Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question
posted at 7/3/2013 12:38 PM EDT
I guessed between 16-18Mil per for 5-6 years. I think before the 2011 outlier of a season for Ells he proved he could be a 300 hitter with a 360+ OBP .
I don't think if you take away 2011, he "proved he could be a .360+ OBP" guy.
2010: .241 (Injury)
2012: .313 (Injury, but still 303 PAs)
His 11: 1 SB/CS ratio is also way off his career charts. Not usre that is sustainable.
I do think Jacoby rates as a .350-.365 OBP guy now, but by the 5th or 6th year, I'm not so sure.
He was trending up before the first injury. the going rate is the going rate and there is no doubt that Ellsbury is a huge game changer. Much much more than JBJ or Vic.
I totally agree, especially if he finds his power groove again. But, the cost on the payroll and the lost comp draft pick weigh heavily on the decision. It's not Jacoby vs SV & JBJ; it is Jacoby vs SV, JBJ, whoever we sign instead of Jacoby (1-3 players) plus the draft pick.
He turns 30 in sept, so if he were to be offered a 5yr deal he would turn 35 at the end of that season. But in FA, most teams really pay for the first 3-4 years of a deal and hope to get good production the last year.
Yes, they do, but then they regret it the final 2-3 years, don't they? (Some all 5 years)
Id go as high as 17M/5yrs depending on what the final numbers are because I believe he will be a 300 hitter for the majority of that deal. I also believe he will steal a ton of bases and get on base a lot. I still think he can have between 10-15HR too. Only 85M, so maybe he will get more. If he can, all the power to him. At least you make a very respectable offer.
I am one to believe that a half season should not effect his offer to much, unless he goes extreme one way or another. But, some GM might think otherwise.
I do not think $85M/5 will land him, but it may be close. BJ Upton got $75M/5. He has been more healthy, but that's about it.