Re: jacoby ellsbury rumor
posted at 10/27/2012 1:46 AM EDT
In response to redsoxpride34's comment:
not a fan of trading ellsbury for holland. why? because hold is just another average pitcher, this team doesnt need another doubront or buchholz, this team needs an ace. This team needs a grienke or josh johnson or felix hernandez. Somone to lead the staff. Someone that the team could count on to win a big game, be it regular season or playoffs. We had pedro, we had schilling, becket at times was dominant, but was so inconsisant it was hard to call him an ace. Pitching wins championships, just look at the san fran giants, cain, bumgarner, vogelsong, and linecum until this year is the foundation of that team. there offense is pretty average but yet they are in the world series. The tigers have verland, sherzer, fister, sanchez. The sox need an ace. end of story
I disagree with this post on a lot of levels.
Whether or not the Sox need an ace should not preclude making other deals. So because Holland is not as good as say, Verlander, Cain or David Price, the Sox should avoid any attempts to upgrade other pitching? I for one will take many more pitchers like Buchholz, by the way. Especially ones without back problems.
If the thought is "don'tt trade Ellsbury for a mere upgrade, deal him for an ace instead," guess what? NOT going to happen. Any team dealing for Ellsbury knows they have him for one year only, and therefore will only deal for him if he is the missing piece. Teams in that position are NOT going to unload their best pitcher. There is no team in all of baseball that needs a CF more than their best SP in order to win in all.
Holland is not an elite pitcher, but he certainly is a good pitcher. He gets hammered in Arlington (5.34ERA), which could presumably lead to his availability. Getting him will not solve all the Sox pitching issues, but it most definitely does help. For example, this deal would free the team up to deal Felix Doubront to upgrade elsewhere. Unlike Ellsbury, and even Holland, Doubront has nearly 5 years of control left starting out at the league minimum, and his appeal is not limited to any set of teams. What team is going to say "A 25yo left-handed starting pitcher who makes the league minimum? We do not need and cannot afford such frivoloties!" While I would never say Doubront would be traded straight up for an ace, I will say he is far, far more likely to get one than Ellsbury, because he has many more years of control and can be a plus for a rebuilding team going forward.
Really, the only TOR starting pitcher I could see Ellsbury being dealt for is Cliff Lee. Lee has a contract that pays him at least $87.5mill over the next 3 years. Philadelphia has way too much money committed to Lee, Halladay, Hamels, Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Papelbon to simply try to rebuild. As of today, their starting outfield would be made of 3 from the crowd of Nate Schierholtz, Domonic Brown, John Mayberry, or Darin Ruf. And they are going to try and contend with Atlanta and Washington with that on their plate? Unloading Lee for an actual player would be a good step, and the lack of commitment going forward only helps the Phillies.
Atlanta is another potential destination for Ellsbury, given their surplus of SP and the way their last 2 seasons ended abruptly. However, Jacoby will very likely not get Beachy, Medlen or Minor as a return, not with one year left and Scott Boras advising him. The overhyped Tommy Hanson and/or the overpaid Jair Jurrjens are possibilities. However, there are certainly no guarantees those two are even upgrades. Heck, Jurrjens is 99% likely to be non-tendered. Anyone up for dealing Ellsbury for 37yo Tim Hudson?
The Nationals would certainly be interested in Ellsbury, but they are not going to send back Strasburg or Zimmermann. Ross Detwiler? Maybe. More likely, they offer Mike Morse, who could probably be had for bullpen arms, since the Nationals will need help there, do not need Morse, and know he also has only one year left on his deal. Also, the glut of available CF on the free agent market does limit the Sox options. The Nationals could sign Bourn instead, or, if money is an issue, sign Pagan or Melky Cabrera for a lot less money and keep their pitchers.
Holland is probably the upper limit of Ellburys trade appeal. And really no one has ever even confirmed the two teams have talked about it...