Jon Lester and David Price

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Jon Lester and David Price

    Lester is set to hit the open market after 2014 season if not extended by the Red Sox.  David Price is the best SP available in 2016 FA market by far and almost certain he will test the market.  Extending Lester to long term contract will cost big money.  More than $100M will be tied to Lester if he finds way back to Boston.  The following year, when and if Price comes out to the market, it will very likely cost more than what Lester cost.  I can see Price getting about $160-170M with his new team if not more.  It's fair to say if Sox extend Lester, we won't have chance to sign Price.  If Ben lets Lester walk after this season, Ben has Price as his #1 to do list when and if Price hits the market.  

    If Lester walks after the season, Sox will likely have Buccholz and Doubront going into the offseason after 2015 season and our pitching prospects.  Sox will have more than plenty of money without all those veteran pitchers and probably our beloved Papi.  The Tigers will do everything they can to lock up Cabrera before the end of his contract so I don't expect him to be available in 16 market.

    We will have to see what happens after this season but 2015 FA market is pretty weak.  There shouldn't be many names that will improve the Red Sox instantly except for Lester and Hanley Ramirez.   However 2016 market has big names and Sox will have money to spend.  

    What do you see in Lester and Price future with the Red Sox?

    Let's not forget we will have to find replacements for Napoli and Victorino if they do not come back.  

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Jon Lester and David Price

    In response to seannybboi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Lester is set to hit the open market after 2014 season if not extended by the Red Sox.  David Price is the best SP available in 2016 FA market by far and almost certain he will test the market.  Extending Lester to long term contract will cost big money.  More than $100M will be tied to Lester if he finds way back to Boston.  The following year, when and if Price comes out to the market, it will very likely cost more than what Lester cost.  I can see Price getting about $160-170M with his new team if not more.  It's fair to say if Sox extend Lester, we won't have chance to sign Price.  If Ben lets Lester walk after this season, Ben has Price as his #1 to do list when and if Price hits the market.  

    If Lester walks after the season, Sox will likely have Buccholz and Doubront going into the offseason after 2015 season and our pitching prospects.  Sox will have more than plenty of money without all those veteran pitchers and probably our beloved Papi.  The Tigers will do everything they can to lock up Cabrera before the end of his contract so I don't expect him to be available in 16 market.

    We will have to see what happens after this season but 2015 FA market is pretty weak.  There shouldn't be many names that will improve the Red Sox instantly except for Lester and Hanley Ramirez.   However 2016 market has big names and Sox will have money to spend.  

    What do you see in Lester and Price future with the Red Sox?

    Let's not forget we will have to find replacements for Napoli and Victorino if they do not come back.  

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I would think the Sox will make every effort to sign Lester to an extension. The question remains whether Lester and his agent have interest in making a deal? 4 years @ 22M to 24M with a 5th year mutual option might get the conversation started. 

    As for Price, I doubt that Cherington today has given his pending free agency much thought, there's simply to many variables to consider. I am certain that he has at least inquired about the possibility of acquiring him from the Rays, if for no other reason than to gauge just how serious the Ray's are in trading him and what they're looking to get in return. 

    As for the roster construction and the status of current contracts if we buy into the concept of the importance of having a legit #1 to build your rotation around. Job one for Cherington is to secure the services of a pitcher that profiles as a number one to front the rotation beginning in 2015 and beyond...If not Lester than whom? As for the everyday players 2014 will go a long ways in helping to clarify the needs heading into 2015 and beyond. Starting with Bogaerts and where he plays and is he infact an impact middle of the order bat ..currently Pedrioa is the only "cornerstone type" signed beyond 2015 season...While Napoli and Victorino are both key guys, in the near term begining in 2015 and beyond. Imho replacing the production and leadership of David Ortiz is the bigger question. becasue not unlike the #1 pitcher, teams build their lineups around the guys in the middle.

    Given the resources at his disposal, I trust that Cherington will navigate the reconstruction of the nucleaus and continue to field a championship quality team....

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jon Lester and David Price

    They have their TOTR guy in Lester. He should resign here until hes about 35yo and lead this staff. A lot can happen in a year, nevermind 2 years, so I dont want to even comment on Price. Hes not getting traded here so its not a concern right now.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Jon Lester and David Price

    For what it's worth, Oliver projects a five-year WAR* of 21.4 for David Price and 16.1 for Jon Lester, who is now on the elder side of his 30th birthday:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P#longprojection

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P#longprojection

    * Wins Above Replacement

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Jon Lester and David Price

    In response to hill55's comment:

    For what it's worth, Oliver projects a five-year WAR* of 21.4 for David Price and 16.1 for Jon Lester, who is now on the elder side of his 30th birthday:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P#longprojection

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P#longprojection

    * Wins Above Replacement



    Price with two years left on his current deal before reaching free agency, if in the next two years puts toegther a couple of CY worhty campaigns. Is in line to make Kershaw/Verlander money's.....Lester will fall just south of that earning potential given his age and career performance to date....unless he puts together a Cy Young level permance in 2014 and then hits the market healthy next offseason? As we all know and have seen free agency can if two or more of the top dogs get in the mix inflate a players value..See Cliff Lee & Carl Crawford...End of the day both will be very rich young men...how rich depends on health and performance leading up to free agency....

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester and David Price

    Lester's contract offer should be for no more than five years and no more than $18M per year. He is not as good as Kershaw or Verlander or other similar top pitchers in baseball. He is good, but he is second tier. I think his contract should more resemble that of Jered Weaver at 5x$17M. No need to repeat the mistakes the club has made in the past with long term absurdly expensive commitments. If Lester cannot be signed for reasonable money we should let him walk.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Jon Lester and David Price

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    Lester's contract offer should be for no more than five years and no more than $18M per year. He is not as good as Kershaw or Verlander or other similar top pitchers in baseball. He is good, but he is second tier. I think his contract should more resemble that of Jered Weaver at 5x$17M. No need to repeat the mistakes the club has made in the past with long term absurdly expensive commitments. If Lester cannot be signed for reasonable money we should let him walk.

     




     

    I think this is a reasonable sentiment, but while I agree Lester is not in the Kershaw/Verlander/Hernandez class, at the rate salaries are increasing I think we're going to see those type of "true #1" pitchers making $25-30 mil per year, and the second tier of guys like Lester making $20-25, which is roughly where I expect he'll end up.

    I made a post in the Kershaw extension thread about why you can make a case Lester is worthy of a similar contract to what Greinke got in free agency. (I always thought posters here kind of overrated Greinke due to his one Cy Young-level season in 2009, when the rest of the time he was a 3.50-4.00 ERA type pitcher, much like Lester.) It will hurt to pay out that kind of money, but Lester is homegrown, a workhorse, a postseason ace, and has proven he can win in Boston...as long as the money and years don't get insane, I'd rather keep a guy like that around to complement Buchholz, Doubront, and our younger prospects for the next few seasons.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Jon Lester and David Price

    I made a post in the Kershaw extension thread about why you can make a case Lester is worthy of a similar contract to what Greinke got in free agency. (I always thought posters here kind of overrated Greinke due to his one Cy Young-level season in 2009, when the rest of the time he was a 3.50-4.00 ERA type pitcher, much like Lester.) It will hurt to pay out that kind of money, but Lester is homegrown, a workhorse, a postseason ace, and has proven he can win in Boston...as long as the money and years don't get insane, I'd rather keep a guy like that around to complement Buchholz, Doubront, and our younger prospects for the next few seasons.

    Jack,

    I agree it is in the Sox best interest to make every effort to lock up Lester. I'm not so sure given the resources and payroll flexibility the Red Sox posses that paying Lester market value will "hurt". Unless during the life of the new deal he fails to deliver expected production or sustains a serious injury. Which is true with any player signed to a contract longer than 1 year...

    Moon is far more asute at payroll related topics than I but it stands to reason that in order to remain competitive (defined by being a legit 90 plus win team) and work within the budget. Cherington has to weigh the cause and effect paying one pitcher 25M will have on the amount of moneys he has left to surround that pitcher with both quality and depth In the rotation and bullpen, while maintaining enough to field a deep team to support the staff...

    So with that in mind the key to being able to sign a top of the rotation pitcher to a market value contract. If not Lester than whom? Means you can't pay your 4th and 5th starters 13M each...Which is where guys like Workman, Owens, Ranaundo & Barnes come into to play along with Doubront who is making the league minimum and i believe is still a year or two from being arbitraton eligible? What Cherington and Sox hope is that two or more of them prove to be able to pitch in the big leagues and give the team 200 innings at league minimums and match the expected producton of Peavy and Dempster. Who combined will make 27.75M in 2014....Thus if Doubront continues to prove that he is a legit middle of the rotation starter capable of giving the team 30 starts, 200 innings with a sub 4.50 ERA and one of the above make the jump too, affording Lester or a comparable starter becomes far less of a burden to fielding a deep team and staying with the luxury tax limits. 

    Regarding our prospects again there are many here that have a far better grasp on our prospects than I. Based on what I saw from Workman last year, The kid showed that he has the poise and moixy to pitch in the big leagues has three quality pitches a plus fastball, a nasty hook and a very good changeup....I think he's ready right now to take the ball every five days and compete for a fifth starter role. I was very impressed with his maturity, poise and command on the mound he demonstrated after being called up last year and gave the Sox a couple of quality starts after Buccholz went down. Then after struggling to make the adjustment after being moved to the pen proved to be a very capable late innings reliever and along with Dobrount played a key role in the postseason. Papi won the MVP but IMHO the Sox don't win the World Series without the contributions of Doubront and Workman...

     

     
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