Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I guessed between 16-18Mil per for 5-6 years. I think before the 2011 outlier of a season for Ells he proved he could be a 300 hitter with a 360+ OBP .

    I don't think if you take away 2011, he "proved he could be a .360+ OBP" guy.

    2008: .336

    2009: .355

    2010: .241 (Injury)

    2012: .313 (Injury, but still 303 PAs)

    His 11: 1 SB/CS ratio is also way off his career charts. Not usre that is sustainable.

    I do think Jacoby rates as a .350-.365 OBP guy now, but by the 5th or 6th year, I'm not so sure.

     

    He was trending up before the first injury. the going rate is the going rate and there is no doubt that Ellsbury is a huge game changer. Much much more than JBJ or Vic.

    I totally agree, especially if he finds his power groove again. But, the cost on the payroll and the lost comp draft pick weigh heavily on the decision. It's not Jacoby vs SV & JBJ; it is Jacoby vs SV, JBJ, whoever we sign instead of Jacoby (1-3 players) plus the draft pick.

     

     

    He turns 30 in sept, so if he were to be offered a 5yr deal he would turn 35 at the end of that season. But in FA, most teams really pay for the first 3-4 years of a deal and hope to get good production the last year.

     

    Yes, they do, but then they regret it the final 2-3 years, don't they? (Some all 5 years)

     

    Id go as high as 17M/5yrs depending on what the final numbers are because I believe he will be a 300 hitter for the majority of that deal. I also believe he will steal a ton of bases and get on base a lot. I still think he can have between 10-15HR too. Only 85M, so maybe he will get more. If he can, all the power to him. At least you make a very respectable offer.

    I am one to believe that a half season should not effect his offer to much, unless he goes extreme one way or another. But, some GM might think otherwise.

    I do not think $85M/5 will land him, but it may be close. BJ Upton got $75M/5. He has been more healthy, but that's about it.

    Sox4ever

     




     I dont think that will handcuff this team financially, But as we both agree, Its probably still not enough $$ and/or years to keep him here. One things for sure...It wont be easy replacing that kind of production.

     



    I'm sure Boras will do his best to control the situation but Jacoby has the final word if he really wants it.  Jacoby may bend a little to stay in Boston, or may not.  The positive side is the fact GM's around the league should be much more reluctant to dish out anywhere near 18mil to Ells considering past injuries and seeing such little return in recent years from some of the biggest names in the game. 

    Boras is also getting old with GM's!

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    I am one to believe that a half season should not effect his offer to much, unless he goes extreme one way or another. But, some GM might think otherwise.

    I do not think $85M/5 will land him, but it may be close. BJ Upton got $75M/5. He has been more healthy, but that's about it.

    Sox4ever

     




     I dont think that will handcuff this team financially, But as we both agree, Its probably still not enough $$ and/or years to keep him here. One things for sure...It wont be easy replacing that kind of production.

    Let's say we outbid everyone and get Jacoby for $85M/5. That may not "handcuff" us, but it does take a big chunk out of our spending budget for the next 5 years.

    I know losing Jacoby will be hard to replace, but to me, we have bigger beeds to address, and a boatload of OF prospects all coming of age at about the same time.

    I think Ben will choose what area(s) we will go with the kids next year, and what area(s) he will adress through free agency, trade, or re-signing. Big winter issues to address and in house options:

    (Not ranked in order of importance)

    1) Starting Pitching (It's laways been pitching)

    In House: Buch, Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, Lester (assuming they take the $13M option), and Aceves, Webster, DLR or some other rising prospect in the wings.

    Out of House: Let Lester walk ($0.25M buyout) and trade for or sign a solid FA starter.  C Carpenter, Garza, Kuroda, Shields*, Vogelsong*, C Lewis, Burnett, Floyd, Lincecum, Maholm, Vargas, Nolasco, W Rodriguez, E Santana, Wang, Zito, Hughes, Hudson, Colon, Marcum, Halladay*, Haren, Arroyo, Bedard, Capuano*, B Chen, J de la Rosa, Feldman, J Francis, Harang*, J Hammel, R Harden, R Hernandez, Lannan, Lilly or J Sanchez

    2) Relief Pitching (Hanrahan is a FA):

    In House: Bailey(?), Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Morales, DLR, Wilson, Bard, Beato, de la Torre, or another prospect.

    Out of house: trade Bailey or Aceves and try to get a solid closer. Many FAs to choose from

     

    3) Catcher (Salty is a FA)

    In House: Resign Salty and/or Ross, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Butler, and down the road, Swihart & Denny.

    Out of house: McCann, J Molina, Ruiz, Snyder, Soto, or Torreabla

    4) 1B (Napoli is a FA):

    In House:  Resign Naps and/or Carp/Nava (Papi) or Middlebrooks, Snyder and down the road, Alncantara and T Shaw

    Out of House: Morneau, K Morales, Morse, Reynolds, Berkman*, Lind*, Hafner, Loney, Konerko, C Pena, Kotchman, Overbay, or Youkilis.

    5) 3B (Drew is a FA, so Iggy will move to SS):

    In House: Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Snyder, and down the road, Cecchini

    Out of House: Reynolds, Young, Youkilis,  or A Chavez

    6) OF (Ellsbury is a FA)

    In House: (Victorino to CF) or Bradley in CF, Nava or Brentz in RF, Carp and Gomes in LF, plus several other prospects moving up the ranks.

    Out of House: Choo, Granderson, Pence, Beltran, C Hart, Kearns, Kubel*, McLouth, Morse, N Cruz, D Murphy,or DeJesus

     

    As you can see, there are 6 major areas we need to address or choose to handle from within house. Some of these may be costly, so if we spend big on Ellsbury, it may seriously effect decisions made at the other 5 areas of concern.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    BJ Upton got 75 million from the Braves for 5 years and I'd rather have Ellsbury than Upton. His stats 2 years ago were off the charts and MVP caliber---32 hrs, over 100rbis and batted around .320. That doesn't even include his proven speed on the basepaths and in the outfield. The guy is a terrific player and he gets panned on this site routinely. I just don't get it. I think that he has proven that when healthy he is one of the best in baseball.

    I'd rather have Ellsbury than BJ as well, but just because the Braves overpayed for BJ, does not mean I want to spend that much or more for Jacoby.

    I'm not defending BJ, but he has been more healthy than Ellsbury. He has had 23+ Hrs 3 times: jacoby 10+ once. While BJ's OBP was .336 when the Braves signed him (14 less than Jacoby) , his SLG % was .422 (15 less than Jacoby).  He also has 40+ SBs 3 times and 30+ 5 times. He has a better arm than Jacoby.

    There's no way I'd take BJ Upton over Ellsbury, especially after seeing his start with the Braves, but if we pay Jacoby $85M/5 or more, it will severely limit what we can do at 1B, 3B, C, SP, RP and extending current keepers.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to lasitter's comment:

     

    It still comes down to this: Which year worth of Ells are you buying?

    If the past is any guide, as soon as he gets a fat, long term deal he could revert to being brittle.

    This is his walk year guys. The only thing surprising here is how long it took for him to start generating some big money numbers.

    Base stealers get better as they get older. Bradley cant steal at all. He'll never get better.




     

    None he was great throughout his Minor Leagues, and Major Leagues career. Check his stats. Saw him play, along with JBJ in the Minors, I'll take Ellsbury, any day of the week.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    Base stealers get better as they get older. Bradley cant steal at all. He'll never get better.

    Some top modern day base stealers:

    #1) Rickey Henderson led the league in SBs 7 straight times from age 21 to 27, then 2 more times at ages 29 and 30 (9 of 10 years up to jacoby's age of 29), but then led the league just 3 times from age 30- 44. He had 70+ SBs 7 times at age 30 and lower, and never once afterwards.

    #2) Lou Brock was best from ages 27-35 and had his best season at age 35 (118 SBs but 33 CS)

    #4) Tim Raines led the league at ages 21 to 24, then never again. 70+ SBs for 6 straight years (1981 to 1986 at age 26) then never again. He had 50 at age 27, then just once again in his last 12 seasons.

    #6) Vince Coleman led the league in his first 6 years, then never again. He had 77 at age 28, then dropped off sharply:  37, 24, 38, 50, 42, 26...

    #11) Joe Morgan was best from ages 25 to 33 with his best years at ages 29-32.

    #12) Willie Wilson stole 83 at age 23 and 79 at age 24...nver over 60 again, but did have 59 at ages 27 and 31. Never over 35 after age 31.

    #15) Kenny Lofton led the league at ages 25 to 29, then never again. Had 66. 70, 60, 54, and 75, then at age 29 dropped to 27, 54, 25, 30, 16, 29, 22...

    #18)Juan Pierre was pretty consistent from ages 23 to 32, but did average more from ages 23 to 29 than afterwards. (45+ SBs in 7 straight to age 29, then just once afterwards from 30-35.

    Michael Bourn  had 61, 52 and 61 at ages 26-28 (led league in all 3), then dropped to 42 at age 29 last year.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    Part of what you pay to fill Ells slot is about opportunity cost.

    For some combination of Ells / Bailey / Lester, we would have no trouble carrying Cliff Lee's salary.

    Assuming with Moon's analysis that we could find a way to fill CF/1B, THAT could be a game changer.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    If there were ever a team and a time to re-sign a guy like Ells it's the Sox and now.  Without reposting Moon's excellent assessment of what we have vs. what we need, I can see a scenario like this:

    C - I've always been high on Vasquez and I still am.  Salty is hitting the ball a ton and is doing a better job of throwing out runners.  Sign Salty and start the '14 season with Salty and Lava as catchers with Vasquez in Pawtucket.  When (not "If" because I don't think it's an "If") Vasquez is ready trade Salty or Lava for whatever we need at the moment and bring Vasqez up.  We could end up with a catching staff for relatively cheap money.

    IF - I've been a proponent all along of a starting IF of Bogarts, Iggy, Pedey and Middy.  Only Pedey makes big money and he's shown every indication of being willing to take a hometown discount.  Three of those guys are working for cheap money.  That leaves money available.

    OF - JBJ at a corner (RF?) works, again, cheap.  Sign (or re-sign) a power hitting LF. 

    Those moves give our offense good speed and power at all corners except RF.  Not at all a bad situation. 

    Pitching is where the money gets spent and the trades are made.  Our minor league system is holding up just fine.  It seems like just yesterday that we gave up Kelly, Rizzo, etc and now our farm system is flourishing again.  We've got the chips to make trades for pitching and the money to pay for the players.

    Maybe I'm overestimating the value of a pitching coach... but I don't think so.  IMO unless you have a phenom like Pedro or a "Horse" like Schilling, a good pitching coach can make or break a staff.  When I look at what our SP looks like right now as compared to what it could look like I'm VERY pleased with what Nives has done.  EVERY PITCHER (except possibly Lester) is pitching better than expected this year and someone has to take the credit for it. 

    Where I'm going with this ^^ is that our scouting staff appears to be good at spotting raw talent and our coaching staff is good at developing it.  I see this team as needing only one "stud pitcher" and the rest will develop from within.  That keeps the costs down.  

    RP - Long relievers aren't terribly expensive.  They're a crap shoot, but they're not terribly expensive.  It's just that some work out and some don't and the long relief staff is always a work in progress.

    Closers, good ones, can be pricey, because they're hard to find.

    This leaves us with cheap money at 1/2 the catching position, 3 IF positions and 1 OF position. If we're going to overpay (and I plan on another post regarding "overpayment") for someone, now is the time to overpay for Ells.  We just CANNOT lose sight of the fact that the Sox are NOT a small market team and in MLB it takes money to make money. 

    And what's this red herring about his being 35 in the last year of his contract?  He's 34 for all but the last month. Since I'm not expecting a miracle downward transformation on his 35th birthday I wouldn't let the fact that he turns 35 in Sept. deter me from signing him. 

    This is a great time to be a Red Sox fan.  The FO has done an outstanding job of drafting and developing players and we have an owner who is willing to spend money.  How could life be any better?  :-) 

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    We're concerned about "overpaying", but in reality overpaying is a function of the market.  As salaries go up what looks like an overpayment this year becomes a bargain next year.

    Overpayment is all about money paid vs. performance given vs. the amount of money a player brings in.  This brings up a bunch of questions that none of us have the answer to, but we need to remember that baseball IS a business. 

    Is it overpaying if we pay Ells $100M if we win a WS that we wouldn't otherwise have won?

    How much additional money does a team make by winning a WS when taking into account season ticket sales, licensing rights, etc.?

    How much money is it worth to have a winning team, in terms of ticket sales, tv rights, etc?

    I can remember when Catfish Hunter signed a contract for $3.5M(!!) and everyone, myself included, was screaming, "OVERPAY!"  .... and look where we are now.  You and I can't determine what constitutes overpayment, but I'd bet that there are people in the FO who can, and do.  

    It sure would be interesting to know how much money the Red Sox organization actually makes.  We've seen massive improvements made to the park over the past few years and that money has come from somewhere.  Now that they're done with the structural improvements, is it realistic to think that some of that money can now be put into player's salaries if necessary?

    I dunno.  I'm not privy to the books, but it sure would be intersting to find out!

     

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to S5's comment:

    Is it overpaying if we pay Ells $100M if we win a WS that we wouldn't otherwise have won?


    The $64,000 is WHETHER you could have won it otherwise.

    It's also about the opportunity cost of signing Ells -- what the money could have got you otherwise.

    What's the WAR / your favorite sabre metric / for that position if you subtract Ells and repopulate that position with our other guys?

    Move over Victorino, and between Carp, Gomes, Nava, JBJ, Brentz, De La Cruz, trades, Rule 5, etc., and how may games does not having Ells cost you?

    By comparison, how many extra wins does having Cliff Lee get you?

    Other teams could unload their farm system, but how many other teams can handle a complete salary dump that Lee represents?

    Is getting a complete salary dump AND lots of top prospects really realistic for the Phils?

    I wouldn't be interested if that's what it took.

    I hope we all know that a healthy Ells is not something you can guarantee, and that he's very unlikely to sign any contract that ties full payment to PAs or games paid.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    Jacoby is the man. Nuff said. pay him his money and call it a day.

    his HR numbers aren't what they were in 2011 but that's not a big deal to me.. in my eyes jacobys awesomeness has always came from his leadoff abilities (getting OB and stealing bases) as well as hus suberb defense (he is in line to win another GG). whats better? a double or a walk/single and a steal? keep in mind that the production from the double begins and ends with the hit itself. In the other scenario you've got all types of extra variables that work in your favor.. The pitcher is looking over his shoulder because the runner is in his head he is more apt to make a mistake. He throws more FBs to the batter which is always good when you have guys like pedroia, Papi and Napoli hitting behind him who all munch on fastballs. AND it creates opportunities for errors which adds extra bases. if you add his steals into his "total bases" for SLG% calculations it increases by ~100 points. from .403 to .501

    so in summation. Big numbah two is a god damned outlaw who has proven to handle the pressure, is the best leadoff guy in BB, the best CF'er in BB, the best basestealer in BB. BJ Upton is none of those things and got 15/5. Jacoby is laughing at anything less than that including that disrespectful offer you proposed to him Moon. SMH.....

    MASTER OF PUPPETS I'M PULLING YOUR STRINGS!!
    TWISTING YOUR MIND AND SMASHING YOUR DREAMS!!
    BLINDED BY ME YOU CAN'T SEE A THING!!
    JUST CALL MY NAME 'CUZ I'LL HEAR YOU SCREAM!!
    MASTER!! MASTER!!

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to S5's comment:

    If there were ever a team and a time to re-sign a guy like Ells it's the Sox and now.  Without reposting Moon's excellent assessment of what we have vs. what we need, I can see a scenario like this:

    C - I've always been high on Vasquez and I still am.  Salty is hitting the ball a ton and is doing a better job of throwing out runners.  Sign Salty and start the '14 season with Salty and Lava as catchers with Vasquez in Pawtucket.  When (not "If" because I don't think it's an "If") Vasquez is ready trade Salty or Lava for whatever we need at the moment and bring Vasqez up.  We could end up with a catching staff for relatively cheap money.

    IF - I've been a proponent all along of a starting IF of Bogarts, Iggy, Pedey and Middy.  Only Pedey makes big money and he's shown every indication of being willing to take a hometown discount.  Three of those guys are working for cheap money.  That leaves money available.

    OF - JBJ at a corner (RF?) works, again, cheap.  Sign (or re-sign) a power hitting LF. 

    Those moves give our offense good speed and power at all corners except RF.  Not at all a bad situation. 

    Pitching is where the money gets spent and the trades are made.  Our minor league system is holding up just fine.  It seems like just yesterday that we gave up Kelly, Rizzo, etc and now our farm system is flourishing again.  We've got the chips to make trades for pitching and the money to pay for the players.

    Maybe I'm overestimating the value of a pitching coach... but I don't think so.  IMO unless you have a phenom like Pedro or a "Horse" like Schilling, a good pitching coach can make or break a staff.  When I look at what our SP looks like right now as compared to what it could look like I'm VERY pleased with what Nives has done.  EVERY PITCHER (except possibly Lester) is pitching better than expected this year and someone has to take the credit for it. 

    Where I'm going with this ^^ is that our scouting staff appears to be good at spotting raw talent and our coaching staff is good at developing it.  I see this team as needing only one "stud pitcher" and the rest will develop from within.  That keeps the costs down.  

    RP - Long relievers aren't terribly expensive.  They're a crap shoot, but they're not terribly expensive.  It's just that some work out and some don't and the long relief staff is always a work in progress.

    Closers, good ones, can be pricey, because they're hard to find.

    This leaves us with cheap money at 1/2 the catching position, 3 IF positions and 1 OF position. If we're going to overpay (and I plan on another post regarding "overpayment") for someone, now is the time to overpay for Ells.  We just CANNOT lose sight of the fact that the Sox are NOT a small market team and in MLB it takes money to make money. 

    And what's this red herring about his being 35 in the last year of his contract?  He's 34 for all but the last month. Since I'm not expecting a miracle downward transformation on his 35th birthday I wouldn't let the fact that he turns 35 in Sept. deter me from signing him. 

    This is a great time to be a Red Sox fan.  The FO has done an outstanding job of drafting and developing players and we have an owner who is willing to spend money.  How could life be any better?  :-) 

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.



    I'm not concerned about overpaying a top FA. It's just that I do not think Ellsbury is that one.

    Yes, he will be only 34 for most of his 5th year under contract, but that is still on the down slope for about 2 of the 5 years.

    Salty will not be cheap. We have several last arb year contracts due. I'm not sure we can count on Middlebrooks, but with Carp and nava able to play 1st, I'm pretty confident that Bogaerts and Middlebrooks can fight it out at 3B and one will produce for us. That is a "cheap costing IF". 

    I doubt we spend big on a LF'er, since Gomes, Carp and Nava can handle that position well enough. However, we do need a big RH'd bat, and OF or 3B/1B are the likely landing spots.

    I'm still for trying to get a top of rotation SP, but realize the cost is always very steep. We will probably pin our hopes on Webster, DLR, Ranaudo...

    If Lester leaves, we will need to do something. If he stays and continues to struggle, we will need to do something.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    A not-so-quick look at 2014...

    Here's how next year's budget looks (using average contract yearly salary):

    2014

    $16.5M Lackey (then club option at min. wage*)

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (then $13M for 2015 and then FA)

    $13M Ortiz (then FA)

    *$13M Club Option on Lester (with $.25M buyout

    $7.5M Buchholz (through 2015 with club options for $13M '16 & $13.5M '17 w .5M buyout)

    $6.75M Pedroia (signed through 2014 with 2015 club option @ $11M w $.5M buyout)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $3.1M Breslow (then FA)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub Total: ~$81.5M without Lester (9 players)and $93M with Lester (10 players).

    Arbitrations:

    Uehara (3 of 3) made $4.25M in 2013 > $6M

    Bailey (3 of 3) made $4.1M > $5.5M

    Aceves (3 of 3) made 2.65M > $3M

    Bard (2 of 3) made $1.86M > 1M (or DFA'd)

    Iglesias (IFA signing) made $2M > $3M (?)

    Morales (3 of 3) made $1.49M > $2M

    Miller (3 of 3) made 1.48M > $2M

    Tazawa (1 of 3) made $815K > $1.25M

    Carp (1 of 3) made $508K > $1.25M

    Sub Total Arb estimate: $25M (9 players)

    Doubront (pre- arb, then 3 arbs) made $518K

    Nava (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Mortensen (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Kalish (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $498K

    Middlebrooks (pre-arb) made $498K

    Pre-arbs that make $490K this year: Bradley, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Wilson, and Wright.

    Sub Total Pre-Arb estimate: $8M (16 players)

    TOTAL : ~ $127M (35 players with Lester) / 115M (34 players with no Lester)

    That's a total of 31-35 players depending on Lester and Bard, but a few other players might be dealt or cut (Butler, Hassan, Wright)

    5-10 players (Rule 5 pending) that might be added to 40 man roster this winter or lost: add about $3-4M to the total.

    40 man roster total: ~$130M with Lester/ $119M without Lester

    The following players will be eligible for the 2013 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2013:

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair, Xander BogaertsBryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Mario Martinez, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Rafael Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Brandon Snyder, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Stefan Welch, Shannon Wilkerson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer

     

    So, basically our luxury tax budget will be between $119 and $130M depending on Lester, plus the player pension ($11.1M?) and the Dodger payment of $3.9M for 2014 (then one more for 2015). 

    The final number will be about:

     

    $134M without Lester

     

    $145M with Lester

     

     

     (not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)

    Let's say we keep Lester, that leaves us with about $44M tso spend on FAs or re-signings. If we spend $18M on Ellsbury, that leaves $26M to fill these slots:

    1B (Napoli) could use Carp/Nava/Papi/Middlebrooks

    3B (Iggy to SS) could use Bogaerts/Middlebrooks/Snyder

    C  (Salty) could use Ross/Lava/Vazquez

    SP (no FA loss) could use Webster, DLR, Ranaudo...

    RP (Hanrahan) Could hope for a Bailey revival, or hope that Wilson, de la Torre, or Bard steps up.

    All of the above in house options look promising, but to hope all positions work out with the kids is stretching it. With $26M/yr to spend, Ben can choose the one or two slots he is most worried about and sign some bridge players or one big named guy.

    My guess is, Ben signs a bridge 1B/3B guy, Salty, and a pen arm. He'll leave enough money to make a deadline move if we end up with a weak spot.

    Sox4ever

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I am one to believe that a half season should not effect his offer to much, unless he goes extreme one way or another. But, some GM might think otherwise.

    I do not think $85M/5 will land him, but it may be close. BJ Upton got $75M/5. He has been more healthy, but that's about it.

    Sox4ever

     




     I dont think that will handcuff this team financially, But as we both agree, Its probably still not enough $$ and/or years to keep him here. One things for sure...It wont be easy replacing that kind of production.

    Let's say we outbid everyone and get Jacoby for $85M/5. That may not "handcuff" us, but it does take a big chunk out of our spending budget for the next 5 years.

    I know losing Jacoby will be hard to replace, but to me, we have bigger beeds to address, and a boatload of OF prospects all coming of age at about the same time.

    I think Ben will choose what area(s) we will go with the kids next year, and what area(s) he will adress through free agency, trade, or re-signing. Big winter issues to address and in house options:

    (Not ranked in order of importance)

    1) Starting Pitching (It's laways been pitching)

    In House: Buch, Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, Lester (assuming they take the $13M option), and Aceves, Webster, DLR or some other rising prospect in the wings.

    Out of House: Let Lester walk ($0.25M buyout) and trade for or sign a solid FA starter.  C Carpenter, Garza, Kuroda, Shields*, Vogelsong*, C Lewis, Burnett, Floyd, Lincecum, Maholm, Vargas, Nolasco, W Rodriguez, E Santana, Wang, Zito, Hughes, Hudson, Colon, Marcum, Halladay*, Haren, Arroyo, Bedard, Capuano*, B Chen, J de la Rosa, Feldman, J Francis, Harang*, J Hammel, R Harden, R Hernandez, Lannan, Lilly or J Sanchez

    2) Relief Pitching (Hanrahan is a FA):

    In House: Bailey(?), Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Morales, DLR, Wilson, Bard, Beato, de la Torre, or another prospect.

    Out of house: trade Bailey or Aceves and try to get a solid closer. Many FAs to choose from

     

    3) Catcher (Salty is a FA)

    In House: Resign Salty and/or Ross, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Butler, and down the road, Swihart & Denny.

    Out of house: McCann, J Molina, Ruiz, Snyder, Soto, or Torreabla

    4) 1B (Napoli is a FA):

    In House:  Resign Naps and/or Carp/Nava (Papi) or Middlebrooks, Snyder and down the road, Alncantara and T Shaw

    Out of House: Morneau, K Morales, Morse, Reynolds, Berkman*, Lind*, Hafner, Loney, Konerko, C Pena, Kotchman, Overbay, or Youkilis.

    5) 3B (Drew is a FA, so Iggy will move to SS):

    In House: Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Snyder, and down the road, Cecchini

    Out of House: Reynolds, Young, Youkilis,  or A Chavez

    6) OF (Ellsbury is a FA)

    In House: (Victorino to CF) or Bradley in CF, Nava or Brentz in RF, Carp and Gomes in LF, plus several other prospects moving up the ranks.

    Out of House: Choo, Granderson, Pence, Beltran, C Hart, Kearns, Kubel*, McLouth, Morse, N Cruz, D Murphy,or DeJesus

     

    As you can see, there are 6 major areas we need to address or choose to handle from within house. Some of these may be costly, so if we spend big on Ellsbury, it may seriously effect decisions made at the other 5 areas of concern.

     

    Sox4ever

    Of course if we sign Ells it will effect certain things. I see a couple more placeholders if anything next year. maybe one or 2 bigger deals.
    We have 189M to go to in 2014. We have about 100M committed right now including ins. and LAD $$.
    Starters- I would be willing to bet the Sox resign Lester. Especially at 13M. Thats a no brainer. My guess Is that Lackey would be the one to get moved with his minimum wage year and pitching like he is. The Rotation isnt really an issue IMO. There are names like Garza, Lincecum, Santana and other middle of the rotation type guys who arent in their mid 30's. We already have 2 of those. We have a bunch of kids almost ready and Im willing to be that a couple work out by 2015. Add Lesters option and were at 113M with the rotation set with no other major rotation additions for 2014.

    Bullpen arms - Loads of internal options in AAA. Breslow is the only guarantee contract at 3.8M. My guess is that they could move Bailey(arb 3) this winter. Koji will be 39 and will be in his final arb year as well. Both will make north of 5M if retained. Aceves (arb3)3+M trade? Morales and Miller (arb 3) will probably make about 2M each. Taz (arb1) 1M? Now, what to do with Bard? Pay him 2+M or open up a roster spot? Everyone else is at 500K. I think a couple of these names wont be here next year, a couple kids will get a spot and as usual, they will bring in a few names and see who sticks. 15-17M total cost. just say were at 130M

    1b- Internally we have Carp (arb1) and Nava (prearb) at a combined 1.5M. They could switch either Middy or Bogey over there at league minimum. Maybe even give Lav a 1b mit. All are possible an next to nothing. We could look on the FA market for a short term option because I believe we have a future 1b in out system. There are a couple names that might take a 2yr or less deal that I would consider. Cory Hart, Justin Morneau, Mark Reynolds, Mike Morse. Lets say they spend 10M

    2b- Pedey

    3b-SS Will probably be in house at minimum. 2M w/BU

    OF- Should be in house. If they dont resign Ells, we have Vic, JBJ, Nava, Gomes, Brentz, Carp, Hassan. 3M

    Catcher- We have Ross if he doesnt decide to retire. Lavarnway is an option. I think Vasquez should still be another year or 2 away. I would offer Salty a 4yr deal about 7M per. Depending on what McCann costs too, hes the only other name I like. So lets say 10-12M for catching. 157-160M total.

    Add in another 6M or so in minimum deals and they still have enough to sign another body.I see catcher, possibly OF, and maybe 1b being the bigger possible needs as it stands right now. I went on the high side for a couple positions to be safe.

    If they decided to go inhouse at a few positions, or make a trade or 2, they could easily sign Ells. Im not saying either way if they should sign Ells or not, but at 5/85, they could certainly make it work. They would be tight for one year, then we are only obligated (as of right now) for 30M. 40M incl. ins and LAD $$ come 2015 with a few more kids that should be ready for the show.

    I doubt he signs for that though, and that would be my max offer to him.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    Moon: If the Sox picked up Lee's entire remaining salary for the year at the deadline, how far over luxury tax limit would the team go for this year?

    We may be on track to pay Naps $13m this year, but if you subtract 9m for Ells and 13m from Naps for next year, that's $22m available to carry $25m for Lee. This doesn't seem like a big stretch for me.

    Looking only at those teams that could provide a complete salary dump for the Phils, how many additional prospects would be required to make it work? Maybe you solve your Rule 5 problems by giving a larger number of lesser prospects ...

    I know we'd be paying 40 percent of the overage on the cap / tax, but if the overage is small, so is the tax.

    What are the other downsides to exceeding the cap for one year on a player that would be a game changer?

    Thanks again for the math.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    I like our long term outlook, but I seriously doubt Ben goes with all of these kids at all of these slots. He will pick and choose which ones he has the most/least faith in and either sign a FA or a bridge player at the ones he worries most about.

    C- Lava/Vazquez playing 80-110 games

    1B- Middlebrooks if Carp/Nava are used elswhere or flame out.

    SS- Iggy (Bogaerts)

    3B- Bogaerts (Middlebrooks)/Snyder

    CF- Bradley (or move Shane here and have Nava/Brentz in RF)

    RP/SP- Wilson/Webster/DLR/Ranaudo

    Of these 6 or 7 slots, I think ben will choose 3-4 to let the kids fight it out over. The other 3-4 will be filled by big FAs or bridge players (FA or via trade).

     

    I still think Ben may pursue a quality SP this deadline or winter, with the idea that he may trade one of ours once everything shakes out next year.

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    The Rotation isnt really an issue IMO. - Southpaw777

    Perhaps, one of the most dangerous sentiments to hold no matter how good your rotation looks at any given time.

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    The Rotation isnt really an issue IMO. - Southpaw777

    Perhaps, one of the most dangerous sentiments to hold no matter how good your rotation looks at any given time.

    Sox4ever




    It isnt an issue right now. Thats not dangerous. Its a fact. Everyone is pitching good..besides Buch, whos not pitching. Why get a guy like, say garza, who will have to be put in the rotation? theres no need for him right now. our 4-5 are doing a great job. Lester is turning things around, Lackey is great, and Buch will be returning soon. Our depth has been great too.

    When we have a need for a starter, then we should go get one. We dont have a need right now.

     
  18. This post has been removed.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    With the starters coming up through the minors and who we have on hand now SP's seem to be our strongest point.

    What concerns me more is CF and 3rd base.

    Vic is questionable to play a full season without injuries and Bradley may very well need another year in AAA he hit only .256 in June at Paw.

    Bogarts Middy and Snyder are all suspect  now and very well may be next year.




    I see Catcher, OF and 1b/3b as needs going into 2014.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    It isnt an issue right now. Thats not dangerous. Its a fact. Everyone is pitching good..besides Buch, whos not pitching. Why get a guy like, say garza, who will have to be put in the rotation? theres no need for him right now. our 4-5 are doing a great job. Lester is turning things around, Lackey is great, and Buch will be returning soon. Our depth has been great too.

     

    When we have a need for a starter, then we should go get one. We dont have a need right now.

     

    I get your point, but as of right now, Lester is still a queation mark. Buchholz should return soon, but at what level, and can he stay healthy? Webster started today and did well. Aceves has looked good too.

    I'm not for making any moves right now, unless there is a deal we can't pass up.

    The problem with saying our rotation looks good, is that it can change in a second, and if we wait until after the deadline to do anything, it's probably too late.

    I do not see us trading for a SP at the deadline as of now, unless something goes wrong by then, but I do think this winter we should look to add to our rotation. It's been my philosophy to always seek to improve your rotation and not from the 4 or 5 slot. If a team ever ends up with an extra SP, they will be worth more their weight in gold on the trade market during next season.

    I think this deadline, we will look to upgrade our pen and maybe get a good RH'd hitter that plays 3B. This winter, depending on Ellsbury, Salty, Napoli re-signing or not, I see our off season needs as such:

    1) 1-2 slot SP

    2) Catcher

    3) 3B/1B

    4) CF/RF

    5) RP

    (1B?/ Utility IF'er?)

    Sox4ever

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    Not sure the Sox can afford Ellsbury anymore after that Ruthian blast to right added 3mil per year to his offer sheets. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    If Jacoby ends up at .300/.370/.430/.800 with 60 SB in 66 tries, but with only 5 Hrs, he'll still get an offer of $85M/5 from some GM out there (minimum).

    If he finds his power stroke, who knows what offer some nutty GM will give him.

    Sox4ever

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    It isnt an issue right now. Thats not dangerous. Its a fact. Everyone is pitching good..besides Buch, whos not pitching. Why get a guy like, say garza, who will have to be put in the rotation? theres no need for him right now. our 4-5 are doing a great job. Lester is turning things around, Lackey is great, and Buch will be returning soon. Our depth has been great too.

     

    When we have a need for a starter, then we should go get one. We dont have a need right now.

     

    I get your point, but as of right now, Lester is still a queation mark. Buchholz should return soon, but at what level, and can he stay healthy? Webster started today and did well. Aceves has looked good too.

    I'm not for making any moves right now, unless there is a deal we can't pass up.

    The problem with saying our rotation looks good, is that it can change in a second, and if we wait until after the deadline to do anything, it's probably too late.

    I do not see us trading for a SP at the deadline as of now, unless something goes wrong by then, but I do think this winter we should look to add to our rotation. It's been my philosophy to always seek to improve your rotation and not from the 4 or 5 slot. If a team ever ends up with an extra SP, they will be worth more their weight in gold on the trade market during next season.

    I think this deadline, we will look to upgrade our pen and maybe get a good RH'd hitter that plays 3B. This winter, depending on Ellsbury, Salty, Napoli re-signing or not, I see our off season needs as such:

    1) 1-2 slot SP

    2) Catcher

    3) 3B/1B

    4) CF/RF

    5) RP

    (1B?/ Utility IF'er?)

    Sox4ever




    Then we pretty much agree about the pitching. Just stated differently is all.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    I'd like to get a SP at the deadline, but they are way to pricey when teams are in panic mode.

    Better to get a SP this winter.

    We should concentrate on getting pen help and a 3Bman who hits LHPs very well, and hopefully righties pretty well also. (I don't think Michael Young helps much at all. We gain on offense vs LHPs, but lose on defense.)

    Sox4ever

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Jacoby/Bradley/Nava question

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    If Jacoby ends up at .300/.370/.430/.800 with 60 SB in 66 tries, but with only 5 Hrs, he'll still get an offer of $85M/5 from some GM out there (minimum).

    If he finds his power stroke, who knows what offer some nutty GM will give him.

    Sox4ever



    You could be right moon but I don't think Jacoby would hit many HR's in certain parks being a pull hitter.  His future success may be the Jacoby we see this season if he stays healthy.  Considering how many of the Boras signings have been huge failures you would tend to think most teams would be reluctant to play his games anymore, including Boston.  Past injuries, loss of power if it remains and Boras may come back to haunt Ells. 

    Other factors are what guys like Juston Upton are getting who a lot of people wanted over Ells at the start of the year and other CF's on the market after this season like Granderson, Crisp and Davis.

     

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