Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    The Sox are making a big mistake if they dont resign Ellsbury.



    If Jacoby's cost will be over $75M/5 as it is likely to be, it's only a "big mistake" if the guy(s) we get instead for that money end up doing worse than Jacoby in the following years.

    I seriously doubt we let Jacoby walk and not spend the money saved on something worthwhile.

    Yes, it's a gamble. Anyone we sign might not be able to handle the pressure cooker that is Boston, but it is not like signing Ellsbury for 5 or more years is gamble free.

    I'd offer him $13M/1 or whatever it takes to get the draft compensation or at most $50M/4, which means he walks.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to jimedfred's comment:


    I'd love to keep Ellsbury , if could be done at reasonable cost, less than $ 14 mil / year for 4 yrs. Even would try offering a one year pillow should he wish to try re-establishing long term value.

    But if we kept Ells, I'm pretty sure we wouldn't start Bradley and Victorino at the other spots. just not enough power from corner of spots. Bradley really hasn't demonstrated enough with the bat yet, IMO. My long range projection for JBJr. is basically Brett Butler with more arm.




    soxprospects.com projects this OF for 2014:

    LF: Victorino

    CF: Bradley

    RF: Brentz

    4th OF'er: Nava

    Trade: Gomes

    The rest?

    C Lava

    1B Middlebrooks

    2B Pedroia

    3B Bogaerts

    SS Iglesias

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

    Bogaerts has a .295 BA in AA/AAA combined.

    281 ABs

    10 HRs

    6 3Bs

    12 2Bs

    .388 OBP

    .488 SLG

    .876 OPS

    In just AAA, he's hitting .242 in just 62 ABs.

    4 HRs

    .319/.435/.754

     

     

    Boggy not hitting? Hes been pretty much bashing the ball in Pawtucket.  If Boggy is ready and we keep Iglesias at short I think we talk about putting WMB at 1st.  Unless of course boggy moves to LF.  

    I found it interesting that WMB is helping the Xan man learn 3B down in Pawtucket.

     

     




    Bogy is only at 250 and was worse than that a couple days ago.  Am I missing something?  No disrespect intended Hugh I have only seen him play once since being promoted.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    SSS.  Look at the power numbers

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The re-signing Ellsbury debate has been raging for months and months.

    It won't be easy finding a cheap .360+ OBP solution to the CF position next year, but I hope we don't pay the market rate for Ellsbury.

     



    That's an interesting way to put it.  I'm not sure what that means.  I think he's going to be the rate-setter for OF's this year so whatever he gets is going to be the Market Rate.  If you mean you don't want the Sox to pay him to be the highest paid OF ever, I might agree with that.  Then again I might not.

    My hope (and I confess to not being optimistic about this) is that the GM's are going to look at these long term high value contracts and say, "No more", and stick to it deciding that they're too risky.  I'd be reluctant to sign any player for more than five years, and only an exceptional one for five. 

    Since I see Ellsbury as being exceptional I'd pay him 5@$15 or thereabouts.  I also think the only way we get him for that is if it's the highest offer and I think some fool will pay him more. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    The Sox are making a big mistake if they dont resign Ellsbury.

     



    If Jacoby's cost will be over $75M/5 as it is likely to be, it's only a "big mistake" if the guy(s) we get instead for that money end up doing worse than Jacoby in the following years.

     

    I seriously doubt we let Jacoby walk and not spend the money saved on something worthwhile.

    Yes, it's a gamble. Anyone we sign might not be able to handle the pressure cooker that is Boston, but it is not like signing Ellsbury for 5 or more years is gamble free.

    I'd offer him $13M/1 or whatever it takes to get the draft compensation or at most $50M/4, which means he walks.

    [/QUOTE]
     My take is to pay the money. We paid 70 million (5X14) for Drew and got little to show for it. Ellsbury has moved close to a .300 batting average and his OBP has been steadily rising. The guy leads the league in steals and plays excellent defense. Bradley stunk it up when he had his chance and while he still is a fine prospect, how do we know he can fill Ellsbury's shoes? If we had a salary cap I could understand the quibbling, but Henry can surely spring for whatever it takes to keep a proven player around.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    Unless Ellsbury starts hitting home runs he's not going to get any kind of crazy money. 

    In my opinion the Red Sox would be very, very foolish not to resign him. He can play here. I would hope all of us know this, but there is a mental make-up which can not play in Boston. 50 million over 5 years would be a bargain. I'm not so sure I'd go over 75 million for five years. 

    Things I consider are Bradley being a vaguely similar player, but one who has not yet shown he can hit here. 

    Ellsbury's past injuries don't concern me. He got smashed a couple of times and had busted parts. That is not the kind of chronic nagging stuff, or one thing after another type injuries which bother me. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    Bradley is going to be a good one. I have no doubt of that. If you can sign Ellsbury for a reasonable amount, do it. There are three outfield positions. No reason why they could not both play. The fact that they are similar types means nothing.

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    Bradley is going to be a good one. I have no doubt of that. If you can sign Ellsbury for a reasonable amount, do it. There are three outfield positions. No reason why they could not both play. The fact that they are similar types means nothing.

    Stabbed by Foulke.




    Yup, it's a must otherwise a trade because nobody on the FA market is better than Jacoby so the next step is a trade.  Our prospects are still just prospects at this point.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    The re-signing Ellsbury debate has been raging for months and months.

    It won't be easy finding a cheap .360+ OBP solution to the CF position next year, but I hope we don't pay the market rate for Ellsbury.

     

     



    That's an interesting way to put it.  I'm not sure what that means.  I think he's going to be the rate-setter for OF's this year so whatever he gets is going to be the Market Rate.  If you mean you don't want the Sox to pay him to be the highest paid OF ever, I might agree with that.  Then again I might not.

     

    My hope (and I confess to not being optimistic about this) is that the GM's are going to look at these long term high value contracts and say, "No more", and stick to it deciding that they're too risky.  I'd be reluctant to sign any player for more than five years, and only an exceptional one for five. 

    Since I see Ellsbury as being exceptional I'd pay him 5@$15 or thereabouts.  I also think the only way we get him for that is if it's the highest offer and I think some fool will pay him more. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I think the market will be $75M/5 low to $100M/6 tops (assuming he continues as is).

    I'd pass on $55M/4, so that means bye bye if it was up to me.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    ...but Henry can surely spring for whatever it takes to keep a proven player around.

    He hasn't proven he's worth more than $75M/5.

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    Losing Ellsbury changes the complexion of this team. 90% success rate in Stolen Bases in the Major Leagues, is big. Henderson type numbers, hard to find Lead-off hitters who are as good as Ellsbury.
    He can win you a game on a walk. Maybe Pedey, or Victorino, but nobody else can on the Sox. Definetly nobody in the Minors can do this.
    We gamble all the time on other teams Free Agents, and it is a gamble, but one of our own, who we know what we got we let them walk. Less of a gamble to me.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I'd offer him $13M/1 or whatever it takes to get the draft compensation or at most $50M/4, which means he walks.

    Yes. Offer him just enough so he walks and we get the comp.

    Then take the avoided expenditure / savings there and combine it with other savings like from Naps and get your impact rotation pitching, or a young, strong RH bat.

    We have a lot of ways to cover our needs in the OF and fill 1B/3B effectively.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    BJ Upton got 15/5yrs. Ells is a better all around player than Upton, no question. like Ive said over the last month. If he continues to go the way he is and ends up with numbers similar to 300BA 370+ OBP 50+ SB he will probably get be tween 16-18M per for 5+ years.

    If he ends upwith those numbers, Id pay him 16M for 5yrs without even thinking about it. Maybe 17M if the numbers are on the high end. Hes a game changer at the top of that lineup.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    Not one guy in the Majors or Minors, who is as good as Ellsbury in the Lead-off spot. Bradley can walk, but cant steal, last I looked he was 50% success rate in the Minors. They can replace an Outfielder, probably the same or even a little better, but losing that impact in the Lead-off spot will be big.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

    Not one guy in the Majors or Minors, who is as good as Ellsbury in the Lead-off spot. Bradley can walk, but cant steal, last I looked he was 50% success rate in the Minors. They can replace an Outfielder, probably the same or even a little better, but losing that impact in the Lead-off spot will be big.

     

     

    I see a lot of common sense responses but the most important may be the fact Ells can handle the fan pressure in Boston and can't be replaced very easily without an actual trade. 

    So do we?

    ... Lose a reliable player that changes the dynamic of the team for Comp and take our chances on the kids.

    ... Hit the FA market where there is only McLouth, or yet another "bridge type" player.

    ... Lose prospects by trading for another OF'r. 

    Tough call, I'm not sure this one should come down to settling for Comp.  I would lose guys like Drew, Hanrahan and Nap, then maybe offer Ells "who is still young" a 4 year 15.75mil contract with a fifth year team option.  If he walks for more we made him a fair offer considering previous injuries.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    Not only can he handle pressure, he handled unjustified abuse. 

    The stolen bases I thought were too obvious to bring up, but they don't seem to figure in some peoples thinking. The stolen bases are huge. A single or a walk is almost a certain double or triple. It's one thing to steal a few bases. This guy is a machine. If he were only a hair less aggressive I'd think he could have close to a 100% success rate, because 85% of possible pitcher-catcher combinations have no chance at all against him once he's on base. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    McLouth is not the only available OF'er on the market this winter.

    We can move Victorino to CF and have JBJ as the back-up.

     

    Ellsbury seems to handle the pressure in Boston, but if he walks and has a .400 OBP at his next stop, will the jacoby supporters say, "seeI told you so", of will they think, "wow, the Boston pressure must have kept him from doing this well here"?

    Ellsbury is doing very well right now. Earlier this year, the vast majority of posters were saying, "let him walk". Now, after a pretty small sample size of hot hitting, the tune has changed again. After 2011, many wanted us to try and extend him (not too easy with Boras as his agent). After 2012, most were fed up with all the injuries. After April 2013, let him walk. Now, some are looking to make him one of the top paid OF'ers in MLB. It's a yo-yo here based mostly on varying small sample size trends at the time.

    It's hard to know if Ellsbury is injury prone or not. He turns 30 this September, and if he is signed to 5 or 6 years, he will be 35 or 36 his last year. How will he age? How have players of his type aged in the past? Is he worth spending 1/10th or 12th of our 40 man payroll budget on?

    We certainly would miss his speed at the top of the order, but a .350 to .365 OBP is not really hard to find. Is finding a .380-.400 OBP with just 20 SBs as good as .360 and 80 SBs? How much is the cost differential? How much is a comp draft pick worth? Lots of tough questions to answer, and it's even harder to put all the answers together and judge which choice is best.

    Bora$$ (and some overzealous GM) will probably make the decision for us.

     

    Sox4ever.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    BJ Upton got 15/5yrs. Ells is a better all around player than Upton, no question

    And, if a team like the Braves will overpay for a guy like BJ, what will the next overzealous GM pony up for Jacoby? 

    I wouldn't be shocked if someone offers $100M/6 or $90M/5.

    I hope we don't try and outbid that!

    Sox4ever

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    BJ Upton got 15/5yrs. Ells is a better all around player than Upton, no question

    And, if a team like the Braves will overpay for a guy like BJ, what will the next overzealous GM pony up for Jacoby? 

    I wouldn't be shocked if someone offers $100M/6 or $90M/5.

    I hope we don't try and outbid that!

    Sox4ever




    I guessed between 16-18Mil per for 5-6 years. I think before the 2011 outlier of a season for Ells he proved he could be a 300 hitter with a 360+ OBP . He was trending up before the first injury. the going rate is the going rate and there is no doubt that Ellsbury is a huge game changer. Much much more than JBJ or Vic.

    He turns 30 in sept, so if he were to be offered a 5yr deal he would turn 35 at the end of that season. But in FA, most teams really pay for the first 3-4 years of a deal and hope to get good production the last year.

    Id go as high as 17M/5yrs depending on what the final numbers are because I believe he will be a 300 hitter for the majority of that deal. I also believe he will steal a ton of bases and get on base a lot. I still think he can have between 10-15HR too. Only 85M, so maybe he will get more. If he can, all the power to him. At least you make a very respectable offer.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    It still comes down to this: Which year worth of Ells are you buying?

    If the past is any guide, as soon as he gets a fat, long term deal he could revert to being brittle.

    This is his walk year guys. The only thing surprising here is how long it took for him to start generating some big money numbers.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    I guessed between 16-18Mil per for 5-6 years. I think before the 2011 outlier of a season for Ells he proved he could be a 300 hitter with a 360+ OBP .

    I don't think if you take away 2011, he "proved he could be a .360+ OBP" guy.

    2008: .336

    2009: .355

    2010: .241 (Injury)

    2012: .313 (Injury, but still 303 PAs)

    His 11: 1 SB/CS ratio is also way off his career charts. Not usre that is sustainable.

    I do think Jacoby rates as a .350-.365 OBP guy now, but by the 5th or 6th year, I'm not so sure.

     

    He was trending up before the first injury. the going rate is the going rate and there is no doubt that Ellsbury is a huge game changer. Much much more than JBJ or Vic.

    I totally agree, especially if he finds his power groove again. But, the cost on the payroll and the lost comp draft pick weigh heavily on the decision. It's not Jacoby vs SV & JBJ; it is Jacoby vs SV, JBJ, whoever we sign instead of Jacoby (1-3 players) plus the draft pick.

     

     

    He turns 30 in sept, so if he were to be offered a 5yr deal he would turn 35 at the end of that season. But in FA, most teams really pay for the first 3-4 years of a deal and hope to get good production the last year.

     

    Yes, they do, but then they regret it the final 2-3 years, don't they? (Some all 5 years)

     

    Id go as high as 17M/5yrs depending on what the final numbers are because I believe he will be a 300 hitter for the majority of that deal. I also believe he will steal a ton of bases and get on base a lot. I still think he can have between 10-15HR too. Only 85M, so maybe he will get more. If he can, all the power to him. At least you make a very respectable offer.

    I am one to believe that a half season should not effect his offer to much, unless he goes extreme one way or another. But, some GM might think otherwise.

    I do not think $85M/5 will land him, but it may be close. BJ Upton got $75M/5. He has been more healthy, but that's about it.

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question


    Ells is a proven commodity that we know can play in Boston....and he a very good defender, but as Leadoff guy is career OBP of .350 is pretty low and 2011 aside he has nevr hit 10 HR in a season and has 1 this year.....I would love to see the Sox resign him and you can alwasy count on the craziness of GM's, but if he doesnt start hitting for some power the rest of the year, I find it hard to see him worth more than 15MM per....the only CF making more than that is KEMP at 20MM and Granderson is at 15MM......I thinkwith Boras he not only want AAV he wants years.....I could see him getting 6 years for 84MM......for 5/75MM....not more than that and if I would do that if I was the Sox.....if Bradley is the real deal, we will have aplace for him to Play.....Victorino though signed for 2 more years is injury prone....Nava could be moved to 1st or could DH...remembering Papi may be donme after next year....it shouldnt be a we need a spot for Bradley discussion......we could use them both. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I guessed between 16-18Mil per for 5-6 years. I think before the 2011 outlier of a season for Ells he proved he could be a 300 hitter with a 360+ OBP .

    I don't think if you take away 2011, he "proved he could be a .360+ OBP" guy.

    2008: .336

    2009: .355

    2010: .241 (Injury)

    2012: .313 (Injury, but still 303 PAs)

    His 11: 1 SB/CS ratio is also way off his career charts. Not usre that is sustainable.

    I do think Jacoby rates as a .350-.365 OBP guy now, but by the 5th or 6th year, I'm not so sure.

     

    He was trending up before the first injury. the going rate is the going rate and there is no doubt that Ellsbury is a huge game changer. Much much more than JBJ or Vic.

    I totally agree, especially if he finds his power groove again. But, the cost on the payroll and the lost comp draft pick weigh heavily on the decision. It's not Jacoby vs SV & JBJ; it is Jacoby vs SV, JBJ, whoever we sign instead of Jacoby (1-3 players) plus the draft pick.

     

     

    He turns 30 in sept, so if he were to be offered a 5yr deal he would turn 35 at the end of that season. But in FA, most teams really pay for the first 3-4 years of a deal and hope to get good production the last year.

     

    Yes, they do, but then they regret it the final 2-3 years, don't they? (Some all 5 years)

     

    Id go as high as 17M/5yrs depending on what the final numbers are because I believe he will be a 300 hitter for the majority of that deal. I also believe he will steal a ton of bases and get on base a lot. I still think he can have between 10-15HR too. Only 85M, so maybe he will get more. If he can, all the power to him. At least you make a very respectable offer.

    I am one to believe that a half season should not effect his offer to much, unless he goes extreme one way or another. But, some GM might think otherwise.

    I do not think $85M/5 will land him, but it may be close. BJ Upton got $75M/5. He has been more healthy, but that's about it.

    Sox4ever




     I dont think that will handcuff this team financially, But as we both agree, Its probably still not enough $$ and/or years to keep him here. One things for sure...It wont be easy replacing that kind of production.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    ...but Henry can surely spring for whatever it takes to keep a proven player around.

    He hasn't proven he's worth more than $75M/5.

    Sox4ever


    BJ Upton got 75 million from the Braves for 5 years and I'd rather have Ellsbury than Upton. His stats 2 years ago were off the charts and MVP caliber---32 hrs, over 100rbis and batted around .320. That doesn't even include his proven speed on the basepaths and in the outfield. The guy is a terrific player and he gets panned on this site routinely. I just don't get it. I think that he has proven that when healthy he is one of the best in baseball.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    We can debate what a player's market value is until the proverbial cows come home. It means nothing. The market value is what a team is willing to pay. There is quite a range from the small market, penny- pinching , money ball wannabe teams to the " money is no object " teams. How much a player like Ellsbury is offered is anybody's guess. The Sox cannot afford to get into a bidding contest. 

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     

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