Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from steelheadfisherman. Show steelheadfisherman's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    Dose the pitcher or the catcher get to read those charts during the game? Does the caddy get a librarian too?

    You make my point well softlaw. The catcher is responsible for retaining that knowledge. No one does this better than Jason Varitek.

    Thanks man.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    I consider it very unlikely that more than a very few pitchers do their own charts and then memorize them so they can call their own pitches.

    Smart pitchers will focus on execution during the game, not on deciding which pitch to throw in which situation. 

    Maybe that's why Scioscia likes to all the pitches from the dugout. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    Vatiek's last 8 squats make my point for me, deadhead, full pun intended.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from steelheadfisherman. Show steelheadfisherman's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    In Response to Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!:
    Vatiek's last 8 squats make my point for me, deadhead, full pun intended.
    Posted by SoxSoldRed


    His body of evidence makes all the points I need. I suppose a statistical genious like yourself knows to take the small sample size to make a point when the large sample size disproves the point.

    You're pretty easy to outsmart, even if you will keep defending an incorrect point.

    Winning!
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    In Response to Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!:
    In Response to Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts! : His body of evidence makes all the points I need. I suppose a statistical genious like yourself knows to take the small sample size to make a point when the large sample size disproves the point. You're pretty easy to outsmart, even if you will keep defending an incorrect point. Winning!
    Posted by steelheadfisherman


    Can you believe this guy?  He calls you a name, 'deadhead' and on another thread he's complaining about forum bullies.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from steelheadfisherman. Show steelheadfisherman's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    The odd thing is, I am a deadhead. I'm a big fan. I guess he thinks that would hurt my feelings. Sillly softy, the interwebz is not for everyone......and neither is logic.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from chuchos. Show chuchos's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    In Response to Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!:
    In Response to Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts! : that was my question.
    Posted by Bralon
    If he can switch throw, lefty out of the pen!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    Great point, Churcos.

    Deadhead, pretty clear you have read the book "How to Lie with Statistics". But you aren't very good on understanding the chapter "How to make a comprehensive career sample skewed".

    You have the brain cells that a deadhead has.

    I'm an "anything musical strings" player, so I'm familiar with Jerry Garcia et al. The drugs did not help the music, but they did make a lot of bad music sound good to the impaired audience. AOS3 was the sound engineer for a lot of the material, and a very authetic critic.

    David Grisman and "Old and In the Way" sessions are quite good.

    Are you a hack musician, as well as a drivel writer?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from stillallbost08. Show stillallbost08's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    not only has he allowed 44 runs in his last 8 starts, he has also allowed 44 runs in his last 9 starts.  Funny that softy didn't want to include the 6-0 game. I actually didn't add up the runs scored but did notice that the 9th game was a shut out.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from stillallbost08. Show stillallbost08's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    was tek even in the last game when paps gave up the 4 runs?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from steelheadfisherman. Show steelheadfisherman's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    When the poster with opposing you posts an insult only thread you win. This means that I win and softy loses.

    Ding ding ding....Steelhead fisherman is the winner. Softy is headed to the cutman!
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    The "9th game" wasn't a start.

    Tek was in the game and lost his cool. Please don't try and pretend that those runs get charged to Wally.


    Anthony Weiner
    AP Photo
    Don't cry, Tony, we're all human, no matter how bad our coduct that we lied about is.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_congressman_twitter_photo

    NEW YORK – After days of denials, a choked-up New York Democratic Rep. Anthony Weiner confessed Monday that he tweeted a photo of his bulging underpants to a woman and admitted to "inappropriate" exchanges with six women before and after getting married. He apologized for lying but said he would not resign.

    Weiner said at a news conference that he had never personally met any of the women he corresponded with online and sometimes via telephone, and was not even sure of their ages. He also said he had never had sex outside of his marriage.

    "This was me doing a dumb thing, and doing it repeatedly, and lying about it," he said.

    He said he did not feel the scandal affected his work as a lawmaker but would understand if his constituents decided not to re-elect him.

    "I'm going to work very hard to win back their trust,"

    NY loves Weiner and they still trust him. They knew who he was and elected him for who he is. He is one of their best, so he will continue to represent them. What he did wasn't sex, so what's the big deal. He was just having fun. Keep fighting for the right way of life, Tony.

    Varitek has had a fall from grace, but he is still graceful enough to catch until he, and only he decides he doesn't want to catch for the Red Sox anymore. He will not quit, and neither will Weiner.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    Well here is an example Moon that at least scratches at a logical explanation for the illogical conclusions drawn from the stats:

    Buchholz had tightness in his lower back during his start against the Tigers May 29 and pitched with a degree of caution against the Athletics Friday. Pitching coach Curt Young noticed that Buchholz was not fully extending as he released pitches.

    As a result, perhaps, he allowed eight earned runs over 10 2/3 innings in those two games.

    The catcher who catches those 10 2/3rds calculated in CERA, as though he had a bad lower back, bad extension on his release. There is no way to know if this evens out over a season or not.

    The other catcher caught a game this year where Buch lived a cat's life of nine lives. In two games Buch was awful. In one game he allowed (12 hits - 2 BB) 14 baserunners in 6 2/3 but only 4 runs. In the next start Buch allowed 10 baserunners in 6 2/3 but only allowed 2 runs.

    But when two different catcher's own it as CERA it is 8 allowed in 10 2/3rds (6.75 CERA) versus (4.05 CERA). Having watched the four games and in particular the game versus Baltimore with the 14 base runners IMO luck and defense has a lot more to do with that short sample set than the catchers.

    And in fairness for much of Tek's career he almost exclusively caught the majority of the staff and somebody, anybody else was asked to deal with the knuckleball. So the decade of data is a misleading though impressive claim.

    Just what the numbers mean is very hard to say. The numbers last year said that Lester was slightly above his career averages with Victor and the 1968 version of Bob Gibson with Tek. Lester is a fine pitcher but over 32 starts last year he was not going to be sub 2.00 ERA pitcher who only wasn't because of the catcher.

    The 2010 Red Sox with all the bumps and bruises their pitching staff had was not going to allow fewer runs than any other team in MLB if only Tek had caught all 162 games but that is what the numbers say.

    Tek is a fine catcher in his twilight. Pitchers have always been very complimentary. Those factors make his continued place on the RS roster possible.

    But when we go to the extreme of trying to quantify it by comparing stats, even if from the same pitchers, on different days, against different teams that may be running collectively hot or cold at any point in time you are going to find it hard to get a great followership. And when some of the variances that calculation produces are presented as though they are 100% statistical valid, the argument loses even more credibility.

    All the numbers say is that different catchers, catching the same staff on different days, in different conditions, with different umpires have different results.

    In baseball we love our numbers, we count everything but measuring the quality of a catcher's contribution to the pitcher may be one of those things that has to be taken for granted based on what the players and managers think about it.

    Just my take
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    And in fairness for much of Tek's career he almost exclusively caught the majority of the staff and somebody, anybody else was asked to deal with the knuckleball. So the decade of data is a misleading though impressive claim.

    Not if you look at the numbers pitcher by pitcher and not the overall team CERA number as softy and others here think the stats is supposed to be used.

    By going pitcher by pitche and not counting those ne cathcer caught almost exclusively, then a comparison can be made. Yes, there are still flaws, but it can be usedas one tool to judge by. That is why I am always careful to say CERA-related issues. It is not all about CERA. Nobody is saying that, except softy after a bad VTek game.

    Plus, the fact that VTek has not caught Wake much at all for several years, does not mean he has cught "the better pitches" over the years. Last year VTek did not catch Buch and barely caught Lester. In 2009, I painstakenly broke down the innings each catcher caught with each catcher and found that VTek actually caught more innings with the scrub pitchers than the back-ups and those innings counterbalanced the Wake innings and then some.

    CERA isnot suposed to be used in "whole staff form" for obvious reasons. It is not supposed to be used in tiny sample sizes.

    The fact remains that year after year after year after year VTek has continually gotten the same pitchers during the same years to do better with him than his back-up. The trend is now about 12 years running for VTek. Trends with othr cathcers are lengthy and profound as well. VMart's sub almost always does better than him (with the same pitches), no matter what team. Mathis vs Napoli. Posada vs his sub. Almsot always the same result.

    Do you really think it is all luck? Wouldn't you expect the numbers to flip for just on year? Vtek always does better with the majority of the pitchers both catchers catch a significant amount of innings. Usually it is something like 7 out of 8 pitchers, 7 out of 9, 6 out of 8, etc... If it was luck, wouldn't there be one year where the other catcher would have a "lucky year"?

    Nobody has yet explaned why this is just luck. If it is a 50-50 bet, anyone here want to bet me that VTek will continue having a better CERA than Salty the rest of the year? I'll give you 3-1 odds on a "50-50" bet. Th criteria is that we compare each catcher with each individual pitcher. If both catchers catch at least 25% of the innings of that pitcher and the toal is over 25 IP, then that sample counts. If not, neither gets credit for "getting the most" out ofthat pitcher. I guaranteed VTek will do better than salty with the majority that fulfill the criteria. 3-1 odds.

    Any takers?

    The numbers last year said that Lester was slightly above his career averages with Victor and the 1968 version of Bob Gibson with Tek. Lester is a fine pitcher but over 32 starts last year he was not going to be sub 2.00 ERA pitcher who only wasn't because of the catcher.

    The fact is, Lester still did much bette with VTek last year. Yes, he did fine with VMart, but he did better with VTek. This is how CERA should be used.
    Here are the 2010 numbers with Lester:

    VMart: (136)  3.64  (.656 OPS)
    VTek:   (38.1) 1.88  (.492)
    Cash:   (26.2) 3.38  (.649) 

    Almost evey other pitcher on the Sox had similar better numbers with VTek. The same in 2009. The same in 2008. The same in...
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    Another lame attempt by you-know-who to paint this subject matter black.
    Moon, when you were willing to bet and give odds, it hit home big time!!!

    Katzmakes a point that game conditions, umps, etc. change and this makes the analogy questionable as not everything is gonna equal out, especially given the short SS data.

    Well, the same can be said for hitters. J.D. Drew might hit a certain pitcher well, even over a long sample, but that doesn't change the fact that every situation was different.
    1) Was J.D. hot going into a given game? Seeing the ball really well?
    2) What what the pitcher's form like? Hot or cold?
    3) Weather - wind blowing in or out? humid? Dry?
    4) What was the stress level of each at bat? A blowout? Late innings? Game on the line?

    This goes for all stat averages. That's why they are called averages.
    Stats are flawed for this very reason. So, anytime any stats are applied, this must be taken into consideration.

    In this context, CERA/WHIP/BABIP/etc. should be weighed evenly.
    Moon points out why the consistency exists year in and year out. Same for a "good CERA" catcher as with a poor one. Nobody has an answer for that one. Nor will they bet against it.

    Furthermore, while data can be skewed one way or another by pitchers form and health, it works both ways.Why is it that those who choose to refute the numbers or minimize them or distort them never mention how that very data might in fact be on the lower side! If Lester is 1.88 with Tek, why couldn't it be 1.56 had certain elements been changed? Or, his ERA with VMART could have easily been 4.32 if such and such occurred. This is why I don't like to remove or distort stats. Nothing wrong with illuminating or isolating a give stat. But if opponents to this really want to see this fair, beyond winning a cyberspace argument, then be just that.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    If the thread OP bothered to research the latest pitching swoon, he might have found that:

    1) Lester is throwing 2-3 MPH less than he did last year. He has rarely thrown his curve. He's become a two-pitch pony with a change to keep hitters honest.
    He's more predictable as a result.

    2) Buch's velocity is down around the same differential. Could be back issues, or it could be related to questionable mechanics.

    3) They lost Hill.

    4) They lost Dice

    5) They lost Jenks

    6) They lost Wheeler

    7) They were without Lackey.

    8) Bard is regressing from his "role". He's being primed to close, and has gone in the other direction, becoming an iffy set-up guy.

    When a rash of injuries and lack of focus and poor mechanics plague a staff all at one time, I'm looking beyond the catcher...

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    Excuses are like old washed up veterans, every team has them.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    And every team goes through hills and valleys.
    You call them excuses. I call them reasons.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    This isn't about the team, it's about CERA myth and the Jason Varitek myth.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    And I believe that's been addressed.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    yes, 44 runs in his last 8 starts has addressed it.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    It sounds all kinds of nice to say 2008 and before but Moon, Tek was a 130 game catcher that did not catch Wakefield. 130+30 starts for Wake equals 160. And 2009 the sample sets were very uneven and pretty much the same in 2010.

    And you failed to comment on the two catcher example I showed for Buch. Same pitcher.

    The fact remains even with same pitcher, you are looking at different days, different conditions, different opponents and the pitcher very well has different command.  The difference was in part luck in my small sample set example. Anytime you allow 14 baserunners and only 4 runs it is luck. Meanwhile the sample set contains two games for Salty that Buch played with a bad back. Salty is going to carry those games along with him while TEk has two games that were poorly pitched but managed to contain runs scored.

    I can't believe you are sticking with the Lester CERA by the way. It so obviously an anomaly. He is an outstanding pitcher but Tek wasn't going to make him a under 2.00 ERA guy in 2010 if he caught him 32 times. Changing the stats over to OPS is just the same baloney in a different wrapper.

    Pitcher by pitcher still totals up to staff. And there have been references by the other CERA believer to the staff ERAs. Either when the results were tallied up, the reult was 1.5 runs a game and that number was batted around a lot by CERA proponents. The 1.5 runs a game applied to 162 say that RS would have given up 243 fewer runs with Varitek catching. That number is silly enough no other comment need be made.

    Nobody is going to convert those who think they have charted waters that even Bill James has not but then again don't be surprised when BDC does not buy into it in mass.

    As for nobody making an argument, plenty have and none are accepted because the calculator says X so it must be true.

    But I did just try and show you how the numbers can give a false positive with a small sample set, an injury report and a slightly deeper look at the starts the different catchers caught, on different days, against different teams in different conditions.

    I am not going to say a catcher can't influence the results a pitcher produces but the metric is not commonly used in the industry for a reason and it isn't that the rest of the world hasn't seen the light IMO. Larger samples with deep background is just more work that is not what I do well, so I depart the field, another skeptic warn down for the moment any way.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    Here's the breakdown of CERA by pitchers with over 25 IP this year.

    Note: almost all sample comparisons have lopsided IP differentials and/or small sample sizes, but here are the number (Red is the leader in CERA)
             (IP) CERA  Opponents OPS

    Beckett:
    w VTek (71)  1.77  (.505)
    w Salty  (5)    5.40  (.796)
    Sample size too small for comparative purposes
    (same as Buch was last year).

    Lester:
    w VTek       (7)   3.86  (.613) Sample size to small to judge comparatively.
    w Salty (68.1)   3.95  (.759)

    Buchholtz
    w VTek  (18.2)  3.38  (.841) A wide IP differential: too small to judge.
    w Salty    (52)   3.98 
    (.729)

    Lackey
    w VTek    (0)
    w Salty   (45)  7.60  (.880)  Can't be compared.

    Dice-K
    w VTek  (35.1)  3.82    (.545)
    w Salty    (2.0) 31.50  (1.768) Too small

    Wakefield
    w VTek   (3.2)  2.45  (.517) Too small
    w Salty (39.1)  4.58  (.743)

    Aceves
    w VTek  (16.2)  4.35  (.683) A close IP sample, but still both are rather small.
    w Salty  (20.2)  2.16  (.656)

    Bard
    w Vtek  (15.0)  1.80  (.644) The closest, but 15 IP is still too small so far.
    w Salty (15.1)  4.11 
    (.533)

    Papelbon
    w VTek  (11.0)  4.09  (.653)
    v Salty    (14.0)  4.50  (.717) Close comp in IP, but both sample sizes too small.


    Sidenote: although CERA is not meant to be used as a total team number, here is the total comparison:

    Staff with...
    VTek  (220)  3.35  (.643)
    Salty  (311)  4.75  (.756)

    Some laughed when I said VTek might make a 0.75 ERA difference over a full year of numbers.

    The numbers are inconclusive so far due to small sample sizes and/or wide disparities in IP by catcher; however the trend seems to point towards VTek doing better with all but Aceves thus far (7 out of 8 pitchers so far).

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxSoldRed. Show SoxSoldRed's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    Without CERA, Jason Varitek is little more than Mike Lowell, 2010. A catcher's primary duty is to keep the ball in front of him, study the hitter charts and plan a sequence, throw the ball accurately and with some authority. Varitek fails on every defensive skill. Studying the charts isn't a skill, it's simply a duty that every catcher much do.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jason Varitek has Allowed 44 Runs in his Last 8 Pitching Starts!

    Some do their "duty" much better than others.

    Glad to see you at last admit they do some "planning".
     
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