    Want to play the "blame game" game by game?

    If you combine 2011 and 2012, the winning percent for games with these amount of runs scored should be and compare to (Sox 2012 results)...

    1  11%  (1-2) should be 0-3 (+1 for pitching)
    2  22%  (0-3) should be 0-3
    3  38%  (0-4) should be 2-2 (-2 for the pitching)
    4  53%  (1-1) should be 1-1
    5  65%  (0-0)
    6  73%  (2-0) should be 1-1 (+1 for the pitching)
    7  80%  (1-0) should be 1-0
    8  89%  (0-0)
    9  91%  (0-1) should be 1-0 (-1 for the pitching)
    10+ 94% (6-1) should be 7-0 (-1 for the pitching)
    Total: -2 wins by pitching staff.

    league Win% 2011-2012 with Runs allowed 2011-2012 avg with 
    (Sox 2012 results):
    1  89%  0-1  should be 1-0 (-1 offense)
    2  79%  3-0  should be 2-1 (+1 offense)
    3  62%  2-2  should be 2-2
    4  47%  1-2  should be 1-2
    5  35%  2-1  should be 1-2 (+1 offense)
    6  27%  2-3  should be 1-4 (+1 offense)
    7  20%  0-1  should be 0-1
    8  11%  0-0
    9    9%  0-0
    10+ 3% 0-4 should be 0-4
    Total: +2 wins for the offense

    It looks like the pitching staff is more to blame if we go game by game as well (minus 2 to plus 2) 



     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    We are 9-2 in games with 6 or more runs scored in 2012 (82%).
    The AL is  89-14 (85%).

    This suggests that we should be winning more than we have been in high scoring games.

     I have to challenge that. The league is winning at a 85% clip, "more" winning would take us to 10-1, or 91%, or 6 points higher in winning percentage, the current record of 9-2 is within 3 points, given the small sample size it gets much closer to the expected rate, than your statement that more winning ought to have been the outcome.

    6  73%  (2-0) should be 1-1 (+1 for the pitching)

     This can't be what you intended, the league is winning at 73%, and you project a  50-50 split in two games?

     My corrections won't change your conclusion by much, -1 pitching, +2 offense, but it does adjust the narrative.
     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    Notin -your solution is...

    and how would you suggest BenC accomplish your goal for the Sox?
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    In Response to Re: It's never been "The Pitching":
    [QUOTE]We're first in runs scored. We're last in runs allowed. Only a moron takes season long totals and pretends that has any import in a competition that is game to game. You can't carry over 10 runs from one game to score runs against the fantastic pitching of the A's and O's in those pitcher parks. And to take an average from all games and say "look at the run differential, it's the pitching". ONly a moron would say that! George is on the money. Take the game logs and do the math you thundering herd of drones! The modern day DH/AL Red Sox championship identity has never been about "the pitching". Its been about a couple of good starters and one or two pen arms who are good, and Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in their prime, floating the boats of other role players. As for the whining about how great the Rays are in "winning", get back to me when they win championships. Long season, and the Rays will be exposed at the end, as they always are!
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    I just love arguing with a lawyer who doesn't have a handful of paralegals doing his research (and probably his thinking) for him.  You are once again unmasked as all hat and no cattle.

    The moonslav analysis does in fact go through each and every game for not just the Sox but other teams and demonstrates that the run differential is definitive.
    When you have rotten pitching, it's hard to win games, period.  And when you have terrific pitching, the wins will come with just decent hitting. 

    Better still, are the two WS championship teams of 2004 and 2007, about whom you also know nothing.  The 2004 team had great hitting, but also the 3d best ERA in the AL.  While Manny and Papi were a big part of that lineup, it was one of those years when the lineup really had no holes.  Mueller hitting .283 for the season usually batted 9th, for example.     

    And the 2007 team had the best ERA in the AL.  Also, by 2007 Manny was fading and had just 20 dingers and 30 fewer rbi's than Mike Lowell, who led the team with 120, more than Ortiz. 

    What you don't know about the Sox and MLB is amazing. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    We are 9-2 in games with 6 or more runs scored in 2012 (82%).
    The AL is  89-14 (85%).

    This suggests that we should be winning more than we have been in high scoring games.

     I have to challenge that. The league is winning at a 85% clip, "more" winning would take us to 10-1, or 91%, or 6 points higher in winning percentage, the current record of 9-2 is within 3 points, given the small sample size it gets much closer to the expected rate, than your statement that more winning ought to have been the outcome.

    6  73%  (2-0) should be 1-1 (+1 for the pitching)

     This can't be what you intended, the league is winning at 73%, and you project a  50-50 split in two games?

     My corrections won't change your conclusion by much, -1 pitching, +2 offense, but it does adjust the narrative.

    You can't have it both ways. You are right on the first point, but on the second: playing 2 games the choices are 0%, 50% and 100%. The closest number to 73% is 50% not 100%, thus the 1-1 choice.

    On the 9-2 record in 6+ runss cored games, if you go by the numbers for 6 runs, 7 runs, 8 runs, ect..., then the game we lost when we scored 9 runs would be flipped to a win, since the league avg winning % is over 51% (100% is closer to the norm than 0%). 

    The fact is, even though these are tiny sample sizes, going by winning% expectations in games by exact runs scored and exact runs allowed, the offense has won 2 more games "than we should have", and the pitching has lost 2 more than we should have. Our record is what it should be, but the fault has clearly been on our pitching (and fielding, I might add): not our bats.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    The fault is on the offense, not the pitching. Reminds me of seeing all those absurd sample cuts about how valuable Tim Wastefield was. Game logs is what is all about, and the winning identity of the Red Sox is about a more consistent offense than the competition. Middlebrooks just reflected what a winning team identity is, not that InEpstein or Cherry has a clue.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    trying to choose one thing that is most wrong about this team is an exercise in futility.....we need new blood...end of story....not new managerial blood - new players
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    hank, you've got to be the most idiotic person on this board and that includes pike and bill... pitching clearly isn't the problem even though our starters only go 4 innings on a good day and until recently our BP was struggling to get ONE out.

    its pitching you moron..

    also who is the superstar RH bat? whats his name? where are we getting him from? how do we get him? or do you just type without thinking? i wont hold my breath for a response
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    In response to "Re: It's never been "The Pitching"": [QUOTE]The fault is on the offense, not the pitching. Reminds me of seeing all those absurd sample cuts about how valuable Tim Wastefield was. Game logs is what is all about, and the winning identity of the Red Sox is about a more consistent offense than the competition. Middlebrooks just reflected what a winning team identity is, not that InEpstein or Cherry has a clue. Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE] Having been destroyed on page two, you are grasping at straws on this one. Middlebrooks slam tied a game buchholz was giving away.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    Wrong! I destroyed Moonswhemp on Wastefield, who didn't get millions. Middlebrooks just did what the winning identity of a team in Fenway park is, get off the snide and belt one out to LF and in the huge gaps to win games where 5 or 6 runs in Fenway is not bad pitching.

    Max, get out of here with your yearly "it's the pitching"!
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    In Response to Re: It's never been "The Pitching":
    [QUOTE]Wrong! I destroyed Moonswhemp on Wastefield, who didn't get millions. Middlebrooks just did what the winning identity of a team in Fenway park is, get off the snide and belt one out to LF and in the huge gaps to win games where 5 or 6 runs in Fenway is not bad pitching. Max, get out of here with your yearly "it's the pitching"!
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    WRONG! you got destroyed.. don't you find it weird that nobody on the board EVER agrees with you? or is it just that we're all crazy and you are the only reasonable one here swimming in an ocean of dolt...
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    Wrong, Moonshwemp got destoryed by claiming Wastefield was worth a million and pitched well with a 5 plus ERA over 3 years. Despite all of his silly snipets, the math is simply, this team wins when it scores 4 or more runs, and almost never wins when it scores 3 more runs.

    Get out here, tatoo brain!
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: It's never been

    you mean to tell me the less you score the harder it is to win games?????

    ZOMG!!! you should write a book, actually write two.

    thanks for opening my eyes on that one.. and to think i went my entire life without ever realizing that. i feel like i should be paying you
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: It's never been "The Pitching"

    Middlebrooks plays RH superstar "profile" for a day.

    Meanwhile, "superstar" Adrian Gonzalez counts his money and sleeps well at night.
     
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