Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    Good Pitchers end losing streaks.




    #3 SP are good pitchers. He is just overrated by RS fans who remember what he did two or three years ago.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

     

    Good Pitchers end losing streaks.

     




    #3 SP are good pitchers. He is just overrated by RS fans who remember what he did two or three years ago.

     



     ... or, underrated by RS fans who only remember what he did one year ago ...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from illinoisredsox. Show illinoisredsox's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In his last three starts Lester has pitching 17.2 innings and surrendered 11 earned runs. Thats  an ERA of 5.60. Prior to that he had pitched exactly four good game this year-following a year where he pitched poorly with an ERA of 4.82. His fastball velocity is down again this year to 91.9, down from 92.0 last year, which was down from 92.6 in 2011, which is down from 93.5 in 2010. See the pattern? Once a pitcher loses velocity off his fastball it is rarely regained, unless that loss is due to injury.

    Unfortunately, he is far from out of the woods. Yes he had a fast start, but today's mediocre performance does little to inspire confidence in him. His prorated ERA for today was 4.50, which is very near the average ERA for the AL. Lester IMO is a serviceable #3 SP, but not more than that. Its certainly tempting to look at his first four games this year and get giddy about his "return to form", but his last three games clearly demonstrate that he is most certainly not out of the woods, no matter how much we all wish he were.

     



    Yesterday was a positive sign. He ended his tailspin. Lets see what he does next start.

     

     



    I don't think that surrendering three earned runs in six innings is a "positive sign". If he did that all year his ERA would be 4.50. In games like that, where you are facing a high quality SP from the other team, you have to limit the opposition to a run or two max. At least thats what #1 pitchers do. Lester failed to do that. Darvish went 7 yesterday surrendering the same number of runs; that extra inning was big. Had Lester done that we would not have had to use Mortensen in the ninth.

     




    You are right; we would have had to use Mortenson in the 10th.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    Lester normally starts out slow, so this start is encouraging to me.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Lester didn't get smoked today.  He made the one bad pitch that resulted in a two-run homer.  That's baseball - a better pitch there and maybe he gives up one run and gets the win.  He also struck out 7 in 6 innings.

     



    Bottom line: he surrendered 3 runs in 6 innings. He DIDN'T make a better pitch. Thats maybe what separates him from becoming a #2 SP; they DO make good pitches more often. Jon Lester is a major reason why I am sticking to my prediction of 81 wins this year.

     



    He doesn't need to become a number two. You have posted statistical proof the he has been atleast a number two. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In his last three starts Lester has pitching 17.2 innings and surrendered 11 earned runs. Thats  an ERA of 5.60. Prior to that he had pitched exactly four good game this year-following a year where he pitched poorly with an ERA of 4.82. His fastball velocity is down again this year to 91.9, down from 92.0 last year, which was down from 92.6 in 2011, which is down from 93.5 in 2010. See the pattern? Once a pitcher loses velocity off his fastball it is rarely regained, unless that loss is due to injury.

    Unfortunately, he is far from out of the woods. Yes he had a fast start, but today's mediocre performance does little to inspire confidence in him. His prorated ERA for today was 4.50, which is very near the average ERA for the AL. Lester IMO is a serviceable #3 SP, but not more than that. Its certainly tempting to look at his first four games this year and get giddy about his "return to form", but his last three games clearly demonstrate that he is most certainly not out of the woods, no matter how much we all wish he were.

     



    Yesterday was a positive sign. He ended his tailspin. Lets see what he does next start.

     

     



    I don't think that surrendering three earned runs in six innings is a "positive sign". If he did that all year his ERA would be 4.50. In games like that, where you are facing a high quality SP from the other team, you have to limit the opposition to a run or two max. At least thats what #1 pitchers do. Lester failed to do that. Darvish went 7 yesterday surrendering the same number of runs; that extra inning was big. Had Lester done that we would not have had to use Mortensen in the ninth.

     



    No this again is unfair. Mortensen still would have pitched because the Sox would have just used in the 10th. Darvish is an Ace. You can look at it one way Lester matched an ace. Or you could look at it in your context Darvish need to become a number 3 pitcher. Your biggest problem is that your argument has no merit because it based the fact you having an opinion, so their for it must be factual. You have not present any stats that show him worse than a two.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    I agree w/ BoSox...i think 4.2 in the AL East is an okay #2.  If this is Lester's downside, we are in good shape.


    I do not agree that 4.20 is good enough to be an "okay #2" in the ALE. That would place him as the fourth best #2 in the ALE right now. Here are the ERAs of the #2 SPs in the ALE:

     

    NYY (Sabathia): 3.31, Rays (Cobb): 2.79, Orioles (Chen): 3.50, and Jays (Morrow): 4.69.

    As you can see, if Lester is at 4.20 he would be much worse than than most of our ALE competition. I hope I am wrong about Lester's upside. I see him more as a #3 at best.




    I think I have the solution to your problems, PG.

    Head North on I-93 until you get to the exit for Rt. 1 North. Take the big turn and go down into the tunnel. When you come out of the tunnel go North toward Danvers until you come to the middle of the bridge. You'll know you're in the right place because there'll be a lot of other cars there too.  Stop there, get out of your car and jump.


    The sky is NOT falling.  This team STILL has the best record in baseball and being swept in one series does not a season (or mediocrity) make.  If this team wins 80-85 games this year they'll meet or exceed the expectations of most of the predictors on this board and IIRC yours too.  This team is what it is -a  team that's winning right now without the marquee players.  Maybe it'll continue and maybe it won't but let's not change our expectations (not to be confused with hopes) just because they got off to a good start. 

    IMO it's a "building year" while we wait for your MiLB players to get ready to play for the parent club.  Making the playoffs is a bonus. 

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    I agree w/ BoSox...i think 4.2 in the AL East is an okay #2.  If this is Lester's downside, we are in good shape.


    I do not agree that 4.20 is good enough to be an "okay #2" in the ALE. That would place him as the fourth best #2 in the ALE right now. Here are the ERAs of the #2 SPs in the ALE:

     

    NYY (Sabathia): 3.31, Rays (Cobb): 2.79, Orioles (Chen): 3.50, and Jays (Morrow): 4.69.

    As you can see, if Lester is at 4.20 he would be much worse than than most of our ALE competition. I hope I am wrong about Lester's upside. I see him more as a #3 at best.

     




    I think I have the solution to your problems, PG.

    Head North on I-93 until you get to the exit for Rt. 1 North. Take the big turn and go down into the tunnel. When you come out of the tunnel go North toward Danvers until you come to the middle of the bridge. You'll know you're in the right place because there'll be a lot of other cars there too.  Stop there, get out of your car and jump.

     


    The sky is NOT falling.  This team STILL has the best record in baseball and being swept in one series does not a season (or mediocrity) make.  If this team wins 80-85 games this year they'll meet or exceed the expectations of most of the predictors on this board and IIRC yours too.  This team is what it is -a  team that's winning right now without the marquee players.  Maybe it'll continue and maybe it won't but let's not change our expectations (not to be confused with hopes) just because they got off to a good start. 

    IMO it's a "building year" while we wait for your MiLB players to get ready to play for the parent club.  Making the playoffs is a bonus. 

     

     



    LOL!

    i said everything i am going to say on this matter on the chat last night so i will leave it at this.

    You are flat out wrong PG.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RSF4Life234. Show RSF4Life234's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    Pumpsie your own numbers prove your fallacy. Lester has a 3.30 era meaning he would easily be a number two or even a number one if the season ended today, because the season doesn't end today its a bad call regardless.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to S5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    I agree w/ BoSox...i think 4.2 in the AL East is an okay #2.  If this is Lester's downside, we are in good shape.


    I do not agree that 4.20 is good enough to be an "okay #2" in the ALE. That would place him as the fourth best #2 in the ALE right now. Here are the ERAs of the #2 SPs in the ALE:

     

    NYY (Sabathia): 3.31, Rays (Cobb): 2.79, Orioles (Chen): 3.50, and Jays (Morrow): 4.69.

    As you can see, if Lester is at 4.20 he would be much worse than than most of our ALE competition. I hope I am wrong about Lester's upside. I see him more as a #3 at best.

     




    I think I have the solution to your problems, PG.

    Head North on I-93 until you get to the exit for Rt. 1 North. Take the big turn and go down into the tunnel. When you come out of the tunnel go North toward Danvers until you come to the middle of the bridge. You'll know you're in the right place because there'll be a lot of other cars there too.  Stop there, get out of your car and jump.

     


    The sky is NOT falling.  This team STILL has the best record in baseball and being swept in one series does not a season (or mediocrity) make.  If this team wins 80-85 games this year they'll meet or exceed the expectations of most of the predictors on this board and IIRC yours too.  This team is what it is -a  team that's winning right now without the marquee players.  Maybe it'll continue and maybe it won't but let's not change our expectations (not to be confused with hopes) just because they got off to a good start. 

    IMO it's a "building year" while we wait for your MiLB players to get ready to play for the parent club.  Making the playoffs is a bonus. 

     

     

     



    LOL!

     

    i said everything i am going to say on this matter on the chat last night so i will leave it at this.

    You are flat out wrong PG.




    yeah, I have a hard time looking at Lester as a middle of the rotation guy. hes a TOTR starter, which is basically a 1 or 2 depending on the team. 4-0 ERA of 3.30 and a WHIP of 1.142. Thats TOTR numbers.

    I can understand that after last year some might want to see a little more to feel like Lester is fully back on track, but I think if you asked every GM if they thought Lester was a TOTR starter (1 or 2) I think everyone would say yes.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Lester didn't get smoked today.  He made the one bad pitch that resulted in a two-run homer.  That's baseball - a better pitch there and maybe he gives up one run and gets the win.  He also struck out 7 in 6 innings.

     



    Bottom line: he surrendered 3 runs in 6 innings. He DIDN'T make a better pitch. Thats maybe what separates him from becoming a #2 SP; they DO make good pitches more often. Jon Lester is a major reason why I am sticking to my prediction of 81 wins this year.

     

     



    He doesn't need to become a number two. You have posted statistical proof the he has been atleast a number two. 

     



    First of all, its not "proof" of anything. Second, if his ERA is what I expect it to be, around 4.20, he would likely be the second worst #2 in the ALE. I am happy you are satisfied with that.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In his last three starts Lester has pitching 17.2 innings and surrendered 11 earned runs. Thats  an ERA of 5.60. Prior to that he had pitched exactly four good game this year-following a year where he pitched poorly with an ERA of 4.82. His fastball velocity is down again this year to 91.9, down from 92.0 last year, which was down from 92.6 in 2011, which is down from 93.5 in 2010. See the pattern? Once a pitcher loses velocity off his fastball it is rarely regained, unless that loss is due to injury.

    Unfortunately, he is far from out of the woods. Yes he had a fast start, but today's mediocre performance does little to inspire confidence in him. His prorated ERA for today was 4.50, which is very near the average ERA for the AL. Lester IMO is a serviceable #3 SP, but not more than that. Its certainly tempting to look at his first four games this year and get giddy about his "return to form", but his last three games clearly demonstrate that he is most certainly not out of the woods, no matter how much we all wish he were.

     



    Yesterday was a positive sign. He ended his tailspin. Lets see what he does next start.

     

     



    I don't think that surrendering three earned runs in six innings is a "positive sign". If he did that all year his ERA would be 4.50. In games like that, where you are facing a high quality SP from the other team, you have to limit the opposition to a run or two max. At least thats what #1 pitchers do. Lester failed to do that. Darvish went 7 yesterday surrendering the same number of runs; that extra inning was big. Had Lester done that we would not have had to use Mortensen in the ninth.

     

     



    No this again is unfair. Mortensen still would have pitched because the Sox would have just used in the 10th. Darvish is an Ace. You can look at it one way Lester matched an ace. Or you could look at it in your context Darvish need to become a number 3 pitcher. Your biggest problem is that your argument has no merit because it based the fact you having an opinion, so their for it must be factual. You have not present any stats that show him worse than a two.

     



    Here is a fact you cannot deny: Lester finished last year with an ERA of 4.82. Here is another one: his fastball velocity has been decreasing every year. Where he will finish this year is anyone's guess, but if you want to make an intelligent guess you look at his most recent large body of work-last year. Now I do not think he will be that bad again, but I am pretty certain he is not going to be much below 4.00. That is no ace in my book. Its too easy to think our guys are better than anyone else's because they are our guys, but the facts about Lester remain: 4.82 ERA last year. Anyone who expects him to lose a full point, IMO, is engaging in wishful thinking.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to trantor's comment:

    Why cherry pick the last three games that skews the ERA with the game where he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings a week ago? Why would you want to do that ( skew).?

    You ignored that two previous starts where he pitvhed 14 innings and allowed 3 earned runs. what is your agenda here Pumpsie? Anyone  troll can cherry pick and skew. How sad that so many here grabbed the bait.  You won. 



    I am not cherry picking anything. His ERA this year is 3.30; thats very good if he can maintain it. Its also a very small sample size, so I prefer to look at a larger sample size of recent work: last year. ERA: 4.82.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In his last three starts Lester has pitching 17.2 innings and surrendered 11 earned runs. Thats  an ERA of 5.60. Prior to that he had pitched exactly four good game this year-following a year where he pitched poorly with an ERA of 4.82. His fastball velocity is down again this year to 91.9, down from 92.0 last year, which was down from 92.6 in 2011, which is down from 93.5 in 2010. See the pattern? Once a pitcher loses velocity off his fastball it is rarely regained, unless that loss is due to injury.

    Unfortunately, he is far from out of the woods. Yes he had a fast start, but today's mediocre performance does little to inspire confidence in him. His prorated ERA for today was 4.50, which is very near the average ERA for the AL. Lester IMO is a serviceable #3 SP, but not more than that. Its certainly tempting to look at his first four games this year and get giddy about his "return to form", but his last three games clearly demonstrate that he is most certainly not out of the woods, no matter how much we all wish he were.

     



    Yesterday was a positive sign. He ended his tailspin. Lets see what he does next start.

     

     



    I don't think that surrendering three earned runs in six innings is a "positive sign". If he did that all year his ERA would be 4.50. In games like that, where you are facing a high quality SP from the other team, you have to limit the opposition to a run or two max. At least thats what #1 pitchers do. Lester failed to do that. Darvish went 7 yesterday surrendering the same number of runs; that extra inning was big. Had Lester done that we would not have had to use Mortensen in the ninth.

     

     



    No this again is unfair. Mortensen still would have pitched because the Sox would have just used in the 10th. Darvish is an Ace. You can look at it one way Lester matched an ace. Or you could look at it in your context Darvish need to become a number 3 pitcher. Your biggest problem is that your argument has no merit because it based the fact you having an opinion, so their for it must be factual. You have not present any stats that show him worse than a two.

     

     



    Here is a fact you cannot deny: Lester finished last year with an ERA of 4.82. Here is another one: his fastball velocity has been decreasing every year. Where he will finish this year is anyone's guess, but if you want to make an intelligent guess you look at his most recent large body of work-last year. Now I do not think he will be that bad again, but I am pretty certain he is not going to be much below 4.00. That is no ace in my book. Its too easy to think our guys are better than anyone else's because they are our guys, but the facts about Lester remain: 4.82 ERA last year. Anyone who expects him to lose a full point, IMO, is engaging in wishful thinking.

     



    Lester's velocity is not decreasing - if anything it's up a tick from last year http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P&pitch=FA

    Losing a full point would bring him back to where he was in 2011 - slightly worse.  Why is that outlandish?

    Lester's road ERA was 3.20 last year, BTW.  I think a lot of his struggle was mental.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    After today Lester's ERA is still only 3.30. 

     



    And I hope it stays that way. But more than likely, based on what he did last year and the drop in his velocity, it will balloon.

     



    No loss in velocity.  92.4 this year and 92.5 for his career.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    Lester didn't get smoked today.  He made the one bad pitch that resulted in a two-run homer.  That's baseball - a better pitch there and maybe he gives up one run and gets the win.  He also struck out 7 in 6 innings.

     



    Bottom line: he surrendered 3 runs in 6 innings. He DIDN'T make a better pitch. Thats maybe what separates him from becoming a #2 SP; they DO make good pitches more often. Jon Lester is a major reason why I am sticking to my prediction of 81 wins this year.

     



    If you are going to use one game as a sample size, it should be noted that the game was at Texas.  Texas at home over the last 1.2 years is averaging about 5.5 RPG.  So lester kept them one run below their norm.  That is about where lester is supposed to work-one run better than league average.  At this small  a sample size, Lester is a #3 because a weak grounder gets through the IF.  If the ball is caught, then he only gives up 2 runs and becomes a premier pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 at TX.

    Once you get to that point, it becomes meaningless.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    After today Lester's ERA is still only 3.30. 

     



    And I hope it stays that way. But more than likely, based on what he did last year and the drop in his velocity, it will balloon.

     

     



    No loss in velocity.  92.4 this year and 92.5 for his career.

     



    His fastball velocity is now at 92, same as last year. When I looked it up yesterday it read what I wrote. They must have updated it.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to trantor's comment:

    How many quality starts Lester have? All but one, right.?




    Quality starts are a joke

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

     

    After today Lester's ERA is still only 3.30. 

     



    And I hope it stays that way. But more than likely, based on what he did last year and the drop in his velocity, it will balloon.

     

     



    No loss in velocity.  92.4 this year and 92.5 for his career.

     

     



    His fastball velocity is now at 92, same as last year. When I looked it up yesterday it read what I wrote. They must have updated it.

     



    The first indication that a sample size is insufficient is when one sample skews your result.  Like I mentioned with the ground ball, if one grounder makes the difference between it being a very good outing, or a mediocre outing, it really isn't worth mentioning to start with.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    How many quality starts Lester have? All but one, right.?

     




    Quality starts are a joke

     

    Not really.  It is one way of discounting the outliers.  If someone has a horrible outing, say 11 ERs in 3 IPs, his overall ERA will stink, but if he has a QS in all other starts, then he has done a good job.

     
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