Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to slasher9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    JE's entire game is predicated on speed.  he wreaks havoc on the basepaths and causes high stress on pitchers.  his speed also makes up for bad reads on defense.

    at what age does the speed fall off?  he is about to turn 30. 

    personally i wouldnt offer him more than 4 years.

    without his speed he will be a below average fielder and since he has minimal power, speed is his deadliest offensive weapon.  he will lose a step every year past 30.....

     




    Heres how I look at the injuries with Ells in regards to a contract offer. He will be 30 in another 2 weeks. The injuries he suffered were not a nagging hammy, heel, knee, back or anything like that. It was Broken ribs where you have to lay down and rest for them to heal, and a shoulder sublexion which is the same thing. Hes basically go 2 years of rest on those legs. 2 less years of wear and tear. No?

     

    I already believed he could go at a good rate to his 35th BDay. Hes in phenomenal shape and condition. Ells is a good candidate to play into his mid 30's while still producing at a high level. That would be a 5yr deal where he turns 35 in the last month of the least year of his deal. Id give him a 6th year if it gets the deal done. 16M/6yrs with a 4M signing bonus to make it a 100M deal.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Glad you said it because I was thinking the exact same thing--he is a young almost 30 because of those injuries and his own conditioning.  In addition, his WAR right now is in the top 20 and that is not based only on speed.  He does have skills. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    He is in very good shape, and the good base stealers get better as they get older. They learn how to steal, and dont rely on speed so much. His speed will last another 4-5 years easily.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    JE's entire game is predicated on speed.  he wreaks havoc on the basepaths and causes high stress on pitchers.  his speed also makes up for bad reads on defense.

    at what age does the speed fall off?  he is about to turn 30. 

    personally i wouldnt offer him more than 4 years.

    without his speed he will be a below average fielder and since he has minimal power, speed is his deadliest offensive weapon.  he will lose a step every year past 30.....



    I agree: four years at $14M/yr. Sorry. He is a part time player and now is when that comes to roost.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    I would say Ells will wind up with $142 M--the same as CC contract from the Sox. If the Yankees lose Cano to the Dodgers the Yankees will feel the need to get Ells and keep him from the Mets.

    The Yankees will have Tex back, Nunez at 2 B, Jeter SS, Youk 3 B, Soriano lf, Ells CF and Gardiner RF. Perhaps Granderson will be let go to allow Ells to be signed.

    The team may look even more differnt next April.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    I would say Ells will wind up with $142 M--the same as CC contract from the Sox. If the Yankees lose Cano to the Dodgers the Yankees will feel the need to get Ells and keep him from the Mets.

    The Yankees will have Tex back, Nunez at 2 B, Jeter SS, Youk 3 B, Soriano lf, Ells CF and Gardiner RF. Perhaps Granderson will be let go to allow Ells to be signed.

    The team may look even more differnt next April.



    I wonder if the Yankees will be willing to pay Ellsbury what he is going to demand if they want to retain Cano, keep paying Slappy, and get to the luxury tax threshold. They also need some SP I think, and Jeter is falling apart. They have lots of missing parts.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    This topic has already been discussed over and over again, ad infinitum.  I think it is presumptuous for us to give a dollar figure . That is entirely up to John Henry. He has the money. He will decide how much he wants to spend. I will just say this; Ellsbury is an important part of the  team, both offense and defense. It will not be easy to replace his production. One final thought. Scott Boras is the premier agent in the business. Hate him and make fun of his name if you want. He still has to be dealt with. There is no way around that.

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    I would say Ells will wind up with $142 M--the same as CC contract from the Sox. If the Yankees lose Cano to the Dodgers the Yankees will feel the need to get Ells and keep him from the Mets.

    The Yankees will have Tex back, Nunez at 2 B, Jeter SS, Youk 3 B, Soriano lf, Ells CF and Gardiner RF. Perhaps Granderson will be let go to allow Ells to be signed.

    The team may look even more differnt next April.



    If the Yankees have that lineup next year, Ellsbury can't possible fix it.  Jeter and Youk are both too old and also, especially Youk, injury prone.  Nunez is a big step down in offense, dingers, rbi's, etc.  Soriano remains to be seen despite his great start on his second tour with the Yankees.  Plus Cash and the Steinbrenners have indicated that don't want to pay the luxury task. 

    I think a big contract like that--$142M-- will only go to a player with a lifetime OPS of around .900 or so.  The CC contract is exhibit A on the fallibility of the Sox FO and a cautionary tale, not a precedent. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    JE's entire game is predicated on speed.  he wreaks havoc on the basepaths and causes high stress on pitchers.  his speed also makes up for bad reads on defense.

    at what age does the speed fall off?  he is about to turn 30. 

    personally i wouldnt offer him more than 4 years.

    without his speed he will be a below average fielder and since he has minimal power, speed is his deadliest offensive weapon.  he will lose a step every year past 30.....

     



    I agree: four years at $14M/yr. Sorry. He is a part time player and now is when that comes to roost.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    He is a part time player that is too funny.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    JE's entire game is predicated on speed.  he wreaks havoc on the basepaths and causes high stress on pitchers.  his speed also makes up for bad reads on defense.

    at what age does the speed fall off?  he is about to turn 30. 

    personally i wouldnt offer him more than 4 years.

    without his speed he will be a below average fielder and since he has minimal power, speed is his deadliest offensive weapon.  he will lose a step every year past 30.....

     

     



    I agree: four years at $14M/yr. Sorry. He is a part time player and now is when that comes to roost.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    He is a part time player that is too funny.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Keep in mind that some people post very literally.  If a player misses one game he's then a "part time player" because he's not a "full time player". 

    Also keep in mind that I didn't say that this makes sense!  Cool

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

    [QUOTE]In response to greenwellforpresident's comment:

     

    I think the sox would do that without a doubt.  I wonder where the end point will be.

    Much higher. Fangraphs has Ellsbury as the number 4 centerfielder in baseball since 2008, even with his injury time. They value those years at $97.9mil.

    Upton is the 12th best, valued at $76.5.

    -Daf.


    Over the same period, FanGraphsvalues 32-year-old Shane Victorino at $108.4 million:

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2013&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

    How does Victorino's three-year, $39 million contract impact the starting point for Jacoby Ellsbury's contract?

    [/QUOTE]


    Fair point, I noticed that as well. And one could turn it around and say the Sox stole Shane. The only caveat being he is 32 not 29 and probably beginning his decline. But yeah, for now, I gotta like the Shane deal. 

    -Daf.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    JE's entire game is predicated on speed.  he wreaks havoc on the basepaths and causes high stress on pitchers.  his speed also makes up for bad reads on defense.

    at what age does the speed fall off?  he is about to turn 30. 

    personally i wouldnt offer him more than 4 years.

    without his speed he will be a below average fielder and since he has minimal power, speed is his deadliest offensive weapon.  he will lose a step every year past 30.....

     

     

     



    I agree: four years at $14M/yr. Sorry. He is a part time player and now is when that comes to roost.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    He is a part time player that is too funny.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Keep in mind that some people post very literally.  If a player misses one game he's then a "part time player" because he's not a "full time player". 

     

    Also keep in mind that I didn't say that this makes sense!  Cool

    [/QUOTE]


    Or if a building lands on him, twice. Or if he gets struck by lightning, Twice!  Or bit by a shark, TWICE!!!

    -Daf.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to southpaw777's comment:


    Heres how I look at the injuries with Ells in regards to a contract offer. He will be 30 in another 2 weeks. The injuries he suffered were not a nagging hammy, heel, knee, back or anything like that. It was Broken ribs where you have to lay down and rest for them to heal, and a shoulder sublexion which is the same thing. Hes basically go 2 years of rest on those legs. 2 less years of wear and tear. No?

     



    good point on the 2 year "rest".  maybe makes that 5th year valid. 

    Boras gonna be salivating getting NY and Boston into one of those good ol' bidding wars.......

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Archer1. Show Archer1's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    Starting point is more like 5/95 in my opinion...

    I'd like to see him back, but I don't expect it.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     


    Heres how I look at the injuries with Ells in regards to a contract offer. He will be 30 in another 2 weeks. The injuries he suffered were not a nagging hammy, heel, knee, back or anything like that. It was Broken ribs where you have to lay down and rest for them to heal, and a shoulder sublexion which is the same thing. Hes basically go 2 years of rest on those legs. 2 less years of wear and tear. No?

     

     

     



    good point on the 2 year "rest".  maybe makes that 5th year valid. 

     

     

    Boras gonna be salivating getting NY and Boston into one of those good ol' bidding wars.......

     




    I don't see the Yankees getting into a bidding war for Ellsbury.

     

    They need to sign Cano and some pitching.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from bostonfan191646. Show bostonfan191646's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    the more i think about it the more i would absolutely be okay with 5/85 for ells. an outfield of Victorino/Nava- Ells - JBJ would be fun to think about. 

     
  16. This post has been removed.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

     

     

    JE's entire game is predicated on speed.  he wreaks havoc on the basepaths and causes high stress on pitchers.  his speed also makes up for bad reads on defense.

    at what age does the speed fall off?  he is about to turn 30. 

    personally i wouldnt offer him more than 4 years.

    without his speed he will be a below average fielder and since he has minimal power, speed is his deadliest offensive weapon.  he will lose a step every year past 30.....

     

     

     



    I agree: four years at $14M/yr. Sorry. He is a part time player and now is when that comes to roost.

     

     

     

     



    He is a part time player that is too funny.

     

     



    Keep in mind that some people post very literally.  If a player misses one game he's then a "part time player" because he's not a "full time player". 

     

    Also keep in mind that I didn't say that this makes sense!  Cool



    Do you remember the article that said that earlier this year Ellsbury had missed 44% of the games he could have played? Thats part time in my book. Now is when that comes home to roost. It must be taken into account with any contract offer.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from bostonfan191646. Show bostonfan191646's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    ugh. i just have this nasty image in my head of some team shelling out 5-6 years, 17 per, just one or two million more than the sox would be willing to offer, and then going back to the 30 homer 100 RBI ellsbury. Oh well, let some other team gamble on that happening. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to S5's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

     

     

    JE's entire game is predicated on speed.  he wreaks havoc on the basepaths and causes high stress on pitchers.  his speed also makes up for bad reads on defense.

    at what age does the speed fall off?  he is about to turn 30. 

    personally i wouldnt offer him more than 4 years.

    without his speed he will be a below average fielder and since he has minimal power, speed is his deadliest offensive weapon.  he will lose a step every year past 30.....

     

     

     



    I agree: four years at $14M/yr. Sorry. He is a part time player and now is when that comes to roost.

     

     

     

     



    He is a part time player that is too funny.

     

     



    Keep in mind that some people post very literally.  If a player misses one game he's then a "part time player" because he's not a "full time player". 

     

    Also keep in mind that I didn't say that this makes sense!  Cool

     

     



    Do you remember the article that said that earlier this year Ellsbury had missed 44% of the games he could have played? Thats part time in my book. Now is when that comes home to roost. It must be taken into account with any contract offer.

     

     

     

     

    There is no way that Ellsbury's time missed should be considered in his contract any more than any other MLBer who runs the risk of having Adrian Beltre run them over, or Reid Brignac land on him.


    I dare you to let Adrian Beltre run you over and see how many days of work you miss. This idea that he has been especially fragile and "part time" because of it is ludicrous. He hasn't been. He has been hurt badly in a way he is not likely to again. That is what's important.

    -Daf.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

     

     

    JE's entire game is predicated on speed.  he wreaks havoc on the basepaths and causes high stress on pitchers.  his speed also makes up for bad reads on defense.

    at what age does the speed fall off?  he is about to turn 30. 

    personally i wouldnt offer him more than 4 years.

    without his speed he will be a below average fielder and since he has minimal power, speed is his deadliest offensive weapon.  he will lose a step every year past 30.....

     

     

     



    I agree: four years at $14M/yr. Sorry. He is a part time player and now is when that comes to roost.

     

     

     

     



    He is a part time player that is too funny.

     

     



    Keep in mind that some people post very literally.  If a player misses one game he's then a "part time player" because he's not a "full time player". 

     

    Also keep in mind that I didn't say that this makes sense!  Cool

     



    Do you remember the article that said that earlier this year Ellsbury had missed 44% of the games he could have played? Thats part time in my book. Now is when that comes home to roost. It must be taken into account with any contract offer.

    [/QUOTE]
    In the years 2011, 2012 and 2013 he has been eligible to play in 459 games to date and has played in 357 of them.  That's about 78% and includes one of his injury years.  (158-74-125 thus far)

    I'd like for you to talk to the other GM's and make this point to them. If you can pull this wool over their eyes we may be able to sign Ells a lot cheaper for the future.   

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    First, let me say that I really would love to have Ellsbury leading off for the next 3-5 years or more. Probably boom is the only poster on this site that has spent more time and posts defending Jacoby against the likes of softy. He brings a lot to the table. His fielding instincts have improved. His running into outs has declined sharply. His arm is weak, but that is not as important as many make it out to be.

    Secondly, trying to pinpoint his value is hard to do on many levels. His ulimate monetary value will be determined by the most generous or desperate GM. From the Sox perspective, and the understanding that our budget is not unlimited, I think we should think long and hard about the most we should offer and how the offer will effect our future payroll budget. If the number is close to $17-20M a year times 4-7 years, like I think it will be, then we will have to make sacrifices at other positions of need to do so. That does not mean it will not be worth it, but his re-signing will have a big impact on future moves, extensions, and trades.

    Finally, I have to look at it this way: the Sox seem to have taken a step back and re-evaluated their choices on longterm deals. The Pedey extension shows they are willing to go large & long combined for the right guy, but as much as Ellsbury brings to the table, I have to think choosing a player like Ellsbury to make the big plunge, perhaps the only "big plunge" we will make in years may have one serious flaw: Ellsbury is not one of the elite hitters in MLB. Yes, the other skills offsets that fact to a large extent, but to me, a $20M a year longterm deal has to go to a stud hitter or pitcher. The fielding and baserunning are certainly valuable, but I just can't see forking over that much money to a player with such little power and an OBP below .380.

    I know many here do not trust WAR and metrics of any sort, but looking at just the batting portion of WAR on the fangraph's value page for all MLB players with 300 or more PAs this year (all 231 or them), Ellsbury rates number 79. That places him near the top of the middle third hitters in MLB. That's hardly a guy I'd choose to make take the big plunge on.

    Yes, it will hurt to lose him. No, we do not have a leadoff hitter close to his skillset. But, with close to $20M to spend, assuming the money for Ellsbury will be spent elsewhere, I think we can upgrade at enough positions to offset the loss.

    He has the 44th best OBP in MLB (out of 231 players with 300+ PAs this year).

    That's not even top 3 on the Sox.

    He's 97th in SLG%. That's closer to average than top 60.

    That's 7th on the Sox.

    He's 78th in OPS. again, middle thrid in the league.

    7th on the Sox.

     

    I value SBs. My favorite childhood all time baseball player was Tommy Harper. I love great fielding, and Ellsbury is very very good at a key position. I'm not saying hitting is everything, but these numbers just don't look like $20M a year to me. Not even $18M a year.

    Go back to include 2011. Out of 280 MLb players with 750+ PAs, Ellsbury places 44th in OPS. (52nd in OBP & 47th in OBP) His OBP is the most important as our leadoff hitter, and this is where he places on the Sox in OBP since 2011:

    1) .400 Papi  

    2) .371 Pedey

    3) .370 Nava

    4) .357 Ellsbury

    .357 is nice, but for a leadoff hitter with questionable power, I'm thinking that's not $18M territory. Yes, if you count the singles and SBs as dbls, his SLG% goes up, and the minimal CS'ings would minimally reduce the numbers if added, but I just can't see $18M x 5 or 6 years. I'll hate to see him go, but with that kind of money and a comp draft pick, I think we'll do fine for many years to come.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    First, let me say that I really would love to have Ellsbury leading off for the next 3-5 years or more. Probably boom is the only poster on this site that has spent more time and posts defending Jacoby against the likes of softy. He brings a lot to the table. His fielding instincts have improved. His running into outs has declined sharply. His arm is weak, but that is not as important as many make it out to be.

    Secondly, trying to pinpoint his value is hard to do on many levels. His ulimate monetary value will be determined by the most generous or desperate GM. From the Sox perspective, and the understanding that our budget is not unlimited, I think we should think long and hard about the most we should offer and how the offer will effect our future payroll budget. If the number is close to $17-20M a year times 4-7 years, like I think it will be, then we will have to make sacrifices at other positions of need to do so. That does not mean it will not be worth it, but his re-signing will have a big impact on future moves, extensions, and trades.

    Finally, I have to look at it this way: the Sox seem to have taken a step back and re-evaluated their choices on longterm deals. The Pedey extension shows they are willing to go large & long combined for the right guy, but as much as Ellsbury brings to the table, I have to think choosing a player like Ellsbury to make the big plunge, perhaps the only "big plunge" we will make in years may have one serious flaw: Ellsbury is not one of the elite hitters in MLB. Yes, the other skills offsets that fact to a large extent, but to me, a $20M a year longterm deal has to go to a stud hitter or pitcher. The fielding and baserunning are certainly valuable, but I just can't see forking over that much money to a player with such little power and an OBP below .380.

    I know many here do not trust WAR and metrics of any sort, but looking at just the batting portion of WAR on the fangraph's value page for all MLB players with 300 or more PAs this year (all 231 or them), Ellsbury rates number 79. That places him near the top of the middle third hitters in MLB. That's hardly a guy I'd choose to make take the big plunge on.

    Yes, it will hurt to lose him. No, we do not have a leadoff hitter close to his skillset. But, with close to $20M to spend, assuming the money for Ellsbury will be spent elsewhere, I think we can upgrade at enough positions to offset the loss.

    He has the 44th best OBP in MLB (out of 231 players with 300+ PAs this year).

    That's not even top 3 on the Sox.

    He's 97th in SLG%. That's closer to average than top 60.

    That's 7th on the Sox.

    He's 78th in OPS. again, middle thrid in the league.

    7th on the Sox.

     

    I value SBs. My favorite childhood all time baseball player was Tommy Harper. I love great fielding, and Ellsbury is very very good at a key position. I'm not saying hitting is everything, but these numbers just don't look like $20M a year to me. Not even $18M a year.

    Go back to include 2011. Out of 280 MLb players with 750+ PAs, Ellsbury places 44th in OPS. (52nd in OBP & 47th in OBP) His OBP is the most important as our leadoff hitter, and this is where he places on the Sox in OBP since 2011:

    1) .400 Papi  

    2) .371 Pedey

    3) .370 Nava

    4) .357 Ellsbury

    .357 is nice, but for a leadoff hitter with questionable power, I'm thinking that's not $18M territory. Yes, if you count the singles and SBs as dbls, his SLG% goes up, and the minimal CS'ings would minimally reduce the numbers if added, but I just can't see $18M x 5 or 6 years. I'll hate to see him go, but with that kind of money and a comp draft pick, I think we'll do fine for many years to come.

     

    Sox4ever



    I would like him back too, at the right and fair price. I think Borass is going to be surprised at the lack of offers for what he considers fair. I don't think the Yanks are going after him; and the Rangers and Dodgers are already spending heavily. Who else? KC? TB? He might yet end up a RS for a fair price for a part time player.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract


    Moonslav,

    A thoughtful analysis with which I find it hard to disagree, especially the idea that you can't pay big bucks for someone less than an elite hitter.  In 2011 Ellsbury was that elite hitter.  In July of this year he hit 4 dingers and looked as though maybe he could get back to something close to 2011, but now he definitely does not.  He is not the franchise player Boras is peddling him as.  As great as he was in 2011, especially in September, he could not prevent the collapse. 

    Most players will go anywhere for even a little bit more salary.  Some, like Pedroia and Longoria, have decided a huge salary is plenty and a gigantic one unnecessary.  Pedroia, we should note, is the same age as Ellsbury, and he has made it clear all along he likes where he is.  He too was born on the west coast, where he also played college ball at Arizona State, which is almost west coast. 

     

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to S5's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

     

     

    JE's entire game is predicated on speed.  he wreaks havoc on the basepaths and causes high stress on pitchers.  his speed also makes up for bad reads on defense.

    at what age does the speed fall off?  he is about to turn 30. 

    personally i wouldnt offer him more than 4 years.

    without his speed he will be a below average fielder and since he has minimal power, speed is his deadliest offensive weapon.  he will lose a step every year past 30.....

     

     

     



    I agree: four years at $14M/yr. Sorry. He is a part time player and now is when that comes to roost.

     

     

     

     



    He is a part time player that is too funny.

     

     



    Keep in mind that some people post very literally.  If a player misses one game he's then a "part time player" because he's not a "full time player". 

     

    Also keep in mind that I didn't say that this makes sense!  Cool

     

     



    Do you remember the article that said that earlier this year Ellsbury had missed 44% of the games he could have played? Thats part time in my book. Now is when that comes home to roost. It must be taken into account with any contract offer.

     

     

     




    It wont be taken into consideration for a couple reasons. No GM sees him as a PT player. A PT player is Jonny Gomes or Mike Carp. Being hurt doesnt make you a PT player. That, and Ells' injuries werent the nagging hammy, knee, or back type. I'd worry more about someone like Stanton dealing with nagging injuries and being out more than Ellsbury. You have an odd way of viewing things in regards to how most GM's view things.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury - Starting point for next contract

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I think the Sox will offer Jacoby $100M/6, won't budge much from there, and Jacoby will take a higher offer from some desperate GM.


    That's a lot of money to risk on someone that has missed as many games as he has in the past. No telling how many he might have sat out if this wasn't a walk year. I'd rather have the comp pick, even though I'm pretty sure you're right about him declining the six year offer.

     

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