A not-so-quick look at 2014...
Here's how next year's budget looks (using average contract yearly salary):
$16.5M Lackey (then club option at min. wage*)
$13.25M Dempster (then FA)
$13M Victorino (then $13M for 2015 and then FA)
$13M Ortiz (then FA)
*$13M Club Option on Lester (with $.25M buyout
$7.5M Buchholz (through 2015 with club options for $13M '16 & $13.5M '17 w .5M buyout)
$6.75M Pedroia (signed through 2014 with 2015 club option @ $11M w $.5M buyout)
$5M Gomes (then FA)
$3.1M Breslow (then FA)
$3.1M Ross (then FA)
Sub Total: ~$81.5M without Lester (9 players)and $93M with Lester (10 players).
Uehara (3 of 3) made $4.25M in 2013 > $6M
Bailey (3 of 3) made $4.1M > $5.5M
Aceves (3 of 3) made 2.65M > $3M
Bard (2 of 3) made $1.86M > 1M (or DFA'd)
Iglesias (IFA signing) made $2M > $3M (?)
Morales (3 of 3) made $1.49M > $2M
Miller (3 of 3) made 1.48M > $2M
Tazawa (1 of 3) made $815K > $1.25M
Carp (1 of 3) made $508K > $1.25M
Sub Total Arb estimate: $25M (9 players)
Doubront (pre- arb, then 3 arbs) made $518K
Nava (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K
Mortensen (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K
Kalish (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $498K
Middlebrooks (pre-arb) made $498K
Pre-arbs that make $490K this year: Bradley, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Wilson, and Wright.
Sub Total Pre-Arb estimate: $8M (16 players)
TOTAL : ~ $127M (35 players with Lester) / 115M (34 players with no Lester)
That's a total of 31-35 players depending on Lester and Bard, but a few other players might be dealt or cut (Butler, Hassan, Wright)
5-10 players (Rule 5 pending) that might be added to 40 man roster this winter or lost: add about $3-4M to the total.
40 man roster total: ~$130M with Lester/ $119M without Lester
The following players will be eligible for the 2013 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2013:
Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair, Xander Bogaerts, Bryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Mario Martinez, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Rafael Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Brandon Snyder, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Stefan Welch, Shannon Wilkerson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer
So, basically our luxury tax budget will be between $119 and $130M depending on Lester, plus the player pension ($11.1M?) and the Dodger payment of $3.9M for 2014 (then one more for 2015).
The final number will be about:
$134M without Lester
$145M with Lester
(not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)
Let's say we keep Lester, that leaves us with about $44M tso spend on FAs or re-signings. If we spend $18M on Ellsbury, that leaves $26M to fill these slots:
1B (Napoli) could use Carp/Nava/Papi/Middlebrooks
3B (Iggy to SS) could use Bogaerts/Middlebrooks/Snyder
C (Salty) could use Ross/Lava/Vazquez
SP (no FA loss) could use Webster, DLR, Ranaudo...
RP (Hanrahan) Could hope for a Bailey revival, or hope that Wilson, de la Torre, or Bard steps up.
All of the above in house options look promising, but to hope all positions work out with the kids is stretching it. With $26M/yr to spend, Ben can choose the one or two slots he is most worried about and sign some bridge players or one big named guy.
My guess is, Ben signs a bridge 1B/3B guy, Salty, and a pen arm. He'll leave enough money to make a deadline move if we end up with a weak spot.