Re: Jacoby Ellsbury is the best CF in the AL and may be the best in the game today.
posted at 7/11/2011 8:31 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Jacoby Ellsbury is the best CF in the AL and may be the best in the game today.
[QUOTE]Right, slomag, the Sox cannot afford Kemp and probably don't need him. Wrong, slomag. The Sox can afford Kemp, who would cost 3.4M for the remainder of this year. Drew and Cameron's 21M comes off the books next year, at which time Kemp's extension would take affect. Kemp would likely agree to any extension with a base in the range of 18 to 21M. Ellsbury would be replaced by Reddick/Kalish at virtual zero cost, and Ellsbury's 2012 cost would be about 4 to 6M of wasting expenditure that should go to a profile like Kemp. The net 2012 base cost of Kemp, in relation to current budget, would be ie 2012 Budget 20M - 5M for Ellsbury = 15M budget for Kemp 2011 OF Budget 21.5M for Drew & Cameron + 2.4M Ellsbury = 23.9M budget The OF budget for 2012 would go down, not up, with Kemp. It would be wrong to just try and keep it down another 12 to 15M when the team needs a long term young RH OF star slugger. It's needed long term, and, regardless if this team has enough to win it this year, would make this year's team better and more likely to win it all this year. That means at the very least Papi and Papelbon are gone next year, and we're still bumping right up against the luxury tax, with raises due for Buchholz, Pedroia and Lester, and a decision looming on Youkilis Wrong. The 2012 OF budget would go down, with Kemp, in relation to the 2011 OF budget. Ortiz's age means he won't receive a pay increase because of the market, and might get a front loaded two year deal with a fairly significant base decrease. Buchholz's, Pedroia and Lester's deals are already in place and are averages for the CBT calulation. You are not familiar with how the CBT is calculated. It's not based upon what is paid per year, it's base on an average computation over the life of the contract. Youk is under control through 2013, with the team option buyout cost at only 1M. That's not an issue at all. Papelbon is already making 12M. Rivera is making 15M a year. The decision on Papelbon will not be a CBT issue, it will be a value decision. Bard and Jenks are already locked in for beyond this year, so it's not like the world ends if they don't want to pay Papelbon another 3M for next year. I think they should offer Papelbon 2 years at 15M, with a player opt out of year 2 so Papelbon has a chance to cash in and hit the market and get another market 2 year deal. Like it or not, having Bard and Papelbon is much better than Bard and ?. Papelbon has proven he can handle the Boston closer role, and I don't think age 31 and 32 means he'll be washed up before the 2nd year ends. It works for both sides because Papelbon controls his own destiny if he has a year that warrants another 2 year deal, but the Red Sox are only on the hook for 2 years and Bard to capture savings and Jenks is off the books for Papelbon's 2nd year. To find a reliable closer or closer/setup guy of the quality of Bard and Papelbon, Jenks aint it and if it's on the market it's likely to cost about as much as Papelbon, anyway. Theo should have learned his lesson that skimping on the pen is a huge mistake. Papelbon isn't likely to ever be the 2007 version, but that doesn't mean to dumpster dive and weaken the pen top by subtracting Papelbon for Bard and Jenks, etc. Papelbon has proven he can be, worst case, one of the leagues upper tier closers, for going on 5 years. The good part of pen arms is that the loss is limited to a year or so if the player's career tanks in midstream. Unlike Lackey's foolish contract, it's a risk cost that practically has to be taken. The Red Sox will probably accept Scutaro's player's option at 3M instead of paying 1.5M buyout. Good veteran UIF player in that they are already on the hook for another 1.5 to let him go. Why do that when it costs just 1.5M more to retain him for one more year. Bottom line: Scutaro is a net change of minus 3.25M I don't think Ellsbury v. LHP is hard to top, in 2011.
Posted by billbyboy[/QUOTE]
What about Gonzalez's extension? That's going to add almost $16M to the CBT value next year.