Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    Prado gives us another Aviles granted prado is little better but im not interested in giving anything up for him. But id be willing to give up something for Jurrjens. Maybe give them Iglesias in return for Jurrjens. On the other hand with the Phillies serious about Cuddyer i think trading with the Phils for Mayberry may be a good idea. Hes a young right handed outfielder and the phillies will not have a place for him if they sign cuddyer. The only problem is that i dont know what the Phillies need...
     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    Slomag offers Sizemore, Kalish, or Reddick to replace Ellsbury in CF. That man is desperate to get rid of Ellsbury. 
    Posted by expitch


    All things being equal, I think it would be less of an offensive drop-off than the posters suggesting replacing Scutaro with Iglesias, trading Youk and signing Aramis Ramirez, or letting Papi walk to make the DH position more 'flexible'.  At least trading Ellsbury could actually return something of value.

    If you were expecting me to take the Carlos Beltran bait, remember he missed almost as many games from 2009-2010 as Sizemore did 2010-2011.  I think he and Beltran have about equal chances of having a healthy year in 2012, and we know a healthy Sizemore is at least as good as a healthy Ellsbury.


     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : All things being equal, I think it would be less of an offensive drop-off than the posters suggesting replacing Scutaro with Iglesias, trading Youk and signing Aramis Ramirez, or letting Papi walk to make the DH position more 'flexible'.  At least trading Ellsbury could actually return something of value. If you were expecting me to take the Carlos Beltran bait, remember he missed almost as many games from 2009-2010 as Sizemore did 2010-2011.  I think he and Beltran have about equal chances of having a healthy year in 2012, and we know a healthy Sizemore is at least as good as a healthy Ellsbury.
    Posted by slomag

    When Grady hit 33 HRs, he also hit just .268. He never has stolen more than 38 bases. His highest OPS is .907, then .876 and .852.

    • I think Sizemore would be a good gamble, but he's a gamble none-the-less. It's been 3 full years now with nothing higher than .248.
    I don't want Beltran, but the guy does have a 41 HR year and 9 seasons with 20+. He has 8 seasons with 100+ RBIs. 8 seasons with an OPS over .875.



     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : When Grady hit 33 HRs, he also hit just .268. He never has stolen more than 38 bases. His highest OPS is .907, then .876 and .852. I think Sizemore would be a good gamble, but he's a gamble none-the-less. It's been 3 full years now with nothing higher than .248. I don't want Beltran, but the guy does have a 41 HR year and 9 seasons with 20+. He has 8 seasons with 100+ RBIs. 8 seasons with an OPS over .875.
    Posted by moonslav59


    .268 with a .374 OBP.  His career OBP is nearly 100 points better than his BA - that's the most appealing thing about Sizemore - even a mild bounce-back would translate to a ton of runs with this offense around him.  

    Sizemore's injury-plagued years were ages 26 - 28, when he should have been bringing his game to another level.  If there's any chance he can come back fully healthy, his numbers could surpass what he did in the past.  I don't want to take anything away from Ellsbury's terrific year, but I think he will likely look back on it as the best he ever had.  

     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : .268 with a .374 OBP.  His career OBP is nearly 100 points better than his BA - that's the most appealing thing about Sizemore - even a mild bounce-back would translate to a ton of runs with this offense around him.   Sizemore's injury-plagued years were ages 26 - 28, when he should have been bringing his game to another level.  If there's any chance he can come back fully healthy, his numbers could surpass what he did in the past.  I don't want to take anything away from Ellsbury's terrific year, but I think he will likely look back on it as the best he ever had.  
    Posted by slomag


    OK, but if you are going to take away Jacoby's career year, what are Sizemore's career numbers after taking away his big spike year?

    I like Sizemore, but I think comparing Grady to Jacoby at this point in their careers is pushing it. I don't think it is unreasonable to expect this from Jacoby in 2012 & 2013:

    .310/.365/.535/.900

    I don't see grady approaching these numbers even if healthy.




     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : OK, but if you are going to take away Jacoby's career year, what are Sizemore's career numbers after taking away his big spike year? I like Sizemore, but I think comparing Grady to Jacoby at this point in their careers is pushing it. I don't think it is unreasonable to expect this from Jacoby in 2012 & 2013: .310/.365/.535/.900 I don't see grady approaching these numbers even if healthy.
    Posted by moonslav59


    Sizemore's spike year came at age 23 - how many guys have career years at age 23? And it wasn't that much of a spike - he followed his .907 OPS with a .852 and .876.  I think your expectations of Ellsbury are a little bit high, but I'd suggest that we adjust the OPS down about 25 points for Sizemore, (because of his higher walk total as a percentage of his OBP).  If .875 is the target OPS, I think it's very realistic, assuming perfect health.

    But if I'm wrong, or if Sizemore is not healthy, what do you think is the worst-case scenario?  .775 from one of the three?  Would that be acceptable if we were also adding Jurrjjens to the rotation, and Kimbrel or Venters to the pen?  


     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : All things being equal, I think it would be less of an offensive drop-off than the posters suggesting replacing Scutaro with Iglesias, trading Youk and signing Aramis Ramirez, or letting Papi walk to make the DH position more 'flexible'.  At least trading Ellsbury could actually return something of value. If you were expecting me to take the Carlos Beltran bait, remember he missed almost as many games from 2009-2010 as Sizemore did 2010-2011.  I think he and Beltran have about equal chances of having a healthy year in 2012, and we know a healthy Sizemore is at least as good as a healthy Ellsbury.
    Posted by slomag
    You mentioned Reddick and Kalish. One of them came down to earth hard last year, and the other hardly played and was not that impressive when he did play in Boston.  
    At this point in their careers, we definitely do not "know" that a healthy Sizemore is as good as a healthy Ellsbury. 
    I wasn't "expecting" you to take any bait, or to speak about what other posters say. 
    Now is not the time to trade Ellsbury for those Atlanta players, or for anyone, for that matter, less than prime talent.

     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : Sizemore's spike year came at age 23 - how many guys have career years at age 23? And it wasn't that much of a spike - he followed his .907 OPS with a .852 and .876.  I think your expectations of Ellsbury are a little bit high, but I'd suggest that we adjust the OPS down about 25 points for Sizemore, (because of his higher walk total as a percentage of his OBP).  If .875 is the target OPS, I think it's very realistic, assuming perfect health. But if I'm wrong, or if Sizemore is not healthy, what do you think is the worst-case scenario?  .775 from one of the three?  Would that be acceptable if we were also adding Jurrjjens to the rotation, and Kimbrel or Venters to the pen?  
    Posted by slomag


    I would not trade Ellsbury for Jurrjens and Venters. I'd seriously think of doing it for Hanson and O'Flaherty or Venters. I think we'd be better off signing Papi and trading Youk, Lowrie, Reddick and a prospect or two for picthing help.

    I think getting a guy like Cody Ross makes more sense. It's less of a gamble and not too expensive. Play Ross vs all LHPs and some righties, and go with the winner of Kalish and Reddick vs the other righties. Together, I think their OPS could be .810-830 which is a heck of a lot higher than 2011's.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    Sizemore's spike year came at age 23 - how many guys have career years at age 23?

    Comparing him to Jacoby is problematic, since Grady broke inot MLB at age 21. I know he's only 29 and had a very good 4 year stretch from 2005 to 2008 (ages 22-25). I know he can maybe do that again, and the reward to risk (cost) is worth taking a shot, but to plan on him doing it and trading away Ellsbury for an injury prone starter is just not my idea of a sound 2012 plan. Signing Grady as an option for RF makes sense. Trading Ellsbury and Iggy for a guy like Hanson and O'Flaherty could work.

    And it wasn't that much of a spike - he followed his .907 OPS with a .852 and .876.  I think your expectations of Ellsbury are a little bit high, but I'd suggest that we adjust the OPS down about 25 points for Sizemore, (because of his higher walk total as a percentage of his OBP).  If .875 is the target OPS, I think it's very realistic, assuming perfect health.

    Assuming perfect health, I could see Sizemore falling somewhere between a very wide gap...maybe somewhere like .800 and .875, while Jacoby's projection is more secure... maybe .875 to .925.

    But if I'm wrong, or if Sizemore is not healthy, what do you think is the worst-case scenario?  .775 from one of the three?  

    Well, Grady has posted .786, .560, and .706 in limited seasons the last 3 years. Yes, he was hurt, but it may take him a while to find the groove after 3 years, even if he is healthy.

    Would that be acceptable if we were also adding Jurrjjens to the rotation, and Kimbrel or Venters to the pen?  

    Hanson, Kimbrel and Sizemore, yes. Jurrjens, Kimbrel, Sizemore, not quite.
     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : You mentioned Reddick and Kalish. One of them came down to earth hard last year, and the other hardly played and was not that impressive when he did play in Boston.   At this point in their careers, we definitely do not "know" that a healthy Sizemore is as good as a healthy Ellsbury.  I wasn't "expecting" you to take any bait, or to speak about what other posters say.  Now is not the time to trade Ellsbury for those Atlanta players, or for anyone, for that matter, less than prime talent.
    Posted by expitch


    Kalish was injured, and Reddick was above league-average in his first real MLB stint.  Sizemore's recent sub-par seasons are solely related to his injuries.  You can say he may never regain full use of his knees (though the operation has an 80% success rate, even among athletes) or you can say he will be rusty when he returns, but a guy who puts up the numbers he did 4 years in a row is not a fluke.

     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    I would love to see Youk involved in this trade for Jurrjens and Prado. Prado would be very nice to have with the RH bat, plays OF. Not sure this type of trade will happen though. Heck, I would trade Youk straight up for Prado.
    Posted by sindarin-erebor


    This is ridiculous - Youk's OPS in his terrible 2011 season was 57 points higher than Prado's career average.



    A voice of reason?  Good for you, slomag!
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : Kalish was injured, and Reddick was above league-average in his first real MLB stint.  Sizemore's recent sub-par seasons are solely related to his injuries.  You can say he may never regain full use of his knees (though the operation has an 80% success rate, even among athletes) or you can say he will be rusty when he returns, but a guy who puts up the numbers he did 4 years in a row is not a fluke.
    Posted by slomag
    Reddick was hot for a while, then went south in a big way. Kalish is coming off an injury and has yet to prove that he's a ML player. Yet you think that one of them could step into Ellsbury's shoes. Neither has shown that he definitely belongs in Boston's lineup. 
    All I said was we can't know that Sizemore would be at least as good as Ellsbury.

     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : Reddick was hot for a while, then went south in a big way. Kalish is coming off an injury and has yet to prove that he's a ML player. Yet you think that one of them could step into Ellsbury's shoes. Neither has shown that he definitely belongs in Boston's lineup.  All I said was we can't know that Sizemore would be at least as good as Ellsbury.
    Posted by expitch


    I acknowledged there would probably be some offensive drop-off, but that's our strength.  It wasn't our offense that crumbled in September, and Ellsbury is our only realistic chance of getting pitching via trade.  If I'm the Braves or Giants, he's a number one acquisition target - a guy who can score runs for you in a number of different ways.  I think with Kalish, Reddick & Sizemore, there is a good chance for that offensive drop-off to be less than 100 OPS points.  With Sizemore, if both players were healthy, I'd give even money who would have the better season - you never know anything in baseball, but all four of Sizemore's healthy seasons were better than all but one of Ellsbury's.  One season is more likely to be a fluke than four.

     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : I acknowledged there would probably be some offensive drop-off, but that's our strength.  It wasn't our offense that crumbled in September, and Ellsbury is our only realistic chance of getting pitching via trade.  If I'm the Braves or Giants, he's a number one acquisition target - a guy who can score runs for you in a number of different ways.  I think with Kalish, Reddick & Sizemore, there is a good chance for that offensive drop-off to be less than 100 OPS points.  With Sizemore, if both players were healthy, I'd give even money who would have the better season - you never know anything in baseball, but all four of Sizemore's healthy seasons were better than all but one of Ellsbury's.  One season is more likely to be a fluke than four.
    Posted by slomag
    The four seasons were then. The one season is now -- and counting. One player is healthy.
    I have no idea where you get the number "100 OPS points."
    Reddick was hitting his hat size in AAA, with some power, before he was called up. In Boston, he had a hot streak, then went back to hitting his hat size, with no power. Kalish is not a proven ML player. Either way, you'd be replacing an MVP candidate with a question mark.
    If I were Cherington, I'd consider a trade of Ellsbury, but only for top of the line pitching, and only because I doubt that he will remain in Boston.



     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : The four seasons were then. The one season is now -- and counting. One player is healthy. I have no idea where you get the number "100 OPS points." Reddick was hitting his hat size in AAA, with some power, before he was called up. In Boston, he had a hot streak, then went back to hitting his hat size, with no power. Kalish is not a proven ML player. Either way, you'd be replacing an MVP candidate with a question mark. If I were Cherington, I'd consider a trade of Ellsbury, but only for top of the line pitching, and only because I doubt that he will remain in Boston.
    Posted by expitch


    I'd have to agree that if they were to trade Ellsbury, it would have to be for a proven young starter that would be under the teams control through at least 2013 or longer...

    As for Kalish and Reddick...

    Kalish reminds me of Brett Gardner from the Yanks, very athletic type with a good eye at the plate "a grinder"...I could see him as someone that projects to be the centerfielder of the future, but I don't see him being a guy that will ever hit .300 more so a solid 270-350-400-750 9 hole guy, that could steal around 30 bases...

    Reddick is a AAAA guy that in my mind has 4th OFer / lefthanded platoon player written all over him...He does possess some pretty good tools, but still hasn't learned to hit advanced pitching and gives away far too many at bats.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : The four seasons were then. The one season is now -- and counting. One player is healthy. I have no idea where you get the number "100 OPS points." Reddick was hitting his hat size in AAA, with some power, before he was called up. In Boston, he had a hot streak, then went back to hitting his hat size, with no power. Kalish is not a proven ML player. Either way, you'd be replacing an MVP candidate with a question mark. If I were Cherington, I'd consider a trade of Ellsbury, but only for top of the line pitching, and only because I doubt that he will remain in Boston.
    Posted by expitch

    Reddick's OPS at AAA was .841, which was within 100 OPS points of Ellsbury's MLB numbers.  His MLB OPS was .784 - with no improvement from Reddick in 2011, it's optimistic to think that Ellsbury will top .884 OPS.  Kalish in 2010 had a .792 OPS between Portland, Pawtucket & Boston.  If Ellsbury improved after a year lost to injuries, why can't Kalish?

    It sounds like we're not all that far apart - I think my expectations are a little lower for Ellsbury in the coming years, so my trade demands are a little lower.  But if you got your top of the line pitcher, how would you replace Ellsbury in CF?

     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    Oh goodie! Now sloman is comparing Hillbilly Josh's MINOR league numbers to Ellsbury's MAJOR league numbers.
    Lots of credibility there.
    Let's just trade a once in a decade player for anybody, just to give Kalish/Reddick a chance.
    Let's just assume there's no way Ellsbury will re-sign with the Sox, so let's dump him right now.
    Dee tee dee! Dee tee dee!
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : Reddick's OPS at AAA was .841, which was within 100 OPS points of Ellsbury's MLB numbers.  His MLB OPS was .784 - with no improvement from Reddick in 2011, it's optimistic to think that Ellsbury will top .884 OPS.  Kalish in 2010 had a .792 OPS between Portland, Pawtucket & Boston.  If Ellsbury improved after a year lost to injuries, why can't Kalish? It sounds like we're not all that far apart - I think my expectations are a little lower for Ellsbury in the coming years, so my trade demands are a little lower.  But if you got your top of the line pitcher, how would you replace Ellsbury in CF?
    Posted by slomag
    Ellsbury had already shown that he's a ML player before his injuries. Kalish has not. Ellsbury was both smart and wise. He put distance between himself and an organization that was giving him no support, to put it politely. He got out of town, went to the right rehab center, and came back rarin' to go. And go he did.
    I like to go with a player on the upswing. Ellsbury could be on the verge of becoming one of the great players in baseball. Or not. But it's worth keeping him to find out, unless the Sox are pretty sure they won't be able to retain him and can get top quality in return -- now, if necessary.  It's pretty clear that Theo signed Crawford to replace Ellsbury -- and made a mess, so far.
    If it turns out that the Sox choose to or are forced to trade Ellsbury now or down the road, the club will have created its own problem in center. I have no idea how the club would solve it. 

     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    Oh goodie! Now sloman is comparing Hillbilly Josh's MINOR league numbers to Ellsbury's MAJOR league numbers. Lots of credibility there. Let's just trade a once in a decade player for anybody, just to give Kalish/Reddick a chance. Let's just assume there's no way Ellsbury will re-sign with the Sox, so let's dump him right now. Dee tee dee! Dee tee dee!
    Posted by GhostofTito


    Maybe despising a player because of his place of birth will boost my credibility.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : Ellsbury had already shown that he's a ML player before his injuries. Kalish has not. Ellsbury was both smart and wise. He put distance between himself and an organization that was giving him no support, to put it politely. He got out of town, went to the right rehab center, and came back rarin' to go. And go he did. I like to go with a player on the upswing. Ellsbury could be on the verge of becoming one of the great players in baseball. Or not. But it's worth keeping him to find out, unless the Sox are pretty sure they won't be able to retain him and can get top quality in return -- now, if necessary.  It's pretty clear that Theo signed Crawford to replace Ellsbury -- and made a mess, so far. If it turns out that the Sox choose to or are forced to trade Ellsbury now or down the road, the club will have created its own problem in center. I have no idea how the club would solve it. 
    Posted by expitch

    Kalish held his own as one of the youngest players in baseball in 2010.  Reddick was above league-average in 2011. Sizemore is a former all-star.  Between the three of them, we can replace 80% of Ellsbury's 2011, which he is unlikely to repeat anyway.


     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    Slomag,
    We disagree about "held his own." You mean "OK"? And that qualifies him to take over in center for the Sox. You just said that Reddick is a AAAA player. Sizemore is a risk. Ellsbury is not.
    I don't know where you get these numbers and state with such certainty that somehow the three named will produce 80% of Ellsbury's output. Ellsbury does not have to repeat exactly his 2011 numbers in order to have a very good year.
    You said that Ellsbury heals 20% slower than -- well, who?  A normal body?
    You have no way of knowing the extent of Ellsbury's injuries or what it took to repair them and get him ready to play baseball the way he did last season. That was the proof of the pudding. Real numbers, in real time, in real ML games.
     
     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    Slomag, We disagree about "held his own." You mean "OK"? And that qualifies him to take over in center for the Sox. You just said that Reddick is a AAAA player. Sizemore is a risk. Ellsbury is not. I don't know where you get these numbers and state with such certainty that somehow the three named will produce 80% of Ellsbury's output. Ellsbury does not have to repeat exactly his 2011 numbers in order to have a very good year. You said that Ellsbury heals 20% slower than -- well, who?  A normal body? You have no way of knowing the extent of Ellsbury's injuries or what it took to repair them and get him ready to play baseball the way he did last season. That was the proof of the pudding. Real numbers, in real time, in real ML games.  
    Posted by expitch
    My advice is to drop the subject of Ellsbury and his prospective replacements instead of pulling numbers out of thin air.
    Let's wait to see what happens either in the trade market of on the field of play.

     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    Slomag, We disagree about "held his own." You mean "OK"? And that qualifies him to take over in center for the Sox. You just said that Reddick is a AAAA player. Sizemore is a risk. Ellsbury is not. I don't know where you get these numbers and state with such certainty that somehow the three named will produce 80% of Ellsbury's output. Ellsbury does not have to repeat exactly his 2011 numbers in order to have a very good year. You said that Ellsbury heals 20% slower than -- well, who?  A normal body? You have no way of knowing the extent of Ellsbury's injuries or what it took to repair them and get him ready to play baseball the way he did last season. That was the proof of the pudding. Real numbers, in real time, in real ML games.  
    Posted by expitch

    You're all over the board here.  

    1) Kalish was "OK" at age 22, which could mean very good at age 24.  I give him a 35% chance of reaching an OPS of .780 in 500 PAs.

    2) I never said Reddick is a AAAA player.  I think he can be a bit better than Trot Nixon.  I don't think he's a superstar, but I give him a 60% chance of besting .780 OPS in 500 PAs.

    3) Sizemore is an injury risk, but Ellsbury has lost about 25% of his career to injuries so far.  He's not exactly an iron man.  Sizemore isn't a fluke - if he's healthy, he's terrific, and since doctors give his surgery an 80% chance of full recovery, I give him a 70% chance of a .780 OPS.

    4) I don't know any of this for certain, but you don't know what to expect from Ellsbury, either.  Nate McLouth once led the league in doubles, and now Atlanta can't give him away.  You don't have a higher ground on certainty.

    5) I don't think there is any bone in any human body that takes six months to heal, but you're right, I don't know all of the details.

    6) Ellsbury had an incredible 2011, but he was well above his averages in every category.  It's not impossible that he will continue to improve, but at age 28, a regression is much more likely.


     
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    Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block

    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block:
    In Response to Re: Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado on the Trading block : You're all over the board here.   1) Kalish was "OK" at age 22, which could mean very good at age 24.  I give him a 35% chance of reaching an OPS of .780 in 500 PAs. 2) I never said Reddick is a AAAA player.  I think he can be a bit better than Trot Nixon.  I don't think he's a superstar, but I give him a 60% chance of besting .780 OPS in 500 PAs. 3) Sizemore is an injury risk, but Ellsbury has lost about 25% of his career to injuries so far.  He's not exactly an iron man.  Sizemore isn't a fluke - if he's healthy, he's terrific, and since doctors give his surgery an 80% chance of full recovery, I give him a 70% chance of a .780 OPS. 4) I don't know any of this for certain, but you don't know what to expect from Ellsbury, either.  Nate McLouth once led the league in doubles, and now Atlanta can't give him away.  You don't have a higher ground on certainty. 5) I don't think there is any bone in any human body that takes six months to heal, but you're right, I don't know all of the details. 6) Ellsbury had an incredible 2011, but he was well above his averages in every category.  It's not impossible that he will continue to improve, but at age 28, a regression is much more likely.
    Posted by slomag
    Talk about all over the board. All those percentages don't amount to a hill of beans.
    Did McLough ever have a year even remotely close to Ellsbury's in 2011?
    OK at age 22 means only that. Age 24 has yet to be seen.
    Sorry about Reddick as a AAAA player. It was beantowne who said it. I think he's probably right.
    As I said, I'll wait to see what happens either in the trade market or on the field of play. A regression, maybe, but even so how much? You wish.

     
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