JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    I actually think JBJ will be a polarizing figure here in Boston.  First of all, there will always be a certain percentage of the fan base who expects the team to have an above average player at every position, and will compare JBJ to Ellsbury's production.  Ellsbury was one of the better hitters in the league let alone CFer's.

    JBJ is also going to be the kind of player that does all the little things that don't show up on the stat-sheet.  He's the guy who sees the outfielder mis play a ball so he stretches a single into a double, the guy who works 12-13 pitch at bats etc etc. He won't excel anywhere but he will do everything decently and his defense will be his true plus plus tool.

    To me...that is a very good player who can start on a first division team.  But there will be those who expect so much more out of him and never appreciate those things.  Oh well.....*I'm already a JBJ fan and I think he is going to be a great player. 

     



    Really?  We sure didn't see too many 12 - 13 pitch at bats last year, & we won't see many for quite some time if he can't learn to pick up the breaking ball cutting inside & low from a major league pitcher.

     

    Seriously....  Some of you are reaching way too far.  I love the kid, but we better plan on being VERY PATIENT.  Could he come out hitting, with great plate discipline right from the get go?  Sure.  Is it likely.  No!  Will he likely struggle........  for god knows how long?  Probably.  

    Will he likely be a good mlb hitter?  I think so, but right now the mlb dust bins are littered with guys who were excellent hitters in the minors, but never could make the leap.  Do I think this happens with JBJ?  NO!  I think he'll do just fine, but it will VERY LIKELY take several years of rocky roads.

    As for the rediculous OP asserting that JBJ "is a defensive upgrade."  Ignorant!  Rediculous!  Reaching!  Hope against hope!  The kid has not proven a single thing yet, & looked out of place last year when called up in CF.  Ells, ASIDE FROM BEING ARMED WITH MY AUNTS ARM, is one of the best in the business!!!!  PERIOD!  His speed & field knowledge make up for a world of faults.  As far as him costing us extra bases??? Please!  It simply never happened.  Were there the rare occasions where a guy was able to go from 1st to third because of his WEAK SISTER arm?  Yep!  Sorry, it was negligible at best.  The rest of his defensive game was top of the league.

    To even think about putting a completely unproven kid, who would be absolutely wet behind the ears if he had ever even seen the water, above Ells, is beyond absurd. WAY Beyond absurd!  

    Yes guys.  We're all going to miss Ells........   but, that's simply not a good enough reason to REACH & start the campaign to induct JBJ into the coming mlb Hall of Fame.  

    Let's hope the folks pushing for the premature HOF vote have patience when things get rocky.  I'm good with the kid knowing that it may not be pretty til year 2 or 3.




    Don't you think it's a little over the top to suggest that I'm suggesting people are already electing him to the hall of fame?  because we are not.

    And people are putting his DEFENSE above ells, not his total package...and FWIW...EVERYONE is doing that.

    You can only predict how a guy will hit at the MLB level with a small level of certainty and I agree that even though I think he will be a good player he still may have some adversity to endure 

    But You can tell how a guys defense will play in single A.  A line drive is a line drive etc etc etc and just about every person in the scouting community puts JBJ defense as some of the best they have ever seen. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    Poor JBJ he is going to be judged more critically in Boston because he's black??? I guess there are still Neanderthals out there that still feel that way...FYI, Tom Yawkey has been gone for a long time boys!

    On the other hand, we have the others who tear at Ellsbury and try to put Bradley on a pedestal just because Ellsbury is no longer a Red Sox.

    How about we put away the racial comments and over optimism and just let the kid play and show us what he's got. If he is even 50% of Ellsbury in 2014 we should all be happy...these defensive deficiencies for Ells are a joke also...granted he doesn't have a rocket for an arm, but he cover cover ground and make plays in CF with the best of them...so lets give that a break also.

    No matter what the Sox brass say, they too are not 100% sold on JBJ just yet or they would not have brought Sizemore in for depth.

    The Sox lost out bigtime losing Ellsbury, IMO, and were burnt two-fold by him going to the Yankees...let's hope JBJ or Sizemore make us forget about Ells being gone quickly.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/al-east-links-blue-jays-drew-sizemore-red-sox.html

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    I really don't see anyone around here wanting to put Bradley in the HOF. If anything, he's kind of underrated around this board now because a lot of posters think he sucks and will continue to suck based on his first 100 or so major league PA's.

    It's become cliched to bring up the Pedroia example to urge patience with young prospects, but I can very well remember the cries of "Get rid of this bum, he can't hit!" when Pedey was hitting below .200 in May 2007.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    Ellsbury is a gold glove centerfielder. If Bradley truly is a defensive upgrade, it will be wonderful.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    Ellsbury is a gold glove centerfielder. If Bradley truly is a defensive upgrade, it will be wonderful.



    Well, that kinda cuts through the BS, doesn't it?  Innocent

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    Bradley last year hit .256 in June, .224 July, .253 in Aug.  For Pawtucket. If he hits .250 next year, plays Good Defense, I will not have a problem. Still young.

    Sometimes his patience is counter-productive. Gets behind in counts, then Pitchers make him swing at their Pitches. Sometimes its good to be aggresive.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    Out of the top 100 prospects JBJ ranked #1 in terms of defense.

    Ellsbury has one GG...I'd be willing to bet (if he stays healthy and plays full time) JBJ will have multiple GG's and more than Ellsbury by the time his career ends.

    The idea that Ellsbury is an elite defender is subjective with some scouts unimpressed with his routes and arm strength.  Bradely is the complete package and there is not a scout in the world who is not impressed with his defense and hasn't tagged it plus plus to elite. 

    If he hits only .250 with an OBP north of .300 his first year.  Then I think that will be fine, with an eye for improvement.....But I'd be willing to bet he does more than that.

    I say he hits .265 with a .335 OBP next year, and is top 3 in GG voting. I think he will have more power than Ells too (at least potentially) 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Out of the top 100 prospects JBJ ranked #1 in terms of defense.

    Ellsbury has one GG...I'd be willing to bet (if he stays healthy and plays full time) JBJ will have multiple GG's and more than Ellsbury by the time his career ends.

    The idea that Ellsbury is an elite defender is subjective with some scouts unimpressed with his routes and arm strength.  Bradely is the complete package and there is not a scout in the world who is not impressed with his defense and hasn't tagged it plus plus to elite. 

    If he hits only .250 with an OBP north of .300 his first year.  Then I think that will be fine, with an eye for improvement.....But I'd be willing to bet he does more than that.

    I say he hits .265 with a .335 OBP next year, and is top 3 in GG voting. I think he will have more power than Ells too (at least potentially) 



    I think you may be right about this - and I certainly hope you are.  

    It's going to be interesting to see how the fans are going to react to a .265 down-in-the-order player who plays stellar defense.  Unfortunately while offense is something that's easily quantified, defense isn't.  We had a spirited discussion on this board during the middle of last season regarding how bad an offense we'd be willing to put up with to keep a GG defensive player. 

    IIRC the general consensus was that as long as that player could bat >~.240 he'd be an asset to the team,  but that's not what fans in Boston are accustomed to from their CF.  If the team continues to score runs without Ellsbury JBJ may get a pass, but if the offense struggles JBJ could get the blame for it. 

    I can see JBJ being a victim of the old saying, "Never replace the legend.  Be the guy who replaces the guy who replaced the legend."

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    JBJ defense is considered ELITE.

    from MLB's best tools. 

     

    "Best defender: Jackie Bradley, OF, Red Sox

    Though his speed grades as solid at best, Bradley has an innate ability to read balls off the bat that allows him to chase down balls from gap to gap in center field. His defensive prowess helped spur South Carolina to consecutive College World Series championships in 2010-11, and it enabled him to make Boston's Opening Day roster last year at age 22. The Red Sox may miss Jacoby Ellsbury's bat this season, but Bradley will be a defensive upgrade over the $153 million free agent"

    And I'm basing what type of hitter I think he will be based on what he has done his entire pro career and his college days as well and not 100 at bats at the MLB level when he was obviously rushed. 

    So while everyone is rushing to judgement because of a small sample size.....everyone in the scouting community has JBJ ranked higher this year. 


    In other words the baseball world in the knows are fully aware that he was rushed and he did nothing to hurt....and actually helped his prospect status last year.

    JBJ is going to be a very good ballplayer. 



    Exactly. 

    The kid had just 107 PAs with the Sox last year. Even if those were in oe continuous stretch, the sample size is way too small, but he only played 4 days in a row twice with Boston (April 4-7 & July 9-12).

    He had 38 PAs during his April stint.

    He had just 21 during his late May/early June stint, including 2 from late inning replacement.

    He had just 7 PAs in his July stint.

    Only his September stint was noteworthy in terms of playing FT for more than 17 days, and that was only for 22 days and 41 PAs.

    Although this is even a smaller sample size than the one I am criticizing others for using, he did have 3 HRs and 4 DBLs over his final 59 ABs.

     

    Looking at JBJ's total body of work at the plate, there is very little reason to believe he will fail at the ML level.

    College:

    2009: .968 OPS

    2010: 1.060

    2011: .829 (about a half season)

    Pros:

    2011: .686 (in just 40 PAs with Lowell & Greenville)

    2012: 1.006 (A+ in 304 PAs)

                  .809 (AA in 271 PAs)

                  .911 combined

    2013: .842 (AAA in 374 PAs, including 39 XBHs)

    Overall, his minor league numbers show he gets an XBH every 10 PAs or so (96 in 819 ABs). He has a .404 career minor league OBP and a .471 SLG%.

    The comparison to Ellsbury is hard to ignore, even though JBJ is a different type of player, but Jacoby had a .390 OBP in the minors and a .426 SLG%. I'm not saying this means JBJ will be a better hitter, but it is certainly not crazy to think he may end up with a similar OPS eventually.

    The loss of speed on the basepaths will hurt, but the gain in financial flexibilty should more than make up for the drop offs between Jacoby and JBj going forward.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Out of the top 100 prospects JBJ ranked #1 in terms of defense.

    Ellsbury has one GG...I'd be willing to bet (if he stays healthy and plays full time) JBJ will have multiple GG's and more than Ellsbury by the time his career ends.

    The idea that Ellsbury is an elite defender is subjective with some scouts unimpressed with his routes and arm strength.  Bradely is the complete package and there is not a scout in the world who is not impressed with his defense and hasn't tagged it plus plus to elite. 

    If he hits only .250 with an OBP north of .300 his first year.  Then I think that will be fine, with an eye for improvement.....But I'd be willing to bet he does more than that.

    I say he hits .265 with a .335 OBP next year, and is top 3 in GG voting. I think he will have more power than Ells too (at least potentially) 



    If he hits .280-.300 in the Clutch I'll take that all day long. Most important stat to me in Baseball, for Offense. Clutch hitting.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    In response to jpBsSoxFan's comment:


    He might be a little bit better defensively but he is nowhere near the hitter that Ells is. The kid can't hit to save his life. Sox will miss those leadoff hits Ells provided for them.




    They will miss his base running ability even more than his bat. Every time Ellsbury gets on base, the pitcher gets spooked; next hitter has big advantage. Add the extra bases taken on base hits, 50-60 SB, and there's no contest here (i.e., Bradley vs Ellsbury). People have a habit of belittleing the guys that go. Be real, it's a double loss because of whre he went!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jpBsSoxFan. Show jpBsSoxFan's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    In response to bosoxmal's comment:

    In response to jpBsSoxFan's comment:


    He might be a little bit better defensively but he is nowhere near the hitter that Ells is. The kid can't hit to save his life. Sox will miss those leadoff hits Ells provided for them.




    They will miss his base running ability even more than his bat. Every time Ellsbury gets on base, the pitcher gets spooked; next hitter has big advantage. Add the extra bases taken on base hits, 50-60 SB, and there's no contest here (i.e., Bradley vs Ellsbury). People have a habit of belittleing the guys that go. Be real, it's a double loss because of whre he went!



    Yep, Ellsbury and Gardner will be a total nightmare on the bases for every opposing team next season !!

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    In response to crazy-world-of-troybrown's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Out of the top 100 prospects JBJ ranked #1 in terms of defense.

    Ellsbury has one GG...I'd be willing to bet (if he stays healthy and plays full time) JBJ will have multiple GG's and more than Ellsbury by the time his career ends.

    The idea that Ellsbury is an elite defender is subjective with some scouts unimpressed with his routes and arm strength.  Bradely is the complete package and there is not a scout in the world who is not impressed with his defense and hasn't tagged it plus plus to elite. 

    If he hits only .250 with an OBP north of .300 his first year.  Then I think that will be fine, with an eye for improvement.....But I'd be willing to bet he does more than that.

    I say he hits .265 with a .335 OBP next year, and is top 3 in GG voting. I think he will have more power than Ells too (at least potentially) 

     



    If he hits .280-.300 in the Clutch I'll take that all day long. Most important stat to me in Baseball, for Offense. Clutch hitting.

     



    The problem with that very important stat is that no player is ever to sustain a high clutch number consistently over his career. It is hard to trade or try to acquire a "clutch hitter", because the chances of a recent clutch hitter continuing to be clutch the next year or two are remote.

    I remember when we got Jack Clark; I thought, "oh great! we finally got ourselves a clutch hitter". He wasn't bad for us, but he didn't continue what he had done before. How about that stretch where Miguel Tejada was "el fuego" in the clutch with the A's? Did he continue that with the O's? Not even close.

    My point is, it is hard to build a team of "clutch hitters", since the act of consistently staying clutch is elusive. Sure, some player seem to come up big more than others rather consistently, but even guys like Papi go through 2-3 year stretches of being non-clutch.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    He might be a little bit better defensively but he is nowhere near the hitter that Ells is. The kid can't hit to save his life.

    This is worse than any phantom poster putting JBj in the HOF.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    In response to jpBsSoxFan's comment:

    In response to bosoxmal's comment:

    In response to jpBsSoxFan's comment:


    He might be a little bit better defensively but he is nowhere near the hitter that Ells is. The kid can't hit to save his life. Sox will miss those leadoff hits Ells provided for them.




    They will miss his base running ability even more than his bat. Every time Ellsbury gets on base, the pitcher gets spooked; next hitter has big advantage. Add the extra bases taken on base hits, 50-60 SB, and there's no contest here (i.e., Bradley vs Ellsbury). People have a habit of belittleing the guys that go. Be real, it's a double loss because of whre he went!



    Yep, Ellsbury and Gardner will be a total nightmare on the bases for every opposing team next season !!



    Just like Ellsbury and Crawford were going to be. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    They will miss his base running ability even more than his bat. Every time Ellsbury gets on base, the pitcher gets spooked; next hitter has big advantage. 

    Not always. Sometimes a batter is "spooked" by a runner taking off and feels like he has to protect the runner, thereby changing his swing and approach, but your point is well taken. Jacoby on the bases will be missed.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from steven11. Show steven11's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    In response to Kingface12's comment:

    In response to charliedarling's comment:

    I would agree that Bradley is going to be large defensive upgrade over Ellsbury in center field.

    To start with, Bradley can throw much, much better.  Ellsbury has a pop gun arm and has (and will) give up lots of extra bases because of his weak arm.  There must be some stat somewhere that would show us just how many bases he gave up to runners going from first to third and from second to home.

    Bradley will give up some of these bases as well, but not at the rate that Ellsbury did.  Lots of guys even tagged and moved up bases on Ellsbury's arm even when he was not deep to catch the fly ball.  EVERY runner scored from third on a fly ball to Ellsbury as well.

    Bradley will catch many balls that elluded Ellsbury because he is going to take better paths to where the ball will come down.  I doubt that you will see him having to change direction often when chasing down a ball like Ellsbury did for many seasons (although not so much last year).

    Bradley may not get to some balls that Ellsbury did, however, because he does not have the same blazing speed, but in the end will be a better overall defender than Ellsbury was for the Red Sox.




    I respect your opinion.....and agree with some, but disagree with others.  I think that without a DOUBT JBJs arm is MUCH better than Ells.....I think that's where it ends though.  There is NO WAY JBJ will get to balls that Ells couldn't because of the route he takes.  JBJ is a solid fielder, but Ells is a former GG'r and got to balls that pretty much NOBODY in baseball could get to.  Victorino who is an EXCELLENT fielder could not get to balls that Ellsbury routinely got to when he filled in for him.  Vic is known as one of the best route runners in all of baseball too.  Ells defense will be sorely missed.....as will his leadoff ability.  I really think this will be a HUGE problem next year....and it's one that has yet to be addressed.




    As far as centerfield goes, they get to balls about the same.  The advantage JBJ has is he can play left and right pretty well. He doesn't really care where he plays in the outfield as long as he plays.

     
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    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    --

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    Here are some JBJ projections from fangraphs:

    Steamer (365 PA) .256    7  39 (33 2B+3B)  (.335/.402/.737)

    Oliver     (600 PA) .254  14  72 (42 2B+ 3B) (.329/.419/.747)

    Fans 15  (544 PA) .268    9  54 (29  2B+3B) (.357/.394/.761)

     

    ~ AVG:  (500)  .260  10  60  (35  2B+3B)  (.340/.410/.750)

    Ells '13  (636) .298     9  53  (39  2B+3B)  (.355/.426/.781)

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    Glad to see we all understand hyperbolic rhetoric.

     

    Now.....    can we get down to being realistic about the kid.  Let's not bury him w unrealistic expectations, like that clown claiming he would be the first rookie ever voted into the HOF.   ;)  

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    ? .790 OPS.    

    Come on now.  Let's just see if he can lay off a couple  of breaking balls down & in after the first half of the season?

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: JBJ described as a defensive upgrade over Jacoby

    My two cents....If we remove Ellsbury from the argument and focus on how the Sox will replace the three components of his game that propelled him to earning 150M...defense in center field, leadoff hitter and base stealing ability. The reality is that Bradley Jr. will be asked to only fill one of three next year and that is playing CF. From all reports I've read the kid is a plus defender. So in my mind that is where the comparison ends. Based on the current roster Victorino will likely leadoff and while he's not the base stealer Ells is he'll still keep the opponents honest..So it is Victorino that will be asked to shoulder the load of replacing Ells at the top of the order and not young Bradley jr. 

    What will be asked of Bradley Jr is that he plays solid defense in center and proves that he can compete at big league level, likely hitting 9th...since the kid has hit at every level and played above average defense at a premium defensive position. He's earned the opportunity to fill a need and get his chance to fulfill his lifetime dream of playing big league baseball. So begining the first day of camp when Bradley arrives it's his job to lose...I wish him success

    For Farrel and Cherington cleary they both see him as possessing the tools to be an above average centerfielder or they would've already made a move to replace Ellsbury's roster spot. So it is incumbent on them to instill confidence in Bradley. Set clear goals in terms of what they want to see from him and then let the kid play. Worse case is Bradley hit below the Mendoza line and they then have to make a move to acquire another OF..best case is he's proves worthy and becomes and impact player who's under the teams control for 6 years playing for pennies on the dollar. Which then allows the organization the payroll flexibility to address positions of need that can't be filled by cost effective prospects to maintian their objective of being a championship level club, playing in the same division with the money rich Yankees of New York.

    Make no mistake about it, Bradley Jr, Middlebrooks & Bogaerts are all keys to the future and thier individual successes will dictate what the club's needs are in the next 3 to 5 years. Because today only Pedrioa represents the profile of player one builds a roster around. Questions that we'll all have answers to by years end...

     
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