Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block
posted at 11/7/2011 9:59 PM EST
In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block
[QUOTE]Slomag, We disagree about "held his own." You mean "OK"? And that qualifies him to take over in center for the Sox. You just said that Reddick is a AAAA player. Sizemore is a risk. Ellsbury is not. I don't know where you get these numbers and state with such certainty that somehow the three named will produce 80% of Ellsbury's output. Ellsbury does not have to repeat exactly his 2011 numbers in order to have a very good year. You said that Ellsbury heals 20% slower than -- well, who? A normal body? You have no way of knowing the extent of Ellsbury's injuries or what it took to repair them and get him ready to play baseball the way he did last season. That was the proof of the pudding. Real numbers, in real time, in real ML games.
Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]
You're all over the board here.
1) Kalish was "OK" at age 22, which could mean very good at age 24. I give him a 35% chance of reaching an OPS of .780 in 500 PAs.
2) I never said Reddick is a AAAA player. I think he can be a bit better than Trot Nixon. I don't think he's a superstar, but I give him a 60% chance of besting .780 OPS in 500 PAs.
3) Sizemore is an injury risk, but Ellsbury has lost about 25% of his career to injuries so far. He's not exactly an iron man. Sizemore isn't a fluke - if he's healthy, he's terrific, and since doctors give his surgery an 80% chance of full recovery, I give him a 70% chance of a .780 OPS.
4) I don't know any of this for certain, but you don't know what to expect from Ellsbury, either. Nate McLouth once led the league in doubles, and now Atlanta can't give him away. You don't have a higher ground on certainty.
5) I don't think there is any bone in any human body that takes six months to heal, but you're right, I don't know all of the details.
6) Ellsbury had an incredible 2011, but he was well above his averages in every category. It's not impossible that he will continue to improve, but at age 28, a regression is much more likely.